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Thread: The Arc 2021

  1. #61
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    Another group one today for last year's second in the Yorkshire Oaks Alpinista.

    When you think that Love beat Alpinista five lengths in that Yorkshire Oaks, while Alpinista has won four out of five races since.

    Unfortunately I don't feel we've seen the very best of Love this season.

    Who would have thought she'd be a 33/1 chance for the Arc 2021?
    Last edited by Marb; 26th September 2021 at 6:49 PM.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Another group one today for last year's second in the Yorkshire Oaks Alpinista.

    When you think that Love beat Alpinista five lengths in that Yorkshire Oaks, while Alpinista has won four out of five races since.

    Unfortunately I don't feel we've seen the very best of Love this season.

    Who would have thought she'd be a 33/1 chance for the Arc 2021?
    Cheers, Marb - taken a small slice@ 33/1

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  4. #63
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've had a nibble at the Japanese horse (mare, to be precise). 10/1, top-rated on RPRs ahead of Adayar and Hurricane Lane so has to be a decent enough tool.

    Edit - it was top when I looked earlier. I now see Adayar and Snowfall are rated slightly higher but both are noted as requiring to be supplemented. I wonder if they were left out earlier for that reason or if my page just opened up a wee bit off the top.

    Either way, I'm ok with the 10/1 for now. She was only a neck off Mishriff at Meydan in the spring despite being bumped and carried off line.

    (And mares do have a good record in the race.)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 27th September 2021 at 2:22 PM.
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    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Interesting that Frankie blames Snowfall's poor show in Yesterday's Vermeille on the steady pace set by Hollie Doyle (today's RP) amd, here's me, thinking that the person in the plate was responsible for how quickly a horse went.
    Much more likely; he knew the filly wasn't fully primed for the race, and rode her accordingly.
    Oh, what a tangled web Coolmore weave.........
    Thought I’d resurrect this one, reet. After that you said agreed, but the point is; he was being a tad disingenous about Snowfall's effort, and it may be mistaken to write her off her Arc chances on the strength of it..so far as I can tell no-one in the pundit brigade appears to have listened to you and I’m amazed that she barely rates a mention. She’s probably been trained for the Arc, after all, not the bloody Vermeille.

    So, if she’s supplemented watch out!
    Last edited by barjon; 28th September 2021 at 10:17 AM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm toying with the idea of taking 40/1 Sealiway. It's only because two or three bookies aren't quoting him that's holding me back since it might mean he won't run but he was only a neck behind SMB in the French Derby and could still be a bit of a dark horse who might even improve for the step up in trip.
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  8. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Thought I’d resurrect this one, reet. After that you said agreed, but the point is; he was being a tad disingenous about Snowfall's effort, and it may be mistaken to write her off her Arc chances on the strength of it..so far as I can tell no-one in the pundit brigade appears to have listened to you and I’m amazed that she barely rates a mention. She’s probably been trained for the Arc, after all, not the bloody Vermeille.

    So, if she’s supplemented watch out!
    Her odds suggest she has hardly been forgotten!
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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  10. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Her odds suggest she has hardly been forgotten!
    They also suggest she'll be RM's chosen.

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    Snowfall has never beaten another Group 1 horse and her trainer has never won it with a 3yo. She should be double figures.

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    None of which means she hasn't been aimed at the race?

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    I don't know what you're getting at. We are supposed to excuse the shitshow of the Vermeille as it was a stepping stone to the Arc?

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    Are you seriously suggesting that sitting out the back, off a slow pace, was rhe best way to ride Snowfall?
    Last edited by reet hard; 28th September 2021 at 8:49 PM.

  15. #72
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    They also suggest she'll be RM's chosen.
    No brainer he rides Snowfall.

    If Adayar rocks up!
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    I still believe Adayar is the class horse in the race, and has the potential to get even better (so, it would seem, do connections).
    However, can't resist a small ew on Alenqer @ 25/1 (needs cut, ideally) in the belief he's been trained with this race in mnd.
    Last edited by reet hard; 29th September 2021 at 9:29 AM.

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    My thoughts exactly Reet and despite already being on Adayar at 6/1 and 11/2 I was just coming on to say I think Alenquer is now the value in the race.

    Too much can be read into his defeat of Adayar at Sandown but it's clear he wants cut, which one would fully expect being by German sire Adlerflug and valid reasons can be give for his last two defeats.

    He missed the break in the Grand Prix de Paris but finished roughly the same distance behind the winner as he was throughout the race. He didn't make any real inroads into the winners advantage but conversely he didn't lose any ground either and it's arguable that with a better break and being ridden more prominently he could have given the winner something to think about and yet he's 5 times the price of Hurricane Lane.

    In the international he finished 2nd to officially the world's best 10f racehorse over a trip too short on ground most likely too lively. He was stronger hitting the line than anything bar the winner and the extra c. 2f and juice in the ground is only going to help him.

    He strikes me as the sort of horse who'll have difficulty overcoming a bad draw so a bit of luck later in the week is required in that department but given that, the 25/1 or even 28/1 and 33/1 with smaller firms makes plenty of appeal, especially if that price holds up when the enhanced place terms are offered.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 29th September 2021 at 10:42 AM.
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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Good shout that. I was looking back on past Arcs and when Treve and Enable won it as 4yo's there were no decent 3yo colts in oppo. Is that enough to be against the Weld mare? Maybe. I feel it may go to an outsider. Happy that Rabihaah has been confirmed as on target for the race.

    Looking at the other races over the weekend I like:
    Trueshan - Cadran
    Audarya - Opera
    Njord - Foret (20s is huge)

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  21. #76
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    Alenquer beautifully drawn in stall 8 and had to shop around and spread bets but managed to get 33/1 3 places.

    28/1 is available elsewhere but typically 3 places although 4 places is out there if you're lucky enough to receive price boosts with Laddies.

    Pretty certain there'll be better place terms on the day but if the expected rain comes he won't be double carpet.
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  22. #77
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    I'm hoping the ground doesn't get too heavy.

    Love is an interesting filly as she's never ran on testing conditions. I don't dispute she won't want heavy and it seems her participation would be in doubt if it came up heavy ground.

    I'm hoping for no worse than soft.

    I'm also hoping she might handle soft ground better than anticipated as after all she's never run on it.

    She's by a Pivotal mare so theres definately some hope for Love on soft.
    Last edited by Marb; 30th September 2021 at 3:14 PM.

  23. #78
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm toying with the idea of taking 40/1 Sealiway. It's only because two or three bookies aren't quoting him that's holding me back since it might mean he won't run but he was only a neck behind SMB in the French Derby and could still be a bit of a dark horse who might even improve for the step up in trip.
    Declared for the race so I've gone in at 40s. Any rain will help.
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  24. #79
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Alenquer beautifully drawn in stall 8 and had to shop around and spread bets but managed to get 33/1 3 places.

    28/1 is available elsewhere but typically 3 places although 4 places is out there if you're lucky enough to receive price boosts with Laddies.

    .
    I have told a friend, who knows nothing about racing but is desperate to empty her paddypower account, to back him each way.
    Not like you she says to volunteer ( usually nags me for tips or backs anything named anything vaguely Scottish, or Betty's Belle the other day as her puppy called Betsy Belle, it was close and by Schiaparelli whose offspring we keep an eye on ) , no I know I say but as the more learned on here saying, ground and will have stamina to stay. Not saying he will win but must have a chance especially with no one coming into really on recent fire/comments of niggles.....
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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  26. #80
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    Adayar does look good to me.but I like a bit of a bigger price so I've gone for RAABIHAH 25/1 although hes drawn in the car park.
    On his beating of one of Jessie's puts it on par with that irish horse beginning with T.ive only just been looking and already forgot their names.lol.

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