I've done Noon Star for York. Form franked yesterday by Sherbert Lemon and although she turned it round with Loving Dream that filly isn't bred to stay more than 10f.
I've done Noon Star for York. Form franked yesterday by Sherbert Lemon and although she turned it round with Loving Dream that filly isn't bred to stay more than 10f.
I copied the link to Simon Rowlands's ATR sectional blog on the Derby thread but it covers the Oaks too so worth copying here as well.
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sec...nd-oaks-trials
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Latest dec stage, 19 left:
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...-06-04/780497/
I've had another ante-post pop at a longer-priced entry: Donnacha O'Brien's Shale 25/1 - her 2yo rating is in the same ball park as that of Dubai Fountain who is now in single figures in places following her anticipated comeback win at York. I imagine people will doubt Shale's stamina as she's a daughter of a 1000 Guineas winner in Homecoming Queen (does that make me a daydream believer?) and actually reappeared over 7f but she's by Galileo and her dosage figures suggest the trip could be well within her compass, in which case she looks a decent back-up for Coolmore.
DP = 4-2-18-12-0 (36) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.06
Of course, there has to be a fair chance she won't run but the fact that she's still there after the latest forfeit stage must mean they're still thinking about it. I reckon, a wee bit not unlike One Ruler in the Derby, if she turns up she won't be anywhere near 25/1.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 19th May 2021 at 6:17 PM.
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Are we to conclude that Indigo Girl has had a setback?
Her Dosage is more or less the same as Ace Aussie...different numbers but the tail line is sprint orientated....
Her Dam, Homecoming Queen stole the 1,000 guineas as a pacemaker, the only race she won over a mile....
Shale also has 3 other siblings, all by Galileo and none of them got further than a 1m1f.
Edit...
Out of the 22 Holy Roman Emperor mares crossed with Galileo, only one, Johannes Vermeer got 1m2f but failed to stay over further. His Dam, Inca Princess was a sprinter but Her Dam, Miletrian, won the Parkhill, hence the slight upward degree in stamina.
Shale is a miler. She's owned by the very same connections as Mother Earth.....she could well be on a par with her and they knew that ME would be contesting two top-class mile races in a short space of time, so they saved her, Shale, for the Irish 1,000....
Last edited by Maxbet; 20th May 2021 at 8:56 AM.
Colin Phillips (20th May 2021)
Maxbet (20th May 2021)
Do Coolemore have so much money to waste 12f entries are pointless?
Ace Aussie's two long-term entries are over 12f.
The full siblings were pretty modest creatures but tended to run over a mile as juveniles. They weren't tried beyond 10f, possibly for a reason, but I'm more inclined to think they were just not very good. None had long careers so maybe training on is the issue given that HQ never really progressed after her Guineas.
Shale looks different in terms of what's she's already achieved but at least my hopes are now appropriately tempered
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Exactly. They took out the real no-hopers so why leave this one in? Why do they need a precautionary entry for the Oaks if she is a no-hoper?
The Guineas run might be her final serious gallop
But just to be clear, at no time have I suggested Shale can/will win the Oaks. I stand to win pretty big off Santa Barbara (188/1 in the double with Mother Earth and 1511/1 in the treble with HD) but I've been trying to get ones whose odds were much longer than their true chances (hence Dubai Fountain at 33/1) with a view to laying off at shorter and having several 'onside' to little or no risk, just for cover.
At the moment, I think Shale is officially the top-rated horse in the race. The 25/1 on offer was about whether or not her stamina would hold out because if it does and she is fit enough to do her rating justice she won't be far away.
I'm not trying to teach my granny to suck eggs (I'm not sure my granny knew anyway, to be honest) but betting isn't about winning a battle; it's about winning the war.
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Colin Phillips (20th May 2021)
Desert Orchid (20th May 2021)
Shale won't run if the ground is heavy...Donnacha Obrien
Desert Orchid (21st May 2021)
Desert Orchid (21st May 2021)
St Aidan quoted on the RTV site:
Santa Barbara:
It was a big risk going to the 1000 Guineas on only her second run, but she ran very well. This was always pencilled in to be her next run.
She came out of the 1000 Guineas well and everything has gone well with her since. She hasn’t been over that far before, but she is a Camelot filly and we are really looking forward to seeing her run. She was always very special in her work.
Physically she has been very good (since the 1000 Guineas), she didn’t lose much weight and mentally she has been very relaxed. They were the two big things you want to see. It is a risk going into a Classic on only your second run, from a very easy run on softish ground at the Curragh, to then go to Newmarket on fast ground. We were really delighted the way she came out of it.
Snowfall:
We always thought the world of Snowfall last year, but we could never get her to produce what she was doing at home. Maybe a little bit of time over the winter, maybe she matured from two to three and a little bit extra distance has helped her. We were delighted for her to show what she has been showing us the last year at home.
Physically she has done well since and mentally she is lovely, so it is very possible that she could really take off.
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Donnacha O'Brien eyeing Coronation Stakes or Diane for star filly Shale
Shale, the joint highest-rated juvenile filly in Europe last season, could join a top-class cast of fillies in next month's Coronation Stakes or bid for Classic glory in the Prix de Diane, according to trainer Donnacha O'Brien.
The 2020 Moyglare Stakes heroine was a general 11-2 chance for Sunday's Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh but missed the contest, which was run on going described as heavy.
"We didn't want to run her on very bad ground," said O'Brien. "It's going to be a long season so we didn't want to bottom her. She's fine, though, and I'd imagine it'll be either the Prix de Diane or the Coronation Stakes for her."
Last edited by Maxbet; 25th May 2021 at 3:24 PM.
Desert Orchid (25th May 2021)
What am i missing with Dubai Fountain at 12-1? She beat Zeyaadah (5-1) LTO in the Cheshire Oaks, had good 2 year old form, should stay and is fairy well bred.
Last edited by Slim; 3rd June 2021 at 7:58 AM.
Indeed.
However, what's to say Dubai Fountain was anywhere near fit? She was comfortably clear on the ratings going into it and could afford to go there half-cooked.
Then again, it's okay for me to say that, having backed her at 33/1 for this in the lead-up to that
I still think she should be around the same price as Zeyaadah, though.
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