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Thread: Juvenile Hurdlers 2021/22

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    Alrighty. Last week was a bit of a clusterfunk, but by the grace of dog, I have would up in a homeless shelter which is, frankly, a fantastic relief. In one of life's ironies, despite being technically homeless, this place with a roof, door and relative stability already feels more like a home than anywhere else I have stayed for the past few years. In another one of life's ironies, while at Durham I was very much "ghetto as f***" on account of my upbringing and past, it tickles me that I am now in danger of being a conspicuously "Durham twat". Still, with this sense of grounding comes a foundation on which to build other areas of my life and most importantly, the ability to put more concentration into this absurd little project. Hurrah! So yeah, let's get right back up to date with the reviews and preview.

    STRATFORD 29th July
    Preview review
    The first three came from the first four in the prospects lists. The winner was second on the list and while his tendency to pull hard was not enough to prevent success, it noted in the preview. The underperformance of Crane was also highlighted in the preview. The gap between Fred Bear and Oneonechop was wider than it should have been - particularly as the latter's stamina was still an unresolved concern. Given that Stratford's more testing nature was also mentioned, this matter should have been given more weight. Notwithstanding, worse previews have been written.

    Race review
    The hurdles form brought into this contest was nothing out of the ordinary. Nevertheless, there were two decently rated recruits from the flat, albeit with patchy profiles, representing top yards that had the potential to be comparatively useful types if making the switch to their new vocation. In the event, one of these ran out a comfortable winner despite struggling to settle for much of the contest. According to RP, the winning time was said to be 5.71 seconds slower than that recorded in the mares' handicap hurdle on the same card. However, as the early pace was comparable and the run-in was nearly a second quicker in the juvenile hurdle, this provoked an independent assessment using the pause key and a stopwatch. As it transpires, Timeform's time - which had the handicap ran in a time 1.20 seconds quicker - is much more likely to be accurate. Consequently, taking into account the weights carried along with WFA, the pace set was a reasonable one and the winning time one of the more respectable ones seen to date this term. The overall quality of jumping was not great, and the first two each raced freely. Nevertheless, they had every right to fill those positions on paper and with distances of seven and nineteen lengths splitting the first three, the form would still have a solid shape.

    Caramelised was the first juvenile hurdler of the season for Alan King and, on BHA figures, the highest rated recruit seen to date. There was a concern about an inability to settle which manifested in the contest itself as he pulled hard up to the point he was sent for home. Held up in touch from the outset, he moved to track the leaders going out onto the second circuit and travelled nicely to challenge for the lead entering the straight. Shaken up to take a length advantage on the approach to the last, it took no more than a hands and heels drive to quickly extend his lead and cross the line seven lengths to the good. Caramelised posted a safe round of jumping without being consistently fluent as he was slightly skewed at the first, big over the second, steep at the third, reached at the sixth and, while it did not cost him momentum, rather hopped over the final flight. Caramelised will need to settle better if he is to go up in grade, and Alan King will almost certainly have stronger types in any case. Nevertheless, this was a pleasing debut performance overall and is probably the strongest seen to date. Should his jumping improve with experience, he can collect a few more prizes while the pool is still shallow. 105

    Fred Bear had failed to get within ten lengths of the winner in four flat outings. Nevertheless, his pedigree and connections suggested better could come over hurdles and with two promising efforts at Newton Abbot under his belt, he began the race as 9/4 favourite from a morning show of 7/2. Sent straight into the lead from flagfall, Fred Bear raced freely for much of the contest, and while his hurdling improved between his first two outings, he was not quite so clean here. Along with steadying at a few hurdles, he also got in close to the first, fourth and sixth as well as having a slight tendency to wander on the approach. These flaws were not massively detrimental to his performance and though he conceded the lead shortly after the turn for home, proving no match for the winner, he still had upwards of nineteen lengths in hand over the remainder. This marks a new career best and although his official mark of 105 is harsh based on his actual accomplishments, he can continue to hold his own at this level. 96

    Oneonechop was a six time winner in France and his equivalent rating of 79 puts him well above the typical recruit for the time of year (although it is roughly par for French imports). He had faded tamely on his British/hurdling debut at this venue eighteen days earlier. However, he finished with much more purpose and was arguably worried out of a better position when third at Newton Abbot just behind Fred Bear. Cheekpieces were applied for his return to Stratford and he was steady in the market throughout the day. His previous efforts over hurdles have been marked by respectable jumping and apart from hopping over the first and getting steady and somewhat close at the third and fourth, his round was solid enough once again. Tracking the leader from the outset, he was fairly free in the early stages but not enough to warrant concern. However, he began to come under pressure going over the hill before the home turn and had lost his position by the time he reached the straight. Oneonechop was able to hold on for third, but it can be said with confidence that his stamina limitations were exposed here. While he has the ability to win a race over hurdles, it would have to come in the sharpest of circumstances. 77

    Dark Motive finished her stint with Ralph Beckett a 58 rated six race maiden. Being a daughter of Motivator from the family of Prospect Wells, her pedigree warranted some respect and on the evidence of her flat career, stamina was assured. Racing in midfield, she made numerous errors during the contest and did not have the pace to get involved. Ultimately beaten twenty-seven lengths, if Dark Motive is to become competitive in the sphere, it is more likely to be further down the road than any time soon. 69

    Nazwa shaped with promise on his sole flat outing for David Simcock back in February. However, while there are decent sorts on the damline, the sire has yet to taste success in the sphere and his capable trainer is usually quiet around this time of year. Easy to back in the market, Nazwa raced mostly in the rear making only minor headway on the approach to the home turn. He made several novicey errors and while he is entitled to come on for the outing, more will be needed in the short term. 68

    Crane was a winner on the flat as a two-year-old and joined a leading trainer in Nicky Henderson for his new hurdling career. After drifting from 9/4 to 3/1 in the morning, Crane was trimmed back into 11/4 to start the race as second favourite. However, while he was settled reasonably well and was in a good position behind the leaders, he was let down quite considerably by his jumping. Big and slow to get away from the first, he was slightly close to the second, steady and close at the third, and tight over the next three - the sixth he rather hopped over. Under pressure and losing ground from thereon, he was slow over the last and finished the race nearly forty lengths behind the winner. Poor jumping contributed to his undoing, although his stamina is also up for question and his pedigree did not give great cause for optimism beforehand in any case. His representing Nicky Henderson will keep him of interest over the coming weeks and months. However, it can be noted that none of the trainer's eight juveniles who finished outside of the front five first time out was able to score at the second time of asking. 66

    Sentilly was twice beaten by over thirty lengths on the flat during the winter and her hurdles campaign has started no better. Always towards the rear, her jumping was novicey throughout and she jumped the last tired as she was beaten by fifty-one lengths. 46

    Vamoos pulled up on his debut over this course and distance eighteen days earlier. Keen from the outset, he jumped poorly before veering left and unshipping Tom Bellamy at the third. He continued to jump in such a fashion while running loose and has thus far, shown no aptitude for the discipline. 0

    MARKET RASEN 1st August
    Preview review
    I was in the process of doing the preview, had the spreadsheet and pedigrees ready and was about to write out the profiles when I was abruptly evicted. The winner would most probably have been given the strong prospects as his hurdles form was the strongest and the expected improvement left him with something in hand over the newcomers. A market check would have been suggested for the McCain debutant as the yard has already sent out a winning unraced juvenile this term. The Bravest had chances on his two-year-old form but had beaten just one of his twelve rivals this year. The ratings given in previous previews would have gained another one for the win column and incidentally, going by the amount of above average figures for trainers, sires, damsires, families and the damsires' records as sires, the field finished in the precise order - although the clues for the £46.20 trifecta would not have mentioned which makes it a moot point. Notwithstanding, the processes used throughout the ongoing assessments would not have warranted any revisiting on the basis this result.

    Race review
    Evaluating this race is not an entirely straightforward as the times on the card throw a spanner in the works. Going off a strict and rigid comparison with the maiden hurdle held half an hour later, Langafel's winning time was almost three seconds quicker which roughly equates to fifteen lengths. The runner-up in the maiden was beaten a length and a half, carried a pound less than Langafel and was rated 110. 110 + 15 + 1 + 15 (weight for age) gives Langafel a performance rating of 141. This is patently ludicrous and along with the early pace being quicker in the juvenile hurdle, the standard time was also the second slowest over obstacles on the card. Going by visual indicators, most of the field settled quite well although the overall quality of jumping left plenty to be desired - particularly from the 80/1 shot who was beaten less than nine lengths in third. In all, the race was probably not of a high standard and while the front two are respectable sorts, the form may not be especially strong or reliable.

    Langafel failed to reach the frame in five attempts on the flat and ended his initial spell under that code with a rating of 55. Nevertheless, this son of Fast Company is with a trainer who does well with juveniles and Langafel made a winning debut over hurdles at Newton Abbot forty-one days earlier. He had been taken out of a race at that venue two weeks prior to this race on account of the good-to-firm ground, but while 'firm' appeared in the description here, he was still allowed to take his chance. Starting the day at 4/7, he drifted out to evens before being clipped in to 10/11 at the off. In contrast to Newton Abbot where he raced keenly and made errors at each flight, Langafel settled much better here, tracking the free-running leader while maintaining his own sensible tempo. His hurdling was also much neater by comparison, his flaws being getting tight and skewing over the first, giving a bit of air at the third, going through the top of the fifth and hitting the penultimate flight. Langafel challenged the leader at the three furlong marker and as his rival faded, he carried a two length lead along the straight which was only marginally eroded by the green runner-up. Langafel did not achieve anything out of the ordinary here, but he continues to improve and in the right race and potentially with softer ground, he could be up to defying a double penalty. 99

    Corporal Jones, a £23,000 purchase at last year's Tattersalls Ireland Breeze Up, came into this race without any racecourse experience. His profile was not without substance as War Command has a couple of winners in the sphere, his dam was a winning hurdler, his half-brother won a juvenile hurdle and useful sorts Four Sox (3/1), Joke Dancer (3/1) and Singapore Belle (4/1) appear on the damline (as does Asterion Forlonge at 5/4). His trainer has already sent out a winning debutant juvenile and while not a plunge exactly , Corporal Jones was backed from a morning 7/2 to a steady in-ring 11/4. Understandably, for a debutant, Corporal Jones showed signs of greenness, although it was more conspicuous than alarming. He raced keenly while tracking the leaders in the early stages, but had managed to settle better along the back stretch. His jumping was novicey and he made errors of one minor fashion or another at most flights. He was able to follow the winner when he made his move at the distance, but did not have enough to make any real inroads until the final fifty yards where the race was already put to bed. All told, it was a respectable debut effort and though the performance merely places him in the top third of juveniles seen this far, the expected improvement would make him a threat in ordinary company. 91

    Subtle Innuendo achieved very little in two starts over seven furlongs at Ayr and Newcastle last year, and was making his return after a near three hundred day layoff. There was no confidence behind him in the markets, although there were hints of promise in his pedigree as he is bred to get the trip, his sire and damsire have solid records in the sphere, and the damline contains winning handicapper War Party (2/1) and 1982 French Champion Hurdler World Citizen (4/1). Held up towards the rear, Subtle Innuendo was somewhat fresh in the early stages, although his jumping gave cause for greater concern. After being baulked on landing at the first, he was steady before hitting the second, slow over the next two, was untidy when hitting the penultimate flight and not much cleaner over the last. While he did not look like posing a threat, he was still in there pitching in the straight, but his errors allowed the front pair to leave him behind. Subtle Innuendo's profile suggests he should be suited by the discipline and although he has no designs on greatness, he could be competitive in moderate company should he learn from this experience. 85

    The Bravest began the year with a rating of 71 which came courtesy of a narrow second in a Pontefract nursery during the Autumn. He failed to show on his reappearance but his sixth of seven three weeks earlier was at least a step in the right direction. A son of Jukebox Jury (four winning juveniles from nine prior to this race) and a nephew of the useful Townshend, The Bravest represented a yard with a solid record in the sphere and was the best backed horse in the race - starting at 16/5 having been available at 7/1 during the morning. However, his jumping was very poor in the early stages as he skewed quite erratically over the first four flights. His jumping marginally improved from there and after leaving the back in last position, he made some headway on the home turn. However, was unable to maintain his progress and was never dangerous. Beaten thirteen lengths in the end, The Bravest is probably capable of showing more - possibly when his yard is in better form - although he may benefit from a sterner test of stamina. 79

    Rakish Paddy tore away on his hurdles debut over this course and distance in mid-June, and after finishing last at Chepstow in the interim, did the same again here. Similar to first time out, his jumping was less than fluent. While he was sound enough over the first two, he skewed and stumbled at the third, hit the fourth, was untidy at the fifth, hit the sixth, and having lost his position turning for home, was steady before hopping through the last. If nothing else, Rakish Paddy does have a measure of pace, but while there are stayers on the distaff side of his pedigree, his sire is not a stamina influence. In any event, he will need to jump and settle better before he threatens at any trip. 77

    No Escape was beaten ten lengths at Kempton last September on her only previous racecourse appearance. Though her trainer has had a winner in the sphere, there was little enthusiasm to be had about the pedigree. Racing in a first time hood, No Escape jumped poorly in the rear and was receiving reminders as early as the second. While she was still just about in touch turning for home, she eventually finished nearly fifty lengths behind the winner. 37

    ROSCOMMON 3rd August
    Preview review
    No preview was written and I did not really get a chance to look at the race beforehand. Eternal Presence probably had the most solid profile on paper. The case for Whyzzat largely revolved around his trainer's decent clear round rate and his consistent jumping had a significant part to play in his victory. Nevertheless, hindsight without foresight with which to compare is a fairly empty endeavour and the way the race unfolded further compounds the futility.

    Race review
    With the exception of 2006 when Naas took the honours, Roscommon has been the first port of call for Ireland's juvenile hurdlers this century. Last year's runner-up Jeff Kidder was probably the most accomplished participant, with Won In The Dark and Rashaan also acquitting themselves well. The aforementioned are, by and large, the exceptions and the contests impact on the future is broadly scant with the average winner's median seasonal best RPR being just 113. This year's sixteen runner line up had a similar composition to previous renewals. However, paying homage to the Tour de France's "allez opi-omi lady", Alice Kitty radically changed the complexion of the race by taking out half of the field at the first - including two of the four who started at less than 10/1. Mercifully and rather surprisingly, it appears that the horses emerged without any serious damage, with Stand Staunch getting a bloody nose, and the culprit Alice Kitty being in receipt of various bumps and bruises for her troubles. Those who remained went a decent gallop and while a few were lit up by the carnage, most settled quite well. However, the quality of jumping was not of a good standard and there was further drama when the third favourite, yet to be asked a question, was knocked off her feet at the turn for home by a loose horse, impeding the third placed finisher in the process. The winner jumped well and likely had the measure of the runner-up who made a tremendous blunder on the first circuit. Beyond this however, it is difficult to afford much substance or stability to the overall standard of form.

    Whyzzat cost 160,000 guineas as a yearling, but having failed to face the starter for George Scott, was sold to current connections for 9,000 guineas at last year's Tattersalls July Sale. While he reached the frame on three occasions, he failed to win during his sixteen race flat career, including in claiming company. Though initially rated 75 after his first three outings as a two-year-old, he went into this contest with a rating of 58. Damsire Desert Prince has a credible record in the sphere, but while Dark Angel does get his winners, his overall record is below average and there is little on Whyzzat's damline beyond being a nephew of maiden hurdle winner Under Oath. Denis Gerard Hogan has a modest winner to runner rate of 11.11%, and only one first time scorer to his name. Nevertheless, he has a strong clear round rate of 98.36% and none of his juveniles have fallen or unseated first time out. Accordingly, Whyzzat posted a good and consistent round of jumping with his only flaw coming at the last where he was very slightly steady and clipped the top of the flight. Prominent from the outset, he tucked in behind the leaders and travelling strongly, jumped into a share of the lead at three out. Ridden into a lead of a length after the penultimate flight, he opened the gap to the best part of four lengths which he would maintain to the line. Whyzzat was seemingly exposed on the flat, but he clearly has the aptitude for this game and probably ran close to his flat best first time out. His stamina has not always looked assured and it remains to be seen if he can stand up to sterner challenges. Nevertheless, there were more positives than negatives to take from this performance and it will be interesting to see if he can confirm this form against a more substantial field. 105

    Eternal Presence never bettered his debut third at Killarney last August in five subsequent outings, but shaped better than his form figures suggested in a series of handicaps this term. While the only pedigree clue on the damline is the presence of fair French chaser Grapelli at 3/1, Mastercraftsman and Montjeu are both positive influences as sire and damsire respectively. Eternal Presence was not subject to the same degree of support as his stablemate, but was still sent off a steady 10/3 favourite. Left disputing the lead in the early stages, he took up the initiative after the last in the back and travelled strongly into the straight, trading as low as 1.31 in-running. However, he was unable to resist the winner's challenge and he eventually split first and third by similar margins of just under four lengths. Though he was close to the first and was steady when clipping the second, Eternal Presence jumped reasonably well save for an almighty blunder at the fifth where JJ Slevin did well to maintain the partnership. Establishing the impact of this error on his ultimate performance would be guesswork at this juncture. The form did not quite match what he has shown on the flat, but there was enough in this effort to suggest he can go on from here. 101

    Project Two showed a modicum of promise on his two starts at Dundalk last year, but was completely tailed off on his first couple of outings this term and subsequently only hinted at form in a pair of modest handicaps. Breeding clues were threadbare as he was the first juvenile hurdler for sire Belardo, himself the first son of Lope de Vega to have such a runner, and the closest reasonable hurdling relative was Paseo at 3/2. Edward Harty has had his fair share of winners in the sphere, although the yard has not been firing on all cylinders as of late. Project Two, held up in touch for most of the race, began to get outpaced leaving the back and was further impeded by the hapless Helvic Princess. Nevertheless, while he never looked dangerous, he was able to plug on for third, finishing fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. This unexpected performance can not be rationalised by exceptional jumping either as although his hurdling was not terrible, he skewed when hopping over the second, got in close to the fourth, again at four our, hopped the next and got in tight when hopping through the last. Given his questionable overall profile, time will have to be the judge whether this performance was an anomaly. 98

    Television only made her racecourse debut at the end of May and she finished closer to last than first in a trio of maiden contests. Her official mark of 60, while open for debate, was the fourth highest brought into this contest. The second juvenile hurdler for her trainer, and first for sire Estidhkaar (Dark Angel), Televisions only pedigree clue, apart from being 5/4 with Berjou, is that her fourth dam finished fifth in an Auteuil claimer in 1990. Starting in the rear, Television moved quickly through the field but was still caught up in the first flight drama. Though emerging relatively unscathed, her confidence was affected as she was steady at most of her remaining flights. Televison never made any further progress in the race, and passed only the fading Whipsaw on the run-in to finish twenty-two lengths behind the winner. 76

    Whipsaw's best flat effort was a fifth placed finish in a seven furlong Cork handicap off 65 back in April. While he is a cousin of Calidus Mirabilis, who was fourth in this race last year, the Camacho x Oasis Dream cross is not conducive to stamina. Racing prominently from the outset, Whipsaw was lit up in the early stages and also had a habit of wandering into his flights. He lost his lead going out onto the second circuit and faded badly after losing his position on the home turn. Even without the jumping errors, any optimism for the future would be tempered by his apparent lack of stamina. 81

    Grey Angel was one of two runners for Noel Meade, and an unfancied, longer priced of the pair. Three outings as a two-year-old saw her allotted a rating of 51 and she was last seen refusing to enter the stalls ahead of her intended reappearance at Cork back in May. Suffering considerable inconvenience at the first flight melee, Grey Angel spent the race bringing up the rear. She skewed over the second and third, wandered at the fourth and was slow over the fifth. Though she jumped better from there, she made no impression on the contest. She can largely be forgiven this outing, although there is still little in her profile that would make her of particular interest going forward. 53

    Wicklow Silver capped six consecutive duck eggs with a twenty-one length eighth of eight on his latest outing in a twelve furlong Down Royal handicap. An Estidhkaar x Johannesburg cross with no jumpers on the damline, the only saving grace in his profile is that one of his trainer's six juveniles was a winner. Opening at 40/1 and drifting to 200/1 before halving in price at the off, Wicklow Silver rather missed the first flight of his own volition, but somehow managed to keep upright while scuttering over the bodies. Having jumped left at the second, he hurdled well enough before getting close to the seventh. While not looking an obvious danger, Wicklow Silver had yet to be asked a real question or lose any ground when very badly hampered by the slip of Helvic Princess. This is not to say that he would have gone on to accomplish anything in the race, but it is at least feasible that he can achieve more hurdles than on the flat - little though that might be. 24

    Helvic Princess came into this as a nine race maiden on the flat, but she had thrice reached the frame in that sphere. Finishing third at this venue on her debut last June, she also ran creditably in a pair of ten furlong handicaps in the Spring - at Navan on heavy off 55, and at Cork on good off 57. However, Helvic Princess has been anything but model of consistency and she finished twelfth on each of her latest two outings. Nevertheless, she was much the stronger fancy of Noel Meade's two runners, shortening from 8/1 to 9/2 in the morning, and again to 18/5 in the ring. Furthermore, while she is the first runner over hurdles for Marcel, and daughters of Iffraaj have yet to produce a winning juvenile, Helvic Princess is a niece of top chaser Kempes, and a distant relative of the brilliant Our Conor at 4/2. Narrowly avoiding the drama at the first, she travelled nicely in midfield and made her only error when trailing her hind legs through the fifth. She had yet to be asked a question and was in a decent position leaving the back, but after getting impeded by a loose horse, she lost her back legs and slipped on the bend. This mishap happened too far from the finish to confidently judge how she may have otherwise fared, and her lack of consistency on the flat would warrant a degree of caution when she reappears. Notwithstanding, it would be fair to describe her as unlucky on this occasion and it is hoped she will get the opportunity to demonstrate her ability over hurdles before too long. 0

    Admiral Brown was unable to better seventh position, or finish closer than seven lengths to the winner in six flat outings, and he arrived here with a rating of just 48. Though a nephew of fairly useful chaser Pure Science and out of a Dalakhani mare, his pedigree is noting out of the ordinary. He started the shorter of the Henry De Bromhead pair, but his profile did not really warrant the 10/1 starting price. Setting off just behind the leaders, he was brought down at the first. 0

    Bullock Park was making his first appearance of the year having achieved little in three outings as a two-year-old. Anjaal has managed a winner from five in the sphere and half-brother Saint Jerome was a useful juvenile hurdler in 2014. Ross O'Sullivan has had one winner from nine and Bullock Park was completely unfancied drifting from 40/1 to 100/1 at the off. He was pulling in the rear when brought down at the first. 0

    Dies Its Eine failed to show on his sole flat outing in June, but while he is a nephew of the highly talented juvenile filly, Unaccompanied, he was friendless in the ring going from 40/1 to 150/1. Setting off in a prominent position, he blundered at the first before getting brought down a split second later. He continued to gallop loose although while not averse to jumping more hurdles, he wasn't particularly fluent without his rider. 0

    Guest was tailed off on his sole start as a two-year-old, and since left Ken Condon to join a yard that is yet to have a winner in the sphere from two. Acclamation and Montjeu are just on the lower side of average for sires and damsires, and modest handicap winner Beaumont's Party appears at 3/1 on the damline. Avalable at 25/1 in the morning, but starting at 150/1, Guest was in the rear when steady at the first and having to take evasive action to avoid the fallers. He was very slow at the next and was detached from there before pulling up at halfway. 0

    Stand Staunch, unraced stablemate of the runner-up, went out to 12/1 in the morning. Opening in the ring at 15/2, he was backed down to 4/1 at the off. Sire Camelot enjoyed a fine first season in the sphere, but while his numbers were down the past two seasons, his overall figures are still healthy. The damline is less compelling as it largely consists of sprinters with the nearest winning jumper being the selling class Amazing Sail at 3/1. Just about in mid division, Stand Staunch was subject to a dramatic hampering which saw him emerge with a broken nose. While the money beforehand may have suggested a good performance was anticipated, it remains to be seen if his first racecourse outing leaves an impression on his psyche. 0

    Alice Kitty was the first hurdles runner for Bobby's Kitten, but is a niece of winning hurdler Kilburn and the hurdles placed Popmurphy. One of two flat winners in the field, she broke her duck at the fifth time of asking in a modest Ballinrobe over an extended nine furlongs back in June. Claimed afterwards for €5,000, she was initially set to join Philip Makin in Yorkshire but instead made her hurdling for Denise Foster. Her new handler has yet to saddle a winner in the sphere from thirteen horses, and those who leave Jessica Harrington tend not to improve for the switch in codes. This did not prevent her from starting the day as 5/2 favourite and while she opened at 4/1 in the ring, she was clipped in half a point by flagfall. Sent off in a prominent position, she hesitated on the approach to the first where failed to get high enough and took a crashing fall, bringing down much of the field in the process. Among the injuries she reportedly sustained were an overreach on the right pastern, a right shoulder contusion, a skin wound and blood at the left nostril. Naturally it is hoped that she is able to recover from this baptism of floor and hooves. Insofar as her prospects in the division are concerned, there is little optimism to be drawn from this outing. 0

    Annwyl Angharad finished last on all four flat outings, never finishing nearer than nineteen lengths to the winner, and starting at upwards of 250/1 on her three starts this term. Sire Dylan Thomas has a 21.21% winners to runners rate, but her trainer has yet to taste success in the sphere from his three runners. Drifting from 80/1 to 200/1 here, he was in mid-division when getting too close to the first and unshipping Simon Torrens independently of the surrounding carnage. Annwyl Angharad ran out at the next when running loose. 0

    Mystery Show, previously with Archie Watson, was the other participant with winning flat form and had the highest official rating in that sphere at 81. She landed a ten furlong Ascot handicap off 80 back in May on soft ground and while she ran flat on two of her three subsequent outings, her penultimate performance still looked good in the context of this field. Signs of poor temperament were beginning to emerge however, and she left the Watson yard for 12,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Her pedigree is not without merit as sire Showcasing has a healthy 27.27% winner to runner rate, and the dam is a half-sister to four winning jumpers including Dilshaan's Prize. John Joseph Hanlon does get winners, although his winner to runner rate of 13.04% is below average. Mystery Show went into 5/1 at one point in the morning, but was friendless in the ring, going from 15/2 to 16/1 at the off. Already showing some recalcitrance after the off, she drifted back through the field before getting very badly hampered at the first. She was pulled up shortly thereafter. 0

    Preview - BALLINROBE 9th August
    Following Roscommon's curtain raiser last Tuesday, Ballinrobe is set to host Ireland's second juvenile contest of the season at Monday's twilight meeting. Said to be a racecourse of amazing beauty (although having not seen it myself, I am obliged to say it has nothing on Hexham), Ballinrobe is a right handed track which climbs up the back with the closing stages going downhill. With average winning DIs of 1.12 median, 1.44 mean, it is not a particularly testing circuit although its clear round rate of 94.67% is one of the lower ones in Ireland. Good sorts Zanahiyr and Zoffanien trod its turf last term, while Clarcam finished second here on his debut in September 2013. The overall quality of juvenile hurdles at this venue is on the higher side of average, although those hosted during August (of which there have been three starting in 2017) have taken little winning with the average winner's seasonal RPR being 114.67, and average flat rating being 56.17. Tomorrow's contest looks rather par for the course with the experienced runners headed by Roscommon runner-up Eternal Presence, and the highest rated newcomer being a questionable stayer with a mark of 74. The going is currently described as good to yielding with some light showers forecast between now and post time.

    Drogheda Dave bg Henry De Bromhead f7-0-0 (48) 59
    Pearl Secret (Desert King){4-n}(1.80) 2/1 Mezzanisi 2nd 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (100), Exeter 2013
    Making his debut in mid May, Drogeheda Dave has had six starts on the flat without breaching the first five. His first five attempts came at a mile or shorter, with his latest two coming over nine and eleven furlongs - finishing weakly on each occasion. Henry De Bromhead's credentials as a jumps trainer are not for debate, although his record with juveniles does fall below his usual standards with a winner to runner rate of 10.26%, and overall strike rate of 6.82%. The pedigree offers little respite as rookie sire Pearl Secret does not have the profile to succeed in the sphere, and a fair hurdler at 2/1 is the extent of jumpers on the damline before one reaches Young Poli at 5/2.

    Eternal Presence grc Joseph Patrick O'Brien f6-0-1 (72) 75 j1-0-1 (-) 106 101
    Mastercraftsman (Montjeu){8-c}(0.74) 3/1 Grapelli 4th 3800m 4yo Listed Chase, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2003
    Though he never bettered his debut third at Killarney last August in five subsequent flat outings, Eternal Presence shaped better than his form figures suggested in a series of handicaps this year. While the only pedigree clue on the damline is the presence of fair French chaser Grapelli at 3/1, Mastercraftsman and Montjeu are both positive influences as sire and damsire respectively. Making his hurdling debut at Roscommon six days ago, Eternal Presence was not subject to the same degree of support as his stablemate, but was still sent off a steady 10/3 favourite. Left disputing the lead in the early stages, he took up the initiative after the last in the back and travelled strongly into the straight, trading as low as 1.31 in-running. However, he was unable to resist the winner's challenge and he eventually split first and third by similar margins of just under four lengths. Though he was close to the first and was steady when clipping the second, Eternal Presence jumped reasonably well save for an almighty blunder at the fifth where JJ Slevin did well to maintain the partnership. Establishing the impact of this error on his ultimate performance would be guesswork at this juncture. The form did not quite match what he has shown on the flat, but there was enough in that effort to suggest he can improve. Joseph O'Brien has a record of two wins and four placings from nine runners at the venue, and he also saddled the first two in the 2017 renewal of this contest. Furthermore, the yard has been in good form recently and his strike rate with juveniles goes from 10.29% first time out to 19.15% at the second time of asking. Setting the standard on form and having a substantial overall profile, the only real concern would be that he has yet to actually win a race.

    Fake Plastic Trees bg A Oliver f4-0-0 (53) 52
    Camacho (Street Sense){A29}(2.11) 0.5 Born To Ride 6th 3400m 3yo Hurdle, Clairefontaine 2020
    Since starting his career in April, Fake Plastic Trees has demonstrated no better than moderate form on the flat, including last time when finishing eleventh of thirteen off 52 on his handicap debut over a mile on soft ground at Listowel. Trainer Andrew Oliver is winless from twenty-four attempts in the sphere and while Camacho has had winning juveniles, his winner runner rate of 13.64% is lower than average.

    Grand Revival bg Denis Gerard Hogan f4-1-0 (62) 65
    American Pharoah (Galileo){8-f}(1.00) 3/1 Arco Felice 4th 3m Handicap Hurdle (89), Ffos Las 2011
    Formerly a resident at Ballydoyle, Grand Revival is bred to contest American classics as his sire won the Triple Crown and Classic, while his granddam won the Kentucky Oaks and the Belmont in 2007. This was not to be his destiny however and beginning his career with Denis Gerard Hogan in March, his first two outings saw him fail to best a single one of his thirty-two rivals, beaten a combined sixty-six lengths in the process. Fortunes would change however when stepping up to ten furlongs for a soft ground Fairyhouse claimer towards the end of May. Though he was off the bridle from an early stage, his jockey persevered and despite trading at 1000 in running, he took the lead inside the final furlong to win by two lengths. Though the form is modest and the favourites underperformed, he did had Roscommon winner Whyzzat over three lengths behind him in fourth. Normal services were resumed for his handicap debut four weeks ago as he beat only one home finishing over twenty lengths behind the winner. Impressive though the pedigree may be, it is not particularly conducive to a hurdling career. Nevertheless, the trainer did saddle the aforementioned Whyzzat last week and Grand Revival would not be completely without chance if running to his Fairyhouse form.

    Li Mu Bai bg Gavin Cromwell f8-1-1 (74) 83
    Sir Prancealot (Invincible Spirit){3-e}(1.67) 3/1 Plague O' Rats 1st 2m1f Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 1990
    The highest rated newcomer in the field, Li Mu Bai comes with a mark of 74 courtesy of a win in a Fairyhouse handicap in early July, and a neck second at Galway later that month. Both of those efforts came over seven furlongs however, and he was slightly below form on his return to Galway eight days ago. A son of Sir Prancealot out of an Invincible Spirit mare, Li Mu Bai is not especially bred for a hurdles trip. Incidentally, he comes from thoroughbred family 3-e which is one of the more successful in the division, although the most accomplished recent juvenile in that family, Romain de Senam appears at 10/9 on the damline. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has been in decent form recently and his winner to runner rate of 21.82% is solid enough, although his first time out rate stands at just 5.66%. Li Mu Bai is far from a forlorn hope, although his stamina and specifics in his profile do dampen enthusiasm.

    Luz Long bg J G Coogan f4-0-0 (45) 41
    Elzaam (Rail Link){1-l}(0.71) 0.5 Jeff Kidder 1st Champion 4yo Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2021
    Another who only made his racecourse debut this spring, Luz Long has been beaten at long odds on all four outings and his official mark of 45 exceeds his accomplishments. Notwithstanding, while sire Elzaam was a precocious and speedily bred sprinter, two of his eight juveniles have been winners and his progeny has a 57.14% improvement rate between codes. Furthermore, his half-brother Jeff Kidder was one of the leading juvenile hurdlers of last season and the useful Hills Of Aran also appears on the damline at 3/2. Just one of James Coogan's thirteen juveniles have been winners, but his charge's improvement rate of 71.43% is laudable and his sole winner did score first time out. The individual accomplishments of Luz Long afford him scant prospects here, but there is enough in his profile to suggest that he can at least make a better hurdler.

    Project Two brg Edward P Harty f6-0-0 (54) 64 j1-0-1 (-) 102 98
    Belardo (Mizzen Mast){8-h}(1.46) 3/2 Paseo 3rd Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2019
    Though he showed a modicum of promise on his two starts at Dundalk last year, Project Two was completely tailed off on his first couple of outings this term and subsequently only hinted at form in a pair of modest handicaps. Ahead of his hurdling debut at Roscommon last week, breeding clues were threadbare as he was the first juvenile hurdler for sire Belardo, himself the first son of Lope de Vega to have such a runner, and the closest reasonable hurdling relative was Paseo at 3/2. Edward Harty has had his fair share of winners in the sphere, although the yard has not been firing on all cylinders as of late. In the contest itself, Project Two was held up in touch for most of the race and began to get outpaced leaving the back, further impeded by the hapless slip of Helvic Princess. Nevertheless, while he never looked dangerous, he was able to plug on for third, finishing fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. This unexpected performance can not be rationalised by exceptional jumping as although his hurdling was not terrible, he skewed when hopping over the second, got in close to the fourth, again at four our, hopped the next and got in tight when hopping through the last. Given his questionable overall profile, time will have to be the judge whether this performance was an anomaly and there is no reason why he would reverse placings with Eternal Presence.

    Rich Law No Law bg M Keane f8-0-2 (45) 52
    Lawman (Singspiel){2-f}(0.78) 2/2 Percy Street 6th Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (G3,124), Cheltenham 2017
    Starting his career with Kevin Prendergast, Rich Law No Law collected a couple of placings in a pair of nurseries last autumn. However, his final two starts of last year were below par and he joined Maurice Keane after fetching €5,500 at the Goffs February sale. He was well beaten off 46 on his first start for his new handler - who himself is without any jumps winner since September 2012. Lawman has a fairly solid record as a sire of juveniles and cousin Percy Street finished sixth in the 2017 Fred Winter. However, there are enough holes in Rich Law No Law's form and profile to temper any real enthusiasm here.

    Virtual Hug bg Conor O'Dwyer f11-0-2 (65) 76
    Buratino (Lilbourne Lad){3-o}(0.56) 4/1 Inchacooley 5th 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 1996
    The second highest rated newcomer in the field is Virtual Hug who arrives here after eleven flat outings with a mark of 65. His best efforts came over a mile at Gowran last August, Naas the following month, and at Dundalk in January. He ran below par on his return from a three month break in May but shaped better when last seen at Leopardstown eighteen days ago. He has yet to race beyond a mile and his free running style may be more pronounced in this type of contest. Despite a low dosage index, his pedigree is not given to stamina although sire Buratino's sole juvenile to date has been a winner. Conor O'Dwyer has had a winner this month, but is yet to taste success in this discipline from fifteen individual juveniles. Virtual Hugs holds some chance on form, but he will absolutely need to settle if he is to have an impact in this sphere.

    Whipsaw bg Henry De Bromhead f6-0-0 (59) 65 j1-0-0 (-) 87 81
    Camacho (Oasis Dream){4-j}(2.11) 2/2 Calidus Mirabilis 2nd 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2020
    One of two runners for Henry De Bromhead, Whipsaw is another veteran of last week's Roscommon contest. A maiden on the flat, his best effort was a fifth placed finish in a seven furlong Cork handicap off 65 back in April. While he is a cousin of Calidus Mirabilis, who was second in this race last year, the Camacho x Oasis Dream cross is not conducive to stamina and it played out last week. Racing prominently from the outset, Whipsaw was lit up in the early stages and also had a habit of wandering into his flights. He lost his lead going out onto the second circuit and faded badly after losing his position on the home turn. Even without the jumping errors, any optimism for the future would be tempered by his apparent lack of stamina.

    Calvados bf John C McConnell f6-0-0 (55) 66
    Vadamos (Nathaniel){5-h}(0.38) 3/1 Madrasa 1st 2m3½f Novices' Handicap Hurdle (95), Wetherby 2015
    Though still without a win in six starts since her debut last November, Calvados ran her best race to date last time out at Killarney four weeks ago. Stepping up in trip to eleven furlongs and racing off 56, she travelled sensibly behind the leaders and though she did not have the pace to pose any real threat, she kept on well enough. Denied second place by just a head, she also had several of today's rivals behind her and comes out best at the weights. Sire Vadamos has had just the one juvenile to date, but the son of Monsun has the potential to be a useful weapon in the sphere. Calvados will be the first representative of Nathaniel as a damsire, but his record as a sire is very strong in terms of class and winners. John McConnell has a healthy record in the division with a 25% winner to runner rate, and comes here on the back of landing a treble at Downpatrick on Sunday. The yard's runners tend to improve for the run, and Calvados still has a bit to find on bare form, but she would still have the potential to do well in this company.

    Mystery Show bf John Joseph Hanlon f8-2-1 (81) 85 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
    Showcasing (Kheleyf){9-h}(1.55) 2/1 Dilshaan's Prize 1st 2m Novice Hurdle, Naas 2011
    Previously with Archie Watson, Mystery Show, holds winning flat form and has the highest official rating in that sphere at 81. She landed a ten furlong Ascot handicap off 80 back in May on soft ground and while she ran flat on two of her three subsequent outings, her penultimate performance still looked good in the context of this field. Signs of poor temperament were beginning to emerge however, and she left the Watson yard for 12,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Her pedigree is not without merit as sire Showcasing has a healthy 27.27% winner to runner rate, and the dam is a half-sister to four winning jumpers including Dilshaan's Prize. John Joseph Hanlon does get winners, although his winner to runner rate of 13.04% is below average. Making her hurdling debut at Roscommon last week, Mystery Show went into 5/1 at one point in the morning, but was friendless in the ring, going from 15/2 to 16/1 at the off. Already showing some recalcitrance after the off, she drifted back through the field before getting very badly hampered at the first, and was pulled up shortly thereafter. While she would still be entitled to some respect on her flat form and breeding, her questionable temperament and dubious hurdles debut would make her a risky proposition.

    Television bf Hugh Paul Finegan f3-0-0 (60) 62 j1-0-0 (-) 80 76
    Estidhkaar (Footstepsinthesand){12-g}(0.71) 4/0 Marienthal 5th 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 1990
    Making her racecourse debut at the end of May, Television finished closer to last than first in a trio of maiden contests. Her official mark of 60, while open for debate, was the fourth highest brought into Roscommon's curtain raiser last week. The second juvenile hurdler for her trainer, and first for sire Estidhkaar (Dark Angel), Televisions only pedigree clue, apart from being 5/4 with Berjou, is that her fourth dam finished fifth in an Auteuil claimer in 1990. Starting in the rear, Television moved quickly through the field but was still caught up in the first flight drama. Though emerging relatively unscathed, her confidence was affected as she was steady at most of her remaining flights. Televison never made any further progress in the race, and passed only the fading Whipsaw on the run-in to finish twenty-two lengths behind the winner. While she would be entitled to run a little better with a clearer run, her confidence would not yet be assured and there is still plenty of ground to be made up on Eternal Presence and Project Two.

    RESERVES
    Gervada bg Ciaran Murphy Unraced
    Vadamos (Deposit Ticket){2-n}(0.80) 0.5 Free Code 5th 2m3f Maiden Hurdle, Limerick 2018
    Going unsold for €17,000 as a yearling at the Goffs Sportsman's sale in 2019, Gervada could make his racecourse debut here if getting in the race. Another son of Vadamos, Gervada is a half-brother two three flat winners at up to a mile including Free Code who also finished fifth in a maiden hurdle at Limerick. The great Sea Bird also appears on the damline at 5/3 with top French chaser Aveu de Kervero a further step away at 5/4. He could be the first runner in a juvenile hurdle for Ciaran Murphy, whose overall strike rate with jumpers stands at 3%. Though not entirely without potential, Gervada does not quite have enough in his profile to offset the poor record of unraced debutants in the division.

    Feigh chf W P Mullins Unraced
    Well Chosen (Great Palm){14-a}(0.80) 2/1 Belmount 1st 3m1f Handicap Chase (127), Hereford 2016
    Willie Mullins has a record with juvenile hurdlers which is basically the envy of everybody in the business. However, Feigh, his possible first runner of the campaign, failed to sell as a foal at the Tattersalls Ireland sale, passing through the ring with a bid of just €1,800. Bred to be a chaser for the long term, Feigh is by a Well Chosen whose sole juvenile failed to score. Her uncle Belmount was a fairly useful staying chaser and the likes of Afistfullofdollars (3/2) Gaye Brief, Gaye Chance and Black Humour (each at 4/1) also appear on the damline. While any Mullins representative would be entitled to some respect, it is worth nothing that he has yet to score with a racecourse debutant in the sphere.

    Grey Angel cgf Noel Meade f3-0-0 (51) 55 j1-0-0 (-) 59 53
    Lethal Force (Three Valleys){A29}(1.40) 3/1 Magnitude 3rd 2m Selling Hurdle, Leicester 2009
    Three outings as a two-year-old saw Grey Angel allotted a rating of 51 and she was last seen on the flat refusing to enter the stalls ahead of her intended reappearance at Cork back in May. Making her hurdling debut last week, she suffered considerable inconvenience at the first flight melee and spent the race bringing up the rear. She skewed over the second and third, wandered at the fourth and was slow over the fifth. Though she jumped better from there, she made no impression on the contest. She can largely be forgiven that outing, although there is still little in her profile that would make her of particular interest going forward.

    Strong prospects
    1. Eternal Presence
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Calvados
    3. Project Two
    Feasible prospects
    4. Grand Revival
    5. Luz Long
    6. Li Mu Bai
    7. Mystery Show
    Moderate prospects
    8. Virtual Hug
    9. Television
    10. Gervada (R)
    11. Feigh (R)
    Negligible prospects
    12. Whipsaw
    13. Grey Angel (R)
    14. Rich Law No Law
    15. Drogheda Dave
    16. Fake Plastic Trees

  2. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Bachelors Hall For This Useful Post:

    barjon (8th August 2021), edgt (8th August 2021), Len Madeiros (9th August 2021)

  3. #22
    Senior Member Bachelors Hall's Avatar
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    I just realise I've been sitting on the Ballinrobe review for a couple of days... Will post after this PSA...

    It will be a while before the next juvenile hurdle so I am hoping to get some profiles done for possible recruits to the division. If there are any suggestions that are not listed below then I am more than happy to have a look.

    These are on my to-do list.
    Tashkhan
    Too Friendly
    Champion Green
    Champagne Piaff
    Impulsive One
    Brunello

    These are on the maybe pile.
    Knight Salute
    Sonning
    Genuflex
    Book Of Secrets

    These are listed for the Triumph but am unsure how likely they are to jump a hurdle in Britain or Ireland this term.
    Altesse du Berlais
    Mojo Star
    Earlswood

    I like a crack at these but I am unsure as to who they are with. If anybody can enlighten us then that would be most appreciated!
    Message Personnel
    Ramure
    Tanganyika
    Kotmask
    In Excess
    Il Etait Temps
    Gentleman Joe

    BALLINROBE - 9th August
    Preview review
    The winner, whose tissue price was 14/1 in the RP and 25/1 on ATR, placed second on the prospects list and received sustained market support throughout the day before being sent off the 10/3 second favourite. For a moment leaving the back, the first three on the prospects list looked set to match their positions on the course before Eternal Presence faded into third. While having the most solid profile, that the favourite had yet to actually win was raised as a concern, although whether by design or resignation, his going for home a long way out was probably a greater factor in his lacklustre finish. Li Mu Bai, the only runner starting shorter than 10/1 who failed to run a race, was flagged as a doubtful stayer and this played out in the race. The pulled-up 80/1 shot, Luz Long, was given a relatively positive assessment, though while he ran according to his price, he reportedly made respiratory noises in running. Overall, though a beaten strong prospect will always have a sting, when accounting for the fact that the preview is meant to be informative rather than advisory, it is difficult to be too disappointed.

    Race review
    This term's second juvenile hurdle to take place in Ireland looked fairly ordinary beforehand and the form of the race is unlikely to have any great relevance once the season goes into full swing. Nevertheless, the standard of jumping was better than in the Roscommon curtain raiser and the pace and winning time were very respectful compared to the other races at the distance on the card - with Calvados passing the post in a time 2.1 seconds quicker than the maiden, and 5.4 seconds faster than the handicap hurdle. The first three, who were entitled to be in the frame, were separated by over eleven lengths with wide intervals splitting the field from fourth place onwards. First and second are unexposed, improving sorts and while the third was probably denied a better position by ambitious tactics, he still stepped up on his debut effort by dint of a cleaner round. While the third placed horse could feasibly better his rivals in the future, the form still has a solid enough shape.

    Calvados failed to reach the frame in six outings on the flat, but her latest effort in that sphere was her strongest to date. Stepped up to eleven furlongs for a Killarney handicap, she travelled sensibly and kept on to the finish, being denied a second place finish by a head. Trainer John McConnell has a healthy record in this discipline and the yard was in good form going into this contest. Furthermore, while sire Vadamos had hitherto been untested in the sphere, he has the attributes to be a useful source of juveniles and Calvados became his first winner over jumps with a convincing display. Overlooked in the tissue prices, she started the day at 6/1 which was also her opening show in the ring. However, she was the subject of sustained support in the lead up to the off and started the race as 10/3 clear second favourite. Sent off in a prominent position, she moved to track the leaders, travelling comfortably along the way. Nudged along to make headway from the top of the hill, she was ridden with more impetus approaching the distance and reached the leader jumping the last. Landing alongside, she noticeably more full of running than her rival and moved into a clear lead in a matter of strides before extending her advantage to half-a-dozen lengths and running out a fairly cosy winner. Calvados jumped nicely for a debutant with her only errors being a slight clip of the third and giving the fourth a bit of air. The form does not amount to a great deal but the winning time was decent and she did everything very professionally. Already an improver on the flat, Calvados has maintained her progress over hurdles and there should be more to come going forward. 108

    Project Two did not show much in two runs last year, and fared little better following his winter break. However, he overcame some sloppy jumping along with interference in-running to surpass expectations and finish third on his hurdling debut at Roscommon. Available at 7/1 during the morning, he opened on course at 7/2 and while he drifted back out to 13/2 at the off, he was still considerably shorter than he had been at Roscommon. Settled just behind the leaders, he set off in pursuit of Eternal Presence along the back and had bridged the gap to a couple of lengths when blundering at the penultimate flight. He did not have the pace to immediately renew his challenge and while he was eventually able to overhaul the long time leader, the winner had already flown. Project Two proved that his hurdling debut was not a fluke and a better overall round of jumping brought about further improvement in form. While this performance would not amount to a great deal, it would still be one of the strongest seen to date in the division and a win would not be beyond Project Two's scope over the coming weeks. 108

    Eternal Presence, by Mastercraftsman, out of a Montjeu mare and trained by Joseph O'Brien, has as very solid profile for a prospective hurdler. While he was a maiden after six runs on the flat, his official rating of 72 is well up to scratch for the time of year and his debut second at Roscommon was not without promise. Jumping well for the most part, save for a blunder on the first circuit, he found only one too good. Returning here six days later and starting a solid 6/4 favourite, Eternal Presence started prominently and made the lead his own after the third. Without pulling hard, he was fairly free up front and going along the back, he went into a clear lead. He still held a good advantage half a mile from home but initial signs of his faltering began to show at two out where he got close to the flight making his first real error of the contest. His advantage had been reduced almost to nil by the last and forfeiting the lead shortly after. he was soon treading water and lost third in the final two hundred yards. Though his cleaner round marks a slight step up on his debut outing, this marks the second occasion in as many runs where he was beaten after trading at long odds-on in running. Eternal Presence clearly has the ability to win a race of this nature, and the most feasible explanation for this defeat would be his being sent for home too early. Whether this was by design or whether Eternal Presence ran out of his rider's hands is not patently obvious. His stamina, while not bottomless, should still be sufficient to see out the minimum trip over hurdles. While he does not look particularly wayward, it is possible that he may benefit from a date with a pair of scissors. However, the fact remains that he has yet to deliver on his potential and until he gets his head in front where it matters, there will be a question mark hanging over his profile. 103

    Television finished nearer last than first on her three flat outings since her debut in late May, but her rating of 60 does not make her a forlorn prospect for hurdling. She was the subject of light support ahead of her hurdles bow at Roscommon and ran on into fourth after getting caught up in the first flight drama. Available at 10/1 in the morning, she opening in the ring at 20/1 which would remain stagnant up to the off. Held up in touch, Television was big over the second and hopped over the third, but was more assured overall than she had been the previous week. Looking one paced as the race unfolded, she stayed on late to challenge for third and had upwards of eleven lengths in hand over the remainder of the field. This was more in keeping with her best flat form and while there were no excuses on this occasion, Television can still improve to be competitive in moderate company. 95

    Whipsaw was the shorter priced of the two Henry De Bromhead runners although his flat form is no better than moderate. Another veteran of the Roscommon contest, his debut saw him race too freely to do himself justice and it started in a similar fashion here. Briefly leading in the early stages, he fought for his head before being pulled back behind the leaders. His hurdling benefited as a result and his only error was getting slightly big at the fifth. However, the greater restraint did not translate into a more purposeful finish and he lost touch leaving the back stretch. While Whipsaw put up a better performance than at Roscommon, stamina concerns still linger and he does not look an obvious winner in the making. 91

    Grand Revival used to reside at Ballydoyle and parents have five American triple-crown races between them. However, he would not race in Coolmore colours and three of his four flat outings resulted in very little. He did, however, win a Fairyhouse claimer on his penultimate start, the form of which did not read badly in the context of this field. Grand Revival raced very lazily at Fairyhouse and he managed to get himself detached in the early stages here, jumping slowly and untidily in the process. Tailed off leaving the back, Grand Revival was able to pass a few beaten horses in the closing stages, although he still finished forty-one lengths behind the winner. Grand Revival is seemingly a horse capable of better than he shows, and while his unreliability would make him of little interest in the short term, he could potentially be competitive should he develop such a mentality. 73

    Fake Plastic Trees collected four duck eggs from as many outings on the flat and his profile did not suggest that a change of fortunes was forthcoming over hurdles. Jumping big and slowly, Fake Plastic Trees was held up towards the rear and though he made some headway around the half-way stage, he soon lost his position with a tired jump two out. 72

    Gervada, making his racecourse debut here, is by the same sire as the winner but that was essentially the extent of positives in his profile. Largely anonymous in the markets, he set off prominently, raced keenly, but did not make any real hurdling errors. He lost places along the back and after clinging on to the main body up to two out, would then weaken markedly and finish tailed off. His clean round of jumping is a positive, but there is little else to draw from this performance. 37

    Mystery Show had the highest flat rating in this line up and had managed to win at Ascot for Archie Watson back in May. However, her temperament has begun to look suspect and was showing signs of recalcitrance on her hurdling debut before pulling up early on having been severely hampered. She opened at 18/1 in the ring, but most faith had dissipated as she drifted out to 50/1 by the off. Racing towards the rear, her hurdling lacked fluency or assurance and was losing ground on the leaders as the race progressed before finishing tailed off. 17

    Rich Law No Law placed third in a pair of low grade nurseries last Autumn for Kevin Prendergast, but had failed to match that standard in two subsequent outings for the yard. Beaten by nearly twenty lengths off 46 on his reappearance under his new trainer, he was completely unfancied for this and started at 250/1. Always in the rear division, he was steady at his hurdles (reported by his rider to have jumped green) and finished the race tailed off and tired. 24

    Drogheda Dave was the second string for Henry De Bromhead and his career highlights on the flat came by way of finishing midfield in a pair of seven furlong handicaps off marks in the fifties. Doubling in price to 66/1 at the off, Drogheda Dave lacked fluency at his hurdles, never left the rear and finished tired and detached. 7

    Luz Long showed very modest form on the flat, failing to get within twenty lengths of the winner in four outings. There were glimmers of hope in his profile, however, as his sire has had winners from his few representatives in the sphere, half-brother Jeff Kidder was one of the leading juveniles of last season and his trainer's horses often improve for the switch in codes. Opening at 80/1 in the ring, he went out to 150/1 at one point before returning to his original price. Though he set off just behind the leaders, any optimism was short lived as he was hesitant at the first and would be slow and novicey from there, losing ground and pulling up before two out. Nevertheless, the embers are not completely extinguished as he reportedly made a noise during the race. 0

    Li Mu Bai brought a rating of 74 from the flat which came courtesy of a first, then a second, in a pair of seven furlong handicaps at Fairyhouse and Galway the previous month. Though there were stamina concerns both on form and on breeding, he represented a Gavin Cromwell yard with a good record in the sphere and was sent off a steady third favourite at 5/1. Tucked in behind the leaders, he jumped the first couple reasonably before getting tight at the third and skewing over the next. Unable to keep up along the back, he faltered as the race reached the closing stages and was on course to finish towards the rear when making errors at the final two flights, unshipping his rider at the last. With his last outing coming eight days prior and the yard being in form, there are no obvious excuses beyond a lack of stamina and aptitude. 0

  4. #23
    Senior Member Bachelors Hall's Avatar
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    Can't remember where I was up to with the profiles for prospective juveniles, but since a few wanted updating in any case, and to keep things a little tidier without any running loose, I may as well pop them in the same post.

    One of the updates is that a few of the French recruits have been given valeurs or official ratings. The BHA generally does a straight translation from kilos to pounds which, invariably results in some horses becoming very badly handicapped. Since the turn of the century, 182 imported juveniles have come with a French rating over jumps. Of these, 131 raced three times during their initial campaigns. The average peak RPRs of these horses was 114.44 mean, 118 median. Their average valeurs translated to pounds was 132.81 mean, 132 median. This leaves a gap of between 14 and 18.38 pounds and of these 131 horses, only nineteen would achieve an RPR exceeding their valeur. As such, while Brainstorm's 136.4 would have him amongst the top weights in most Fred Winters, it is worth remembering that he is an iffy sort who came out of an average claimer...

    For the sake of clarity, a guide to the guide;-

    Horse, sex, gender, trainer, record, (official rating), RPR, my rating, former trainer
    Sire (damsire){thoroughbred family number}{dosage index) horse's x dam is the/x dam of noted horse*, noted horse, noted horse's most pertinent jumps performance
    Link to French video form if applicable

    *1/0 = dam of, 1/1 = full sibling, 0.5 = half-sibling, 2/1 = second dam is first dam of.../dam is sibling of, 3/2 = third dam is second dam of...

    FRENCH JUMPS RECRUITS
    Matterhorn bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 (-) 116 132 (Gabriel Leenders)
    Martaline (Turgeon){1-x}(0.67) 2/1 Turgot 1st Prix La Haye Jousselin (G1), Auteuil 2004
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/matterhorn-3
    By Martaline (We Have A Dream, Beaumec de Houelle, Kotkikova, Malaya) Matterhorn is a nephew of top staying chaser Turgot but is also related to useful juveniles. His dam won in the division, uncle Pontvallain finished third in the Prix Cambaceres (the championship contest for three-year-olds) while Sept Verites (2/2) and Dans La Foulee (2/3) made winning debuts in the Prix Wild Monarch. Recent graduates of the contest include Busselton, Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has while top-class animals such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce count themselves among the longer term introductions. During this season's renewal, Matterhorn was in the process of running a big race and certainly held a winning chance before going through the top of the last and dramatically losing his hind legs on landing. Conspicuously green on his racecourse debut, Matterhorn was keen early and making minor errors, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. He moved stylishly back into the lead turning for home and looked full of running approaching the final hurdle. The incident gave the initiative to Paradiso, who was representing a David Cottin yard which has been dominant in the division this season, while Matterhorn ran into third place after regaining his bearings. The form of the race is taking a solid shape as Paradiso has firmly established himself as the leading three-year-old of the season to date by taking the Prix Stanley and Prix Aguado in taking style. Sixth placed Gaelic Warrior finished third on two subsequent visits to the venue ahead of a move to Willie Mullins while eighth placed Issam won a Lyon contest next time out by twelve lengths. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders was responsible for five juvenile recruits of which three were winners (Teahupoo, Paros, Samarrive) while Haut En Couleurs placed third in both the Triumph and at Punchestown. Matterhorn's new trainer Paul Nicholls, has taken thirteen juveniles out of the Prix Wild Monarch, twelve of them winning during their first term at Manor Farm stables including Dolos, Hinterland and San Benedeto. The unpolished Matterhorn has considerable scope and potential and is in the right hands to make a strong impact on the sphere in the upcoming season.

    Porticello bg Gary Moore j1-1-0 (-) 122 132 (David Cottin)
    Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d'Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello
    Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colt Paradiso, and leading filly Matilda du Berlais. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is another debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Beaumec De Houelle, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year's edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree being a Sholokhov nephew of Grand Prix d'Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. The provisional Grandak form is looking reasonable with third placed Imprenable winning next time and fifth placed Coup de Coeur running respectably in decent company, although collateral form does place Porticello behind Matterhorn at this juncture. Notwithstanding, it should still be enough to make him competitive in good races and Gary Moore could have another useful recruit on his hands.

    Foxy Girl bf Henry de Bromhead j1-0-1 (-) 120 132 (David Cottin)
    Saint des Saints (Sageburg){9-f}(0.50) 2/1 Far West 2nd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2013
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/foxy-girl-1
    The Prix Wild Monarch is an early season listed hurdle for three-year-old debutants held during Auteuil's spring season and is split into divisions according to the horse's sex. The edition for colts and geldings has a richer history of producing horses who fare well in Britain and Ireland and the best graduates of the fillies' contest (Roll On Has, Nikita du Berlais, Whetstone) did their best work in their native France. Since 2008, just eight have come out of the race to contest juvenile hurdles across La Manche and only three of those were able to win during their initial campaigns - the most successful being 2010 eighth Tatispout who won a couple of late season handicaps for Charlie Longsdon, although Salsaretta went on to become a useful chaser for Willie Mullins. This season's renewal saw David Cottin saddle the first three home and the runner-up, Foxy Girl, has since joined Henry de Bromhead to run in the Robcour colours. Foxy Girl, the shortest price of the Cottin troupe, was initially held up in the rear of the field and while she jumped neatly herself, was slightly impeded over the first three flights. Making smooth headway after passing the stands, she was hampered jumping the last in the back but maintained her progress on the turn for home to get within a length of the lead jumping two out. Though she did nothing wrong in her jumping or effort, she was unable to match the winner as she went down by a length and a quarter while putting six lengths between herself and the rest of the field. The winner, Matilda du Berlais, won the Prix d'Iena next time by ten lengths and while she had to settle for second in the Grade Three Prix Sagan, she still stands as France's leading filly of her age group. The form of those who followed Foxy Girl has also stood up thus far, with third placed Saintamarin filling the same position in the d'Iena, and fourth placed La Cheneviere finishing second then first in a pair of useful conditions events at the same track. Along with very credible form, there is also plenty to like about Foxy Girl's pedigree as she is a daughter of Saint des Saints out of a mare who won over hurdles and fences at four. The dam is also a half-sister to three talented young hurdlers in Far West, second in the 2013 Triumph, Fabulously, third in the 2006 Prix Aguado, and Firmini who was third in the 2007 Prix d'Iena. Harry Whittington's useful Fou Et Sage (2/2) and champion four-year-old come top class chaser Feu Follet (2/3) also descend from Foxy Girl's granddam. Though not as prolific as their male counterparts, imported fillies have a respectable 35.42% winners to runners rate and count the likes of Apple's Jade, L'Unique and Gaspara amongst their numbers. While Aspire Tower finished second in the 2020 Triumph Hurdle, Henry de Bromhead's overall record in the sphere is not the best as his winner to runner rate of 10.81% attests. Nevertheless, there will be few fillies this season with stronger profiles than Foxy Girl and it is not unfeasible that she could develop into a threat against the boys come the Spring festivals.

    Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 (-) 119 129 (David Cottin)
    Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato
    Runner-up to Porticello in the Prix Grandak, Magistrato is another addition to the Paul Nicholls ranks and is following in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage of the subsequent winner in third. A son of Kapgarde, his dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteuil was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, there ought to be races won during his first season in Great Britain and he could be of particular interest with give in the ground.

    Tanganyika bg Venetia Williams j3-1-0 (61.5 - 135.3) 120 124 (Francois Nicolle)
    Martaline (Kapgarde){4-n}(0.44) 2/1 Notario Has 3rd Prix Congress (G2), Auteuil 2012
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/tanganyika
    While Venetia Williams will be more reknowned for her staying chasers, her record in the juvenile hurdling division is still very laudable. Boasting a winner to runner rate of 31.34%, she has also done well with her French recruits including the likes of Houblon des Obeaux, Tango de Juilley and Kapga de Cerisy. Her first known recruit of the season is the Martaline gelding Tanganyika, who went for €40,000 at the Arqana Summer Sale at the start of July. Starting his career with Francois Nicolle, whose previous exports include Quilixios, Monmiral and Allblak des Places, Tanganyika made a winning debut in the Prix du Brevent at Compiegne in mid April. A contest which has been taken by the likes of Adrien du Pont, Bertimont and Ibis du Rheu in the past, with Cristal Bonus, King's Socks and Giorgio Quercus also among past participants. Sent off the shortest price of the newcomers, Tanganyika found himself outpaced early on, and did not help himself by making a series of errors throughout the race. He managed to move into a more competitive position turning for home and after drawing alongside the leader with a furlong to go, he went on to grind out a winning margin of just over a length. Runner up Tkliwy Nihilista has gone on to win the first three-year-old chase of the year, fourth placed Surprising won at the venue next time while the third placed Moulins Clermont since joined Gary Moore for €70,000. That would be Tanganyika's peak performance of his three outings as he twice failed to make an impact on a pair of Auteuil conditions events. Inconsistent jumping plagued his next outing when he was beaten just under twenty lengths at the start of June when, having started prominently, lost his position early on and the headway he made approaching the home turn was negated when the leaders left him behind. In the Prix Frascati towards the end of the month, Tanganyika started the race with a fairly wayward jump, but to his credit, he posted much his cleanest round to date. However, too much use was made of him over the 3500m trip and along the back stretch, he had a good twenty lengths over his pursuers. He was caught by the penultimate obstacle but while fairly spent and dropping back to fifth, he was still within nine lengths of the winner crossing the line. Sire Martaline has a fine record with hurdlers and chasers alike and Tanganyika comes from a good family of French jumpers. More specifically, several on his damline made their marks as young chasers as Notario Has (2/1) was placed in a Prix Congress, Victoire des Borde (3/3) was third in the 2013 Prix Ferdinand Dufaure (Grade 1 for four-year-old chasers) while Utopie Des Bordes (3/3) won the 2012 Prix Maurice Gillois (the four-year-old chasers' championship) ahead of a solid career with Nicky Henderson. Tanganyika's overall profile is that of a medium long term prospect and, though not without merit, his form leaves him with something to find with the more promising recruits. Notwithstanding, when conditions are right, there will be races to be won this term.

    Gaelic Warrior bg Willie Mullins j3-0-2 (63,0 - 138.6) 117 122 (Guillaume Macaire)
    Maxios (Hernando){1-l}(0.58) 3/1 Bagan 1st 2m4½f Handicap Chase (128), Warwick 2008
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/gaelic-warrior
    The first known Rich Ricci recruit, along with Willie Mullins' first import with jumps experience, made his debut in the colts and geldings edition of the Prix Wild Monarch where he finished sixth behind Paradiso and the exciting Paul Nicholls recruit Matterhorn. Held up in the rear, Gaelic Warrior made some headway along the back but never had the pace to land a blow, finishing seventeen lengths behind the winner. Apart from missing the last, he put in a clean round of jumping though one possibly more befitting a future chaser than a quick hurdler. Three weeks later, Gaelic Warrior returned to Auteuil for a conditions race where, ridden more prominently, he put up another decent round of hurdling with his only errors coming when getting close to the fourth and taking off too early at the last. Neither of these errors had any real impact on his performance in finishing a length behind the winner in third. After another three weeks, Gaelic Warrior returned to Auteuil for a similar conditions event where his performance was in keeping with his previous efforts. Jumping cleanly for the most part and making headway through the race without threatening a win, this time finishing just over six lengths behind in third. Gaelic Warrior has produced comparable form on each outing, probably warranting a mark in the early 120s. This would be enough to win ordinary races and while further improvement under Willie Mullins is a reasonable assumption, Gaelic Warrior has been brought with chasing in mind. Maxios already has winning chasers in France and Ireland and along with Bagan appearing at 3/1 on the damline, Gaelic Warrior also has a cousin with wins in cross country events.

    Moulins Clermont bg Gary Moore j1-0-1 (-) 117 121 (Bertrand Lefevre)
    Free Port Lux (Ungaro){3-o}(0.67) 0.5 Paris Clermont 1st 4300 Conditions Chase, Aix-les-Bains 2016
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/moulins-clermont
    It is a sign of the times, probably compounded by events of the past year, that this next entry was purchased not privately or at a public auction, but on an online shop. For €70,000, Moulins Clermont left Bertrand Lefevre to become another recruit to the Gary Moore ranks. Continuing the prototype theme, Moulins Clermont represents the first crop of jumpers by Group Two winner Free Port Lux - a giant of a horse at 1.70m who despite being by Oasis Dream, has a stamina laden pedigree and has already produced an eighteen length winner at Auteuil. Moulins Clermont's sole start came in the Prix du Brevent at Compiegne which is a reasonable conditions race that has been contested by the likes of Adrien Du Pont, Ibis Du Rheu, Cristal Bonus. Held up in midfield, Moulins Clermont had a propensity to get tight at his hurdles but rarely caused alarm. However, despite the race being the slowest held at the venue this term, he still looked short of pace and was doing his best work towards the end of the contest. Though clearly not devoid of ability, Moulins Clermont would, for the immediate future, appear to be better suited to a slog around Fontwell as opposed to something like the Adonis.

    Illico des Places bg Tom Symonds j1-1-0 (-) 119 (Francois Nicolle)
    Jeu St Eloi (Anabaa Blue){6-e}(2.00) 0.5 Gatsby des Places 1st 3yo Hurdle, Royan 2019
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/illico-des-places
    With his sole start coming in a debutants contest at Châteaubriant, on a sleepy Sunday provincial meeting last month, Illico des Places does not yet have a profile page on the racing post site. Nevertheless, despite his rustic introduction to the sport, he could potentially be a useful sort. The field barely came out of a canter during the opening stages during which Illico des Places pulled extremely hard. Jumping himself into the lead at the fourth, he was still fairly headstrong but was not allowed to run away under Gaëtan Masure. Though he went through the top of the seventh, was flat footed at the eighth and got in close to the tenth, his jumping was neat overall and at times, quite taking. Holding a dozen length advantage turning into the straight, one might assume that there was another circuit to be completed given the lack of urgency displayed by the other riders. Nevertheless, this advantage was increased to eighteen lengths at the line which was achieved with the utmost ease. A race of its nature would take little winning, but the form is taking a reasonable shape with the second and the third each finishing runner-up next time in similar company. Former trainer Francois Nicolle has a strong record of producing talented juveniles with last season's Quilixios and Monmiral enhancing the standards previously set by the likes of Botox Has, Allblak des Places and Coko Beach. Sire Jeu St Eloi has yet to have a runner in Britain or Ireland, but his first two crops in France have resulted in seven winners from twenty-one foals thus far. Half-brother Gatsby des Places has won on three of his four completed starts while winners Kentucky Star (2/1), Double Double (3/1) and Happy Reunion (3/1) appear nearby on the damline. In Tom Symonds, he joins a trainer who has yet to win with any of his juveniles recruited from British flat trainers, despite six of them being rated 70 and above. However, his record with French recruits is a different story altogether as five of the six have been winners, including Don Bersy and Song For Someone. Though he was thrown into fairly shallow waters for his debut, Illico des Places fits the "could be anything" category and will warrant definite intrigue wherever he next appears.

    Message Personnel bg Dan Skelton j2-1-0 (-) 117 (Jean-Philippe Dubois)
    Saint Des Saints (Muhtathir){4-l}(0.50) 2/1 Wonderful Charm 3rd Peterborough Chase (G2), Huntingdon 2014
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/message-personnel-1
    Jean-Philippe Dubois has been the source of four juvenile hurdlers in Britain and Ireland, two of whom were winners, and another being last season's useful Saint Sam. His first export this season is the twice raced Message Personnel who joins Dan Skelton under the ownership of John Hales. Making his debut in an ordinary contest at Chateauxbriant in the middle of May, Message Personnel brought up the rear in a steadily ran contest, and was rather caught flat footed when the tempo increased on the second circuit. The winner, Tom Symond's recruit Illico des Places, was long gone by the time he reached the straight and while ground was made on the runner-up, Message Personnel was unable to get the better of his third placed stablemate. Nevertheless, he jumped well apart from getting slightly close to a couple and he was able to make amends next time in a slightly more valuable event at Dieppe on the first of July. Racing again in the rear but keeping tabs on the leaders, Message Personnel travelled well and made smooth headway on the turn for home. He was within a couple of lengths of the leaders at the penultimate hurdle where his task was made easier by the fall of the favourite who in turn, hampered the second favourite. Notwithstanding, he ran on well to beat what was left, quickening on the run-in to emerge the three-and-a-half length winner. Given the incident at two out, it is difficult to get a good grasp of the form but there were two previous winners involved at the time and the runner-up ran to a similar level on her next outing. New trainer Dan Skelton has a strong record in the sphere with a winner to runner rate of 38.96% contributed to by the likes of Allmankind, Bedrock and Nube Negra. His better juveniles have been flat recruits and none of his French recruits won first time, although half of the six would score during their first campaigns for the trainer. Saint des Saints is more given to producing chasing types, but his record with juveniles is still very strong with 29.41% of his British and Irish juveniles being winners including Monmiral, Djakadam and Fusil Raffles. Classy chaser Wonderful Charm (2/1) would be the most esteemed of the relatives on the nearby damline, but his dam and third dam were each able to show good form at three and four years old and Muhtathir's broodmares have a 30% winner runner rate in the sphere. Message Personnel, whose form is denied a measure of credibility, has yet to show enough to suggest he is destined for the highest ranks and may have greater aspirations for the long term. Nevertheless, he is in good hands and not without potential so he could still be competitive in respectable company.

    Brainstorm bc Sophie Leech j3-1-1 (62,0 - 136.4) 101 106 (Guillaume Macaire > Francois-Marie Cottin)
    No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2
    Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm - a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiegne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch's money. Reportedly exported to Great Britain, it could be presumed that Brainstorm is now with Sophie Leech although this is speculation based on conjecture. Brainstorm's form is better than that of the standard juvenile hurdler and while he would have to improve considerably to match his initial reputation, he is capable of winning average races.

    Ramure bf Stuart Edmunds j3-0-0 (57.0 - 125.4) 95.5 (Patrice Lenogue)
    Maresca Sorrento (Blue Bresil){9-c}(0.33) 2/1 Ocean's Wind 1st 3900m 4yo Hurdle, Saint Malo 2016
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ramure
    One of the lesser lights of the recent imports is the thrice raced maiden Ramure. She made her racecourse bow on the first of June in Compiegne's Prix du Grand Maitre - a debutant contest won in the past by the likes of Analifet, Triana du Berlais and Cicalina. Sent off the outsider of the field, Ramure jumped reasonably well, but was firmly beaten when getting brought down at the penultimate flight. Nine days later, she reappeared at Dieppe where she jumped well enough in a prominent position, but weakened tamely on leaving the back stretch and ultimately finished tailed off. Taking a step up in class on her return to Compiegne, she put up another mostly sound round of hurdling and was still in a fighting position entering the straight before losing touch on the approach to the last, finishing just over eighteen lengths behind the winner. Patrice Lenogue has been responsible for three juveniles in the UK thus far with a winner coming in the form of David Pipe's €140,000 Hexham winner Great Tempo. Sire Maresca Sorrento has yet to have a winner from six juveniles outside of France, but he has gotten his fair share of juveniles in his native country. The dam failed to win over jumps but is a sibling of a Saint Malo winner and top class sorts in Tamarindo (3/1), Sun Storm (3/1) and Djakadam (3/2) descend from the third dam. The most intriguing part of Ramure's profile is her Stuart Edmunds whose winner to runner rate of 53.33% in the division is bettered only by Henderson, Mullins and Nicholls. Ramure's performances currently warrant a mark not exceeding the high 90s and if her valeur is taken into account when allotting a mark, she could be in trouble. All the same, she will be her underrated trainer's first recruit from the French jumping circuit so it will be interesting to see what he can achieve with this mostly fluent hurdler.

    Kotmask chg Gary Moore j1-0-0 (-) 94 (Gabriel Leenders)
    Masked Marvel (Martaline){20-a}(0.38) 0.5 Kapkiline 3rd Prix Ferdinand Dufaure (G1), Auteuil 2018
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/kotmask
    Something of an unknown quantity, Kotmask has just the one run to his name which in an ordinary contest at Dieppe in mid June. Sent off at 11/1 in an eleven runner contest, he took the early lead and was taking quite a pull, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. His jumping was marked by inexperience as he was often steady on the approach and untidy at numerous obstacles. Kotmask was still in contention turning for home, but ultimately found four of his rivals too strong and was beaten by just under thirteen lengths. The five exports of Gabriel Leenders last term included three winners on top of the Triumph and Punchestown placed Haut En Couleurs. Sire Masked Marvel does respectably with his three-year-old hurdlers in France, among whom is another Leenders export in Teahupoo. With a name like Kotmask, the damline is predictably inundated with talented French jumpers and a brief role call of nearby relatives includes half-sister Kapkiline, Kobrouk (2/1) Katgary (2/1), Kotkieglote (3/1), Katenko (3/1), Kotky West (3/1), with Kotkijet at 5/1. Gary Moore's prowess has already been covered in the profiles of his recruits with more discernible potential. The bare form of Kotmask's sole outing would only be worth a mark in the mid nineties, but he was still very green on that occasion and more can be learned of him in due course.

    FLAT RECRUITS
    Benaud brg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f7-2-0 (103) 105
    Australia (Danehill Dancer){1-e}(0.76) 4/1 General Cloney 3rd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2000
    At an opening price of 25/1, Bernaud is the first ante-post favourite for this season's Triumph Hurdle. This is presumably down to his connections and his official rating of 103 which he earned by finishing fourth in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. Since the 2004/05 season, 125 horses have competed in juvenile hurdles having ran to marks of at least 100 on the flat including two Triumph winners (Celestial Halo and Ivanovich Gorbatov), two Anniversary Hurdle victors (Faasel and Binocular), and a pair of Irish Grade One winners in Saldier and Sir Erec. Two of the aforementioned carried the McManus colours out of O'Brien yards as did Punchestown second Landofhopeandglory. However, while strong flat form can indicate success, it does not guarantee same as five of the nine triple-digit O'Brien juveniles failed to win during their juvenile campaigns. Looking at Benaud himself, he raced five times at two, getting off the mark at the fifth time of asking in a Leopardstown nursery off 79. He stepped up considerably on his seasonal reappearance when taking a twelve furlong rated race at Naas, and made further progress when fourth in the Queen's Vase. Doing his best work late on, he was in last position turning for home before making steady progress on the outside to ultimately finish within four lengths of the winner. While the form has yet to be tested extensively, runner-up Wordsworth has twice reached the frame behind Hurricane Lane in Group One company so Benaud's rating of 103 is justifiable. Australia made a promising start to his career as a sire of juveniles getting three winners from nine with his first crop, although none of his five last term was able to win and only one achieved an RPR exceeding 100. Danehill Dancer has a solid record as a damsire in the sphere and although Benaud's half-brother Eighteenhundred achieved little under either code, Italian winner Jar (3/1) and Triumph Hurdle third General Cloney (4/1) do appear further back on the damline. Stamina would appear to be absolutely assured for Benaud and while he still holds plenty of fancy entries on the flat, his being a gelding with Joseph O'Brien makes it likely that he will be seen over hurdles this term. Overall, Benaud certainly has the potential to be a useful addition to the sphere, although if the Triumph was held tomorrow, a couple of the French recruits would have more appealing prospects.

    Zinc White grg Oliver Greenall f5-2-0 (87) 92 (Ralph Beckett)
    Vadamos (Dalakhani){7-a}(0.37) 3/1 Master Wells 1st 2m1f Novices' Selling Hurdle, Exeter 2009
    The highest sum of money paid at public auction for a juvenile hurdler was 440,000 guineas for Purple Moon at the Tattersalls Autumn Horses-In-Training Sale in 2006. Ten have commanded figures exceeding £300,000, six of whom won during thier first campaigns over hurdles with €380,000 Arqana purchase Zubayr being the most successful when winning the Adonis in 2016. Lethal Steps, whose first win came at his eighth attempt - just shy of the end of season cut-off - was the latest when fetching 300,000 guineas at the 2018 July Sale. This was until the recent Goffs London Sale at Royal Ascot when Ralph Beckett's Zinc White was knocked down for £310,000. Starting his racing career last September, Zinc White failed to reach the frame on his first three outings at Salisbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton, showing only fair form in the process. Nevertheless, a gelding operation, winter break and considerable step up in trip brought about immediate improvement. Making his first venture into handicap company, his reappearance came at Wetherby off 69 in a five runner contest on the Eleventh of May. Ground conditions were such that the meeting was abandoned afterwards, but Zinc White took to them like a duck to standing water as he belied his keen running nature to keep on strongly having taken the lead just before the distance to win by the best part of four lengths. Nine days later, he defied a six pound penalty to complete his brace at Sandown by seven and a half lengths where he was ridden into the lead within the distance and eased in the final half-furlong. Though the form of neither race has worked out at this juncture, the winning time at Sandown was respectable on a seconds per furlong basis and his topspeed was the highest registered on that card. Furthermore, while he has pulled hard and been incline to edge during his races, these factors are more in keeping with inexperience than any alarming temperament issues. Though there are no immediate pointers to a hurdling career in his pedigree, there are clues which suggest solid potential. Out of the Pretty Polly winner Chinese White, nothing on the damline attempted this discipline until the third dam Eljazzi who along with producing black type fillies Rafha and Chiang Mai, is also the matriarch of a line which includes capable hurdlers Master Wells (3/1), Fnan (3/2), Everything Zain (3/2) and Elysian Flame (3/3). Vadamos has his first crop of jumpers this season and his sole runner to date, Javado, has shown respectable placed form without winning as of yet. Standing at an acceptable 1.65 meters, Vadamos won the Prix du Moulin over a mile but was also able to score over twelve furlongs and is the nephew of handicap hurdler Vadnagar. More pertinently, he is also a son of Monsun which puts him in the company of Maxios, Manduro, Gentlewave and the likes. Fifty horses formerly trained by Ralph Beckett have gone juvenile hurdling, fourteen of which have been winners giving a respectable rate of 28%. Though the improvement rate 27.5% is less encouraging, four of his six former inmates rated 80 and above on the flat were able to win during their initial campaigns. In Oliver Greenall, he joins a trainer going from strength to strength whose latest campaign was his most successful in the division to date with six wins split between three laudable types including Herbiers who capped his season with Class 2 handicap wins at Ascot and Sandown. Zinc White will have to do something quite exceptional to justify the fee paid for him, particularly as he has yet to demonstrate he can perform on anything firmer than a ploughed field. Nevertheless, a solid overall profile and discernible scope and class would still make him a very interesting recruit to the division.

    Parmenion bg Willie Mullins f1-1-0 (-) (Edouard Monfort)
    Soldier Hollow (Monsun){6-e}(0.41) 2/1 Ayrton Banks 1st 3YO Conditions Hurdle, Lyon-Parilly 2019
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/parmenion
    During the past ten years, Willie Mullis has sourced seven juvenile hurdlers from the Arqana Summer Sale. Six of these would win during their juvenile campaigns including Adriana des Mottes, Petite Parisienne and Diakali. The last named, costing €160,000 in 2012, was the most expensive graduate of the sale until yesterday when Parmenion was knocked down for €230,000. Parmenion's sole flat outing came on the 17th of June in a 2,200 meter, fourteen runner maiden contest at Craon. Settled behind the leaders, Parmenion hit the from 300 meters from home, needing only to be pushed out to win by three lengths. Runner-up Laishann, who finished fourth on his debut. has joined Gordon Elliott after fetching €82,000 at the same sale while third placed Ker Welen is a 33 (72.6) rated horse who placed second on his two prior outings, and again off the same mark at Chateaubriant. By Soldier Hollow and out of a Monsun mare, Parmenion is from the same cross as Saldier who was a useful juvenile for the Mullins yard in the 2017/18 campaign. The damline is also condusive to a successful campaign in the sphere as uncle Ayrton Banks won a three-year-old hurdle at Lyon and cousin Swnymor fell in the rescheduled Finale Hurdle when holding every chance. Evening Hush and Wolf Prince, both placed in Grade One juvenile hurdles, also appear on the distaff side at 3/2. Though only so much can be inferred from a sole flat start, Parmenion shaped with plenty of promise and his joining a leading yard along with a likeable pedigree bodes well for the upcoming season.

    Tashkhan bg Brian Ellison f9-3-2 (93) 102 (Emmet Mullins)
    Born To Sea (Raven's Pass){8-i}(0.87) 2/1 Tarkari 3rd Welsh Champion Hurdle, Ffos Las 2011
    Failing to show in three outings as a two-year-old, Tashkhan broke his duck on his reappearance in a ten furlong handicap at Navan in late March. Afterwards, then trainer Emmet Mullins stated that Tashkhan would make a nice three-year-old hurdler down the line. He soon joined a Brian Ellison yard with a good record in the divsion, whose winner to runner rate stands at 31.82%, with the likes Marsh Warbler, Nietzsche and Ultimate performing with credit for the Norton handler. Tashkhan's maiden win came off just 57, but such was the manner of his success that he ran off 70 his British debut at York in May. Denied by a short head, he would double his tally at Haydock at the end of May, running off 75 and scoring by over three lengths. Finishing midfield in the King George V handicap at Royal Ascot, a return to Haydock saw a resumption of winning ways as he landed a valuable fourteen furlong handicap off 86. He was a beaten odd-on favourite last time at Pontefract when failing to land a four runner contest off his new mark of 92. The winner's enterprising ride could be an excuse although it could simply be a case that he has reached the ceiling of his flat ability. Notwithstanding, stamina would not be a concern for the juvenile trip and his rating in the nineties would make him an above average recruit to the sphere should connections opt to go down that route (neither trainer nor owner are not shy about having runners over jumps). Tashkhan's pedigree speaks quite favourably for such a career as Born To Sea's progeny win their fair share of races in the division and include a couple of classy sorts in Aspire Tower and A Wave Of The Sea. Raven's Pass has not had any real success as a damsire, although Tashkhan's dam is a half-sister to three winning hurdlers including the useful Tarkari. It would be too soon to speculate on Tashkhan's potential in the grand scheme, and there may be a reliance on softer ground. Nevertheless, Brian Ellison does well with classy flat recruits (seven from the ten rated 80 and above were able to win in the sphere) and Tashkhan has more positives than negatives in his overall profile.

    Champion Green bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f3-0-2 (-) 87
    The Gurkha (Lope De Vega){4-k}(0.83) 2/1 Selective 3rd 2m Maiden Hurdle, Plumpton 2005
    This season sees The Gurkha have his first crop of juvenile hurdlers. Lightly raced and having his racing career truncated after winning the 2016 Sussex Stakes, The Gurkha had only one attempt beyond a mile where he was a beaten favourite when runner-up in the Eclipse. Galileo was more than capable of producing sires of winning juveniles with 73.91% of his stallions having winners in the sphere. The Gurkha was described as one of his speedier sons, and his height of 15.3½ hands is perhaps shorter than ideal. Nevertheless, he was not short on class and his granddam was a half-sister to useful hurdlers Prospect Wells and Brooklyn's Gold. The first son of The Gurkha to appear on a Triumph Hurdle list is the J P O'Brien trained, and J P McManus owned, Champion Green. A maiden after three starts, his best effort came on his second outing when fifth in a seven furlong Curragh contest last November where he was beaten no more than a length and a quarter by four subsequent winners all rated at least 100. Making his seasonal reappearance in a Galway maiden over an extended mile at the end of July, he did not match that form, finishing three-quarters of a length behind a 77 rated animal. He did not settle during the contest, although this could be forgiven as it was his first run in nine months and he also ran fairly green in general. Stamina for hurdling can not be guaranteed on breeding as along with being by one of Galileo's faster sons, speedy types Etlaala (2/1) and Battaash (2/2) dominate the nearby damline. Notwithstanding, he was doing his best work at Galway towards the finish so the minimum trip over hurdles could still be within his scope. Champion Green is capable of winning races, but given the patchy nature of his profile, the 50/1 currently on offer for the Triumph Hurdle is more fair than generous.

    Champagne Piaff bbg Gary Moore f4-1-0 (83) 86
    Le Havre (High Chaparral){8-f}(0.85) 4/1 Kruguyrova 2nd Prix de Chambly (Listed 3yo Fillies' Hurdle), Auteuil 2006
    Gary Moore has yet to win a Grade One juvenile hurdle, but has still done well with the likes of Goshen, Pace Shot and Nassalam and has long been a force to be reckoned with in the division. Several of his best were those he trained on the flat himself (Goshen, Chris Pea Green, Sussex Ranger, Altihar, Mister Chow) and his first such horse to appear on the Triumph lists this term is Champagne Piaff. A winner at the second time of asking last Autumn, when taking a Salisbury novice stakes on soft ground, he took his chance in the Horris Hill but found the step up in class beyond him. His return came in an eleven furlong Goodwood handicap at the end of July where he finished sixth of eleven, three and a quarter lengths from the winner. Champagne Piaff travelled well enough, but did not look entirely straightforward under pressure. Sire Le Havre has had one winning juvenile from five in Britain and Ireland, a fairly standard figure which is reflected in his winner/runner rate in France which stands at 18.92%. High Chaparral has a good record in this discipline as a sire, but is not as successful a damsire and the nearest jumps relative on the damline is the talented Kruguyova at 4/1. Nevertheless, there is enough to like about Champagne Piaff's profile and his overall flat form is encouraging when accounting for the fact that of the seven who were rated 75 and above for Gary Moore on the flat before going juvenile hurdling, five were winners who each recorded RPRs of 115 or better. The yard likely has stronger recruits imported from France, but there is enough to suggest that Champagne Piaff should at least be up to winning in the division should he go down that route.

    Too Friendly bg Dan Skelton f6-1-2 (85) 91 (George Scott)
    Camelot (One Cool Cat){14-c}(0.86) 2/2 Arch Stanton 2nd 3m½f Handicap Hurdle (97), Roscommon 2018
    In 2019, the Gredleys sent Allmankind to Dan Skelton for whom he won graded contests at Cheltenham and Chepstow prior to placing third in the Triumph. Last season, Stepney Causeway followed suit and landed a four timer during his first campaign in the sphere. This time around, the first such horse is set to be Too Friendly who left George Scott with a rating of 85. Placed on his first two racecourse appearances at Lingfield over the winter, Too Friendly returned after a break to win the ten furlong maiden at Doncaster's Lincoln meeting, winning under a confident ride with something to spare from dual subsequent winner Dhushan. He then took a step up in class when contesting the Listed Blue Riband Trial at Epsom and while he finished sixth of eight, it still marked a career best. Too Friendly had taken a keen hold at Epsom and though cheekpieces were applied for his two subsequent outings, they failed to negate the issue as he finished closer to last than first in handicaps at Royal Ascot and at Newmarket. In Dan Skelton, Too Friendly joins one of the strongest yards in the division who along with a healthy winners to runners rate of 38.96%, also boasts some talented sorts in Bedrock, Azzuri, Nube Negra and Cabot Cliffs along with the aforementioned Gredley representatives. None of George Scott's six former inmates have won in the division, including Olympic Odyssey, a son of Camelot, who joined Harry Fry for six figures in 2018. Camelot made a strong start to his career as a stallion in the division with his first crop spearheaded by Sir Erec and Gardens Of Babylon. However, his winner/runner rate has flattened down to 22.58% with only one of his nine runners finding the winners enclosure last term. One Cool Cat has a 30% winner/runner rate as a damsire, but while Too Friendly's granddam was the highly talented filly Marling, jumpers are a sparse breed on the damline with moderate Arch Stanton (2/2) being the only nearby relative to show form in the sphere. Overall, Too Friendly's profile is much like the curate's egg as the positives are often negated by negatives. While he would have every right to win in the sphere, one would like to see more consistency in the profile before getting too enthusiastic.

    Impulsive One bg Nicky Henderson f8-1-5 (80) 85 (William Haggas)
    Union Rags (Lonhro){4-m}(1.77) 2/2 El Picador 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Musselburgh 2019
    Impulsive One is not yet featured in the Triumph lists, but given that he is owned by Simon Munir and has recently joined Nicky Henderson, his inclusion might not be too far away. Previously trained by William Haggas, whose former inmates have a healthy 31.82% winner runner rate in the division, Impulsive One won his penultimate outing as a two year old when landing a Bath nursery off 73 last September. Though yet to taste success this term, he placed third in handicaps at Ripon and Redcar over eight and ten furlongs respectively, before finishing second of four back at Ripon over twelve furlongs on his latest outing. Impulsive One travels well in his races, and seemingly has little issue with middle distances. However, there does appear to be a marked preference for firm ground and his pedigree offers little respite in this regard. American bred, he is from a Union Rags x Lonhro cross which, while not alarming where stamina is concerned, does not forebode much success over hurdles. Some horses on the distaff side have performed on soft, and the moderate winning juvenile El Picador appears at 2/2 on the damline. Ground concerns and the lack of jumping credentials from sirelines are obviously detrimental to the overall profile. Nevertheless, he is not without stamina or quality so while sights might have to be kept low and on specific targets, Impulsive One can still be competitive in the sphere.

    Laishann chg Gordon Elliott f2-0-1 (-) (Francis-Henri Graffard)
    Footstepsinthesand (Teofilo){6-e}(0.57) 3/3 Kyalco 3rd Prix du President de la Republique (G3,62), Auteull 2017
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/laishann
    Another graduate of the Arqana Summer sale, Laishaan was picked up by Gordon Elliott for €82,000. However, in contrast to the Mullins roll call, the master of Cullentra has not been so successful with his Arqana recruits as with the exception of Vercingetorix who was bought privately, his three purchases failed to win in fourteen attempts as juveniles (although Cause Of Causes would eventually go on to finish second in the Grand National). Notwithstanding, the yard's overall record with French flat recruits does make for better reading with half of the fourteen said horses winning as juveniles including Farclas, Clarcam and Mitchouka. A twice raced maiden on the flat for Francis-Henri Graffard (whose sole export Farout won a Cork four-year-old maiden for Willie Mullins in May), Laishann finished a staying on fourth at Granville in May prior to finishing second behind Parmenion at Craon. Ridden more prominently on that occasion, he proved no match for the Mullins bound gelding but showed a good deal of tenacity to hold on for second. The form of the race is touched upon in Parmenion's profile and through Ker Welen a rating in the mid seventies seems appropriate for Laishann. The Footstepsinthesand x Teofilo cross is not without promise as while neither have produced any top class juveniles, both produce more than their fair share of individual winners as sire and damsire respectively. Rather unusually for an Aga Khan bred, Laishann's pedigree is not teeming with jumpers as the closest notable relative is the good handicap chaser Kyalco at 3/3. Laishann (for the time being at least) is set to represent a leading yard and he has the potential on paper to be useful, but he would not be an obvious sort for top honours at this juncture.

    Ebasari bg Willie Mullins f6-0-1 (72) 77 (Micheael Halford)
    Lope de Vega (Azamour){13-c}(1.77) 3/1 Ebaziyan 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2007
    In 2005, the Aga Khan bred Ebaziyan left John Oxx's yard for €150,000 as a three-year-old. While he would not see a hurdle in public until he was six, he made up for lost time by landing the Supreme Novices' Hurdle for Willie Mullins. Sixteen years later, Ebaziyan's sister's grandson made the move to Closutton after leaving Michael Halford and the Aga Khan colours for €47,000 at the Goffs Online summer sale. Though he has yet to reach the frame in six outings, Ebasari has made progress this term and carries a rating of 72 which would be a fair reflection of his abilities. His best effort came last time out in a ten furlong Roscommon handicap when third of six off the same mark. He came into the race with every chance, although he has given the impression that he is either green or reluctant to put his best foot forward. Apart from the aforementioned Ebaziyan, Ebasari's pedigree is not massively encouraging as both sire Lope de Vega and damsire Azamour have below average winner to runner rates of 13.64% and 7.69% respectively. Both juveniles to have made the switch from Halford to Mullins were able to win during their initial campaigns so an average race could be within Ebasari's scope. Nevertheless, the yard will likely have stronger hands to play during the season.

    Brunello bg Henry De Bromhead f2-0-0 (-) 76
    Muhtathir (Peintre Celebre){1-l}(1.00) 2/1 Lone Ranger 3rd 1m7½f Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2013
    Henry de Bromhead boasts an enviable record as a trainer of National Hunt horses which includes fifteen Cheltenham Festival winners, six of whom found glory in the 2021 edition. However, for all he has made an art of his profession, his record with juvenile hurdlers is less exceptional. Of the forty juveniles he has trained since 2004/05, only four (including Triumph winner Quilixios, who was trained by Gordon Elliott during much of the season) have been winners and only the aforementioned and Aspire Tower achieved RPRs exceeding 130. Nevertheless, he already has a charge listed in the Triumph markets in the shape of Brunello. Making his racecourse debut in a Tipperary maiden in April over an extended twelve furlongs, Brunello travelled well enough, if looking somewhat green under pressure, and was not disgraced in finishing midfield. His sights were set higher on his second, and latest, outing when taking in the Yeats Stakes - a listed race at Navan over thirteen furlongs. Starting at 80/1, he was predictably outclassed, finshing eighteen lengths behind the winner and beating just one home - but largely running to the same mid 70s standard of his debut. Sire Muhtathir (Quel Destin, Twinlight, Indietir, Kruguyrova) does very well with young hurdlers wherever they race (36.36% winners to runners in Britain and Ireland, 26.67% in France) and damsire Peintre Celebre is similarly strong in his role. Furthermore, while the average Lone Ranger is the closest jumps relative on the damline, useful types Baguette Magique (3/1) and Lounaos (3/2) are not too far removed. Brunello's inclusion in the Triumph lists is largely speculative at the moment and the yard already has a more substantial prospect in the unquoted Foxy Girl. Notwithstanding, while he and his trainer still have plenty to prove insofar as championship aspirations are concerned, there is enough in the pedigree to make him an interesting recruit.

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    Morning all.

    Not sure why I have done this or where I think it could possibly lead, and am totally out of my comfort zone insofar as self-promotion is concerned. Nevertheless, I have put the above on a blog which is linked through this tweet;-

    https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/stat...28074427207681

    If you enjoyed the above prospects preview and partake in the whole twitter thing then it would be really cool if you could re-tweet, like, and so forth

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    Ireland's third juvenile hurdle of the season is set to take place tomorrow at Killarney. Set against the backdrop of Ross Castle and McGillycuddy Reeks, its glorious landscape helps to offset the generally mediocre nature of juvenile hurdles held at the venue. Winners of such contests have a below average seasonal RPR of 112.33 and of the 143 participants since 2005, only three went on to collect black type that season. Chica Buena, sixth in this race in 2018, won the listed fillies' hurdle at Aintree, Dreux finished third at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting while Grey Waters, who won this contest in 2017, would finish third in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Tomorrow's edition does not threaten to be exceptional as the newcomers are without any flat wins between them, and though six have hurdling experience, the only one to make it beyond a single hurdle finished tailed off. A sharp, undulating, left-handed track, winning juveniles at Killarney have average DIs of 1.56 median, 1.73 mean, which are the fifth highest in Ireland, indicating that stamina would not be at a premium. The clear round rate of 98.59% is higher than average and those making their hurdles bow win slightly more than their fair share of races. The going is currently good although showers are forecast in the interim.

    Admiral Brown bbg Henry De Bromhead f5-0-0 (48) 55 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
    Bated Breath (Dalakhani){4-k}(0.56) 2/1 Pure Science 1st 2m4f Novices' Handicap Chase (120), Uttoxeter 2014
    Unable to better seventh position, or finish closer than seven lengths to the winner in six flat outings, Admiral Brown went into his hurdles debut at Roscommon with a rating of just 48. Though a nephew of fairly useful chaser Pure Science and out of a Dalakhani mare, his pedigree is noting out of the ordinary and neither of Bated Breath's previous two juveniles have achieved anything in the sphere. He started the shorter of the Henry De Bromhead pair on the day, but his profile did not really warrant the 10/1 starting price. Setting off just behind the leaders, he only made it to the first flight where he was brought down.

    Dies Its Eine bg Mrs Prunella Dobbs f1-0-0 (-) 0 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
    Gutaifan (Invincible Spirit){9-f}(1.22) 2/1 Unaccompanied 1st Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2011
    Though he failed to show on his sole flat outing at Down Royal in June, Dies Its Eine is a nephew of the highly talented juvenile filly Unaccompanied. However, while Prunella Dobbs has had a winning juvenile hurdler, Dies Its Eine was friendless in the ring ahead of his hurdling bow at Roscommon, going from an opening 40/1 to 150/1. Setting off in a prominent position, he blundered at the first before getting brought down a split second later. He continued to gallop loose although, while not averse to jumping more hurdles, he was not particularly fluent without his rider.

    Doctor Brown Bear bg Brendan W Duke f2-0-0 (-) 65
    Estidhkaar (Bahri){1-l}(1.50) 2/1 Chica Buena 1st Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Aintree 2018
    Making his racecourse debut in a ten furlong Naas maiden back in April, Doctor Brown Bear finished tenth of fourteen, eight lengths behind the winner and half-a-length behind the improved Silaiyli. However, while a promising debut at face value, he was the only one to fade back through the field among those racing prominently and may be flattered by the result. Returning in mid August for a similar contest at The Curragh, he set off prominently but was checked in the early stages and fell through the field before plugging on to finish just over eight lengths behind the winner, tenth of twenty-two. Trainer Brendan Duke has a good record in the sphere with a healthy winners to runners rate of 28.95%. He ran Doctor Brown Bear's auntie, Chica Buena, in this contest back in 2018 where she finished sixth before going on to win the listed fillies' race at Aintree that December. Half-sister Rock Chica was also a winning juvenile last season, but while Bahri has a solid record as a damsire in the sphere, Estidkhaar's two representatives have achieved little and sons of Dark Angel are not renowned for producing juvenile hurdlers. Though not copper bottomed, there is enough in Doctor Brown Bear's profile to make him of interest in this company and though his trainer's juveniles tend to improve with experience, three of thirty-eight did score first time and the yard enjoyed a recent winner at Dundalk.

    Real Dude chg Michael Winters f4-0-0 (54) 54
    Dawn Approach (Nayef){4-g}(1.29) 3/1 Zabriskie 3rd 2m1½f Novices Claiming Hurdle, Fontwell 1999
    Former inmates of Roger Charlton's win their fair share of juvenile hurdles, one of whom being the useful Old Guard. However, only 23.08% improve for the switch in codes and Real Dude does not bring a solid profile to the table. While residing at Beckhampton Stables, Real Dude ran four times as a two-year-old, looking green and finishing closer to last than first on each occasion. In Michael Winters, he has joined a trainer with one winner from his five in the division, coming in a weak Cork maiden in March 2017, although he is currently on the cold list. The pedigree offers no respite as Dawn Approach is without a winner from ten individuals in the division, and the only jumps relative on the damline was the very moderate Zabriskie at 3/1.

    Rich Law No Law bg M Keane f8-0-2 (45) 52 j1-0-0 (-) 23 24
    Lawman (Singspiel){2-f}(0.78) 2/2 Percy Street 6th Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle (G3,124), Cheltenham 2017
    Starting his career with Kevin Prendergast, Rich Law No Law collected a couple of places in a pair of nurseries last autumn. However, his final two starts of last year were below par and he joined Maurice Keane after fetching €5,500 at the Goffs February sale. He was well beaten off 46 on his first start for his new handler - who himself is without any jumps winner since September 2012. Rich Law No Law is the only runner in this field to have completed a hurdles race, doing so at Ballinrobe eleven days ago. However, he was completely unfancied and started at 250/1. Always in the rear division, he was steady at his hurdles (reported by his rider to have jumped green) and finished the race tailed off and tired. His pedigree is at least reasonable as Lawman has a fairly solid record as a sire of juveniles and cousin Percy Street finished sixth in the 2017 Fred Winter. However, that glimmer of hope from his pedigree has been diminished by what he has shown on the track this year.

    Stand Staunch bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
    Camelot (Danehill){14-b}(0.76) 3/1 Amazing Sail 1st 2m5f Novices' Selling Handicap Hurdle (88), Sedgefield 1997
    Unraced on the flat, Stand Staunch made his first racecourse appearance at Roscommon early this month. Going out to 12/1 in the morning he opened in the ring at 15/2 before being backed down to 4/1 at the off. Just about in mid division, Stand Staunch was subject to a dramatic hampering which saw him get brought down and emerge with a bloody nose. Though with Joseph O'Brien, a trainer who won this race in 2017 and has a solid 25% winners to runners rate in the sphere, Stand Staunch has a fairly mixed profile. Sire Camelot enjoyed a fine first season in the sphere, and while his numbers were down the past two seasons, his overall figures are still healthy. The damline is less compelling as it largely consists of sprinters with the nearest winning jumper being the selling class Amazing Sail at 3/1. Furthermore, the record of previously unraced horses in juvenile hurdles is modest and most need several runs before approaching standard strike rates. The trainer himself has failed to win with any of his nine unraced debutants in the sphere. While the money before his debut may have suggested a good performance was anticipated, the profile on paper is not particularly solid and it remains to be seen if his first racecourse outing left an impression on his psyche.

    Supposedtobe grg James M Barrett f8-0-1 (69) 76
    Epaulette (Mastercraftsman){1-w}(0.60) 2/2 Kendancer 2nd 2m½f 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Punchestown 2020
    The most experienced newcomer in this line-up, Supposedtobe had eight starts on the flat with his best placing being a third on his debut at Tipperary last October. Below that form in four subsequent outings, he put up an improved performance in a ten furlong handicap at Leopardstown in early June. Running off a mark of 70, he made headway to move into a prominent position turning for home and was just about in second position at the furlong marker. However, he carried his head fairly awkwardly under pressure and lost five places before the finish line - albeit to horses who have since maintained solid form. Down in trip next time for a mile handicap at Killarney, Supposedtobe was not disgraced in finishing in midfield, but did not have the pace to make an impression on the contest. He was last seen in first time blinkers when running just below his best over a mile back at Leopardstown - once again looking awkward under pressure. James Barrett is zero from two with his juvenile hurdlers and has gone over a year without a jumps winner, although he did score on the flat last week. Epaulette failed to win with his first two runners in the sphere, but Scrappy Jack has helped him out by landing a double at Newton Abbot last month. Mastercraftsman's recent passing is a great loss to the industry and in particular, the juvenile hurdling division as his record of a sire was well above average, with no stallion producing more winners since Mastercraftman's progeny hit the scene in 2014/15. Nevertheless, there are signs that he could be also be potent as a damsire with his early record in that role being two winners from five including Talking About You who won two listed contests last term. Supposedtobe's flat form is perfectly adequate in the context of this race and his overall profile is not without potential, although there would be a degree of concern regarding his attitude under pressure.

    War Thunder bg D J Ryan f5-0-1 (73) 75
    Cityscape (Nicolette){1-w}(1.67) 3/1 Great Heights 2nd 2m Maiden Hurdle, Ayr 1993
    Officially the race's highest rated newcomer, War Thunder arrives here with a flat mark of 73 following five outings in that sphere. Starting off with Richard Hannon, War Thunder was beaten no more than five lengths in a couple of starts on the all weather last autumn, running green on both occasions. Fetching 24,000gns at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he was gelded over the winter and his first outing for David Ryan came in a ten furlong Navan maiden on heavy ground back in March. He starting at 150/1 and ran accordingly, doing only moderate late work and finishing nearly thirty lengths behind the winner. Just over a month later, he stepped up his form considerably to finish third in a ten furlong Sligo maiden, beaten five lengths and a head by a pair of subsequent winners. Though the less testing, good to yielding, ground may have been in his favour, he was also the beneficiary of a race which rather fell apart around him. War Thunder failed to confirm the promise when last seen in a Sligo handicap where though he led for a long way, folded very tamely and finished tailed off, beating just the one home. The remainder of his profile offers little encouragement as sire Cityscape is without a winning juvenile from five, close relatives Taanif (0.5), Coumenole (2/2) and Great Heights (3/1) were moderate over jumps, and the trainer is without a winner of any description for over two years. War Thunder's best form entitles him to consideration, although the reliability of said form is questionable and the remainder of his profile is without substance.

    Alice Kitty chf Denise Foster f6-1-2 (74) 77 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
    Bobby's Kitten (Galileo){1-n}(0.82) 2/1 Kilburn 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Plumpton 2011
    The only previous winner set to face the starter in tomorrow's contest, Alice Kitty, broke her duck at the fifth time of asking in a modest Ballinrobe claimer over an extended nine furlongs back in June. Sold afterwards for €5,000, she was initially set to join Philip Makin in Yorkshire but instead made her hurdling for Denise Foster. Her new handler has yet to saddle a winner in the sphere from twenty-four attempts, and those who leave Jessica Harrington to go juvenile hurdling tend not to improve for the switch in codes as illustrated by an improvement rate of just 18.18%. Nevertheless, when she made her hurdles debut at Roscommon, these factors did not prevent Alice Kitty from starting the day as 5/2 favourite and while she opened at 4/1 in the ring, she was clipped in half a point by flagfall. Sent off in a prominent position, she hesitated on the approach to the first where she failed to get high enough and took a crashing fall, bringing down much of the field in the process. Among the injuries she was reported to have sustained were an overreach on the right pastern, a right shoulder contusion, a skin wound, and blood at the left nostril. Mercifully, she has apparently been able to recover from this baptism of floor and hooves. The first hurdles runner for Bobby's Kitten (the El Prado sireline is not without its winners in the sphere), she is a niece of winning hurdler Kilburn, and of the hurdles placed Popmurphy. Prior to her Roscommon fiasco, Alice Kitty's profile would not have been without merit. However, the nature of that experience does not give rise to optimism going forward.

    Annwyl Angharad bf Edward P Mitchell f4-0-0 (-) 35 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
    Dylan Thomas (Mukaddamah){1-h}(2.00) 0.5 Luddenmore 2nd 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park 2011
    During her four flat outings, Annwyl Angharad finished last on each occasion, never finishing nearer than nineteen lengths to the winner, and starting at odds upwards of 250/1 on three starts this term. Sire Dylan Thomas has a 21.21% winners to runners rate, but the trainer has yet to taste success in the sphere from four runners. Drifting from 80/1 to 200/1 ahead of her Roscommon bow, Annwyl Angharad was in mid-division when getting too close to the first and unshipping Simon Torrens independently of the surrounding carnage. She then ran out at the next when running loose.

    Feigh chf W P Mullins Unraced
    Well Chosen (Great Palm){14-a}(0.80) 2/1 Belmount 1st 3m1f Handicap Chase (127), Hereford 2016
    Willie Mullins has a record with juvenile hurdlers which is basically the envy of everybody in the business. However, Feigh, set to be his first runner of the campaign, failed to sell as a foal at the Tattersalls Ireland sale, passing through the ring with a bid of just €1,800. Bred to be a chaser for the long term, Feigh is by a Well Chosen whose sole juvenile failed to score. Her uncle Belmount was a fairly useful staying chaser and the likes of Afistfullofdollars (3/2) Gaye Brief, Gaye Chance and Black Humour (each at 4/1) also appear on the damline. While any representative of the in-form Willie Mullins would automatically be entitled to some respect, particularly in a race of this standard, it is worth noting that neither of his racecourse debutants have scored in the sphere, nor have either of his juveniles who ran at Killarney.

    Strong prospects
    1. Supposedtobe
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Doctor Brown Bear
    3. Stand Staunch
    4. Feigh
    Feasible prospects
    5. Alice Kitty
    6. War Thunder
    Moderate prospects
    7. Dies Its Eine
    8. Admiral Brown
    Negligible prospects
    9. Rich Law No Law
    10. Real Dude
    11. Annwyl Angharad

  8. #26
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    An update on the season's prospects piece;- Champagne Piaff just ran out a convincing winner of the ten furlong handicap at Windsor this evening. Though still clearly green, his credentials have certainly been boosted by today's performance and it would be good to see him over hurdles this winter. 66/1 for the Triumph is still available and while I would not opine on whether or not someone should take that price, it is at least better than the 50/1 on Champagne Green, and 40/1 on Caramelised.

    Since I am here giving an update, it hopefully makes my twitter plug slightly less obnoxious... Will try not to get too spammy with the whole self-promotion thing...

    Here is the tweet for the preview of tomorrow's race,

    https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/stat...16069111369731

    and you can follow me at @HarchibaldS

    If you like the preview, please share, re-tweet and so forth as it would really help me a lot while I am starting out. If you do not like the preview then definitely re-tweet it so the world gets to see how terrible it is

  9. #27
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    Preview review
    The four runners who were given reasonable prospects and better filled the first four places, coming a long way clear in the process. While the finishing order was not entirely precise, the strong prospect at least exceeded market expectations to run into a place, although the noted concerns over his temperament did manifest during the closing stages. The winner was a class apart, although her profile was such that had she been with almost any other trainer, her prospects would have been dismissed. In the event, she was representing Willie Mullins and to highlight a pitfall in previewing races in advance, she was well backed during the day. Given that the front two had not previously raced on the flat or abroad, there could be an argument to not underestimate unraced debutants in the future. However, statistics over fifteen seasons show that such horses still have a poor record, regardless of how they are bred. Indeed, among the sires who top the table for unraced juveniles who failed to win in the sphere are the likes of Balko, Jeremy, Old Vic and Presenting, while the damsire contingent includes Good Thyne, Orchestra, Supreme Leader and Turgeon. As such, while the preview was imperfect (which will essentially apply to all previews), the one for this contest was largely satisfactory and demands little reflection.

    Race review
    Juvenile hurdles at Killarney generally take little winning and as the subsequent strike rate of its participants is just 8.15% (sixth lowest in Ireland - average across all courses is 10.85%), they rarely have much of an impact going forward. This afternoon's contest looked little different beforehand, but the winner, already a rarity in making a winning racecourse debut in the sphere, could emerge to be an exception. Though not as theatrical as the curtain raiser at Roscommon, this race was not without incident as three runners departed at the first, and one of the loose horses almost carried out the winner passing the stands for the second circuit. Drama notwithstanding, most of the field travelled well enough in themselves, although the overall quality of jumping left something to be desired. While the field set off at a decent clip, the overall pace through the contest was not taxing once the runners had settled and the winning time was some ten seconds slower than the handicap taken by a 119 rated horse half an hour later on the card. Nevertheless, the field finished strung out with the prominent horses having every right to fill their positions. While the winner's ceiling is difficult to establish, and the bare form behind does not amount to a great deal, it would still be fair to assume that the form, for what it is, should be fairly reliable.

    Feigh passed through the ring as a foal without selling, attracting a bid of only €1,800. By Well Chosen and related to Belmount (2/1), Afistfullofdollars (3/2) and Black Humour (4/1), she is bred more to be a staying chaser than a juvenile hurdler. Going into the contest, unraced debutants had a strike rate of just 2.24% in all juvenile hurdles since 2004/05 and were she with any other trainer, she would have started as an outsider. However, her trainer is master of all trades, including juvenile hurdlers, Willie Mullins. While his record with unraced juvenile hurdlers and those sent to Killarney was barren in isolation, Feigh attracted plenty of market support through the day going from a shade of odds against in the morning, to 4/6 at flagfall. Sent off into a prominent position, though she was keen in the opening stages, she had to be ridden into her early hurdles and was steady over the first three. Popping over the fourth, she was fine again over the last on the first circuit before averting potential calamity when the loose Dies Its Eine almost carried her out of the contest shortly after passing the stands. The incident wiped out her lead of a good dozen lengths, but it is to her credit that she put in her best jump of the contest at the very next flight. Feigh settled into a good rhythm from there and had effortlessly moved into a lead of half-a-dozen lengths going towards the penultimate flight. Though she made her first bad error of the contest at this hurdle, hitting it hard and stumbling on landing, she merely had to be given a bit of rein approaching the final flight and while she was slightly untidy once again, she cruised along the run-in to win by a very easy nine lengths. Value for more than the winning margin, not to mention what she lost passing the stands, Feigh was conspicuously inexperienced, but she will have learned a lot from this outing. Her quick recovery after almost being carried out is also testament to her likeable attitude. Though quantifiably, it is difficult to suggest she achieved a great deal here, she did demonstrate a healthy amount of promise and this performance would put her atop the provisional early standings in the division. Her pedigree suggests that better can be expected in the longer term but it will still be interesting to see what she can achieve during her first season against stronger types. 113

    Stand Staunch was an unraced debutant going into the Roscommon contest early this month, but being a Joseph O'Brien trained son of Camelot meant that his profile was not without substance, and he was the subject of steady market support prior to taking a beating during the first flight fracas. Emerging with a bloody nose, it was a matter of speculation as to how much of an impact was left on his psyche. Steady in the ring and sent off the 5/1 second favourite, Stand Staunch was slightly slow at the first, but appeared to show no ill effects from the experience from thereon. Settled behind the leaders, he jumped well during the first circuit, but had dropped to mid division going out for the second time. He was shaken up after wandering and getting close to the seventh flight and had yet to make inroads when blundering badly at three out. Going through the top of two out, he had no pretentions of catching the winner, but he did manage to win the battle for second place on the run-in. Stand Staunch has plenty of scope and he showed enough here to suggest he should at least be competitive at this level - even if his future lies over further, or softer. 104

    Supposedtobe had the benefit of eight racecourse outings to his name coming into this race and while he placed no better than third on the flat, the best of his form gave him a chance in this field. Despite his trainer being winless in this discipline, there was enough in his pedigree to suggest that the switch in codes could bring some improvement. Setting off in midfield before moving into a more prominent position, Supposedtobe posted much the best round of jumping in this contest. He was left in front going out onto the second circuit and was briefly lit up by his involuntary position, but settled better once he was given a lead. Unable to keep tabs on the leader, he was niggled along turning onto the cross section and, distracted by lateral approach of the loose horse, he went right and rather tripped over the penultimate hurdle. He was untidy again at the final flight and similar to what he had done on the flat, was reluctant to give best when pressed for second, ceding that position without any real resistance. Supposedtobe is perfectly capable of performing in this sphere and while not copper bottomed, his stamina should have been enough to see out today's trip. However, his attitude is a different matter entirely and until he proves otherwise, his prospects for actually winning a race will be sketchy. 103

    Doctor Brown Bear had shown fair form during two flat outings, is closely related to a pair of winning juvenile hurdlers and his trainer has a solid record in the division. Starting the day at 10/1, he halved in price during the day's exchanges before drifting back out to 9/1 at the off. Held up towards the rear, he hurdled reasonably to begin with, but skewed and stumbled over the fourth and was close and untidy two flights later. He made some headway along the back, but never threatened to get involved in the contest and merely plugged on before getting outpaced on the run in. Finishing five and a half lengths behind the third and a distance clear of the remainder, this was not a debut outing without some promise and he was not far off his flat performances here. There is scope for improvement in his hurdling and his trainer's juveniles tend to improve from their debuts. Doctor Brown Bear's relatives did well in the sphere on soft ground and that could be the key to him leaving this effort behind. 98

    Rich Law No Law was placed in a pair of nurseries for Kevin Prendergast last autumn, but since joining Maurice Keane for €5,500 at Goffs in February, has shown nothing either at Cork on the flat, or Ballinrobe over hurdles. Starting the race in a prominent position, he was soon relegated to midfield before passing the stands, and would only continue to lose ground. He was steady at several of his flights and his hurdling was never better than fair. This was a step up on his debut performance, but there is still a wide gap between where he is, and where he needs to be if he wants to be competitive over hurdles. 66

    Admiral Brown is rated just 48 on the flat, and while he is with a trainer firmly established at the top table of national hunt racing, Henry de Bromhead's record with juvenile hurdlers is not the strongest. Admiral Brown's starting price of 10/1 was not warranted by his profile and after a steady, big and slow jump at the first, he was rear-ended by Dies Its Eine on landing. From there, he raced towards the rear of midfield and his jumping was steady, slow and untidy at most of his flights. Ultimately beaten by over fifty lengths, Admiral Brown has shown nothing thus far to suggest he can perform in this discipline. 63

    Annwyl Angharad was very modest on the flat and she was completely unfancied when unseating at the first on her hurdles bow. While she was able to complete on this occasion, there was next to no aptitude in her jumping and she finished hopelessly tailed off. 0

    Real Dude started his career with Roger Charlton, but was modest in four outings and was making his first appearance here after a nine month absence. Drifting from 25/1 to 66/1 in the ring, he set off in a prominent position but was burdened by slow and untidy jumping throughout. He fell through the field along the back stretch before being pulled up two from home. 0

    Alice Kitty was well fancied ahead of her hurdling debut at Roscommon where she was making her first appearance since being claimed out of Jessica Harrington's yard for €5,000. She only made it as far as the first there and sustained numerous injuries during the melee. Ridden into the first flight here, she appeared to jump it well enough. However, from the camera angle offered, it looked like a very soft unseat by her conditional rider. While it may be unfair to call out such a thing for a young rider, to not do so would also be unfair on the horse. There was some bunching up going on where the unseat took place so in the absence of definitive footage, the benefit of doubt can be given. Alice Kitty galloped on unharmed, and avoided causing interference when opting not to jump the third. 0

    War Thunder, if his best flat effort can be taken at face value, brought just about the strongest form into this contest. However, there is reason to suspect that he was flattered by his Sligo third and his pedigree offered little encouragement for his hurdling bow. Unconsidered in the market, he was towards the rear when he was hesitant on arrival at the first, jumped steeply and untidily before getting rid of his rider. He did the same at the second flight without a rider in the saddle and decided to follow Alice Kitty's lead in calling it a day at the third. 0

    Dies Its Eine is a nephew of the classy juvenile hurdler Unaccompanied, but that is the extent of his credentials. He was brought down at the first on his hurdling debut and after jumping into the rear of Admiral Brown, would depart at the same flight here. Galloping on loose, he clambered over the third and almost took out Feigh when passing the stands. Whenever he jumped again, it was untidy and it is becoming apparent that he has inherited nothing from his auntie that would be of much use in this discipline. 0

  10. #28
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    Juvenile hurdling returns to Great Britain Today with Stratford hosting its third, and fourth, such contests this season. Generally speaking, field sizes for juvenile hurdles held during August are the third lowest on the calendar, with the mean of 9.76 greater than only June and July. However, due to a gap of over three weeks in the division, prolonged by Fontwell's abandonment, a glut of entries were made for this contest with twenty-two runners standing their ground. As a result, Stratford's race has become the first juvenile hurdle in Britain to be split since the 16th of October 2019 when Lady Shanawell and Maria Magdalena won a division apiece at Wetherby.

    Stratford's juvenile hurdles, the majority of which take place during the summer, are generally less competitive than the standard contest in the division with the average winner's seasonal RPR of 112.72 being a near half-stone below par. Nevertheless, good juveniles have trod The Bard's boards and this particular race, last held in 2015, was taken that year by subsequent Triumph fifth Leoncavallo, while 2008 winner Simarian would win and place at Cheltenham in the following months. While Langafel and Sacre Pierre were not amongst the entries who stood their ground here, the two divisions each have enough intriguing runners to make both races up to scratch. The first division's experienced runners are headed by dual winner Scrappy Jack and course and distance placed Fred Bear, while Dan Skelton, Colin Tizzard and Neil King are represented among the flat recruits. Half an hour later, Britain's leading juvenile Caramelised should be kept honest by representatives of Stuart Edmunds, Amy Murphy and Sophie Leech. Though a sharp, left-handed circuit, dosage index figures from Stratford's juvenile hurdles indicate that stamina is a useful asset at the venue as the average winning DI of 1.11 is lower only at Cheltenham, Hexham and Chepstow. Jumping can be trickier than usual as the clear round rate of 95.20% is in the lower quarter of British and Irish racecourses, and that figure drops to 93.22% for hurdling debutants. Experience is also valuable around Stratford as newcomers have an impact value of 0.61 since 2004/05. The going was last reported to be Good, Good to Firm in places. It has been watered, although there is no rain forecast between now and flagfall.

    DIVISION ONE

    Scrappy Jack bg Bill Turner f1-0-0 (-) 0 j3-2-0 (113) 95 94
    Epaulette (Compton Place){11}(2.00) 2/1 The Final Whistle 7th 2m Handicap Hurdle (100), Ludlow 2018
    Posting an uninspired performance on his flat debut in early June, Scrappy Jack was beaten twenty lengths on his hurdling bow at Newton Abbot later that month. However, that was not a run without promise and he was able to get off the mark over that course and distance at the start of July. That was a race which appeared to fall apart for him, but while he opened at 12/1 in the ring ahead of his return there a fortnight later, he was half that price by flagfall. Though never travelling with great zest, he made steady progress through the field and jumped the last within a length of the leader. Similar to his previous win, he did not hit the front until near the finish, passing the line with a half-length lead over Fred Bear. Scrappy Jack hurdled adequately during his wins, with his rounds blemished only by sporadic skewing and steadying. However, although his latest victory came in a Class 3 contest, it was a weak event for its type and the form was not much stronger than his previous success. While Scrappy Jack can still hold his own at this level, and trainer Bill Turner has been in fair form as of late, the penalties should have a telling effect sooner rather than later.

    Colden's Passion chg Colin Tizzard f7-0-0 (60) 68
    Twilight Son (Shamardal){1-h}(1.32) 0.5 Gerry's Way 4th 2m 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Cork 2020
    Compared to his usual strings, Colin Tizzard is seldom found in juvenile hurdles, although he fares well whenever he does partake. His runner to winner rate in the sphere is a healthy 35.71% with Third Intention and Padleyourowncanoe among his stronger representatives. Nevertheless, Colden's Passion will be a new venture in two regards as he will be the yard's first juvenile to appear during the summer, and the first to have been campaigned on the flat while residing at Venn Farm. Costing £47,000 at the Goffs Breeze Up last year, Colden's Passion has finished closer to last than first on all but the first of his seven outings. Though not disgraced in handicaps at Salisbury and Lingfield this year, his latest two outings have seen him beaten a total of sixty-three lengths while failing to beat a single rival home. He is set to be Twilight Son's first runner over hurdles and apart from being a respectable 16.1 hands tall, he does not have a promising profile for the discipline. Raced exclusively over six furlongs, the Haydock Sprint and Diamond Jubilee winner is a son of Kyllachy whose own record in the sphere is among the worst. The damline is quite tepid as half-brother Gerry's Way has shown only fair form, and the closest jumps winners are Fearless Falcon and Watchalike at 3/1. Most of the interest in Colden's Passion would derive from the novelty value as there is not enough substance to entertain real intrigue in this company, particularly as his most recent form has been poor.

    Devious Dreamer chg Denis Quinn f13-1-2 (72) 77
    Buratino (Refuse To Bend){19}(0.78) 3/2 High Kicker 4th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2018
    One of two newcomers in the field with winning flat form, Devious Dreamer found the winners enclosure after winning a seven furlong handicap at Gowran in mid June off a mark of 65. Sent off the 7/4 favourite, he was able to dictate a steady pace and after kicking for home at the distance, was able to hold on by half-a-length. That form has not been matched in two subsequent outings and he has shown himself difficult to settle. Devious Dreamer has since left James Barrett to join Newmarket trainer Denis Quinn who has had one juvenile hurdle win from twenty-one attempts. Sire Buratino does not have the obvious qualities to succeed in the sphere, although his sole representative to date has been a winner. There is little encouragement on the distaff side however as the close relatives are best up to a mile, and the jumpers in close proximity were modest. The quality of Devious Dreamer's flat form reads well in the context of this race, but his profile is wanting in the context of this discipline.

    Fred Bear bg Sheena West f4-0-0 (53) 52 j3-0-2 (105) 95 96
    Kodi Bear (Barathea){16-c}(0.68) 2/1 Silk Affair 1st Fred Winter Juv HcH (G3,125), Cheltenham 2009
    While no better than modest on the flat, there was enough in Fred Bear's profile to suggest he could do better over hurdles. Out of a full-sister to Fred Winter winner Silk Affair, trainer Sheena West boasts an outstanding improvement rate of 72.97%. During his first two two outings at Newton Abbot, he went some way to fulfilling this assertion as he followed a promising hurdling debut at the start of July with a second on his return to the venue a fortnight later. Last seen over today's course and distance twenty-five days ago, he began the race as 9/4 favourite from a morning show of 7/2. Sent straight into the lead from flagfall, Fred Bear raced freely for much of the contest, and while his hurdling improved between his first two outings, he was not quite so clean here. Along with steadying at a few hurdles, he also got in close to the first, fourth and sixth as well as having a slight tendency to wander on the approach. These flaws were not massively detrimental to his performance and though he conceded the lead shortly after the turn for home, proving no match for the winner, he still had upwards of nineteen lengths in hand over the remainder. This marked a new career best and although his official mark of 105 is harsh based on his actual accomplishments, he sets the standard over Scrappy Jack at the weights as well as having proven course form. Furthermore, while Sheena West has not been busy as of late, her record with juveniles at Stratford is a respectable with her seven runners collecting a win and four places at the venue.

    Nayon bg Robert Eddery f5-0-0 (44) 38
    Nayef (Singspiel){14-c}(1.00) 0.5 Virnon 1st 2m1f Handicap Chase (113), Market Rasen 2017
    Beating just five of his forty-seven rivals during four outings for David Evans, Nayon's first run for Robert Eddery saw him beaten 120 lengths at Windsor seven weeks ago. There is a glimmer of hope in the pedigree as Nayef's winner/runner rate of 16.98% is solid, if just below average, and half-brother Virnon was a fairly useful chaser. Robert Eddery's sole win from eighteen in the divsion came when Isabella Liberty landed a plunge at Fakenham in October 2014. Similar shenanigans will be required here if Nayon is to make a winning hurdles bow.

    Rhythmic Blues chg Michael Easterby f3-0-0 (63) 60
    Bobby's Kitten (Exchange Rate){1-w}(3.00) 5/3 Papus 1st 4600m Grand Prix de Pau (80.0) Pau 1992
    Set to be his trainer's first representative this term is Rhythmic Blues who has finished in the rear during three starts over a mile this year. Though his latest outing can be excused as the rider lost an iron, his alloted BHA mark of 63 was not enough to tempt a switch into handicap company. Bobby's Kitten has yet to be tested as a sire in the division, but his credentials are not the worst for an American bred. The damline offers no clues other than the appearance to top class French chaser Papus at 5/3. Michael Easterby does get winners in the sphere, although his winner/runner rate of 11.27 and improvement rate of 23.33% are modest, and just one from seventy scored first time.

    Scots Gold grg Dan Skelton f6-0-0 (66) 70
    Dark Angel (Duke Of Marmalade){8-f}(1.40) 3/2 Major Drive 1st 2m5f Handicap Hurdle (106), Sedgefield 2004
    For four out of the past six seasons, Dan Skelton has had a strike rate in the division exceeding 20% and is already off the mark this term with Knotty Ash scoring at Market Rasen. His first time rate with flat recruits rated 62 and above is 29.63% and from seven runners in Stratford juveniles, he has two wins and four places. However, he has gone without a winner for five weeks and Knotty Ash disappointed second time out. Having his first outing here for Dan Skelton is Scots Gold, who despite failing to place in six starts for Tom Dascombe (whose former inmates have a solid record), was not entirely disgraced on the flat. His penultimate outing, which came in a ten furlong Nottingham handicap back in April, was probably his strongest to date as while he was outpaced at the distance in a slowly run affair, he did his best work late on and only narrowly failed to reach third at the post. The form of that race has also worked out well with those surrounding him finished first or second in subsequent outings. He was unable to match that form next time at Goodwood on the first of May and has not been seen since. Similar to Nayef, Dark Angel gets winners in the division, albeit taking less than his fair share. The damline is less encouraging as those that appear prior to the fairly useful Major Drive back at 3/2 were poor over jumps. Scots Gold has enough quality about him to be a threat in this company, and his trainer always warrants respect with this type. However, his unproven stamina for Stratford, near four month absence and the yard's recent form do temper enthusiasm.

    Sir Taweel bg Neil King f8-1-0 (60) 64
    Sir Prancealot (Duke Of Marmalade){8-f}(0.85) 3/1 Big Occasion 2nd Scottish Grand National (132), Ayr 2013
    Neil King's most notable juvenile hurdlers would be Nordano and Lil Rockerfeller, but his overall winner/runner rate of 32.61% and improvement rate of 57.14% are also worthy of respect. His first runner in the division this term is set to be the other winning newcomer in the line-up, Sir Taweel. Showing little for Marco Botti as a two year old, Sir Taweel joined Mohamed Moubarak after fetching 8,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Following a winter break and a gelding operation, he was able to get off the mark in a mile handicap at Windsor off 56 towards the end of April. Sent off at 28/1, he travelled strongly in the rear and after making good headway, took up the running at the furlong marker. He did not go on as he might have been expected and carried his head awkwardly under pressure, but did not look in danger of throwing the race away. Returning to Windsor at the end of May, he ran a very similar race off six pounds higher. However, after taking the lead inside the final furlong, he did not follow through with his effort dropped back into fourth in the dying strides. Sir Taweel was then beaten out of sight in a pair of handicaps in June and hung left last time out. He runs in the same colours for his hurdles debut, but while Mohamed Moubarak was able to get a tune out of Kentucky Hardboot last term, the owners have opted to send him to Neil King. Sir Prancealot has a record of just one winner from nine in the division, although they have tended to maintain their flat form and the granddam is a full-sister to the staying chaser Big Occasion, and half-sister to Dovecote winner Forgotten Voice. Overall, there are worse profiles than that of Sir Taweel, but his temperament can not go without question and for all his new trainer has a good record in the sphere, his juveniles do tend to improve with experience.

    Aliomaana chf Milton Harris f5-0-2 (74) 75
    Raven's Pass (Sea The Stars){8-f}(1.29) 2/1 Celestial Force 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (120), Newton Abbot 2021
    The highest rated flat horse in the contest, boosted by a favourable sex allowance, Aliomaana twice managed to grab second in a pair of all-weather maidens over ten furlongs at Wolverhampton and Chelmsford. At the former, she was no match for subsequent Oaks fourth Save A Forest, but did grab her second from a subsequent winner and was behind another subsequent winner in Percy's Pride at Chelmsford. That would be her last start for John Gosden before getting knocked down for 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. Thirteen former residents of Clarehaven Stables have gone on to win juvenile hurdles, although this comes at a rate of 14.44% and, illustrating how difficult it can be to squeeze out further improvement from such types, only 21.67% would better their flat form over hurdles. Nevertheless, Milton Harris was able to do just that last season when Pyramid Place won three times for the master of The Beeches. Milton Harris's overall record in the sphere is fair without being strong, but while his first time strike rate is just 4.65%, he does hold the distinction among British trainers of having the highest number of juvenile debutants without any falls or unseats at forty-three. Although she is a great-granddaughter of Arc runner-up Aquarelliste, Aliomaana is not unfeasibly bred for her new career as Raven's Pass gets his fair share of winning juveniles as well as having a good improvement rate of 61.11%. Her dam is also a full-sister to this summer's useful hurdler Celestial Force. Aliomaana's overall profile makes her an interesting recruit to the sphere, although given that her new trainer could be in better form, she may be one to come on for this outing.

    Fiamette chf Jo Davis f3-0-0 (56) 48
    Free Eagle (Dr Fong){13-e}(0.57) 2/1 High Stratos 3rd 2m4f Conditions Hurdle, Punchestown 2015
    Finishing eighth on all three starts on the all weather this winter, Fiamette's mark of 56 exceeds her accomplishments. Leaving Anthony Carson for Jo Davis, she joins a trainer who has had a couple of winning juveniles, although none of her twelve with official marks improved on their flat form. Free Eagle is a positive as he enjoyed three winners from his first crop, and the damline has several winning jumpers nearby in High Stratos (2/1), Poet (2/1), Vanishing Point (2/2) and Alum Bay (3/1). However, while Fiamette would have the potential to better her flat showings, there is still a large gap between herself and several of these.

    Lanika chf Gary Brown f17-0-3 (45) 57
    Outstrip (Dansili){22-a}(3.00) 3/1 Danking 6th 2m2½f Novices' Hurdle, Stratford 2021
    The most experienced runner in this line-up, seventeen race maiden Lanika appears to be exposed as plating class. While she has placed at twelve furlongs, those were in slowly run affairs. Former inmates of Sylvester Kirk's have a good 25.81% winner runner rate and Gary Brown won this contest in 2012 with Hilali, although the aforementioned was some twenty pounds superior on the flat. Sire Outstrip is currently without a winner from two and the damline offers nothing for this sphere.

    Strong prospects
    1. Fred Bear
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Scrappy Jack
    3. Scots Gold
    4. Aliomaana
    Feasible prospects
    5. Sir Taweel
    6. Colden's Passion
    Moderate prospects
    7. Devious Dreamer
    8. Rhythmic Blues
    Negligible prospects
    9. Fiamette
    10. Nayon
    11. Lanika

    DIVISION TWO

    Caramelised bc Alan King f4-0-0 (73) 75 j1-1-0 (-) 106 105
    Dansili (Cozzene){9-e}(1.67) 2/2 Lord Condi 1st 2m1½f Novices' Hurdle, Plumpton 2018
    On top of being the winningmost trainer of juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, Alan King has a winner to runner rate of 48.61% and an overall strike rate of 23.29%. His first time out rate was bolstered when Caramalised made a winning hurdles debut over this course and distance twenty-five days ago. A four race maiden for Richard Hannon, he had finished nearer last than first on all four outings and had shown himself a free running sort. Nevertheless, his rating of 73 was the highest BHA mark seen in the division to that point and he was sent off a steady 4/1 third favourite of eight. The concern over an inability to settle manifested in the contest itself as he pulled hard up to the point he was sent for home. Held up in touch from the outset, he moved to track the leaders going out onto the second circuit and travelled nicely to challenge for the lead entering the straight. Shaken up to take a length advantage on the approach to the last, it took no more than a hands and heels drive to quickly extend his lead and cross the line seven lengths to the good. Caramelised posted a safe round of jumping without being consistently fluent as he was slightly skewed at the first, big over the second, steep at the third, reached at the sixth and, while it did not cost him momentum, rather hopped over the final flight. Caramelised will need to settle better if he is to go up in grade, and as Alan King will almost certainly have stronger types for the coming season, the 40/1 currently offered for the Triumph Hurdle would make little appeal at this stage. Nevertheless, it was a pleasing debut performance overall and while his quirks might leave him vulnerable to a newcomer, he sets the clear standard of those with hurdles experience.

    Aggagio bg Sophie Leech f7-2-2 (76) 79
    Born To Sea (Verglas){16-a}(3.00) 3/1 Latest Dream 7th 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Taunton 2009
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/aggagio
    Starting his career in France, Aggagio finished his career there with a valeur of 36.5, and an emphatic success in a Morlaix claimer. He was under the care of Jean-Claude Rouget whose exports have a winner runner rate of 37.84% in the division, although the improvement rate from their flat ratings stands at just 15.15%. After being claimed for €15,007, he joined Sophie Leech under whom he has since ran with credit in handicaps at Haydock and Chepstow. Despite only beating one rival home during those two outings, he was beaten by less than four lengths each time while looking relatively straight forward in the process. His new trainer has enjoyed some success in the division as four of her sixteen juveniles have been winners, and she has no falls or unseats from fifty-seven starts. However, she is another with a modest improvement rate, is yet to have a winning newcomer from fifteen attempts and is currently on the cold list. Born To Sea has a solid record in the sphere, but there are no decent jumpers to be found on the damline until Kazlian at 5/3. Aggagio has some class about him and his profile is not without merit. However the trainer's profile and the sparse damline are enough to temper enthusiasm at this juncture.

    Crane bg Nicky Henderson f6-1-1 (72) 77 j1-0-0 (-) 68 66
    Oasis Dream (Pivotal){6-e}(1.82) 3/2 Little Green 1st Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Fairyhouse 2011
    Winning on the flat as a two-year-old for Michael Bell, Crane joined a leading trainer in Nicky Henderson for a new hurdling career which began over this course and distance late last month. After drifting from 9/4 to 3/1 in the morning, Crane was trimmed back into 11/4 to start the race as second favourite. However, while he was settled reasonably well and was in a good position behind the leaders, he was let down quite considerably by his jumping. Big and slow to get away from the first, he was slightly close to the second, steady and close at the third, and tight over the next three - the sixth he rather hopped over. Under pressure and losing ground from thereon, he was slow over the last and finished the race nearly forty lengths behind the winner. Poor jumping contributed to his undoing, although his stamina is also up for question and his being by Oasis Dream did not give great cause for optimism beforehand in any case. His representing Nicky Henderson will likely keep him of interest by default. However, it can be noted that none of the trainer's eight juveniles who finished outside of the front five first time out was able to score at the second time of asking, and there is no reason why he should bridge the gap with Caramelised on their previous meeting.

    Gavin bg Joe Ponting f6-0-1 (50) 56
    Bated Breath (Montjeu){16-c}(0.71) 2/1 Keys 2nd 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Aintree 2011
    Joe Ponting, who trained Dollydo to win a point-to-point at Tiverton when he was still at school, is set to have his first jumps runner under rules in Gavin. Formerly with Rod Millman, whose former charges have a respectable record in the sphere, Gavin showed nothing in his first three outings but was subject to a plunge on his handicap debut at Salisbury in late April. While the gamble went astray, he still posted a career best when third off 55. However, despite the gamble being repeated for his next outing, he ran disappointingly and his recent efforts have also seen the emergence of temperament issues. Sold for just 3,500 guineas at Tattersalls in July, there is a modicum of hope in the pedigree. Though Bated Breath's three juveniles have achieved little to date, winning jumpers Keys (2/1), Stanley Stanley (2/2) and Forto (3/1) appear on the damline and damsire Montjeu is a solid influence in the sphere. Nevertheless, while better might be expected during this new vocation, this would not be enough to create too much excitement in this company.

    Gonna Go Viral brg Johnny Farrelly f4-0-0 (60) 58
    Alhebayeb (Singspiel){16-a}(1.55) 2/2 Nina Candela 1st 3500m Handicap Hurdle (63,0), Enghien 2013
    Since making his debut at Leopardstown in April, Gonna Go Viral has finished no closer than twenty-one lengths to the winner on four outings. His best effort came on his penultimate outing in a twelve furlong maiden at the same venue, but he was still fourteenth of eighteen having started at 400/1. New trainer Johnny Farrelly is still awaiting his first winner in the division after thirteen attempts, but the breeding offers some encouragement. Alhebayeb had two winners in his first crop last term, including the tough and promising Duffle Coat. Singspiel is a solid enough damsire in the sphere and cousin Nina Candela was a fairly useful hurdler in France. Gonna Go Viral may eventually find his level over hurdles, although this contest looks rather deep for him at this stage.

    Prey For Glory bg Denis Quinn f9-0-5 (63) 70
    Free Eagle (Shirocco){14-c}(0.64) 2/2 Mourad 2nd Champion 4YO Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2009
    The best bred runner across both divisions, Prey For Glory's pedigree would befit any serious juvenile hurdler. Sire Free Eagle, had his first crop last season which boasted three winners including the useful Coltor. Prey For Glory's cousin was the highly talented Mourad who along with landing four graded contests, also did well as a juvenile finishing third in the Triumph, second at the Punchestown Festival, and fourth in the Prix Alain du Breil. Other useful juveniles on the damline include Darter (3/1) and Maybewave (2/3). Prey For Glory's flat form is also respectable in this company as while he failed to win in nine starts for James Ferguson, he did finish third on five occasions including successive handicaps at Wolverhampton, Yarmouth and Windsor during the spring. Disappointing at Linfield in early June, he hinted at a return to form back at Yarmouth when last seen two months ago, although he did hang quite badly under pressure. Withdrawn from the Tattersalls July Sale, he has since joined Denis Quinn who has one win from twenty-one in the division. Prey For Glory is entitled to respect on his breeding, but the yard is without a jumps winner for over a year and while the flat form is acceptable, the absence and questionable attitude rather offset the positives.

    Sabre Jet bg Amy Murphy f5-0-2 (62) 65
    Zoffany (Teofilo){19-c}(1.46) 3/1 Corton 4th 2m4f Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2005
    Amy Murphy went without a winner in her first three seasons in the sphere, but she made a discernible impact last term with three individual winners giving her a 20.83% strike rate. Furthermore, she has sent out juvenile hurdlers on forty-one occasions and counting without a single fall or unseat to date. Her first runner in the sphere this season is set to be Sabre Jet, who posted his best effort to date last time out. His first two starts on turf did not match his all-weather outings over the winter. However, the application of tongue tie and cheekpieces, and a return to ten furlongs, saw him keep on well to finish second off 62 at Yarmouth nineteen days ago. Zoffany would not be an obvious jumping sire, but his winners to runners rate of 26.19% is a healthy one and he is also capable of getting decent types such as Sir Psycho and Zoffanien. Teofilo is almost as strong a damsire as he is a sire in the division with his broodmares boasting a winner/runner rate of 28.57%. The damline would be less encouraging, and the standard of flat form is a little behind a few of these. Nevertheless, Sabre Jet's attitude as well as his sirelines and trainer profile would not have a decent showing readily ruled out.

    Von Melas bg Michael Easterby f3-0-1 (64) 53
    Battle Of Marengo (Rock Of Gibraltar){16-c}(0.82) 2/1 Karawaan 2nd 2m Handicap Hurdle (106), Tipperary 2021
    Though officially rated 64 after three spins on the flat, Von Melas only hinted at that type of mark last time out when plugging on to finish a fourteen length third at in a ten furlong novice stakes at Nottingham early this month. He still looked green on that occasion and similar to his stablemate in the first division, the mark has not enticed connections to try handicapping. Von Melas is feasibly bred to do better over hurdles as Battle Of Marengo has had three winning juveniles from nine, and while Rock Of Gibraltar is not as strong a damsire as sire, uncle Karawaan has managed to place over hurdles. The yard's over record in the sphere could be worse, but its first time out rate is a poor one.

    Addosh bf Stuart Edmunds f11-1-4 (71) 78
    The Gurkha (Dubawi){10-a}(0.63) 3/2 State Crown 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (110), Newton Abbot 2021
    Of all the trainers in Britain and Ireland who have had fifteen of more juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, only Henderson and Nicholls have a strike rate higher than Stuart Edmunds' 27.03%. Furthermore, when it comes to first time out winners, his strike rate of 42.86% is bettered only by Nicky Henderson and Desmond McDonogh. Hoping to maintain that record will be the 71 rated filly Addosh. Winless as a two-year-old, the application of the hood on her second start of 2021 saw her win a mile handicap at Thirsk by just under two lengths in ready fashion off a mark of 67. Though she failed to add to her tally, she continued in good form over her next three outings, putting up her best performance on her penultimate start when a staying on second over ten furlongs at Haydock at the start of July. The contest had an honest pace, the finish was contested by in form sorts and the winner and third have each won since. That would be her last start for Hugo Palmer and she sold for 15,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. Palmer's former inmates have a weak record in juvenile hurdles of one winner from sixteen, although Stuart Edmunds' other purchase at the same sale was another 15,000 guineas purchase, Wolf Of Windlesham, who would win three for the yard in 2015/16 including the Prestbury Hurdle. Addosh was slightly below form at Newmarket on her stable debut where her chances were compromised by her pulling hard, although she was not helped by the lack of early pace. The Gurkha is having his first crop of juvenile hurdlers and though one of Galileo's speedier sons, the sireline has a good record in the division and hurdlers Prospect Wells and Brooklyn's Gold do appear on his damline at 3/1. Damsire Dubawi has a 28.57% winner to runner rate in that role which includes Leoncavallo and State Crown - the latter being a 3/2 relative of Addosh who won a handicap hurdle as a juvenile last season. For all that Stuart Edmunds is quite seriously underestimated in this sphere, his clear round rate of 91.89% is not the highest, and it remains to be seen if Addosh's keenness last time was due to the pace or a more embedded issue. Nevertheless, there are still enough positives in her profile to make her worthy of serious attention in this contest.

    Baby Sham bf Seamus Mullins f11-1-5 (62) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 70 66
    Sir Percy (Shamardal){4-o}(1.00) 3/2 Shubaat 1st 3m Handicap Hurdle (130), Southwell 2014
    A winner on her penultimate flat outing for Stuart Williams, Baby Sham received some support at longer odds before her jumps bow at Newton Abbot five weeks ago. Being a daughter of Sir Percy and distant relative of winners Shubaat (3/1), Jefferson Davis (3/1) and Well Chief (5/4) her prospects were not unfeasible. She skewed over the first and went through the top of the second, but jumped better in midfield prior to blundering at three out. Still in third place rounding the home turn, she had little else to give from thereon and was beaten fifteen lengths in the end. The trip ought not to have been an issue and a more reasonable explanation for her poor finishing would likely be her five month absence. Baby Sham would not have any grand aspirations in the game and has a bit to find with a few of these. Nevertheless, she should be able to leave that form behind eventually and the yard has had a winner at this venue in the past, even if their charges typically need a few races before finding their better form.

    Free Degrees rof Sarah-Jayne Davies f3-0-0 (37) 39 j1-0-0 (-) 61 67
    Free Eagle (Verglas){5-g}(0.65) 4/1 Englishtown 1st 2m5½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Southwell 2009
    Apart from being a daughter of Free Eagle, Free Degrees had little going for her ahead of her jumps introduction at Uttoxeter a month ago. This was reflected in her starting price of 200/1. Though late and big at the first, she jumped reasonably while tracking the leaders from the outset. She was slightly baulked on landing at the sixth but was still within a couple of lengths of the lead turning from home. However, she had been relegated to fifth place at three out and had nothing else to give from thereon. Free Degrees travelled and jumped nicely enough, but would probably need to get in off a very low mark in order to eventually be competitive in this sphere.

    Strong prospects
    1. Addosh
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Caramelised
    3. Sabre Jet
    Feasible prospects
    4. Aggagio
    5. Prey For Glory
    6. Baby Sham
    Moderate prospects
    7. Crane
    8. Von Melas
    9. Gonna Go Viral
    Negligible prospects
    10. Free Degrees
    11. Gavin

  11. #29
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    Here is the review for division one of today's juvenile hurdle at Stratford. The one for division two should hopefully be up for tomorrow morning.

    Preview review
    Very difficult to be disappointed with that one. Move Scrappy Jack two places down and the first five are in the correct order. The well backed Fred Bear, who was 5/2 in the morning, was given strong prospects as he set the standard and had the course experience that Scrappy Jack did not. Aliomaana started the day at 33/1 in places but went well for a long way, trading as low as 3.9 in-running before running out of steam. Scrappy Jack was slightly disappointing, but he merely demonstrated that Newton Abbot suited better. 200/1 shot Fiamette, who was still beaten 57 lengths, rather disrupted the streak yet even her potential improvement was mentioned on account of her pedigree. To look for any discernible flaws would be to tilt at windmills. If only all the other previews worked out like this one.

    Race review
    The second division patently had the better winner, but while it also appeared to have more depth beforehand, it was the first division that saw more participants run to a reasonable level of form.
    The pace set was strong but measured, and the field was strung out for a long way. The protagonists travelled well enough and jumped respectably for the most part. They each had every right to finish as they did and while the fourth did not run to his previous winning form, he may be something of a course specialist. The second and third could possibly improve past the winner with experience, but as it stands, the form looks solid.

    Fred Bear was modest on the flat, but his trainer and pedigree suggested better could come over hurdles. Following a promising debut at Newton Abbot, he has improved with each outing and finally earned his deserved success at the fourth time of asking. Assuming his customary front running role, he went straight into a clear lead with only a couple of rivals attempting to pursue. Going out onto the second circuit, he increased his lead to the best part of a dozen lengths and while his rivals closed when he took a breather over the hill, he still had a three length cushion turning for home which he would maintain to the line. Without ever being bad, the consistency of his hurdling had fluctuated between runs going into this race. However, he jumped with neatness and aplomb this time around and he was still able to tidily find his feet when a little late at the sixth. Either feeling the effects of his exertions, or losing a bit of concentration, he was low and untidy at the penultimate flight, and rather missed the last where he stumbled on landing. Nevertheless, he recovered quickly on each occasion and never looked in danger of getting caught before the line. This performance marks a new career best for Fred Bear and is one which justifies his previously stiff looking handicap mark. In essence, he ran the perfect race for a horse of his ability and it can not be said with confidence that there is much more scope remaining for further improvement. In the right contest, he can defy a penalty and can also be competitive in handicaps off this kind of mark. Fred Bear may also find a few pounds through his willing attitude, although it will do for now to appreciate this performance for what it was. 106

    Scots Gold did not reach the frame on the flat for Tom Dascombe, but he ran to a fair standard and his pedigree is reasonable for this discipline. New trainer Dan Skelton has a fine record in the sphere, although he has not been at his usual standard as of late and while Scots Gold started the day as favourite, he would drift from a morning 7/4 to 3/1 at the off. Settled in mid-division some way off the pace, he made steady headway along the back before coming under a drive going over the hill. While he managed to get to within a few lengths of the winner approaching the home turn, and was able to outlast the long time pursuer, he was unable to make further inroads along the straight. He still had upwards of ten lengths over his remaining rivals and his jumping was good for a debutant; his only errors being a bit late at the fourth, which he still negotiated well, and getting slightly slightly close at three out. A likeable debut with a performance close to his flat best, Scots Gold can improve for this experience and will be of further interest when his yard goes through the gears. 103

    Aliomaana placed twice on the flat for John Gosden prior to joining Milton Harris, and brought the highest flat rating into this contest. Pyramid Place made the same journey last season prior to winning three in the division, yet Aliomaana was still available at 33/1 in the morning. She was eventually backed down to 12/1 by the off and she was the only horse to seriously pursue the winner from the outset. She was fairly keen in the early stages, but settled better going on the second circuit. The gap between herself and the leader fluctuated and while she still held second turning into the straight, she had little left and ultimately had to settle for a thirteen length third. Milton Harris has yet to have a juvenile debutant fall or unseat, but Aliomaana did make a few minor errors - namely hopping through some of the earlier jumps, slightly skewing over the fifth and, when probably tired, steadying at the last where she went to her left. Notwithstanding, this was a pleasing debut for the most part and while her tiring late on meant she ran below her flat form, there was enough to build on to suggest she should be more competitive in this discipline before long. 86

    Scrappy Jack ran no race on his debut on the flat in early June, but his hurdles debut at Newton Abbot was not without promise and he subsequently improved to land a double at that venue the following month. Shouldering a double penalty, Scrappy Jack was steady in the ring and was sent off the 4/1 third favourite. Initially leading the peloton while settled off the pace, he lost his position passing the stands and was off the bridle going onto the second lap. Though he plugged on to go into fourth turning for home, the race had left him well behind at that point and was beaten thirty-three lengths in the end. Despite being untidy after wandering into the first, and steadying going into the third, Scrappy Jack probably posted his cleanest round to date. His coming off the bridle so soon may have suggested something was amiss, but he has raced lazily in the past and it is more likely that he is better suited to Newton Abbot than Stratford. This was still some way below his best and unless he finds a weak contest around a favourable circuit, Scrappy Jack is likely to struggle under his penalty and his inflated BHA rating. 83

    Sir Taweel won a mile handicap on the flat off 56 for Mohamed Moubarak in April and while he failed to progress from there, his trainer and pedigree suggest he can find his level in this sphere. However, he did not make the most compelling of debuts as he did not leave the rear of the field until passing tailed off rivals after the race had finished as a contest. His cause was hindered by the hurdles he encountered early on and while he can not be blamed for getting badly baulked on landing at the first, his being very steady and close at the second, and big and ungainly at the third, were his own doing. The yard's charges typically improve with experience and while Sir Taweel accomplished very little here, he is not a forlorn hope just yet. 53

    Fiamette was poor at best during three outings for Anthony Carson this winter, although her pedigree gave her some hope of doing better over hurdles. Racing in a first time visor, she gave chase to the two leaders and was not beaten off until dropping away towards the end of the back. Her hurdling was slow and steady to begin with, but she jumped better when ridden into her flights. Fiamette is a long way from being competitive in any contest, but it is not unfeasible that she might eventually play a role if she can race off a low enough mark. 42

    Colden's Passion is a rare juvenile hurdler for Colin Tizzard, rarer still in that he raced on the flat for the master of Venn Farm. His best form in that sphere was rather fair, but it had deteriorated in recent outings and his breeding is not an obvious one for his new vocation. Racing off the pace but prominent in the main pack, he briefly went into fourth along the back but was beaten a long way from home. His jumping was not particularly fluent as he skewed at the second, was early and untidy at the third, slow away from the sixth and close at two out. Beaten over seventy lengths in the end, there is little encouragement to be drawn either from his profile or from this performance. 35

    Rhythmic Blues finished towards the rear in three outings over a mile this year, and his allotted mark of 63 did not entice connections to try a handicap. Unfancied in the market, he never left the rear and young Tom Midgley did well to maintain the partnership after his mount skewed badly at the second. Rhythmic Blues' jumping was otherwise big and slow throughout and he finished tailed off. 28

    Lanika was the most experienced runner in the line-up but was also exposed as modest as she held a rating of just 45 after seventeen races. Sent off at 100/1, she was very steady and big at the first, big and slow at the second, and while her jumping improved marginally from there, she lost her place in the pack shortly after passing the stands and finished virtually pulled up. 0

    Nayon was poor on the flat, started this race at 250/1, never left the rear and was pulled up along the back. To his credit, he was quite clever to jump out of the way of a slow jumper at the second, but that is the only positive to be drawn from this performance. 0

    Devious Dreamer had winning form on the flat in Ireland and his mark of 72 was respectable in this company. He opened at 10/1 in the ring but he was more than twice that price at the off. His hurdling was not fluent, but it was not the worst either. However, stamina was a major concern coming into this contest and he was struggling a long way from home before pulling up along the back. 0

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  13. #30
    Senior Member Bachelors Hall's Avatar
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    Preview review
    The first two had the strongest prospects and while they finished in reverse order, the runner-up was a decent price. Nevertheless, there is still an element of lamentation since the winner should have been given the strong prospects. Hurdles experience was mentioned as important at a track like Stratford, the concern about the winner's pulling did not stop him scoring first time, and while the runner-up was clear best of the rest, the concerns about her jumping and tendency to pull should have kept her from top position. Everything else in behind was beaten by at least a distance so estimating which of these were under or overestimated would be a fairly trivial exercise.

    Race review
    With the previous course winner being a bit of a handful, and several of the newcomers having feasible profiles, this contest looked like it might have been more competitive than the betting indicated. However, this turned out to be an utter demolition job from the previous course and distance winner which, unusually for a summer jumper, propelled him to the top of the Triumph Hurdle market. The pace was strong but uneven as the lead changed hands depending on which horse had pulled himself to the front. Along with some buzzy performances, outside of the winner, the quality of jumping was also somewhat below par. The winning time was just over a second slower than in the first division, although the winner did complete the run-in over a second quicker despite being held on the bridle. From a form perspective, it is difficult to view the race as much beyond "Caramelised first, rest nowhere" since the winner was so superior, everything else looked much of a muchness. The runner-up had the most potential of the newcomers and given that she was keen in patches and made errors, should also emerge as second best going forward. The third jumped and travelled better than first time out but was still two-and-a-half stones away from his flat form.

    Caramelised was winless in four outings for Richard Hannon and his mark of 73 did not look especially generous. A switch to hurdles may have been moved forward by said mark, but though he pulled hard on his jumps debut over this course and distance, he was still a most convincing winner and the form has since been boosted by the placed horses each going one better next time. Backed as though defeat was out of the question, he went from 4/7 to 4/9 in the ring, causing all his rivals to be squeezed out by his market share. Initially tucked in just behind the leaders, he settled better than he had first time around and though he was lit up after the third, Tom Cannon regained the bit by the time they reached the hill second time which is also where Caramelised moved stylishly into the lead. Shaken up ever so gently on the turn for home, he entered the straight with an advantage of half-a-dozen lengths and without any impetus from the rider, that gap was extended to thrice that amount at the line. Apart from getting slightly big at the first and maybe brushing the top of two out, Caramelised put in an exhibition round of jumping that would not have looked out of place during a veteran hurdler's schooling session. Furthermore, the fact that he completed the run-in in a faster time than the previous race while on the bridle shows that he has a tremendous amount of speed for the division. His tendency to race freely might become a concern when the stiffer competition emerges, but he was still better than last time which is encouraging given that he is still an entire. Ironically, stablemate Midnights Legacy was another entire tried in the division last term with a view to a stallion career in the longer term. While the aforementioned may do better if returning to the sphere, Caramelised has already proven himself a natural and being a son of Dansili, would not look out of place on a National Hunt stallion roster - particularly as six of his ten sons to have tried have produced winning juveniles and the sadly departed Zoffany had been compiling quite the record. In the nearer, less fanciful future, Market Rasen's September contest was nominated as Caramelised's next target and it is a race that his trainer has used for some good juveniles in the past including City Dreamer, Cracker Factory, Silencio and, more notably, Franchoek and Katchit. A lot can happen in the space of a month, but Caramelised is currently a stone better than anything else seen domestically in the division and unless one of the French recruits is introduced in Lincolnshire's showpiece, it will take the emergence of something very good to challenge him. Caramelised was cut to 25/1 joint favourite for the Triumph after this performance and while that price would make little appeal at this juncture, his opening price of 40/1 now looks quite reasonable. 120

    Addosh amassed a win and three places on the flat for Hugo Palmer and her BHA mark of 71 made her strong at the weights in this contest. Her pedigree is not without its potential, although the greatest strength in her profile lay in her joining a Stuart Edmunds who invariably punches above his weight in this sphere. Steady in the market throughout the day, she did drift out to 15/2 on course, but this was on account of the confidence behind the winner and she still started second favourite. Held up in the early stages, she pulled hard in patches but was able to settle reasonably well before too long. Towards the rear at the fifth, she made robust headway in a short amount of time along the back and was travelling strongly just behind the leaders two flights later. She was the last pursuer still on the bridle approaching the home turn, but had been completely outpaced by the winner who was long gone before they could see the stands. Nevertheless, while no match for the winner, the remainder of the field were left in her wake and there were sixteen and thirteen lengths between herself, the third and the fourth. Addosh jumped some of her hurdles quite well, although she was steep at the first, very untidy at the third and low at the last while also showing a slight tendency to go right. Overall, it was a satisfactory introduction and while she was a class below the winner, there was enough to suggest she has a future in this sphere. Though not a headcase, she could still settle better which might enable her to run a more consistent race insofar as pace is concerned. Better hurdling should come with experience and she may even be served by going right handed. Addosh has built herself a decent foundation and with ample scope for improvement, she should be a nice recruit to the sphere. 79

    Crane won a nursery on the flat for Michael Bell, but his seemingly being handicapped to the hilt saw him move to Seven Barrows for a hurdling campaign. Although his trainer has an outstanding record in the sphere, Crane's pedigree did not give cause for optimism and his jumps bow over this course and distance was lacklustre. Poor jumping contributed to his disappointment first time around but while he was steady, close and untidy at the first here, he hurdled better from thereon, making only minor errors occasionally. Keen in the early stages, he went to the front from flagfall but eventually managed to settle better when an even more headstrong animal gave him a lead. Crane briefly moved back to the front climbing the hill but was easily brushed aside in a matter of strides by the winner. The runner-up also had his measure quite comfortably but Crane was able to win the battle for third from a very tired rival. While losing ground on the winner between their outings, Crane did improve by a few pounds from his hurdling debut. He is still a long way from his two-year-old form and unless he is given a generous handicap mark, would need to keep modest company if he is to be competitive any time soon. 70

    Prey For Glory finished third in half of his flat outings for James Ferguson, and while his BHA rating had dropped half a stone to 63, his form was not disgraceful. There is encouragement in his pedigree for this switch in codes as his being a Free Eagle cousin of Mourad positively screams juvenile hurdler. Held up in the rear and still a long way behind approaching the hill, he made some late headway to plug on for a distant fourth. His jumping lacked fluency as he was slightly skewed at the first, badly skewed at the second and after getting baulked at the fifth, was early and untidy at the next before clipping the last. The bare form is worth little in and of itself, but the performance was not devoid of promise and he may be able to do his pedigree more justice when getting more give in the ground. 57

    Sabre Jet was fairly ordinary on the flat, but he had been improving during the summer and ran a career best last time out in first time tongue-tie and cheekpieces. Representing an Amy Murphy whose latest season in the sphere was a good one, he was clipped a couple of points in the ring to start at 12/1. Held up in touch, he was still just about amongst the leading group crossing the hill, but was soon losing touch and though he entered the straight in third place, he was a spent force and weakened from thereon. His early jumping was not bad, but it rather deteriorated as the race progressed. While Sabre Jet showed glimmers of promise, he found this trip beyond him and may appreciate a sharper test in his quest to match his flat ability. 55

    Von Melas only showed form on his recent return to the course after a winter break, but he was still beaten nearly fifteen lengths in a Nottingham novice stakes and his mark of 64 looked stiff. Racing keenly in the rear, his hurdling lacked fluency and he merely passed beaten horses towards the end. Though Von Melas is still unexposed, he has yet to show he can be competitive in open company. 49

    Aggagio's flat form was the strongest from that sphere in this line-up, and sire Born To Sea has a solid record with juvenile hurdlers. Drifting from 6/1 to 9/1 during the day, he was clipped in half a point prior to the off. He raced in touch for much of the contest, but lacked confidence at most jumps and lost his position along the back before eventually finishing tailed off. He is probably capable of better but there was not much encouragement to be drawn from this outing. 47

    Gavin had shown only moderate form on the flat for Rod Millman, but the damline does feature numerous winning jumpers. Completely unfancied in the market, starting at 125/1, he was initially held up in the rear. However, after getting baulked on landing at the second, he became lit up and pulled himself into a clear lead. He stumbled on the path approaching the third, but was able to recover in time to get over the flight safely enough and his jumping was reasonable from there. However, his exertions had taken their toll by the penultimate flight and he weakened rapidly before being the last to finish. There were some positives to be drawn from his speed and generally safe and sage jumping, although he would not be approached with optimism going forward on the basis of this performance or his overall profile. 33

    Baby Sham won on her penultimate flat start for Stuart Williams and though fading late on, was not disgraced on her hurdling debut at Newton Abbot five weeks earlier. Apart from a few novicey jumps at the second, third and two out, her hurdling was not too bad. However, she never reached midfield and was struggling along the back prior to pulling up before the last. A low handicap mark could be a saving grace, but her bare form and the way she has been finishing her races are a concern as stamina ought not to be an issue. 0

    Gonna Go Viral collected nothing but fat duck eggs for Matthew Smith in Ireland, but his pedigree is not the worst for the game. Sent off at 66/1, he raced amongst the main body and jumped reasonably for the most part before struggling at the hill and eventually pulling up. 0

    Free Degrees raced keenly and prominently on her hurdles debut at Uttoxeter prior to fading. She did the same here except she faded even earlier and was detached when pulling up before two out after a very tired jump at the previous flight. 0

    Still homeless and unemployed so will begrudgingly ask people to like and share on twitter (provided you think the review is alright of course!)

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  15. #31
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    Apologies for missing the Down Royal contest. While living in temporary accommodation is a situation gratefully preferred to the alternative, it is still a building which houses a lot of trauma that often manifests very audibly at very inconvenient hours. This on top of the early starts necessitated by my volunteering role means that I have spent the past week as a grouchy and inattentive zombie. Accordingly, while I will attempt to stay on top of this project to the best of my abilities, the best of my abilities will be curtailed for the foreseeable future. That said, this can be mitigated if any betting shop managers in the Stockport/South Manchester area fancy hiring a cashier who has absolutely zero interest in being a betting shop manager... Sleep willing, the Down Royal review should not be too long in the offing. In the meantime, the absolute joy which is Cartmel.

    If one were to look up the word "idiosyncratic" in the dictionary, you will find a dry description of the word "idiosyncratic". Nevertheless, if horse racing were to ever release an illustrated dictionary of the turf, a picture of Cartmel racecourse will likely accompany the definition. Set in the glorious South Lakes and nestled between the woods and the priory, it is essentially a funfair surrounded by a racecourse. While even the child version of this author would lament that those raucous children seemed more interested in the irrelevant festivities than the racing itself - a sentiment which has gotten worse with age and has expanded to encompass a large section of the racegoing public - it is not for nothing that this charming venue is a favourite of all who have made a visit. Good horses have graced the Cumbrian carnival with 2011 winner Countrywide Flame being the most notable, 2014 winner Vosne Romanee becoming a useful sort, while Silver Streak rather surprisingly finished fourth here in 2016 on his hurdling debut. However, given its rather novel nature, participants in Cartmel's juvenile hurdles are typically a modest breed with only Fakenham having an inferior winner's seasonal RPR. Apart from the home stretch being located on the track's inner, there is not a great deal idiosyncratic about the hurdles course itself. A tight, flat, left handed circuit, the winning juvenile DIs of 1.33 median, 1.88 mean are predictably higher than average - although against those of the average runner, they are still quite low comparatively which ties into the notion that speedy flat breds will not get an easy ride. A point further illustrated by the fact that while the clear round rate of 96.23% is close to bang average, the completion rate of 81.13% is the ninth lowest in the division. All five odds-on favourites in Cartmel's juveniles since 2004/05 have justified their favouritism and with the median winner's SP being the third lowest in the country at 2.81, it is not a course prone to surprise results. Those with racecourse experience have a much stronger strike rate than newcomers (17.57% to 5.88%) and the strike rate for horses bringing winning hurdles form jumps up to 38.46%. The field here is headed by one such horse in Donald McCain's Sacre Pierre, while the Britain's first Munir/Souede juvenile of the season heads the three strong opposition. The going is currently described as good with warm and cloudy weather forecast between now and post time.

    Sacre Pierre bg Donald McCain j1-1-0 (-) 94 104
    On Est Bien (Goldneyev){8-a}(1.22) 1/1 Gold Tweet 1st Prix Hopper (G3 4yo Chase), Compiegne 2021
    An unraced horse with a good French pedigree prior to making a winning debut at Uttoxeter, Sacre Pierre is a full-brother to the good young jumper Gold Tweet along with two others who have shown respectable form in Apollo Creed and Chuck Bass. Granddam Jance was a good three-year-old hurdler in 1996 while the 1999 Prix Alain du Breil third Kidder appears at 3/1 on the damline. Fetching €8,000 at the Osarus two-year-old breeze up, his trainer Donald McCain has a strong record in the sphere with a 29.09% winners to runners rate, and a record in this contest of two wins and a place from seven runners. There was not a great deal of confidence in the market ahead of his Uttoxeter bow seven weeks ago as he drifted from a morning show of 11/2 before starting the race at twice that price. Nevertheless, he settled nicely in the rear and was not asked to make his move until three furlongs from home. Though his response to being shaken up was not immediate, he got to within a length of the leaders at the last and showed very good acceleration once given the office by Brian Hughes to win by six lengths. Irishracing reported that Sacre Pierre was "not that fluent", but this does him a disservice. While he was sticky at the second, a bit late at the fifth and got close to the last, his better jumps outweighed his flawed ones and he was actually quite neat by and large. It would be premature to speculate on Sacre Pierre's ceiling and this performance alone offers no promise of greatness. Nevertheless, it is still one of the better efforts seen to date and with a solid foundation and scope for further improvement, he will be a tough nut to crack in this field.

    Forever Forward bc Peter Bowen f8-0-4 (78) 84
    Exceed And Excel (Teofilo){16-h}(1.13) 3/1 High Day 4th Scottish County Hurdle (123), Musselburgh 2006
    Soldatino, Peace And Co, Top Notch, Bristol de Mai and Grandouet are but a small sample of the talented juvenile hurdlers owned over the years by Munir & Souede, and Forever Forward is set to be the first to carry the green and green in the sphere this term. Costing 105,000 guineas as a yearling, Forever Forward ran eight times on the flat for Clive Cox and comes here with an official mark of 78 which puts him in the 87th percentile of rated newcomers. Though he failed to find the winners' enclosure, he came close on a couple of occasions and would likely have landed a four runner handicap at Nottingham in May but for hanging under pressure. He maintained his form next time at Sandown when headed inside the final furlong, but would beat only one home on his return to that venue when last seen nearly two months ago. Former inmates of Clive Cox have a fair winner to runner rate of 15.15% in the division, and Forever Forward is set to be the first of his owners' horses to run for Peter Bowen. The Pembrokeshire handler enjoyed some success in the division with Serabad in 2007/08, although his overall record in the sphere is not prolific. Sending out twenty-five juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, only three of whom would be winners, he has not experienced a first or second time out scorer and his last runner came in December 2019. Forever Forward's pedigree is also patchy as Exceed and Excel has enjoyed just one winning juvenile from eighteen and the closest relative with hurdling form, prior to Totalize at 4/3, is the fair hurdler High Day at 3/1. While the high rating entitles Forever Forward to respect, and Peter Bowen has an overall strike rate of 25% at Cartmel, enthusiasm is tempered by the patchy profile and potentially dubious attitude.

    So Savvy chg Rebecca Menzies f2-0-0 (-) 64
    Sepoy (Haafhd){4-m}(3.00) 3/1 Elaando 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Folkestone 1999
    Though yet to break into the upper echelons of the training ranks, Rebecca Menzies did enjoy her highest tally of winners last season and her record in juvenile hurdles is a respectable one given her ammunition. Along with a solid two winners from nine thus far, five of her eight qualifying charges have improved for the switch between codes, with the 62.50% rate far exceeding the 38.42% standard. Her first runner this term is set to be the twice raced maiden So Savvy. Making his debut at Newcastle in late June, he ran green but was not disgraced when finishing midfield, running to a mark in the mid-sixties. However, he was unable to build on that effort when last seen at Ripon in early July as while he was close up for a long way, he weakened passing the distance before finishing over a seventeen length eighth of eleven. The pedigree does not give rise to optimism either as Sepoy is winless from nine runners in the sphere, Haafhd's fine record as a sire has not been carried by his broodmares, and while Dodging Bullets (4/2) and Elgin (4/4) appear in the shadows of the damline, the nearest winning jumper is the fair Elaando at 3/1.

    The Bravest rog Iain Jardine f5-0-2 (67) 71 j1-0-0 (-) 78 79
    Jukebox Jury (Silvano){8-b}(0.45) 2/1 Townshend 1st 3m Handicap Chase (136), Ascot 2020
    Beginning the year with a rating of 71, which came courtesy of a narrow second in a Pontefract nursery during the Autumn, The Bravest failed to show on his reappearance, although his sixth of seven three weeks prior to his hurdles bow at Market Rasen was at least a step in the right direction. A son of Jukebox Jury and a nephew of the useful staying chaser Townshend, The Bravest represents a yard with a fair record in the sphere. He was the best backed horse on his hurdling debut, starting at 16/5 having been available at 7/1 during the morning. However, his jumping was very poor in the early stages as he skewed quite erratically over the first four flights. His hurdling marginally improved from there and after leaving the back in last position, he made some headway on the home turn. However, was unable to maintain his progress and was never dangerous. Beaten thirteen lengths in the end, The Bravest is probably capable of showing more now his yard is in better form. However, he may benefit from a sterner test of stamina and has plenty to find with Sacre Pierre.

    Oustanding prospects
    1. Sacre Pierre
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Forever Forward
    Feasible prospects
    3. The Bravest
    Moderate prospects
    4. So Savvy

  16. #32
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    Preview review
    Difficult to have gotten this one wrong, market being what it was. Nevertheless, first four in the correct order with the winner winning as one with "outstanding prospects" should means there is no real cause for reflection here.

    Race review
    A four runner affair which only briefly threatened to deviate from expectations. The runners did not jump particularly well although the winner did tidy up his hurdling after halfway. Nothing can be drawn from the winning time as it was the slowest on the card against the standard, as well as being the slowest but one (ran on soft) of the previous renewals over the same trip. The runner-up failed to match his flat form and while those with experience improved on their debut efforts, it would only be by an arbitrary amount. Given that the field finished strung out in market order, there is no real reason to doubt the form as it stands.

    Sacre Pierre made a winning racecourse debut at Uttoxeter five weeks earlier and this well-bred youngster set the standard on that performance. A solid, long odds-on favourite, Sacre Pierre initially tucked in behind the leaders before going to the front entering the wood side second time round. His early jumping lacked fluency as he was steady and close at the first two before clipping the fourth. However, he soon remembered his job at the halfway stage and was neat over the next three. Though he was briefly and narrowly headed leaving the back, Sacre Pierre soon found another gear to see off his challenger. He did wander quite erratically on the approach to the last, but this was much more likely due to a lapse in concentration than any temperament concerns as he was smooth around all of the other turns, and ran true along the run-in. Beyond his being in good shape and confirming the promise of his debut, not much more was learned of Sacre Pierre. The bare form is nothing special, but he can jump well and is not short of an engine so while there is nothing controversial about his remaining at 66/1 for the Triumph, it will be interesting to see how far he can go when stepping up in class. 109

    Forever Forward has a higher flat rating than most recruits to the division and his running in the double green is bound to draw some interest. He is a rare juvenile for Peter Bowen and the first Souede/Munir runner for his new trainer, although some of his schooling had been conducted under the care of Henrietta Knight who won the Anniversary Hurdle with Stompin in 1995. Drifting from 15/8 to 11/4 during the day's trading, Forever Forward drifted further in the ring and was sent off as 4/1 second favourite. He attempted to dispute the lead in the early exchanges, but he gave his hurdles enough air to cost him ground and momentum at each flight and was relegated to third on leaving the wood side first time. Off the bridle on the approach to two out, he made heavy weather of making any inroads on the leader and would only take second on the run-in. The performance was a fair way off his flat form, but it was an outing marked by inexperience and the possible application of scissors and/or headgear may bring about enough improvement for him to be competitive in this sphere. 92

    The Bravest was not unfancied on his Market Rasen hurdling bow at the beginning of the month, but poor hurdling let him down and he failed to justify the support. He was once again the subject of confidence and was sent off at 9/2 having been available at 10/1 in the ring at one point. Going straight into the lead, his poor hurdling threatened to re-emerge as he was very steady, big and slow at the first. However, Conor O'Farrell made his mount's mind up from there and The Bravest responded with much more fluent jumps over the next couple of flights. Foreshadowing the winner's antics at the last, The Bravest wandered around on the approach to the fourth and while he got over it well enough, this was sufficient to light him up for a while. He was not hurdling fluently from there and he would lose his lead going onto the wood side second time. The Bravest briefly regained an advantage on the long run between the last two, but was left behind once the winner found another gear and an untidy jump at the last saw him lose second shortly after. This was an improvement from his introduction at the start of the month, but he will need moderate company to be challenging for a win at this juncture and may be suited either by time or a generous handicap mark. 87

    So Savvy made his first racecourse appearance with a midfield placing at Newcastle in June, but was unable to match that effort at Ripon on his only subsequent outing. He received some support at long odds during the day, but more than trebled in price in the ring and started the race at 66/1. Rather fractious at the start, he began the race in last place and would keep a firm grip of this position throughout. His hurdling left plenty to be desired as along with reaching at his flights, he also had a habit of stumbling on landing. So Savvy was still just about in touch leaving the back, but would be allowed to come home in his own time once the race had left him behind. 38

  17. #33
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    Better late than never, the review of Friday's race at Down Royal. The preview for tomorrow's contest at Worcester should hopefully be done before bedtime...

    Preview review
    No preview was written on this contest due to the fact that with temporary accommodation comes temporary sleep. The spreadsheets had been made and the introduction partially written, but further progress was curtailed by absolute fatigue. As such, I can only look at this race in hindsight while applying what may have been my processes going into a more lucid preview. While Albert Camus was an interesting newcomer with a decent pedigree, those coming from John Gosden rarely match their flat exploits in juvenile hurdles. As experience is useful at Down Royal, Whyzzat would likely have been given the strong prospects, although his massive drift in the market would have been a concern. The winner would not have been readily dismissed although the trainer hitherto being without a winner in the sphere would have been a drawback, although her sample size was small and both her prize money per race and improvement figures were respectable. The runner-up, who represented a trainer without a winner in the sphere, and a sire with a very modest record, was the subject of a heavy gamble. There probably would have been plenty to assess had the preview been written, but without same, much would be speculative at this point.

    Race review
    Northern Ireland, or the North of Ireland, hosted its first juvenile hurdle of the season at Down Royal last Friday. One of three held at the venue each term, Friday's corresponding contest tends not to be as strong as the one held during the Champion Chase meeting; which has been taken in the past decade by Triumph placed Guitar Pete, Coeur Sublime, Mega Fortune, and last season's winner Quilixios. Indeed, nothing coming out of previous renewals have subsequently landed any major juvenile prizes, although Tocororo, second in 2015, and Tudor City, unplaced the same year, did go on to become useful sorts. Friday's contest looked a fairly standard affair overall with the hurdling form being little better than average and the newcomers having patchy profiles. That the previous winner and the highly rated newcomer were both heavy drifters in the market detracted from the race's apparent strength in depth and the field being in a bunch turning for home further denigrates the form. Despite all fifteen runners completing the course, the quality of jumping was fair at best. The winner travelled nicely and won comfortably, but the stability of the form in behind is far from assured.

    Realist was formerly trained by Michael Bell, whose former inmates had a healthy winner to runner rate of 29.87% going into this contest. He won one of his eight starts on the flat, a Chelmsford handicap off 65 back in April, and his official rating of 74 was the third highest brought into the race. Shaping like a stayer on the flat, this nephew of Oaks runner-up Flight Of Fancy, herself the dam of two winning hurdlers, gave sire Camelot his first winner of the season, and his trainer her first winner in the sphere on her twenty-sixth attempt. Opening at 8/1, Realist drifted out to 14/1 at the off and while he was calm in the preliminaries, he was one of several who got quite warm at the start. Setting off just behind the leaders, Realist had only a few behind him going along the back - although with Bryan Cooper showing little urgency, this was likely more by design than Realist's racing lazily. Though he still only had one behind jumping three out, Realist needed only to be shoved along to make smooth headway and was within half-a-dozen lengths of the lead at the penultimate flight. He was rather steep going over the last, but he appeared to get more momentum from picking himself up than any impetus commanded by his rider and he crossed the line two very comfortable lengths ahead of the pack. The steep jump at the last was not the only error made during this round of jumping as he was slightly skewed at the first, went marginally to his right at the second, was slow when clipping the fourth, got in tight at the sixth and made his only serious error at three out where he did not get too high and stumbled for a stride on landing. Nevertheless, it would be harsh to decry his hurdling too much, particularly as he was still clever when atoning for his errors. With several of his rivals seemingly underperforming, and the winning time being no better than fair, this performance would not be worth a great deal at face value. Notwithstanding, Realist probably matched his flat mark and with plenty of scope for further improvement, he could be a reasonable recruit to the sphere. 109

    Bell Ex One had already faced the starter on sixteen occasions prior to his hurdling debut, but this dual winner had been running consistently since the spring and ran to a new career best last time when landing a fourteen furlong handicap at Galway at the start of the month. Trainer Ray Cody has yet to have a winning juvenile from four and sire Excelebration had a lamentable record of one win from fifty-three starts in the sphere. There were positives on the damline as uncle Loch Long finished third in Punchestown's Champion 4YO Hurdle, the third dam produced Long Walk third Top Spin, and the fourth dam had the good handicap hurdler Roark. Furthermore, Ray Cody earmarked a hurdling career for Bell Ex One after his Galway win and his enthusiasm was reflected in the market as he was back into 13/8 favouritism having been available at 8/1 during the day. Despite having a good size about him, Bell Ex One made several mistakes during his journey as he was close and untidy at the first and fourth, slow when ridden into the fifth and was very steady when close at the next. He was slow again at three out and his trailing his hind legs through the last cost him further momentum. Bell Ex One did travel nicely enough in midfield, although he did not quite have the pace to make any serious inroads prior to the race's conclusion. This was not a bad introduction however, and he should be up to winning a race of this nature given a more demanding test of stamina. 104

    Television finished nearer last than first on her three flat outings since her debut in late May, but her rating of 60 did not make her a forlorn prospect for hurdling and she was able to surpass that standard on her third try over hurdles. While she attracted some support through the day, this had been completely negated in the ring as she drifted from 10/1 to double that price at the off. Held up in touch, as she had been on her previous outing at Ballinrobe, Television was close and untidy at the first, and skewed over the second, but jumped without mishap from there. She did not settle particularly well during the contest, but still had Mike O'Connor hard at work from three out. Television was able to gain four places on the run-in, and put up her best performance to date in the process. While she would have to find a weak contest to get off the mark, she can remain competitive in this sphere. Furthermore, although her pedigree suggests otherwise, she shapes as though a sterner test would suit. 96

    Albert Camus, after fetching 115,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale, finished his spell at John Gosden's with a rating of 89. This mark, fully deserved during a campaign which saw him win three times in handicaps from ten to twelve furlongs, was much the highest in this line-up and puts him the 97th percentile of all flat recruits in the division. There was also plenty to like about his profile coming into the contest as his new handler had a 27.27% winner to runner rate in the sphere, sire Teofilo had a rate of 34.15% and his cousins include the talented Lord Jim and the winning juvenile Sebastian Beach. Juveniles formerly trained by John Gosden who maintain their flat form over hurdles are in a minority, but this would not justify Albert Camus drifting out to 15/2 having been 2/1 in the morning. Racing fairly keenly in midfield on the outer, he was somewhat novicey over the first few flights and got in tight when slow to get away from the sixth. Still travelling well within himself, he made an almighty blunder at three out where he barely got off the ground, forcing Simon Torrens to sit extremely tight in order to maintain the partnership. Though slightly ponderous at the penultimate flight, he was able to touch down in a marginal lead which he just about maintained after another unassured jump at the last. However, that would spell the end of his race and he was passed by three rivals before reaching the finish line. Albert Camus ran a good couple of stones below his flat best and while he has the credentials to leave this form well behind, this season's better races look beyond his compass at this juncture. 103

    Gamigin ran with credit in his first two outings on the flat at Leopardstown and Naas back in April. However, he failed to build on that promise and while he was able to get off the mark on his final start in that sphere, that win came in a modest ten furlong Sligo claimer after which he was bought for €10,000. New trainer James McAuley has had a winner in the sphere from four, and while Dark Angel is no better than fair overall, Gamigin is a nephew of two winning hurdlers and the cousin of another. Unfancied in the market, Gamigin was never far away from the front and took a share of the lead at the distance. However, that would be the extent of his effort and he faded to finish just over five lengths behind in fifth. His cause was not helped by his wandering into the last three hurdles, particularly not at two out where he barely took off. His earlier jumping was not much better either and this would be an area where he would have to improve. Gamigin was not disgraced on his hurdling debut, but given his poor hurdling and inconsistency on the flat, it remains to be seen if he can build on this effort. 100

    Virtual Hug was twice placed on the flat, although he never ran beyond a mile in that sphere and had a tendency to pull in his races. Withdrawn from his intended hurdling debut at Ballinrobe due to the ground being on the soft side of good, he was largely unconsidered in the market here. Running in a first time tongue tie, he went straight into the lead where he raced freely, but jumped adequately for much of the contest. His first error came at three out where he was steady and stumbled on landing. From here, he found himself challenged for the lead and while he would still be pitching at the last, his untidy jumping told that he was running on empty and he would fade to an eight length sixth by the line. This was not a bad introduction, but his stamina is rather suspect at this juncture and while this can improve with maturity, he may require sharper tests to be seen to good effect in the near future. 98

    Whyzzat won Roscommon's seasonal curtain raiser at the start of the month and although it was not tremendous form, it was solid enough to give him a live chance here. However, his trainer has been going through a lean patch and there was little confidence in the market as he drifted from 9/2 in the morning to 11/1 at the off. He had jumped well on his hurdling debut and there was no cause for complaint in his round here either as he took each flight without mishap. Nor was there anything wrong with the way he travelled as he settled well just behind the leaders and was always close enough if good enough. While improvement between first and second outings would generally be a given, it would be an exaggeration to describe this as a flop as he was only a few pounds below his Roscommon performance. Trainer form might be the most plausible explanation although it could also be that he was feeling the effects of this being his thirteenth race of the year. 103

    Lunar Power, representing a Noel Meade yard coming off a fine season in the division, was his trainer's highest rated recruit of the new campaign to the tune of over a stone. His mark of 72 was the result of win at Dundalk in April followed by a succession of second placings in handicaps at Leopardstown and Galway over distances between thirteen and fifteen furlongs. Sire Power had a strong winner to runner rate in the sphere of 33.33%, and a remarkable improvement rate of 85.71%. Half-brother Mariners Moon was only a modest winning chaser, but he is a cousin of useful winner Red Force One along with Zoffany who is a good sire in the division. Such a profile saw Lunar Power backed into second favouritism, but his performance can only be regarded as disappointing. Held up in the rear, he was slow when hopping over the first and very steady at the second. Although his hurdling tidied up over the next few, his progress through the field was leisurely and his being big and skewed over three out only added to his task. Plugging on in the closing stages to get within nine lengths of the winner, Lunar Power shaved very much like he would be suited by a more demanding test of stamina. However, since his decent flat form came on good ground, it is yet to be established whether he can get by on soft ground, or will need distances unavailable to him prior to the new year. 97

    Alice Kitty was well fancied ahead of her hurdling debut at Roscommon where she was making her first appearance since being claimed out of Jessica Harrington's yard for €5,000. However, she took a real clattering when falling at the first and would make it no further at the second time of asking when (softly) unseating at Killarney. These experiences saw her sent off at 22/1 here and racing in the rear, she was steady at the first. Slow jumping would repeat itself on numerous occasions and while she passed a few beaten horses in the straight, she never threatened to make an impression. Unless she is able to gain confidence over hurdles, Alice Kitty may be better served by a return to the flat. 84

    Grey Angel was another representative of Noel Meade, but had little flat form as a two-year-old and jumped poorly on her first appearance of 2021 at Roscommon where she was well beaten. Starting at 150/1, she raced towards the rear of midfield. While she was big and slightly skewed at the first and wandered into the fourth, her jumping was better this time around. She was also baulked at the second and fifth before making minor headway in the closing stages. This was an improvement on her debut outing, but the performance merely matches her modest two-year-old form and she still has plenty to find going forward. 83

    Supposedtobe failed to win on the flat, but went into his hurdling debut at Killarney with decent credentials and was not disgraced in finishing third to Feigh. Though he drifted through the day's exchanges, he was subject to some support in the ring being clipped from 10/1 to 7/1. Settled well enough in mid division, he was steady and tight over the first and got close to the second, but otherwise hurdled reasonably well. He was still in the leading bunch turning for home but completely downed tools under pressure and weakened to a seventeen length eleventh crossing the line. Supposedtobe has the ability to be competitive in the sphere, but his attitude thus far has been far from encouraging. 88

    Erikson is a cousin of capable hurdlers Wajaaha and Taaresh, but he fetched only 3,500 guineas at the Gainsborough dispersal at the Tattersalls February sale and showed next to nothing on his sole flat outing earlier in the month. Sent off at 125/1, he was held up towards the rear and jumped slowly throughout before finishing tired. 73

    Burren Shore was making his racecourse debut here and while trainer Stuart Crawford has yet to have a winner in the sphere, his charge was not completely unfancied at 20/1. Sire Moohaajim's sole previous juvenile hurdler was the winning Recent Revelations, granddam Dochas won a maiden hurdle as a four-year-old before producing the fair Crystal Earth, while 2002 Triumph winner Scolardy appears at 5/3 on the damline. However, none of these genetic credentials would make an appearance here. Sent off into a prominent position, Burren Shore raced freely, wandered and stumbled at the first, was untidy over the second and fourth, got in close to the next two and his jumping completely fell apart over the last couple of flights. His position had been lost with half a mile left to run and he was ultimately beaten thirty-seven lengths. Burren Shore may develop with time, but there is no immediate promise on this evidence. 69

    War Thunder began his career with Richard Hannon and if his Sligo third back in May is to be believed, he would not be a forlorn hope in the sphere. However, there is little pointing towards hurdling success in his pedigree and after losing his rider at the first at Killarney, he made another mistake at the next without a rider. Initially held up in midfield here, he managed to get baulked over the first three while also jumping big by his own volition. Dropping to the rear, his hurdling did not gain fluency for a clearer path and he was labouring a long way out before beating just one rival home. 64

    Guest was tailed off on his sole start as a two-year-old, and since left Ken Condon to join a yard that has yet to have a winner in the sphere from two. Unfancied on his hurdling debut at Roscommon, he was detached after getting badly hampered at the first and pulled up before halfway. Sent off the rank outsider here, he raced prominently and though he was fresh, there was little wrong with his hurdling. However, he was losing his position four furlongs from home and after getting hampered at three out, came home in his own time. Guest is probably better than this, but he has not shown enough to be competitive any time soon. 45

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    Many thanks, as ever, BH. I agree with your assessment of the Down Royal race, except to remark that while Mrs Foster might never have trained a juvenile hurdle winner before, the yard of which she is temporarily in charge certainly has.

    As for the result, it was a case of the ex Bell one beating Bell Ex One.
    Last edited by Grey; 31st August 2021 at 12:56 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    while Mrs Foster might never have trained a juvenile hurdle winner before, the yard of which she is temporarily in charge certainly has.
    This is something I have considered, but as it is unclear how detached Mr Elliott is from the yard, I can only really go by the record as it stands under her own name. After all, many great racing yards, and the facilities and staff that come with them, have been handed over to trainers who have failed to maintain the form of the previous tenant/landlord.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    As for the result, it was a case of the ex Bell one beating Bell Ex One.

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    The preview for tomorrow's contest now with bonus tl;dr supplement! If that isn't worth a like/re-tweet/whatever then I don't know what is!

    https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/stat...38916323450884

    Thank you

    Having missed out last term due to the happenings, Lake Worcester is set to host its sole juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow. Though the race is generally contested by ordinary sorts, Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice, winners in 2016 and 2018 respectively, went on to make an impact in graded company. This year's renewal is essentially a maiden contest although the field is headed by a pair who had shown respectable form on their sole outings. A flat, left handed circuit with a long home straight, winning DIs at Worcester are quite inconsistent due to a relatively low sample size. Nevertheless, given the pace that often prevails at the venue, there would appear to be an inclination towards stamina. Furthermore, with the clear round rate of 94.12% being the third lowest in Britain, Worcester can catch out inexperienced sorts. The going is currently described as good and with no rain forecast between now and racing, the ground is being watered to maintain.

    Boulette bg Nigel Hawke f6-0-1 (71) 72
    Epaulette (Tiznow){5-f}(1.00) 0.5 Pari Passu 10th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Kilbeggan 2019
    Nigel Hawke's record in the sphere is a solid one overall with his winner runner rate of 19.30% essentially matching the standard. However, when sourcing his juveniles from Jim Bolger, that record increases to five winners from eight including all three scoring last term - spearheaded by the useful Historic Heart. Boulette is set to be the first such juvenile making said switch to appear this term and his flat form is the strongest available in this line-up. Last of six on his sole outing last year, Boulette failed to win in five starts this season, although he has ran consistently and the company he kept justifies a mark that exceeds his BHA rating of 71. He sees his races out well and should have no difficulty getting the trip, although he has been difficult to settle in his latest outings which is never a positive in this sphere. Epaulette has already had a winner and a placed horse in the division this season, but that is the extent of promise in the pedigree as half-brother Pari Passu, his only relative to try hurdling, achieved nothing over jumps. Boulette is still an interesting recruit to the game given his connections and overall flat form, although as his trainer has a first time rate of just 3.57%, and he will want to settle better than he has done recently, he may well come on for the experience.

    Business Flight bg Gary Brown f9-0-1 (48) 66
    Fed Biz (Birdstone){9-f}(2.08) 4/3 Up Jumps A Monster 1st Ky Alta Handicap, Northlands Park 2012
    Starting his career with Robert Cowell, whose former inmates have won none of their eleven races in the sphere, Business Flight put up his best performance when third off 62 in a seven furlong handicap at Newcastle in March. Since then, he finished well beaten at Kempton and Chelmsford, with his form taking a nosedive after changing hands for 9,000 guineas at Tattersalls. Gary Brown has had a couple of winners in the division, but none for nine years and his improvement rate stands at just 20%. The American bred Business Flight has nothing in his pedigree to suggest he might take to jumping and although he has a 4/3 relative called Up Jumps A Monster, that horse never actually raced over hurdles.

    Corporal Jones bc Donald McCain j1-0-1 (-) 87 91
    War Command (Montjeu){3-h}(0.85) 1/0 Bessie Lou 1st 2m1f Mares Maiden Hurdle, Bellewstown 2011
    Costing £23,000 purchase at last year's Tattersalls Ireland Breeze Up, Corporal Jones went to Market Rasen at the start of August without any previous racecourse experience. His profile was not without substance however as War Command has a couple of winners in the sphere, dam Bessie Lou was a winning hurdler, half-brother Cheeky Rascal won a juvenile hurdle and useful sorts Four Sox (3/1), Joke Dancer (3/1), Singapore Belle (4/1) and Asterion Forlonge (5/4) also appear on the damline. His trainer had already sent Sacre Pierre to make a winning racecourse debut and while not a plunge exactly , Corporal Jones was backed from a morning 7/2 to a steady in-ring 11/4. Understandably for a debutant, Corporal Jones showed signs of greenness, although it was more conspicuous than alarming. He raced keenly while tracking the leaders in the early stages, but had managed to settle better along the back stretch. His jumping was novicey and he made errors of one minor fashion or another at most flights. He was able to follow the winner when he made his move at the distance, but did not have enough to make any real inroads until the final fifty yards where the race was already put to bed. All told, it was a respectable debut effort and though the performance merely places him in the top third of juveniles seen thus far, the expected improvement would make him a threat in ordinary company for his in-form trainer.

    Gavin bg Joe Ponting f6-0-1 (50) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 39 33
    Bated Breath (Montjeu){16-c}(0.71) 2/1 Keys 2nd 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Aintree 2011
    Prior to his hurdles bow at Stratford last week, Gavin had shown only moderate form on the flat for Rod Millman, although the damline does feature numerous winning jumpers. Completely unfancied in the market, starting at 125/1, he was initially held up in the rear. However, after getting baulked on landing at the second, he became lit up and pulled himself into a clear lead. He stumbled on the path approaching the third, but was able to recover in time to get over the flight safely enough and his jumping was reasonable from there. However, his exertions had taken their toll by the penultimate flight and he weakened rapidly before being the last to finish. There were some positives to be drawn from his speed and generally safe and sage jumping, although he could not be approached with optimism going forward on the basis of that performance or his overall profile.

    Keepyourdreamsbig bg Olly Murphy j1-0-1 (-) 86 97
    Vision d'Etat (Enrique){4-r}(0.78) 1/0 Take This Waltz 1st Prix D'Essai Des Pouliches, Enghien 2011
    Very similar to Corporal Jones, Keepyourdreamsbig made his first racecourse appearance in a juvenile hurdle this term, is out of a winning jumper, and ran a promising second on his introduction. A representative of Vision d'Etat's final crop, a sire with a very good record in the sphere, he is also a nephew of Prix Aguado fifth Great Shudder along with three other winners. Passing the Tattersalls Ireland ring for €25,000 as a yearling, Keepyourdreamsbig was the first unraced newcomer to represent Olly Murphy - a trainer with a fair 16.67% winner to runner rate in the sphere. Despite taking on two previous winners, he was not without support at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, starting at 6/1 having opened at 10/1. Held up in touch, he made his move on the turn for home and appeared to be travelling the strongest at the distance - trading at 1.2 in-running. However, while he loomed alongside Burristo, it took him most of the run-in to finally get his measure by which time subsequent Cartmel winner Sacre Pierre had already flown. Though his jumping was safe, it did lack the winner's neatness as he was prone to giving his flights more air than necessary. Nevertheless, this is an issue which ought to resolve itself with experience and having shown enough tenacity to win the battle for second, a race of this nature should be well within his scope. However, while his form was already the strongest before receiving its recent boost, Olly Murphy's charges were in good nick at the time. With the yard currently going through a lean spell, his prospects are a little less clear cut.

    Nazwa bg Oliver Sherwood f1-0-0 (-) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 71 68
    Sepoy (Authorized){9-e}(0.63) 2/1 Nisaal 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (80), Sedgefield 2012
    Oliver Sherwood is not renowned for his juvenile hurdlers, although he is perfectly capable of training them as his 39.39% winner to runner rate attests. Nazwa, who shaped with promise on his sole flat outing for David Simcock back in February, was easy to back ahead of his hurdles bow at Stratford in late July. He raced mostly in the rear and made only minor headway on the approach to the home turn. Several novicey errors were posted during his round and while he is entitled to come on for the experience, more will be needed in the short term.

    Vunipola bg Emma Lavelle f2-0-0 (-) 68
    Vadamos (Marju){1-n}(0.50) 2/1 Vorashann 1st 2m1½f Handicap Hurdle (116), Fontwell 2020
    Another trainer more noted for her exploits outside of the division, Emma Lavelle has gotten her fair share of winners and she enjoyed particular success in the 2000s with Bouggler and Crack Away Jack. However, juvenile hurdling has taken a backseat at Bonita Racing Stables and the last time one of hers found the winner's enclosure was in April 2017. Her first runner this term is set to be Vunipola who ran twice for Brian Meehan at the backend of last year. Having already had a wind operation prior to his debut, Vunipola ran with credit in finishing just over three lengths fifth at Kempton over a mile, but would not build on that effort at Lingfield on New Year's Eve and been absent ever since. Former inmates of Brian Meehan's win their fair share in the sphere, and there is some encouragement in the pedigree. Sire Vadamos is already off the mark with his first crop and while classy flat stayer Vazirabad is the most famous relative, winning hurdlers Vorashann (2/1) and Visibility (3/1) are also close on the damline. Vunipola's overall profile makes him a fairly interesting recruit, although it is not the most substantial and he has quite a bit to prove in this company after an eight month break.

    Dark Motive bf Jamie Snowden f6-0-1 (58) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 72 69
    Motivator (Zamindar){16-c}(1.07) 3/1 Prospect Wells 1st National Spirit Hurdle (G2), Fontwell 2013
    Following a six race flat career without a win, Dark Motive made the switch to a jumps yard without changing ownership, despite a falling handicap mark. Previously with Ralph Beckett, former residents of Kimpton Down Stables have a respectable winners to runners rate of 28%, although neither of the pair who ended up with Jamie Snowden managed to win as juveniles. A daughter of Motivator, whose juveniles count twelve winners from thirty-six, her third dam produced three useful sorts in Prospect Wells, Brooklyn's Gold and Old Way. However, the trainer's record in the sphere is less compelling as only three of his twenty juveniles have been winners, with none of them scoring prior to January. Steady in the market ahead of her jumps bow at Stratford, she raced in midfield, made numerous errors during the contest and did not have the pace to get involved. Ultimately beaten twenty-seven lengths, if Dark Motive is to become competitive in the sphere, it is more likely to be further down the road than any time soon.

    Free Degrees rof Sarah-Jayne Davies f3-0-0 (37) 39 j2-0-0 (-) 61 67
    Free Eagle (Verglas){5-g}(0.65) 4/1 Englishtown 1st 2m5½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Southwell 2009
    Showing little on the flat during three outings prior to this February, Free Degrees has fared no better during two attempts over hurdles. Racing keenly and prominently at both Uttoxeter and Stratford, she made errors and faded some way out on each occasion.

    Sentilly bf Alexandra Dunn f2-0-0 (-) 6 j2-0-0 (-) 49 46
    Air Chief Marshal (Elusive City){16-g}(1.40) 1/1 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
    Twice beaten by over thirty lengths on the flat during the winter, Sentilly's hurdles campaign has started no better. Her jumping was novicey at both Newton Abbot and Stratford and while she improved between outings, she still finished tired last time when beaten by fifty-one lengths.

    TL;DR
    Boulette - Horses who join Nigel Hawke from Jim Bolger's have a strong record, and his flat form is the strongest in the contest. However, patchy pedigree, an inability to settle and trainer's first-time strike rate are not encouraging.
    Business Flight - Regressive on flat and American pedigree offers no respite.
    Corporal Jones - Green on racecourse debut at Market Rasen but put up respectable performance in the context of this race. About half-a-stone to find with Keepyourdreamsbig but yard is in better form.
    Gavin - Moderate on flat but not unfeasibly bred for the sphere. While he jumped smartly on his hurdles debut, he was ultimately well beaten and has lots to find on form.
    Keepyourdreamsbig - Out of a good juvenile hurdler in France and made promising racecourse debut at Uttoxeter behind Sacre Pierre. That form has since been boosted but the yard could be in better form.
    Nazwa - Lightly raced having had just one start under either code. Shown promise on each outing but still a bit to find with the leading contenders.
    Vunipola - Promise on debut at Kempton last November and pedigree is not without merit. Joins a yard capable of performing in the division but has not won in the sphere for over four years.
    Dark Motive - Regressive on flat and trainer yet to train a winning juvenile before January. Made numerous errors when well beaten on hurdles debut.
    Free Degrees - No worthwhile form on flat or hurdles.
    Sentilly - Even less in the way of worthwhile form.

    Strong prospects
    1. Corporal Jones
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Keepyourdreamsbig
    Feasible prospects
    3. Boulette
    4. Nazwa
    5. Vunipola
    Moderate prospects
    6. Dark Motive
    Negligible prospects
    7. Gavin
    8. Free Degrees
    9. Business Flight
    10. Sentilly

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    Preview review
    Corporal Jones was initially given the strong prospects. However, the split between himself and Keepyourdreamsbig was due to the relative form of their trainers and those who were able to catch my updates will have seen that Olly Murphy's earlier winner probably tipped the balance in the favour of the latter. While it initially appeared that the noted greenness of Corporal Jones manifested during the closing stages, allowing Boulette to take second, it emerged that he returned lame on his near-fore which would explain his leaning during the closing stages. Boulette was the next best prospect due to the Bolger/Hawke connection and if one takes Vunipola out of the equation, the rest of the field finished according to the prospects list. Taking this race in isolation, I can only be pleased that the processes that went into the preview worked out rather well. Nevertheless, this does not change the immutable fact that I am not a tipster...

    Race review
    Though this was effectively a maiden contest, decent potential was brought into the race by the two experienced market leaders while a couple of newcomers brought flat form sufficient to win a race of this nature. The field travelled well enough for the most part and while the quality of jumping was not exceptional, it was respectable for the kind of contest. Unusually for Worcester, the pace was quite sedate. The winning time was quicker than that of the novice hurdle on the card, although that race began at a crawl and its sectionals were marginally faster throughout. The field was still bunched up entering the straight, but they were spread out well enough by the line and the positions were filled by those entitled to be there. However, while the form looks acceptable for what it is, that the runner-up will have been suited by a stronger pace and looks sure to improve, and the third finished the race lame, it can not be said with confidence that these placings would be replicated in a rerun a few months down the line. Notwithstanding, juvenile hurdlers who come out of contests at Worcester go on to have a strike rate of 16.47% during the remainder of the season which places the course behind only Aintree and Ascot, and just ahead of Cheltenham. The winners' subsequent strike rate of 42.31% is the highest in Britain and Ireland. It is prudent to account for a comparatively small sample size that is skewed heavily by prolific winners Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice. Nevertheless, excluding that pair, the subsequent strike rate of 12.18% is still above average so it would be no surprise to see this race throw up a few winners over the coming months.

    Keepyourdreamsbig, bred very much to be a juvenile hurdler, came into this contest on the back of a promising second to recent Cartmel winner Sacre Pierre at Uttoxeter. That performance already set the clear form standard prior to Sacre Pierre's subsequent success. Trainer Olly Murphy had been going through a lean spell in the interim, but with the yard scoring at Uttoxeter earlier in the day, there was more confidence in his charge here who displaced Corporal Jones at the top of the market. Taking the lead early, albeit at a sedate tempo, he jumped more neatly than on his debut with the only criticisms being that he was somewhat big and skewed over the third and slightly tight at the fourth, two out and the last where he was bumped on the approach. Injecting more pace turning for home, he was challenged up the straight by Corporal Jones until his rival went slightly lame; and after leaving him behind on the run-in, had built up enough of a lead to fend off the fast finishing Boulette by half a length. With more assured hurdling than first time, this marks an improvement of roughly half a dozen pounds and there should be further to come with experience. While still some way off pattern class and far from guaranteed to confirm placings with his two rivals in the future, there is enough about Keepyourdreamsbig's attitude, ability and aptitude to suggest that he is is capable of defying a penalty. 103

    Boulette is the latest in a series of juvenile hurdlers to have joined Nigel Hawke from Jim Bolger; a group which has produced five winners from eight prior to this contest. A six race maiden in Ireland, his performances exceeded his official mark of 71 and he shaped as though stamina would be no concern in this sphere. His new trainer's first time out strike rate is modest and with his yard's charges generally improving with experience, Boulette was slightly uneasy in the market. Sweating up beforehand, Boulette had a habit of pulling on the flat and he raced keenly off the modest pace here. Initially in midfield, he jumped the path crossing the stands, but was soon tracking the pacesetters and was within a couple of lengths of the lead jumping three out. He hurdled well enough save for skewing at the first and slightly reaching at the fourth, although the shift in gears rather caught him off guard as he got close to three out, and while he jumped the last two fine, he was not so quick in getting away from his hurdles. This cost him valuable momentum which exacerbated his lack of pace. He was about six lengths behind at the furlong marker and though able to rally after reorganising himself, he gave himself too much to do and was unable to bridge the gap in time. Given that he shaped like a horse who should come on plenty for the experience, Boulette probably emerges as the one to take out of this race and if he finds suitable conditions, he would be of interest over his next few outings. 102

    Corporal Jones, like the winner, came here on the back of a sole outing which saw him finish a promising second in a juvenile hurdle. Initially installed as clear favourite, he drifted out to 9/4 in the ring before being clipped back into 15/8 at the off. Conspicuously green at Market Rasen first time, he also made numerous errors on his debut. However, while he was still a bit fresh in the early stages, he had settled before too long and despite getting checked on landing at the first, put in a tidy round of jumping. Tucked in just behind the lead throughout, he was the only one to match the winner's turn of foot entering the straight and jumped the penultimate flight with a marginal lead. However, he stumbled on landing which is where he probably picked up his reported lameness on his near-fore. Drifting to his left on the approach to the last, he bumped into his rival and was skewed going over the flight. While he bravely renewed his challenge on the run-in, his being steered to a straight line ended his momentum and he finished the race a couple of lengths behind the winner. Had Corporal Jones not stumbled on landing at two out, where he was trading at 1.27, it is quite likely he would have won the race. He is certainly capable of winning a race of this nature if this experience does not leave a mark. It is hoped that the injury is none too serious and he is able to make a full recovery before too long. 101

    Nazwa, whose previous experience counted one run under either code, had shown some promise without troubling the leaders when finishing fifth on each of his outings. He raced in the rear when last seen at Stratford and did the same here. Nevertheless, apart from getting close to the sixth, his hurdling was much better on this occasion. Nazwa brought up the rear of remaining pack turning for home and rather than making up any real ground, he merely improved his position by virtue of his rivals dropping away. A couple of lengths was made on the run-in, but he never looked a threat before finishing just under four lengths behind in fourth. Notwithstanding, this marks a new career best in Nazwa's short career and another respectable effort in similar company would not be beyond him. 99

    Dark Motive had been regressive on the flat and although she is bred to hold her own in this sphere, her debut effort at Stratford was rather tepid. Subject to support during the day, starting at 7/1 having been 14/1 earlier, she raced more prominently than she had first time. There were less errors this time around although she was still very untidy at the first and got in close when ridden into the fourth before jumping left at two out. Though still travelling well rounding the bend, she found herself outpaced at the top of the home straight and was labouring from thereon. It was reported that she had lost her right-fore shoe, although it is difficult to guess how badly this affected her performance. Dark Motive ran to a better level of form than first time, but she is still some way off her flat best and she may need a fair handicap mark if she is to be competitive over hurdles. 84

    Gavin was only moderate on the flat for Rod Millman, but there are numerous winning jumpers in the pedigree. He became lit up on his hurdles debut at Stratford and ran out of steam before weakening rapidly. Though James Davies managed to keep him restrained in midfield, he still pulled hard and his jumping was not so tidy this time. He was still amongst the leaders turning for home, but had little left to give and was ultimately beaten by twenty lengths. Gavin is not a completely forlorn hope if he learns to settle, but he will more likely ply his trade in low-grade handicaps whatever happens. 82

    Free Degrees showed little on the flat and the descriptions for her two hurdles outings to date read as "raced keenly and prominently, made errors, faded". With first time cheekpieces applied, it was not too dissimilar on this occasion although she raced closer to midfield here. The mistakes were still there and she lost touch at the turn for home before finishing thirty lengths behind the winner. 66

    Business Flight dropped from a mark of 63 to 48 since the end of March and had nothing in his pedigree to suggest he might be adept in this sphere. Sent off at 200/1 and racing in the rear, he did not jump badly apart from being steady at the fourth and big at the fifth, and more of his impediments came from outside interference. Notwithstanding, he was off the bridle and getting detached before reaching the last in the back and eventually finished tailed off. 50

    Vunipola had not been seen since New Year's Eve but there was some promise on the first of his two outings. His pedigree is not unfeasible either and while he went out to 12/1 from an opening morning show of 6/1, he was steady in the ring and sent off at 17/2. However, he was very fresh on his first outing in eight months and along with making errors at the third, fifth and sixth, would never leave the rear of the field. Vunipola has the potential to do much better on paper, but there is little encouragement to be drawn from this evidence. 40

    Sentilly is a sibling of two who have shown reasonable form in the sphere, but has yet to show anything on either the flat or from two jumps outings. Sent off at 200/1, she started the race prominently, was steep over the first, blundered at the second, lost her position from there, jumped left along the back and was pulled up before reaching the straight. 0

  24. #38
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    Since the long 2021/22 prospects list is already starting to get quite aged, I will be updating it soon. Here's a list of who's already on, who's due an update and who might be added. If there are any horses you would like to see added, or any updates you feel would be useful, please let me know. Thank you


  25. #39
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    Preview for tomorrow's juvenile at Fontwell. The one for Perth should be up before breakfast. Enjoy

    After the cancellation of its mid August meeting, Fontwell hosts its first juvenile hurdle of the season on Sunday. A contest which has been held each year without interruption since 2005, its winners' average seasonal RPR of 111.25 is lower than those generally held at the course (114.71) which itself, is a few pounds lower than the average in the sphere. It has been won by a couple of respectable types in the past decade such as last season's dual listed winner Talking About You, and the eventually smart Vosne Romanee. This year's renewal does not threaten to be anything out of the ordinary, although it does feature the first appearance of a recruit with French jumping experience. Oneonechop heads those with British hurdles form while Tara Iti makes a bid for redemption for a yard that has won this contest on three occasions. Fontwell's clear round rate of 94.88% is in the bottom ten of the country with the figure for newcomers falling to 90.46%. The winning DIs at Fontwell of 1.15 median, 1.41 mean are on the lower side of average with the figures for this contest dropping to 1.06 and 1.36. The going is currently good, good to firm in places, and with no rain expected in the meantime, the course is being watered.

    Kinghenrytheninth bg Ben Clarke f6-0-0 (47) 48
    Heeraat (Whipper){7-f}(1.40) 1/0 Annaluna 1st 2m5½f Handicap Hurdle (97), Exeter 2012
    Ben Clarke has been training pointers for a few seasons and has earned a strike rate of 33% in hunter chases. Granted his NH licence last month, he is set to have his first runner over hurdles in the shape of Kinghenrytheninth. A maiden after six outings for Roger Teal, former inmates of whom are without a winner in the sphere from three, Kinghenrytheninth showed only moderate form on the flat at up to a mile. He was last seen beaten over nine lengths by Sir Taweel in a Windsor handicap off 50 in late April. Sire Heeraat is without a winner from four, although dam Annaluna did win a handicap over twenty-one furlongs as a three-year-old and the likes of Devilment (3/4), Atlaal (4/2) Annie Power (4/3) and Eddiemaurice (4/4) appear on the damline. Notwithstanding, Kinghenrytheninth's form leaves him with a lot to find on his rivals and his tendency to pull and inexperience beyond a mile makes his task a difficult one first time.

    Oneonechop bc David Pipe f19-6-5 (75) 79 j4-0-1 (104) 88 95
    Kheleyf (Captain Chop){16-c}(3.00) 2/1 Kheliana Chope 1st 3550m 4YO Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2020
    A six time winner in France, Oneonechop's equivalent rating of 79 placed him well above the typical recruit for the time of year. He had faded tamely on his British/hurdling debut at Stratford but finished with much more purpose and was arguably worried out of a better position when third at Newton Abbot on his second outing. Found out by the trip back at Stratford, he ran no kind of race on his return to the flat at Ffos Las, but confirmed himself to be well suited by Newton Abbot when finishing second off 104 in a handicap there a fortnight ago. Slightly keen in the early stages, he fluctuated in racing between mid division and just behind the leaders. He was boxed in on the turn for home, but while unable to make any impression on the easy winner, he outbattled his older opponents in the straight to finish a clear second. His hurdling was very neat for the most part and that performance very much sets the standard here on domestic form. Furthermore, David Pipe's juveniles have a strike rate of 21.43% at this venue and he saddled Talimos to win this contest in 2009. However, for all of the positives in the profile of Oneonechop, the extended trip around a course like Fontwell is unlikely to play to his strengths.

    Risky Business chg Martin Smith f5-0-0 (40) 47 j1-0-0 (-) 10 9
    Mastercraftsman (Dream Ahead){4-g}(2.33) 3/1 Laurel Seeker 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (100), Hereford 1998
    Though a son of the prolific Mastercraftsman, Risky Business had little else going for him going into his jumps bow at Stratford eight weeks ago. Representing a trainer without a winner in this sphere, his best effort on the flat was a five length fifth off 46 in a Yarmouth handicap. Though he briefly showed in a prominent position in the early stages, Risky Business soon lost his place after a series of cautious jumps and was struggling from the fourth. He completed in his own time and it was reported that he lost a shoe.

    Sir Taweel bg Neil King f8-1-0 (60) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 53 53
    Sir Prancealot (Duke Of Marmalade){8-f}(0.85) 3/1 Big Occasion 2nd Scottish Grand National (132), Ayr 2013
    The first representative of the season for Neil King, Sir Taweel won a mile handicap on the flat off 56 for Mohamed Moubarak in April and while he failed to progress from there, his trainer and pedigree suggests he can find his level in this sphere. The yard has a solid winner to runner rate of 31.91% with juvenile hurdlers and has won three from twelve at this venue. Sir Prancealot has had just the one winner from ten thus far, but the damline includes good jumpers such as Big Occasion (3/1), Forgotten Voice (3/1) and Aigle Royal (4/2). However, he did not make the most compelling of hurdling debuts at Stratford a fortnight ago as he did not leave the rear of the field until passing tailed off rivals after the race had finished as a contest. His cause was hindered by the hurdles he encountered early on and while he can not be blamed for getting badly baulked on landing at the first, his being very steady and close at the second, and big and ungainly at the third, were his own doing. The yard's charges typically improve with experience and while Sir Taweel accomplished very little first time, he would not be a forlorn hope just yet. Nevertheless, although he can be expected to at least improve from his debut, the yard is not in a good vein of form at the moment and any improvement would have to be quite dramatic in order to challenge the principals here.

    Tara Iti chg Gary Moore f6-1-0 (62) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
    Sixties Icon (Sir Percy){9-c}(0.78) 3/1 Prince Of India 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Taunton 1998
    Despite fetching just 17,500 guineas at the Tattersalls online sale back in May, Tara Iti has a profile which arguably exceeds the price tag. His sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winners to runners rate of 19.05%, with 55.56% of his juveniles improving for the switch in codes, and his progeny has a healthy strike rate of 16.44% between June and December. Gary Moore also has a compelling record in the sphere with a winner/runner rate of 33.82%, an above-average improvement rate of 47.11%, and a strike rate at Fontwell of 27.91% with three scoring in this particular contest. One from six for Ed Dunlop on the flat, Tara Iti's sole win came in a heavy ground mile nursery at Leicester off a mark of 60. He had not quite built on that performance on his first two outings this term and while he was supported ahead of his hurdling debut at Newton Abbot in early July, he was most disappointing on that occasion. Usually awkward on the flat, he was already agitated prior to the off and his being held up from the start further compounded his fate. Refusing to settle and further lit up in the early stages, Tara Iti was badly baulked at the first and almost unseated at the second. From there, he was never travelling with any ease or jumping with any fluency. Getting detached after the first in the back, he was pulled up before the straight. It later emerged that he burst a blood vessel, although Tara Iti looked destined for a poor performance from the outset. Tara Iti was last seen at Brighton a month ago where, stepping up to ten furlongs, he spent most of the contest trying to detach his riders arms from their sockets. He would finish last of six, but was beaten by less than three lengths which at least indicated a return to form. Gary Moore has a habit of winning juvenile hurdles at Fontwell and his charges can often exceed market expectations. Tara Iti is certainly capable of running a big race although his debut performance and general temperament would still be matters of concern.

    Ramure bf Stuart Edmunds j3-0-0 (57.0 - 125.4) 90 96
    Maresca Sorrento (Blue Bresil){9-c}(0.33) 2/1 Ocean's Wind 1st 3900m 4yo hurdle, Saint Malo 2016
    https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ramure
    The first of this season's juvenile hurdlers imported from France is the thrice raced maiden Ramure. She made her racecourse bow on the first of June in Compiegne’s Prix du Grand Maitre – a debutant contest won in the past by the likes of Analifet, Triana du Berlais and Cicalina. Sent off the outsider of the field, Ramure jumped reasonably well, but was firmly beaten when getting brought down at the penultimate flight. Nine days later, she reappeared at Dieppe where she jumped well enough in a prominent position, but weakened tamely on leaving the back stretch and ultimately finished tailed off. Taking a step up in class on her return to Compiegne, she put up another mostly sound round of hurdling and was still in a fighting position entering the straight before losing touch on the approach to the last, finishing just over eighteen lengths behind the winner. Patrice Lenogue has been responsible for three juveniles in the UK thus far with a winner coming in the form of David Pipe’s €140,000 Hexham hero Great Tempo. Sire Maresca Sorrento has yet to have a winner from six juveniles outside of France, but he has gotten his fair share of winning juveniles in his native country. The dam failed to win over jumps but is a sibling of a Saint Malo winner, and top class sorts in Tamarindo (3/1), Sun Storm (3/1) and Djakadam (3/2) descend from the third dam. The most intriguing part of Ramure’s profile is her joining Stuart Edmunds, whose winner to runner rate of 50% in the division is bettered only by Henderson, Mullins and Nicholls. Ramure’s performances currently warrant a mark not exceeding the high 90s which is a far cry from the 125 suggested by her valeur. All the same, she will be her underrated trainer’s first recruit from the French jumping circuit and as he has already had a runner-up in the sphere this term, it will be interesting to see what he can achieve with this mostly fluent hurdler.

    The Yellow Mini bf Michael Wigham f14-0-1 (45) 53
    Cannock Chase (Primo Valentino){22-d}(1.00) 2/2 Arakhan 1st 2m4f Novices' Hurdle, Aintree 2019
    Canadian International winner Cannock Chase has yet to have a runner over jumps. His sire, Lemon Drop Kid, has a decent winner to runner rate of 38.46% in the sphere and with a DI of 0.82 and a height of 16.1hh, Cannock Chase has reasonable credentials for the sphere. His first juvenile hurdler is set to be The Yellow Mini who has had fourteen starts on the flat without a win to her name. Racing under the care of Polly Gundry until late July, The Yellow Mini ran her best race four outings ago when finishing three quarters of a length second in a Bath handicap off 45. She was 80/1 that day and no effort either side has matched that performance. The damline has plenty who have tried hurdling, although only Arakhan (2/2) and Empire Park (3/1) were able to score in the discipline. Michael Wigham has had two winning juveniles from fourteen, but has not participated in the sphere since November 2016 and is without any jumps winner since May 2018.

    tl;dr
    Kinghenrytheninth - First hurdles runner for new trainer. Damline has hints of promise but poor flat form and tendency to pull set a difficult task.

    Oneonechop - Flat winner in France who jumps well and has good form at Newton Abbot. However, has been found out by the trip at Stratford and is uncertain to fully see out this contest.

    Risky Business - His being by Mastercraftsman is the only positive in his profile. His flat form is poor and he jumped too cautiously when well beaten on his hurdles bow.

    Sir Taweel - Fair winner on flat. Trainer does well in sphere and there are good jumpers on the damline. Accomplished little on his hurdling debut and while he can improve, yard is not in good form.

    Tara Iti - Good profile for the sphere and flat form is respectable in this company. Trainer does well at the venue but Tara Iti disappointed on hurdling debut and temperament remains a large concern.

    Ramure - Unplaced in three outings over hurdles in France. Mostly a fluent jumper, form is still credible in the context of this race and trainer has a good record in the sphere.

    The Yellow Mini - Fourteen race maiden on the flat with rating of 45. Feasible prospects on breeding and trainer has been capable in past, although not to the to offset the negatives in the profile.

    Strong prospects
    1. Ramure
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Oneonechop
    3. Tara Iti
    Feasible prospects
    4. Sir Taweel
    Moderate prospects
    5. Kinghenrytheninth
    Negligible prospects
    6. The Yellow Mini
    7. Risky Business

  26. #40
    Senior Member Bachelors Hall's Avatar
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    Perth

    Scotland's first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place tomorrow and is the resurrection of a contest that was held at Perth three times between 2014 and 2016. The field sizes for those editions were three, three and five; although while only five are set to face the starter here, there are only two races on the card with a larger number of runners. Juvenile hurdles overlooked by Scone Palace are generally modest affairs with their average winners' seasonal RPR of 110.77 being the eleventh lowest in the country. The Wallace Line, who won this race in 2014, was the best graduate from this contest - going on to finish third in the Finale. Ski Sunday and Orsippus are other decent juveniles to have ran here before the winter. This year's renewal looks fairly ordinary but it should be competitive as the placed hurdles form is of a respectable standard and the newcomers have flat ratings sufficient to be capable at this level. A flat, right handed circuit, Perth's easy configuration and generally firmer ground contribute to higher DIs than average of 1.50 median, and 1.58 mean. The clear round rate of 98.12% is the fifth highest in Britain and is also one of the kinder tracks for hurdling newcomers. The going is currently good with only slim prospects of rainfall during the morning.

    Boundsy Boy bg Oliver Greenall f3-0-0 (60) 62 j3-0-2 (100) 85 91
    Awtaad (Diktat){21-a}(1.25) 2/1 Majestic Sun 6th 2m Novices' Handicap Hurdle (97), Plumpton 2015
    Fetching just 1,500 guineas when leaving Richard Fahey for Oliver Greenall last Autumn, Boundsy Boy ran with credit when an eleven length second to Koi Dodville at Aintree after a break of 309 days. His jumping had been acceptable and though the form is moderate, he was entitled to improve for his first outing after a long absence and surgeries to his wind and tackle. This is just what he did a month later at Stratford. Sent straight into the lead from flagfall, Boundsy Boy got in quite close to the first, but though he was by no means slick, he was competent enough from there until the penultimate flight where he was low and untidy. Joined at the top of the straight, he was unable to regain the lead despite having the rail to help. Nevertheless, he did not capitulate without a fight. His official mark of 103 looked harsh ahead of his handicap debut at Bangor twelve days ago and surrounded by more mature horses, his jumping also suffered as he was less nimble and made a couple of careless errors. Racing in the rear, he made some headway along the back, but made no impression from three out and would finish thirty-one lengths behind the winner. Boundsy Boy should appreciate this return to juvenile company and with his Stratford form being just about the strongest on offer over hurdles, he can give a good account of himself.

    Don't Look Back grg Lucinda Russell f7-0-1 (64) 69
    Oasis Dream (Kirkwall){14-c}(1.91) 2/1 Sleepy Hollow 5th Mersey Novices' Hurdle 2010
    Local-ish trainer Lucinda Russell does get winning juveniles and although her overall record is just below average, half of her winners did so first time out. Her first runner in the sphere for this campaign is Don't Look Back who left Richard Hughes for 11,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Though he failed to score in seven outings, Don't Look Back has run consistently and his rating of 64 is a fair reflection of his ability. However, he has been awkward under pressure and of Richard Hughes's nine former inmates in the sphere, none have won or even improved on their flat exploits. Oasis Dream has one of the poorest records in the division with a winner runner rate of 6.67%, and an improvement rate of just 5.26%. The damline is more promising however as uncle Sleepy Hollow was a good novice hurdler and cousin Fiveandtwenty was a useful juvenile hurdler last term. Furthermore, Don't Look Back is a full brother to Gale Force Ten whose record as a sire in this sphere is three winners from eight with an improvement rate of 80%. The overall profile of Don't Look Back is something quite akin to the curate's egg as although there is enough merit to make him an interesting recruit, there are a couple of elements which destabilise his case in this company.

    Moneykenny grg Olly Murphy f5-1-1 (65) 70 j2-0-1 (-) 87 90
    Kendargent (Kheleyf){14-c}(1.22) 2/1 Blinka Me 92 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (82), Sedgefield 2012
    After leaving Andrew Balding for 26,000 guineas at the Tattersalls May sale, Moneykenny looked to have solid prospects ahead of his hurdling debut at Newton Abbot in early July. A 65 rated winner on the flat, his breeding and training connections suggested he should at least match his flat ability in time. However, he was very keen in the early stages and jumped the first with little fluency - wandering on the approach and jumping big and markedly to his right. Though his jumping would settle down over the next couple, he was still more than a handful for Aidan Coleman, keeping a keen grip passing the stands. Nevertheless, he still had enough energy to move into the lead turning for home and traded as low as 1.1 in-running. However, he landed steeply at the penultimate flight and got in very tight at the last before relinquishing the lead near the finish. Returning to the venue a fortnight later, he was weighted to come out on top. However, despite opening in the ring at 11/10, he drifted out to 5/2 and ran accordingly. Racing in touch on the inside, he was cautious over the first two and never really settled into a solid rhythm. While he was slightly baulked on landing at the penultimate flight, his race was already run by that stage. There was no explanation offered for this performance. He makes his return after a seven week absence but with his yard landing a double earlier in the week, his ability gives him some chance. Although given that he is prone to inconsistency, it remains to be seen if he is able to run to his potential.

    New Reality bg Nigel Hawke f6-1-0 (81) 86
    New Approach (Teofilo){5-f}(0.60) 2/1 Novis Adventus 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (119), Worcester 2018
    The passage between the yards of Jim Bolger and Nigel Hawke was covered earlier in the week when Boulette ran at Worcester. While Nigel Hawke's record in the sphere is respectable in and of itself, it becomes quite impressive when taking former Bolger horses in isolation. Five from eight such horses had been winners prior to Wednesday and Boulette came very close to making it six from nine when let down by a lack of experience. The latest animal cut from this cloth is New Reality who, with a flat mark of 81, is also the highest rated of this particular class. After failing to breach the front nine in a couple of outings last November, New Reality finished a respectable sixth on his return at Cork in first time tongue tie. He broke his duck next time when winning a Tipperary maiden over an extended twelve furlongs on yielding ground. Tracking the leader from the outset, he was getting shoved along with three furlongs left to race. Nevertheless, despite looking green under pressure, he stuck to his task well and managed to get his head in front in the shadow of the post. Four subsequent winners have since come out of that contest and the form took a large boost when the runner-up had six future winners behind when winning a Navan maiden by eleven lengths. New Reality stepped down in trip by a couple of furlongs at Naas next time and though not disgraced in finishing a five length fourth to Benaud, he did find himself rather flat footed. He was last seen in the Ulster Derby back in June where he ran no kind of race on the good ground and finished detached. Sire New Approach has a strong record in the division with a winner to runner rate of 38.10%, and cousin Novis Adventus (also by New Approach) was a useful handicap hurdler. New Reality has much the strongest form from the flat and while the yard's runners typically improve with experience, this did not prevent Boulette from running a fine race the other day and Nigel Hawke's record with juveniles at Perth stands at two winners from three. However, even if his performance in the Ulster Derby is ignored, New Reality will almost certainly need a much sterner test than is offered tomorrow before reaching his potential in this sphere.

    Aliomaana chf Milton Harris f5-0-2 (74) 75 j1-0-1 (-) 87 86
    Raven's Pass (Sea The Stars){8-f}(1.29) 2/1 Celestial Force 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (120), Newton Abbot 2021
    Though winless after five outings for John Gosden, Aliomaana's rating of 74 is in the eightieth percentile for flat recruits in the division. She twice managed to grab second in a pair of all-weather maidens over ten furlongs at Wolverhampton and Chelmsford. At the former, she was no match for subsequent Oaks fourth Save A Forest, but did grab her second from a subsequent winner and was behind another subsequent winner in Percy's Pride at Chelmsford. That would be her last start for John Gosden before getting knocked down for 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. While former residents of Clarehaven Stables seldom maintain their flat form between codes, Milton Harris was able to get Pyramid Place to win three times last season and Aliomaana looked another promising recruit when third at Stratford last week. Available at 33/1 in the morning, she was eventually backed down to 12/1 by the off and was the only horse to seriously pursue the winner from the outset. Though fairly keen in the early stages, she settled better going on the second circuit. The gap between herself and the leader fluctuated and while she still held second turning into the straight, she had little left and ultimately had to settle for a thirteen length third. Aliomaana did make a few minor errors - namely hopping through some of the earlier jumps, slightly skewing over the fifth and, when probably tired, steadying at the last where she went to her left. Notwithstanding, it was a pleasing debut for the most part and while her tiring late on meant she ran below her flat form, there was enough to build on to suggest she can be more competitive in this discipline - particularly with her sex allowance here.

    tl;dr
    Boundsy Boy - Cheap purchase but ran creditably on his first two starts over hurdles. Failed to run to form in Bangor handicap last time but should appreciate the return to novice company.

    Don't Look Back - Consistent maiden on the flat but has raced awkwardly. Sire has poor record although there are a couple of good novice hurdlers on the damline. Patchy profile overall.

    Moneykenny - Winner on the flat and not without promise on hurdling debut. Disappointed when last seen seven weeks ago, lacks consistency and has a suspect temperament.

    New Reality - Much the strongest flat form and represents interesting connections. However, will almost certainly need a much sterner test in order to be seen to best effect.

    Aliomaana - Placed on flat for John Gosden and ran with promise on hurdles debut at Stratford last week. Tired late on but likely to improve and comes out well at the weights.

    Strong prospects
    1. Aliomaana
    Reasonable prospects
    2. New Reality
    3. Boundsy Boy
    Feasible/Moderate prospects
    4. Don't Look Back
    5. Moneykenny

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