Agincourt is way overs for the Duke of Cambridge for a mare that was 2nd in the race last year.
Agincourt is way overs for the Duke of Cambridge for a mare that was 2nd in the race last year.
tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito
I have no strong fancies for tomorrow but since it is Ascot I decided to put a fiver ew on 3 of the tips on here and do a £2.50ew tribe before doing a proper study tomorrow. I went to sites of 3 of the largest bookies, all of which I have an account. The maximum stake I was allowed was in ascending order. £0.21, £0.43 and £0.71.
It would be nice to think that I am such a successful punter that they are worried. Nice, but definitely untrue. ****ing ridiculous!
I have no strong fancies for tomorrow but since it is Ascot I decided to put a fiver ew on 3 of the tips on here and do a £2.50ew trixie before doing a proper study tomorrow. I went to sites of 3 of the largest bookies, all of which I have an account. The maximum stake I was allowed was in ascending order. £0.21, £0.43 and £0.71.
It would be nice to think that I am such a successful punter that they are worried. Nice, but definitely untrue. ****ing ridiculous!
I have no idea how their algorithms work.
I recently got a message from Betfair telling me I was no longer allowed any special offers (which I presume means extra places, BOGs etc) but at least they haven't restricted me on ordinary bets. Betvictor removed the BOGs etc a couple of years ago and I just can't get a bet of any sort - I'm talking pennies - with Betfred, which is the weirdest of the lot since I so seldom bet with them and don't recall ever taking any serious money off them.
I have to say fair play to Bet365. They have never restricted me even after I landed a 20/1 x 16/1 double a few years back, taking thousands off them. They're the firm that recently voided my Safe Voyage ante-post bet for the Queen Anne.
I suspect some bookies' systems pick up on patterns re following certain influential sources etc but I don't have any access to any such sources (that I would be willing to betray, at least) and 99% of my bets are based on my own ratings and instincts.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Battaash may be a 7yo, but I have him head and shoulders above these.
General 2/1 looks cash in the bank.
A few thoughts ahead of some of the more interesting [for me] races today (odds references as of 6-7am Monday, when I wrote the pieces):
Queen Anne:
Taking them in order of their appearance in the table (my ratings), Palace Pier (4/9) is impossible oppose unless you reckon the fast ground might be an issue for him. No doubt they’ll err on the side of over-watering so I wouldn’t be too concerned myself. Lord Glitters (20/1) and Regal Reality (22/1) are longer than their form entitles them to be and I wouldn’t put anyone off an EW bet on either. I might settle for the old racing cliché of a watching brief. At the moment, only two bookies (at oddschecker) are offering the ‘betting without Palace Pier’ market, Bet365 and Hills. The latter’s market is win only with LG (8/1) and RR (9/1) dutching at just under 4/1. I might think about that. Sir Busker (25/1) strikes me as the big improver in the race if you assume his two runs this season were to keep him under the radar for this. He didn’t run his race in soft here (hung badly left) but had previously been beaten only 1½L off 111 on the wrong side in the Cambridgeshire when he didn’t get home and before that was second in the white-hot Clipper Logistics at York to Montatham with Top Rank back in third and Golden Mile winner Prompting in fourth. That’s just about the best mile handicap form of last season. 10/1 each-way without the favourite is another possible angle for him. I’m not sure Order Of Australia’s (6/1) form can be taken at face value. He was a 107 plodder until he went abroad last backend when he won the Breeders’ Cup Mile at 40/1 and was a fair sixth in the Hong Kong Mile. It’s possible he was the only decent horse suited by the very fast ground at Keeneland so maybe the watering will be against him. Accidental Agent (66/1 and likely to drift) did us a proper turn in 2018 but would need Palace Pier to run like Benbatl did that day. He did beat Lord Glitters, though, so I might have some sentimental shekels on him at the best possible terms.
King's Stand:
Battaash (15/8) looks another for the punters and I’m gobsmacked that he’s odds against, let alone nearly 2/1. I’ve read in places that he’s opposable because he’s been injured but I’d be prepared to swat away those concerns as readily as I’d expect the horse to swat away his opponents. I’m not sure about Oxted (15/2) back in trip and I’m against Winter Power (9/2) because of her age. Not too many 3yos try for this and their only success in recent years was Lady Aurelia who was very mature. Que Amoro (14/1) is probably a decent each-way pop and I’m intrigued that Dettori (Extravagant Kid, 8/1) may have rejected a Ward runner in favour another US raider.
SJP:
Poetic Flare (4/1) heads the market at a reasonable enough price but the ratings point to the paucity in class in the field. It’s more of a glorified handicap. I’m surprised to see Mostadhaf (9/2) so high in the betting. That’s got to be on reputation more than evidence. Dettori is no doubt waiting for Coolmore to offer him the best of whichever Moore rejects and I’ll probably have to have some sickness insurance on the first-time tongue-tied Battleground (13/2) which was backed late into favouritism for the 2000 Guineas but failed to act on the track. The favourite and Lucky Vega (15/2) are fair markers for the race but the overall lack of strength in depth opens up the possibility of something improving past them all. It’s more of a race to watch.
Ascot Stakes:
I don’t feel too much enthusiasm for this renewal, maybe because of all the hurdlers involved. Not too many Flat horses truly stay this trip but not many of the hurdlers are stayers either. I’ve taken Elysian Flame 16/1 (7pl) ew to a pretty hefty stake. I was very taken by its defeat of Almighwar and it was badly hampered at the start in the Chester Plate and then hampered again and forced wide when making a move two out. It might have given Green Book a race and might be a winner without a penalty. The extra places are a huge help from a punting angle.
Wolferton:
This is another glorified handicap. The top three are probably the strongest candidates so it’s as much a question whichever runs its race as anything else. At 14/1 Fox Tal is probably a decent each-way prospect. Patrick Sarsfield (4/1) heads the market ahead of Solid Stone (5/1). A few bookies are going four places with Sky offering five. I’ve taken Fox Tal with them at the price and will stick there.
Copper Horse Hcap:
If Saldier (3/1) doesn’t translate his hurdles form back to the Flat this could be a hugely competitive race which could come down to readiness, jockeyship, luck in running or a permutation of them. If Saldier does translate his hurdles form it could be a one-horse race. I’ve taken the price in anticipation of the latter and a shortening in his price to less than 2/1. Sam Cooke (20/1, eliminated) will have a shout if he gets in, in which case I’ll be taking that price. Hyanna (25/1) and Hochfeld’s (18/1) ratings are from the pick of last season’s form and they are overpriced too. It could be a smashing race, a good betting one and form to follow.
Illegitimi non carborundum
edgt (15th June 2021), NewApproach (15th June 2021), Outsider (15th June 2021)
In case people don't know Paddy have a £5 free bet on the 2.30 and Bet365 a £5 free bet on any race. Obviously if you're bonus banned you won't get them
jinnyj (15th June 2021)
Elysian flame 500a 14/1 7 places sky. My best of the day.
2017diary (15th June 2021)
Welcome back, Outsider.
I see the money is there today for both Richard Hannon runners, (Gisburn now fav for the Coventry, and Chindit a mover later on). They'll do for me. Big day for the stable.
Last edited by Marb; 15th June 2021 at 11:01 AM.
Outsider (15th June 2021)
Like the move for Chindit.
Wtf happened to Kaufeymaker in the Coventry. I was chomping at the bit for the day of race market for a juicy place lay and the frigger has drifted like a barge.
Been badly out of form of late. Here’s a few I have been hmmming over!
Lope y Fernandez is a bit of a cliff horse of mine
Always love the Coventry and usually wait until I see them in the paddock - on short list are:
Caturra - never underestimate a Clive Cox 2yo especially as it was well touted before its debut. Not bothered it went to Bath to break its Maiden as trainer often does that.
The Acropolis - trainer seems to Farm this race and it’s often the best bred colt that wins this
Tolstoy - again very nicely bred and should thereabouts
Used my free bet (thanks Col for reminder) on Battaash and had a little ew on Que Amoro
STP - Battleground is another cliff horse and I am going to stick with him
Ascot Stakes in invariably won by a NH trainer isn’t it?! So I have gone for Rayapour ew to support Adam and maybe Lucky Deal in first time blinkers
Wolferton is a bit of a head scratcher so far...again probably wait until last minute. Possibles are Forest of Dean, Juan Eleanor, Solid Stone
Last I have gone for Galata Bridge ew and possibly Sleeping Lion who does seem to be improving for switch of yards.
Good luck all and have a grand week
tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito
Lope is being slagged off and maybe rightly so on balance but he is a fast ground animal who has form on this straight track. I've place laid Forest of Dean. Dettori will be gassed out by the time this is run and he won't ride out for 3/4th
Royal Ascot I usually follow Jamie Spenser off a cliff; today is no different but for minimum stake ew patent.
Anadin (15th June 2021)
Last minute DF to back up my ew Lope so happy enough with that.
tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito
Easily enough but maybe not like a 2/7 shot for Palace Pier. I have enough on the double with Battaash to cover just about all of my bets for the day so, unusually for me, I'll be rooting for a shortie.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Not a bad performance from Berkshire Shadow there. Maybe a bit too early to tell what the form amounts to but the Coventry form is usually decent.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Mmmm. I am not sure if I was totally sold on it form wise (probably because mine didn’t figure ). Thought the fav was a bit weak physically.
tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito
Panned out perfectly for Oxted.
All comers, all grounds, all beaten!
This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.