Alrighty. Last week was a bit of a clusterfunk, but by the grace of dog, I have would up in a homeless shelter which is, frankly, a fantastic relief. In one of life's ironies, despite being technically homeless, this place with a roof, door and relative stability already feels more like a home than anywhere else I have stayed for the past few years. In another one of life's ironies, while at Durham I was very much "ghetto as f***" on account of my upbringing and past, it tickles me that I am now in danger of being a conspicuously "Durham twat". Still, with this sense of grounding comes a foundation on which to build other areas of my life and most importantly, the ability to put more concentration into this absurd little project. Hurrah! So yeah, let's get right back up to date with the reviews and preview.
STRATFORD 29th July
Preview review
The first three came from the first four in the prospects lists. The winner was second on the list and while his tendency to pull hard was not enough to prevent success, it noted in the preview. The underperformance of Crane was also highlighted in the preview. The gap between Fred Bear and Oneonechop was wider than it should have been - particularly as the latter's stamina was still an unresolved concern. Given that Stratford's more testing nature was also mentioned, this matter should have been given more weight. Notwithstanding, worse previews have been written.
Race review
The hurdles form brought into this contest was nothing out of the ordinary. Nevertheless, there were two decently rated recruits from the flat, albeit with patchy profiles, representing top yards that had the potential to be comparatively useful types if making the switch to their new vocation. In the event, one of these ran out a comfortable winner despite struggling to settle for much of the contest. According to RP, the winning time was said to be 5.71 seconds slower than that recorded in the mares' handicap hurdle on the same card. However, as the early pace was comparable and the run-in was nearly a second quicker in the juvenile hurdle, this provoked an independent assessment using the pause key and a stopwatch. As it transpires, Timeform's time - which had the handicap ran in a time 1.20 seconds quicker - is much more likely to be accurate. Consequently, taking into account the weights carried along with WFA, the pace set was a reasonable one and the winning time one of the more respectable ones seen to date this term. The overall quality of jumping was not great, and the first two each raced freely. Nevertheless, they had every right to fill those positions on paper and with distances of seven and nineteen lengths splitting the first three, the form would still have a solid shape.
Caramelised was the first juvenile hurdler of the season for Alan King and, on BHA figures, the highest rated recruit seen to date. There was a concern about an inability to settle which manifested in the contest itself as he pulled hard up to the point he was sent for home. Held up in touch from the outset, he moved to track the leaders going out onto the second circuit and travelled nicely to challenge for the lead entering the straight. Shaken up to take a length advantage on the approach to the last, it took no more than a hands and heels drive to quickly extend his lead and cross the line seven lengths to the good. Caramelised posted a safe round of jumping without being consistently fluent as he was slightly skewed at the first, big over the second, steep at the third, reached at the sixth and, while it did not cost him momentum, rather hopped over the final flight. Caramelised will need to settle better if he is to go up in grade, and Alan King will almost certainly have stronger types in any case. Nevertheless, this was a pleasing debut performance overall and is probably the strongest seen to date. Should his jumping improve with experience, he can collect a few more prizes while the pool is still shallow. 105
Fred Bear had failed to get within ten lengths of the winner in four flat outings. Nevertheless, his pedigree and connections suggested better could come over hurdles and with two promising efforts at Newton Abbot under his belt, he began the race as 9/4 favourite from a morning show of 7/2. Sent straight into the lead from flagfall, Fred Bear raced freely for much of the contest, and while his hurdling improved between his first two outings, he was not quite so clean here. Along with steadying at a few hurdles, he also got in close to the first, fourth and sixth as well as having a slight tendency to wander on the approach. These flaws were not massively detrimental to his performance and though he conceded the lead shortly after the turn for home, proving no match for the winner, he still had upwards of nineteen lengths in hand over the remainder. This marks a new career best and although his official mark of 105 is harsh based on his actual accomplishments, he can continue to hold his own at this level. 96
Oneonechop was a six time winner in France and his equivalent rating of 79 puts him well above the typical recruit for the time of year (although it is roughly par for French imports). He had faded tamely on his British/hurdling debut at this venue eighteen days earlier. However, he finished with much more purpose and was arguably worried out of a better position when third at Newton Abbot just behind Fred Bear. Cheekpieces were applied for his return to Stratford and he was steady in the market throughout the day. His previous efforts over hurdles have been marked by respectable jumping and apart from hopping over the first and getting steady and somewhat close at the third and fourth, his round was solid enough once again. Tracking the leader from the outset, he was fairly free in the early stages but not enough to warrant concern. However, he began to come under pressure going over the hill before the home turn and had lost his position by the time he reached the straight. Oneonechop was able to hold on for third, but it can be said with confidence that his stamina limitations were exposed here. While he has the ability to win a race over hurdles, it would have to come in the sharpest of circumstances. 77
Dark Motive finished her stint with Ralph Beckett a 58 rated six race maiden. Being a daughter of Motivator from the family of Prospect Wells, her pedigree warranted some respect and on the evidence of her flat career, stamina was assured. Racing in midfield, she made numerous errors during the contest and did not have the pace to get involved. Ultimately beaten twenty-seven lengths, if Dark Motive is to become competitive in the sphere, it is more likely to be further down the road than any time soon. 69
Nazwa shaped with promise on his sole flat outing for David Simcock back in February. However, while there are decent sorts on the damline, the sire has yet to taste success in the sphere and his capable trainer is usually quiet around this time of year. Easy to back in the market, Nazwa raced mostly in the rear making only minor headway on the approach to the home turn. He made several novicey errors and while he is entitled to come on for the outing, more will be needed in the short term. 68
Crane was a winner on the flat as a two-year-old and joined a leading trainer in Nicky Henderson for his new hurdling career. After drifting from 9/4 to 3/1 in the morning, Crane was trimmed back into 11/4 to start the race as second favourite. However, while he was settled reasonably well and was in a good position behind the leaders, he was let down quite considerably by his jumping. Big and slow to get away from the first, he was slightly close to the second, steady and close at the third, and tight over the next three - the sixth he rather hopped over. Under pressure and losing ground from thereon, he was slow over the last and finished the race nearly forty lengths behind the winner. Poor jumping contributed to his undoing, although his stamina is also up for question and his pedigree did not give great cause for optimism beforehand in any case. His representing Nicky Henderson will keep him of interest over the coming weeks and months. However, it can be noted that none of the trainer's eight juveniles who finished outside of the front five first time out was able to score at the second time of asking. 66
Sentilly was twice beaten by over thirty lengths on the flat during the winter and her hurdles campaign has started no better. Always towards the rear, her jumping was novicey throughout and she jumped the last tired as she was beaten by fifty-one lengths. 46
Vamoos pulled up on his debut over this course and distance eighteen days earlier. Keen from the outset, he jumped poorly before veering left and unshipping Tom Bellamy at the third. He continued to jump in such a fashion while running loose and has thus far, shown no aptitude for the discipline. 0
MARKET RASEN 1st August
Preview review
I was in the process of doing the preview, had the spreadsheet and pedigrees ready and was about to write out the profiles when I was abruptly evicted. The winner would most probably have been given the strong prospects as his hurdles form was the strongest and the expected improvement left him with something in hand over the newcomers. A market check would have been suggested for the McCain debutant as the yard has already sent out a winning unraced juvenile this term. The Bravest had chances on his two-year-old form but had beaten just one of his twelve rivals this year. The ratings given in previous previews would have gained another one for the win column and incidentally, going by the amount of above average figures for trainers, sires, damsires, families and the damsires' records as sires, the field finished in the precise order - although the clues for the £46.20 trifecta would not have mentioned which makes it a moot point. Notwithstanding, the processes used throughout the ongoing assessments would not have warranted any revisiting on the basis this result.
Race review
Evaluating this race is not an entirely straightforward as the times on the card throw a spanner in the works. Going off a strict and rigid comparison with the maiden hurdle held half an hour later, Langafel's winning time was almost three seconds quicker which roughly equates to fifteen lengths. The runner-up in the maiden was beaten a length and a half, carried a pound less than Langafel and was rated 110. 110 + 15 + 1 + 15 (weight for age) gives Langafel a performance rating of 141. This is patently ludicrous and along with the early pace being quicker in the juvenile hurdle, the standard time was also the second slowest over obstacles on the card. Going by visual indicators, most of the field settled quite well although the overall quality of jumping left plenty to be desired - particularly from the 80/1 shot who was beaten less than nine lengths in third. In all, the race was probably not of a high standard and while the front two are respectable sorts, the form may not be especially strong or reliable.
Langafel failed to reach the frame in five attempts on the flat and ended his initial spell under that code with a rating of 55. Nevertheless, this son of Fast Company is with a trainer who does well with juveniles and Langafel made a winning debut over hurdles at Newton Abbot forty-one days earlier. He had been taken out of a race at that venue two weeks prior to this race on account of the good-to-firm ground, but while 'firm' appeared in the description here, he was still allowed to take his chance. Starting the day at 4/7, he drifted out to evens before being clipped in to 10/11 at the off. In contrast to Newton Abbot where he raced keenly and made errors at each flight, Langafel settled much better here, tracking the free-running leader while maintaining his own sensible tempo. His hurdling was also much neater by comparison, his flaws being getting tight and skewing over the first, giving a bit of air at the third, going through the top of the fifth and hitting the penultimate flight. Langafel challenged the leader at the three furlong marker and as his rival faded, he carried a two length lead along the straight which was only marginally eroded by the green runner-up. Langafel did not achieve anything out of the ordinary here, but he continues to improve and in the right race and potentially with softer ground, he could be up to defying a double penalty. 99
Corporal Jones, a £23,000 purchase at last year's Tattersalls Ireland Breeze Up, came into this race without any racecourse experience. His profile was not without substance as War Command has a couple of winners in the sphere, his dam was a winning hurdler, his half-brother won a juvenile hurdle and useful sorts Four Sox (3/1), Joke Dancer (3/1) and Singapore Belle (4/1) appear on the damline (as does Asterion Forlonge at 5/4). His trainer has already sent out a winning debutant juvenile and while not a plunge exactly , Corporal Jones was backed from a morning 7/2 to a steady in-ring 11/4. Understandably, for a debutant, Corporal Jones showed signs of greenness, although it was more conspicuous than alarming. He raced keenly while tracking the leaders in the early stages, but had managed to settle better along the back stretch. His jumping was novicey and he made errors of one minor fashion or another at most flights. He was able to follow the winner when he made his move at the distance, but did not have enough to make any real inroads until the final fifty yards where the race was already put to bed. All told, it was a respectable debut effort and though the performance merely places him in the top third of juveniles seen this far, the expected improvement would make him a threat in ordinary company. 91
Subtle Innuendo achieved very little in two starts over seven furlongs at Ayr and Newcastle last year, and was making his return after a near three hundred day layoff. There was no confidence behind him in the markets, although there were hints of promise in his pedigree as he is bred to get the trip, his sire and damsire have solid records in the sphere, and the damline contains winning handicapper War Party (2/1) and 1982 French Champion Hurdler World Citizen (4/1). Held up towards the rear, Subtle Innuendo was somewhat fresh in the early stages, although his jumping gave cause for greater concern. After being baulked on landing at the first, he was steady before hitting the second, slow over the next two, was untidy when hitting the penultimate flight and not much cleaner over the last. While he did not look like posing a threat, he was still in there pitching in the straight, but his errors allowed the front pair to leave him behind. Subtle Innuendo's profile suggests he should be suited by the discipline and although he has no designs on greatness, he could be competitive in moderate company should he learn from this experience. 85
The Bravest began the year with a rating of 71 which came courtesy of a narrow second in a Pontefract nursery during the Autumn. He failed to show on his reappearance but his sixth of seven three weeks earlier was at least a step in the right direction. A son of Jukebox Jury (four winning juveniles from nine prior to this race) and a nephew of the useful Townshend, The Bravest represented a yard with a solid record in the sphere and was the best backed horse in the race - starting at 16/5 having been available at 7/1 during the morning. However, his jumping was very poor in the early stages as he skewed quite erratically over the first four flights. His jumping marginally improved from there and after leaving the back in last position, he made some headway on the home turn. However, was unable to maintain his progress and was never dangerous. Beaten thirteen lengths in the end, The Bravest is probably capable of showing more - possibly when his yard is in better form - although he may benefit from a sterner test of stamina. 79
Rakish Paddy tore away on his hurdles debut over this course and distance in mid-June, and after finishing last at Chepstow in the interim, did the same again here. Similar to first time out, his jumping was less than fluent. While he was sound enough over the first two, he skewed and stumbled at the third, hit the fourth, was untidy at the fifth, hit the sixth, and having lost his position turning for home, was steady before hopping through the last. If nothing else, Rakish Paddy does have a measure of pace, but while there are stayers on the distaff side of his pedigree, his sire is not a stamina influence. In any event, he will need to jump and settle better before he threatens at any trip. 77
No Escape was beaten ten lengths at Kempton last September on her only previous racecourse appearance. Though her trainer has had a winner in the sphere, there was little enthusiasm to be had about the pedigree. Racing in a first time hood, No Escape jumped poorly in the rear and was receiving reminders as early as the second. While she was still just about in touch turning for home, she eventually finished nearly fifty lengths behind the winner. 37
ROSCOMMON 3rd August
Preview review
No preview was written and I did not really get a chance to look at the race beforehand. Eternal Presence probably had the most solid profile on paper. The case for Whyzzat largely revolved around his trainer's decent clear round rate and his consistent jumping had a significant part to play in his victory. Nevertheless, hindsight without foresight with which to compare is a fairly empty endeavour and the way the race unfolded further compounds the futility.
Race review
With the exception of 2006 when Naas took the honours, Roscommon has been the first port of call for Ireland's juvenile hurdlers this century. Last year's runner-up Jeff Kidder was probably the most accomplished participant, with Won In The Dark and Rashaan also acquitting themselves well. The aforementioned are, by and large, the exceptions and the contests impact on the future is broadly scant with the average winner's median seasonal best RPR being just 113. This year's sixteen runner line up had a similar composition to previous renewals. However, paying homage to the Tour de France's "allez opi-omi lady", Alice Kitty radically changed the complexion of the race by taking out half of the field at the first - including two of the four who started at less than 10/1. Mercifully and rather surprisingly, it appears that the horses emerged without any serious damage, with Stand Staunch getting a bloody nose, and the culprit Alice Kitty being in receipt of various bumps and bruises for her troubles. Those who remained went a decent gallop and while a few were lit up by the carnage, most settled quite well. However, the quality of jumping was not of a good standard and there was further drama when the third favourite, yet to be asked a question, was knocked off her feet at the turn for home by a loose horse, impeding the third placed finisher in the process. The winner jumped well and likely had the measure of the runner-up who made a tremendous blunder on the first circuit. Beyond this however, it is difficult to afford much substance or stability to the overall standard of form.
Whyzzat cost 160,000 guineas as a yearling, but having failed to face the starter for George Scott, was sold to current connections for 9,000 guineas at last year's Tattersalls July Sale. While he reached the frame on three occasions, he failed to win during his sixteen race flat career, including in claiming company. Though initially rated 75 after his first three outings as a two-year-old, he went into this contest with a rating of 58. Damsire Desert Prince has a credible record in the sphere, but while Dark Angel does get his winners, his overall record is below average and there is little on Whyzzat's damline beyond being a nephew of maiden hurdle winner Under Oath. Denis Gerard Hogan has a modest winner to runner rate of 11.11%, and only one first time scorer to his name. Nevertheless, he has a strong clear round rate of 98.36% and none of his juveniles have fallen or unseated first time out. Accordingly, Whyzzat posted a good and consistent round of jumping with his only flaw coming at the last where he was very slightly steady and clipped the top of the flight. Prominent from the outset, he tucked in behind the leaders and travelling strongly, jumped into a share of the lead at three out. Ridden into a lead of a length after the penultimate flight, he opened the gap to the best part of four lengths which he would maintain to the line. Whyzzat was seemingly exposed on the flat, but he clearly has the aptitude for this game and probably ran close to his flat best first time out. His stamina has not always looked assured and it remains to be seen if he can stand up to sterner challenges. Nevertheless, there were more positives than negatives to take from this performance and it will be interesting to see if he can confirm this form against a more substantial field. 105
Eternal Presence never bettered his debut third at Killarney last August in five subsequent outings, but shaped better than his form figures suggested in a series of handicaps this term. While the only pedigree clue on the damline is the presence of fair French chaser Grapelli at 3/1, Mastercraftsman and Montjeu are both positive influences as sire and damsire respectively. Eternal Presence was not subject to the same degree of support as his stablemate, but was still sent off a steady 10/3 favourite. Left disputing the lead in the early stages, he took up the initiative after the last in the back and travelled strongly into the straight, trading as low as 1.31 in-running. However, he was unable to resist the winner's challenge and he eventually split first and third by similar margins of just under four lengths. Though he was close to the first and was steady when clipping the second, Eternal Presence jumped reasonably well save for an almighty blunder at the fifth where JJ Slevin did well to maintain the partnership. Establishing the impact of this error on his ultimate performance would be guesswork at this juncture. The form did not quite match what he has shown on the flat, but there was enough in this effort to suggest he can go on from here. 101
Project Two showed a modicum of promise on his two starts at Dundalk last year, but was completely tailed off on his first couple of outings this term and subsequently only hinted at form in a pair of modest handicaps. Breeding clues were threadbare as he was the first juvenile hurdler for sire Belardo, himself the first son of Lope de Vega to have such a runner, and the closest reasonable hurdling relative was Paseo at 3/2. Edward Harty has had his fair share of winners in the sphere, although the yard has not been firing on all cylinders as of late. Project Two, held up in touch for most of the race, began to get outpaced leaving the back and was further impeded by the hapless Helvic Princess. Nevertheless, while he never looked dangerous, he was able to plug on for third, finishing fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. This unexpected performance can not be rationalised by exceptional jumping either as although his hurdling was not terrible, he skewed when hopping over the second, got in close to the fourth, again at four our, hopped the next and got in tight when hopping through the last. Given his questionable overall profile, time will have to be the judge whether this performance was an anomaly. 98
Television only made her racecourse debut at the end of May and she finished closer to last than first in a trio of maiden contests. Her official mark of 60, while open for debate, was the fourth highest brought into this contest. The second juvenile hurdler for her trainer, and first for sire Estidhkaar (Dark Angel), Televisions only pedigree clue, apart from being 5/4 with Berjou, is that her fourth dam finished fifth in an Auteuil claimer in 1990. Starting in the rear, Television moved quickly through the field but was still caught up in the first flight drama. Though emerging relatively unscathed, her confidence was affected as she was steady at most of her remaining flights. Televison never made any further progress in the race, and passed only the fading Whipsaw on the run-in to finish twenty-two lengths behind the winner. 76
Whipsaw's best flat effort was a fifth placed finish in a seven furlong Cork handicap off 65 back in April. While he is a cousin of Calidus Mirabilis, who was fourth in this race last year, the Camacho x Oasis Dream cross is not conducive to stamina. Racing prominently from the outset, Whipsaw was lit up in the early stages and also had a habit of wandering into his flights. He lost his lead going out onto the second circuit and faded badly after losing his position on the home turn. Even without the jumping errors, any optimism for the future would be tempered by his apparent lack of stamina. 81
Grey Angel was one of two runners for Noel Meade, and an unfancied, longer priced of the pair. Three outings as a two-year-old saw her allotted a rating of 51 and she was last seen refusing to enter the stalls ahead of her intended reappearance at Cork back in May. Suffering considerable inconvenience at the first flight melee, Grey Angel spent the race bringing up the rear. She skewed over the second and third, wandered at the fourth and was slow over the fifth. Though she jumped better from there, she made no impression on the contest. She can largely be forgiven this outing, although there is still little in her profile that would make her of particular interest going forward. 53
Wicklow Silver capped six consecutive duck eggs with a twenty-one length eighth of eight on his latest outing in a twelve furlong Down Royal handicap. An Estidhkaar x Johannesburg cross with no jumpers on the damline, the only saving grace in his profile is that one of his trainer's six juveniles was a winner. Opening at 40/1 and drifting to 200/1 before halving in price at the off, Wicklow Silver rather missed the first flight of his own volition, but somehow managed to keep upright while scuttering over the bodies. Having jumped left at the second, he hurdled well enough before getting close to the seventh. While not looking an obvious danger, Wicklow Silver had yet to be asked a real question or lose any ground when very badly hampered by the slip of Helvic Princess. This is not to say that he would have gone on to accomplish anything in the race, but it is at least feasible that he can achieve more hurdles than on the flat - little though that might be. 24
Helvic Princess came into this as a nine race maiden on the flat, but she had thrice reached the frame in that sphere. Finishing third at this venue on her debut last June, she also ran creditably in a pair of ten furlong handicaps in the Spring - at Navan on heavy off 55, and at Cork on good off 57. However, Helvic Princess has been anything but model of consistency and she finished twelfth on each of her latest two outings. Nevertheless, she was much the stronger fancy of Noel Meade's two runners, shortening from 8/1 to 9/2 in the morning, and again to 18/5 in the ring. Furthermore, while she is the first runner over hurdles for Marcel, and daughters of Iffraaj have yet to produce a winning juvenile, Helvic Princess is a niece of top chaser Kempes, and a distant relative of the brilliant Our Conor at 4/2. Narrowly avoiding the drama at the first, she travelled nicely in midfield and made her only error when trailing her hind legs through the fifth. She had yet to be asked a question and was in a decent position leaving the back, but after getting impeded by a loose horse, she lost her back legs and slipped on the bend. This mishap happened too far from the finish to confidently judge how she may have otherwise fared, and her lack of consistency on the flat would warrant a degree of caution when she reappears. Notwithstanding, it would be fair to describe her as unlucky on this occasion and it is hoped she will get the opportunity to demonstrate her ability over hurdles before too long. 0
Admiral Brown was unable to better seventh position, or finish closer than seven lengths to the winner in six flat outings, and he arrived here with a rating of just 48. Though a nephew of fairly useful chaser Pure Science and out of a Dalakhani mare, his pedigree is noting out of the ordinary. He started the shorter of the Henry De Bromhead pair, but his profile did not really warrant the 10/1 starting price. Setting off just behind the leaders, he was brought down at the first. 0
Bullock Park was making his first appearance of the year having achieved little in three outings as a two-year-old. Anjaal has managed a winner from five in the sphere and half-brother Saint Jerome was a useful juvenile hurdler in 2014. Ross O'Sullivan has had one winner from nine and Bullock Park was completely unfancied drifting from 40/1 to 100/1 at the off. He was pulling in the rear when brought down at the first. 0
Dies Its Eine failed to show on his sole flat outing in June, but while he is a nephew of the highly talented juvenile filly, Unaccompanied, he was friendless in the ring going from 40/1 to 150/1. Setting off in a prominent position, he blundered at the first before getting brought down a split second later. He continued to gallop loose although while not averse to jumping more hurdles, he wasn't particularly fluent without his rider. 0
Guest was tailed off on his sole start as a two-year-old, and since left Ken Condon to join a yard that is yet to have a winner in the sphere from two. Acclamation and Montjeu are just on the lower side of average for sires and damsires, and modest handicap winner Beaumont's Party appears at 3/1 on the damline. Avalable at 25/1 in the morning, but starting at 150/1, Guest was in the rear when steady at the first and having to take evasive action to avoid the fallers. He was very slow at the next and was detached from there before pulling up at halfway. 0
Stand Staunch, unraced stablemate of the runner-up, went out to 12/1 in the morning. Opening in the ring at 15/2, he was backed down to 4/1 at the off. Sire Camelot enjoyed a fine first season in the sphere, but while his numbers were down the past two seasons, his overall figures are still healthy. The damline is less compelling as it largely consists of sprinters with the nearest winning jumper being the selling class Amazing Sail at 3/1. Just about in mid division, Stand Staunch was subject to a dramatic hampering which saw him emerge with a broken nose. While the money beforehand may have suggested a good performance was anticipated, it remains to be seen if his first racecourse outing leaves an impression on his psyche. 0
Alice Kitty was the first hurdles runner for Bobby's Kitten, but is a niece of winning hurdler Kilburn and the hurdles placed Popmurphy. One of two flat winners in the field, she broke her duck at the fifth time of asking in a modest Ballinrobe over an extended nine furlongs back in June. Claimed afterwards for €5,000, she was initially set to join Philip Makin in Yorkshire but instead made her hurdling for Denise Foster. Her new handler has yet to saddle a winner in the sphere from thirteen horses, and those who leave Jessica Harrington tend not to improve for the switch in codes. This did not prevent her from starting the day as 5/2 favourite and while she opened at 4/1 in the ring, she was clipped in half a point by flagfall. Sent off in a prominent position, she hesitated on the approach to the first where failed to get high enough and took a crashing fall, bringing down much of the field in the process. Among the injuries she reportedly sustained were an overreach on the right pastern, a right shoulder contusion, a skin wound and blood at the left nostril. Naturally it is hoped that she is able to recover from this baptism of floor and hooves. Insofar as her prospects in the division are concerned, there is little optimism to be drawn from this outing. 0
Annwyl Angharad finished last on all four flat outings, never finishing nearer than nineteen lengths to the winner, and starting at upwards of 250/1 on her three starts this term. Sire Dylan Thomas has a 21.21% winners to runners rate, but her trainer has yet to taste success in the sphere from his three runners. Drifting from 80/1 to 200/1 here, he was in mid-division when getting too close to the first and unshipping Simon Torrens independently of the surrounding carnage. Annwyl Angharad ran out at the next when running loose. 0
Mystery Show, previously with Archie Watson, was the other participant with winning flat form and had the highest official rating in that sphere at 81. She landed a ten furlong Ascot handicap off 80 back in May on soft ground and while she ran flat on two of her three subsequent outings, her penultimate performance still looked good in the context of this field. Signs of poor temperament were beginning to emerge however, and she left the Watson yard for 12,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Her pedigree is not without merit as sire Showcasing has a healthy 27.27% winner to runner rate, and the dam is a half-sister to four winning jumpers including Dilshaan's Prize. John Joseph Hanlon does get winners, although his winner to runner rate of 13.04% is below average. Mystery Show went into 5/1 at one point in the morning, but was friendless in the ring, going from 15/2 to 16/1 at the off. Already showing some recalcitrance after the off, she drifted back through the field before getting very badly hampered at the first. She was pulled up shortly thereafter. 0
Preview - BALLINROBE 9th August
Following Roscommon's curtain raiser last Tuesday, Ballinrobe is set to host Ireland's second juvenile contest of the season at Monday's twilight meeting. Said to be a racecourse of amazing beauty (although having not seen it myself, I am obliged to say it has nothing on Hexham), Ballinrobe is a right handed track which climbs up the back with the closing stages going downhill. With average winning DIs of 1.12 median, 1.44 mean, it is not a particularly testing circuit although its clear round rate of 94.67% is one of the lower ones in Ireland. Good sorts Zanahiyr and Zoffanien trod its turf last term, while Clarcam finished second here on his debut in September 2013. The overall quality of juvenile hurdles at this venue is on the higher side of average, although those hosted during August (of which there have been three starting in 2017) have taken little winning with the average winner's seasonal RPR being 114.67, and average flat rating being 56.17. Tomorrow's contest looks rather par for the course with the experienced runners headed by Roscommon runner-up Eternal Presence, and the highest rated newcomer being a questionable stayer with a mark of 74. The going is currently described as good to yielding with some light showers forecast between now and post time.
Drogheda Dave bg Henry De Bromhead f7-0-0 (48) 59
Pearl Secret (Desert King){4-n}(1.80) 2/1 Mezzanisi 2nd 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (100), Exeter 2013
Making his debut in mid May, Drogeheda Dave has had six starts on the flat without breaching the first five. His first five attempts came at a mile or shorter, with his latest two coming over nine and eleven furlongs - finishing weakly on each occasion. Henry De Bromhead's credentials as a jumps trainer are not for debate, although his record with juveniles does fall below his usual standards with a winner to runner rate of 10.26%, and overall strike rate of 6.82%. The pedigree offers little respite as rookie sire Pearl Secret does not have the profile to succeed in the sphere, and a fair hurdler at 2/1 is the extent of jumpers on the damline before one reaches Young Poli at 5/2.
Eternal Presence grc Joseph Patrick O'Brien f6-0-1 (72) 75 j1-0-1 (-) 106 101
Mastercraftsman (Montjeu){8-c}(0.74) 3/1 Grapelli 4th 3800m 4yo Listed Chase, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2003
Though he never bettered his debut third at Killarney last August in five subsequent flat outings, Eternal Presence shaped better than his form figures suggested in a series of handicaps this year. While the only pedigree clue on the damline is the presence of fair French chaser Grapelli at 3/1, Mastercraftsman and Montjeu are both positive influences as sire and damsire respectively. Making his hurdling debut at Roscommon six days ago, Eternal Presence was not subject to the same degree of support as his stablemate, but was still sent off a steady 10/3 favourite. Left disputing the lead in the early stages, he took up the initiative after the last in the back and travelled strongly into the straight, trading as low as 1.31 in-running. However, he was unable to resist the winner's challenge and he eventually split first and third by similar margins of just under four lengths. Though he was close to the first and was steady when clipping the second, Eternal Presence jumped reasonably well save for an almighty blunder at the fifth where JJ Slevin did well to maintain the partnership. Establishing the impact of this error on his ultimate performance would be guesswork at this juncture. The form did not quite match what he has shown on the flat, but there was enough in that effort to suggest he can improve. Joseph O'Brien has a record of two wins and four placings from nine runners at the venue, and he also saddled the first two in the 2017 renewal of this contest. Furthermore, the yard has been in good form recently and his strike rate with juveniles goes from 10.29% first time out to 19.15% at the second time of asking. Setting the standard on form and having a substantial overall profile, the only real concern would be that he has yet to actually win a race.
Fake Plastic Trees bg A Oliver f4-0-0 (53) 52
Camacho (Street Sense){A29}(2.11) 0.5 Born To Ride 6th 3400m 3yo Hurdle, Clairefontaine 2020
Since starting his career in April, Fake Plastic Trees has demonstrated no better than moderate form on the flat, including last time when finishing eleventh of thirteen off 52 on his handicap debut over a mile on soft ground at Listowel. Trainer Andrew Oliver is winless from twenty-four attempts in the sphere and while Camacho has had winning juveniles, his winner runner rate of 13.64% is lower than average.
Grand Revival bg Denis Gerard Hogan f4-1-0 (62) 65
American Pharoah (Galileo){8-f}(1.00) 3/1 Arco Felice 4th 3m Handicap Hurdle (89), Ffos Las 2011
Formerly a resident at Ballydoyle, Grand Revival is bred to contest American classics as his sire won the Triple Crown and Classic, while his granddam won the Kentucky Oaks and the Belmont in 2007. This was not to be his destiny however and beginning his career with Denis Gerard Hogan in March, his first two outings saw him fail to best a single one of his thirty-two rivals, beaten a combined sixty-six lengths in the process. Fortunes would change however when stepping up to ten furlongs for a soft ground Fairyhouse claimer towards the end of May. Though he was off the bridle from an early stage, his jockey persevered and despite trading at 1000 in running, he took the lead inside the final furlong to win by two lengths. Though the form is modest and the favourites underperformed, he did had Roscommon winner Whyzzat over three lengths behind him in fourth. Normal services were resumed for his handicap debut four weeks ago as he beat only one home finishing over twenty lengths behind the winner. Impressive though the pedigree may be, it is not particularly conducive to a hurdling career. Nevertheless, the trainer did saddle the aforementioned Whyzzat last week and Grand Revival would not be completely without chance if running to his Fairyhouse form.
Li Mu Bai bg Gavin Cromwell f8-1-1 (74) 83
Sir Prancealot (Invincible Spirit){3-e}(1.67) 3/1 Plague O' Rats 1st 2m1f Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 1990
The highest rated newcomer in the field, Li Mu Bai comes with a mark of 74 courtesy of a win in a Fairyhouse handicap in early July, and a neck second at Galway later that month. Both of those efforts came over seven furlongs however, and he was slightly below form on his return to Galway eight days ago. A son of Sir Prancealot out of an Invincible Spirit mare, Li Mu Bai is not especially bred for a hurdles trip. Incidentally, he comes from thoroughbred family 3-e which is one of the more successful in the division, although the most accomplished recent juvenile in that family, Romain de Senam appears at 10/9 on the damline. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has been in decent form recently and his winner to runner rate of 21.82% is solid enough, although his first time out rate stands at just 5.66%. Li Mu Bai is far from a forlorn hope, although his stamina and specifics in his profile do dampen enthusiasm.
Luz Long bg J G Coogan f4-0-0 (45) 41
Elzaam (Rail Link){1-l}(0.71) 0.5 Jeff Kidder 1st Champion 4yo Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2021
Another who only made his racecourse debut this spring, Luz Long has been beaten at long odds on all four outings and his official mark of 45 exceeds his accomplishments. Notwithstanding, while sire Elzaam was a precocious and speedily bred sprinter, two of his eight juveniles have been winners and his progeny has a 57.14% improvement rate between codes. Furthermore, his half-brother Jeff Kidder was one of the leading juvenile hurdlers of last season and the useful Hills Of Aran also appears on the damline at 3/2. Just one of James Coogan's thirteen juveniles have been winners, but his charge's improvement rate of 71.43% is laudable and his sole winner did score first time out. The individual accomplishments of Luz Long afford him scant prospects here, but there is enough in his profile to suggest that he can at least make a better hurdler.
Project Two brg Edward P Harty f6-0-0 (54) 64 j1-0-1 (-) 102 98
Belardo (Mizzen Mast){8-h}(1.46) 3/2 Paseo 3rd Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2019
Though he showed a modicum of promise on his two starts at Dundalk last year, Project Two was completely tailed off on his first couple of outings this term and subsequently only hinted at form in a pair of modest handicaps. Ahead of his hurdling debut at Roscommon last week, breeding clues were threadbare as he was the first juvenile hurdler for sire Belardo, himself the first son of Lope de Vega to have such a runner, and the closest reasonable hurdling relative was Paseo at 3/2. Edward Harty has had his fair share of winners in the sphere, although the yard has not been firing on all cylinders as of late. In the contest itself, Project Two was held up in touch for most of the race and began to get outpaced leaving the back, further impeded by the hapless slip of Helvic Princess. Nevertheless, while he never looked dangerous, he was able to plug on for third, finishing fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. This unexpected performance can not be rationalised by exceptional jumping as although his hurdling was not terrible, he skewed when hopping over the second, got in close to the fourth, again at four our, hopped the next and got in tight when hopping through the last. Given his questionable overall profile, time will have to be the judge whether this performance was an anomaly and there is no reason why he would reverse placings with Eternal Presence.
Rich Law No Law bg M Keane f8-0-2 (45) 52
Lawman (Singspiel){2-f}(0.78) 2/2 Percy Street 6th Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (G3,124), Cheltenham 2017
Starting his career with Kevin Prendergast, Rich Law No Law collected a couple of placings in a pair of nurseries last autumn. However, his final two starts of last year were below par and he joined Maurice Keane after fetching €5,500 at the Goffs February sale. He was well beaten off 46 on his first start for his new handler - who himself is without any jumps winner since September 2012. Lawman has a fairly solid record as a sire of juveniles and cousin Percy Street finished sixth in the 2017 Fred Winter. However, there are enough holes in Rich Law No Law's form and profile to temper any real enthusiasm here.
Virtual Hug bg Conor O'Dwyer f11-0-2 (65) 76
Buratino (Lilbourne Lad){3-o}(0.56) 4/1 Inchacooley 5th 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 1996
The second highest rated newcomer in the field is Virtual Hug who arrives here after eleven flat outings with a mark of 65. His best efforts came over a mile at Gowran last August, Naas the following month, and at Dundalk in January. He ran below par on his return from a three month break in May but shaped better when last seen at Leopardstown eighteen days ago. He has yet to race beyond a mile and his free running style may be more pronounced in this type of contest. Despite a low dosage index, his pedigree is not given to stamina although sire Buratino's sole juvenile to date has been a winner. Conor O'Dwyer has had a winner this month, but is yet to taste success in this discipline from fifteen individual juveniles. Virtual Hugs holds some chance on form, but he will absolutely need to settle if he is to have an impact in this sphere.
Whipsaw bg Henry De Bromhead f6-0-0 (59) 65 j1-0-0 (-) 87 81
Camacho (Oasis Dream){4-j}(2.11) 2/2 Calidus Mirabilis 2nd 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2020
One of two runners for Henry De Bromhead, Whipsaw is another veteran of last week's Roscommon contest. A maiden on the flat, his best effort was a fifth placed finish in a seven furlong Cork handicap off 65 back in April. While he is a cousin of Calidus Mirabilis, who was second in this race last year, the Camacho x Oasis Dream cross is not conducive to stamina and it played out last week. Racing prominently from the outset, Whipsaw was lit up in the early stages and also had a habit of wandering into his flights. He lost his lead going out onto the second circuit and faded badly after losing his position on the home turn. Even without the jumping errors, any optimism for the future would be tempered by his apparent lack of stamina.
Calvados bf John C McConnell f6-0-0 (55) 66
Vadamos (Nathaniel){5-h}(0.38) 3/1 Madrasa 1st 2m3½f Novices' Handicap Hurdle (95), Wetherby 2015
Though still without a win in six starts since her debut last November, Calvados ran her best race to date last time out at Killarney four weeks ago. Stepping up in trip to eleven furlongs and racing off 56, she travelled sensibly behind the leaders and though she did not have the pace to pose any real threat, she kept on well enough. Denied second place by just a head, she also had several of today's rivals behind her and comes out best at the weights. Sire Vadamos has had just the one juvenile to date, but the son of Monsun has the potential to be a useful weapon in the sphere. Calvados will be the first representative of Nathaniel as a damsire, but his record as a sire is very strong in terms of class and winners. John McConnell has a healthy record in the division with a 25% winner to runner rate, and comes here on the back of landing a treble at Downpatrick on Sunday. The yard's runners tend to improve for the run, and Calvados still has a bit to find on bare form, but she would still have the potential to do well in this company.
Mystery Show bf John Joseph Hanlon f8-2-1 (81) 85 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Showcasing (Kheleyf){9-h}(1.55) 2/1 Dilshaan's Prize 1st 2m Novice Hurdle, Naas 2011
Previously with Archie Watson, Mystery Show, holds winning flat form and has the highest official rating in that sphere at 81. She landed a ten furlong Ascot handicap off 80 back in May on soft ground and while she ran flat on two of her three subsequent outings, her penultimate performance still looked good in the context of this field. Signs of poor temperament were beginning to emerge however, and she left the Watson yard for 12,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Her pedigree is not without merit as sire Showcasing has a healthy 27.27% winner to runner rate, and the dam is a half-sister to four winning jumpers including Dilshaan's Prize. John Joseph Hanlon does get winners, although his winner to runner rate of 13.04% is below average. Making her hurdling debut at Roscommon last week, Mystery Show went into 5/1 at one point in the morning, but was friendless in the ring, going from 15/2 to 16/1 at the off. Already showing some recalcitrance after the off, she drifted back through the field before getting very badly hampered at the first, and was pulled up shortly thereafter. While she would still be entitled to some respect on her flat form and breeding, her questionable temperament and dubious hurdles debut would make her a risky proposition.
Television bf Hugh Paul Finegan f3-0-0 (60) 62 j1-0-0 (-) 80 76
Estidhkaar (Footstepsinthesand){12-g}(0.71) 4/0 Marienthal 5th 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 1990
Making her racecourse debut at the end of May, Television finished closer to last than first in a trio of maiden contests. Her official mark of 60, while open for debate, was the fourth highest brought into Roscommon's curtain raiser last week. The second juvenile hurdler for her trainer, and first for sire Estidhkaar (Dark Angel), Televisions only pedigree clue, apart from being 5/4 with Berjou, is that her fourth dam finished fifth in an Auteuil claimer in 1990. Starting in the rear, Television moved quickly through the field but was still caught up in the first flight drama. Though emerging relatively unscathed, her confidence was affected as she was steady at most of her remaining flights. Televison never made any further progress in the race, and passed only the fading Whipsaw on the run-in to finish twenty-two lengths behind the winner. While she would be entitled to run a little better with a clearer run, her confidence would not yet be assured and there is still plenty of ground to be made up on Eternal Presence and Project Two.
RESERVES
Gervada bg Ciaran Murphy Unraced
Vadamos (Deposit Ticket){2-n}(0.80) 0.5 Free Code 5th 2m3f Maiden Hurdle, Limerick 2018
Going unsold for €17,000 as a yearling at the Goffs Sportsman's sale in 2019, Gervada could make his racecourse debut here if getting in the race. Another son of Vadamos, Gervada is a half-brother two three flat winners at up to a mile including Free Code who also finished fifth in a maiden hurdle at Limerick. The great Sea Bird also appears on the damline at 5/3 with top French chaser Aveu de Kervero a further step away at 5/4. He could be the first runner in a juvenile hurdle for Ciaran Murphy, whose overall strike rate with jumpers stands at 3%. Though not entirely without potential, Gervada does not quite have enough in his profile to offset the poor record of unraced debutants in the division.
Feigh chf W P Mullins Unraced
Well Chosen (Great Palm){14-a}(0.80) 2/1 Belmount 1st 3m1f Handicap Chase (127), Hereford 2016
Willie Mullins has a record with juvenile hurdlers which is basically the envy of everybody in the business. However, Feigh, his possible first runner of the campaign, failed to sell as a foal at the Tattersalls Ireland sale, passing through the ring with a bid of just €1,800. Bred to be a chaser for the long term, Feigh is by a Well Chosen whose sole juvenile failed to score. Her uncle Belmount was a fairly useful staying chaser and the likes of Afistfullofdollars (3/2) Gaye Brief, Gaye Chance and Black Humour (each at 4/1) also appear on the damline. While any Mullins representative would be entitled to some respect, it is worth nothing that he has yet to score with a racecourse debutant in the sphere.
Grey Angel cgf Noel Meade f3-0-0 (51) 55 j1-0-0 (-) 59 53
Lethal Force (Three Valleys){A29}(1.40) 3/1 Magnitude 3rd 2m Selling Hurdle, Leicester 2009
Three outings as a two-year-old saw Grey Angel allotted a rating of 51 and she was last seen on the flat refusing to enter the stalls ahead of her intended reappearance at Cork back in May. Making her hurdling debut last week, she suffered considerable inconvenience at the first flight melee and spent the race bringing up the rear. She skewed over the second and third, wandered at the fourth and was slow over the fifth. Though she jumped better from there, she made no impression on the contest. She can largely be forgiven that outing, although there is still little in her profile that would make her of particular interest going forward.
Strong prospects
1. Eternal Presence
Reasonable prospects
2. Calvados
3. Project Two
Feasible prospects
4. Grand Revival
5. Luz Long
6. Li Mu Bai
7. Mystery Show
Moderate prospects
8. Virtual Hug
9. Television
10. Gervada (R)
11. Feigh (R)
Negligible prospects
12. Whipsaw
13. Grey Angel (R)
14. Rich Law No Law
15. Drogheda Dave
16. Fake Plastic Trees