He’ll have a much better chance if the ground is on the good side of soft/watered.
“ He only ever does enough. I think the Grand National would be more up his street than the Gold Cup to be honest - Gordon Elliott, trainer.”
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
prince regent (17th October 2021)
"I'd never sit on a dead horse" - Gordon Elliott, trainer.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Galvin apparently up to 159. Handicapper taking a bit of a chance, imo.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Desert Orchid (14th October 2021)
The other thing about the run the other day is that it qualifies him to run in the GN, unlike the other Elliott horse Noble Endeavor who ended up missing it first time round.
In theory they can afford to run Galvin down the park a couple of times and maybe get him back down to 154 in time for the weights coming out in mid-February.
Alternatively, if they're happy with 159 they can campaign him in such a way as to win diddy races without affecting his mark.
Illegitimi non carborundum
That approach doesn't make much sense to me, as it relies on hoping his mark drops back to where it was previously in his subsequent runs....which would need to be in steeplechases anyway if they were to 'help' his mark.
They'd surely have been better running in something like the Durkan over an inadequate trip, and seeing his mark drop whilst still nailing the 'must have run in a chase this season' qualifier. Either that, or adopt the usual approach, and wait until the weights are out, before running in a chase (he wouldn't be short on opportunities).
If the National is the long-term target, there's really no logic to entering him yesterday, and then allowing him to run on his merits.....unless the €16K was important, and I can scarcely believe that's the case.
It's a real puzzler, but it suggests (to me) that they're trying to figure out if they've got a genuine Gold Cup horse on their hands, whilst trying to keep a lid on expectations - hence the Nash still being touted as the 'official' target.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 15th October 2021 at 8:59 AM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Desert Orchid (14th October 2021)
Has him on 159 here, highlighted horses are those whose ratings have changed since last Monday, maybe this is a new initiative.
https://www.hri-ras.ie/ihrb-handicap...ll-nh-ratings/
Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 14th October 2021 at 6:43 PM.
"The owls are not what they seem"
HRI have done it for a few years now, usually with horses rated on the bottom grades it is more relevant so may have passed you by !
With better horses you get to pick your race but with poorer out of form horses ( if they had any to begin with) HRI pick the races for you !
I accept that long-range weather forecasts by their very nature cannot be accurate but the one I've been checking appears to be suggesting that the UK will undergo a largely dry and sunny (therefore cold) winter right through to the end of March.
If this is how it pans out it might make for a weird season with watering being the norm to avoid fast ground.
It will be interesting to see just how (in)accurate the forecast is.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Grasshopper (17th October 2021)
Eklat De Rire starts his season today in Wexford, where he seems to have a reasonably straightforward opportunity in the Listed 3m chase. Makes sense to set his sights lower than the Down Royal Grade 1, given his very limited chase experience to date.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
I think Conflated can win that. He has race fitness on his side and the trip is on the short side for both Eklat and The Big Boat, sorry Dog.
Three miles in Heavy ground is perfectly fine for the jolly I reckon, Euro, and he won his maiden chase after a break of 278 days. Hard to beat, imo.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Eklat De Rire did it well enough.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Had a rather naughty ew on Conflated. The non runner fucked that plan up.
40/1 still which is fair enough I'd say.
I like his profile for a Gold Cup though. The Gold Cup is won by young season chasers these days, usually with virtually no miles on the clock.
The first and second last year had a war, and often they're not the same horse the following season. Good novices are also thin on the ground this year.
If he comes over here for the Hennessy we get to find out how good he may be. If you've got him at 66/1 earlier or 40/1 now he's easy to cash out with no damage if he's not up to scratch. FWIW I think he will, and won't be out of place come March.
The one concern is that no Gold Cup winner for years has won when it's run at any point in the season on Heavy, as it was yesterday at Wexford.