2021 Oaks

[Desert Orchid]

I don't often get involved early in this race so it was unusual for me to take Santa Barbara back in January in the ante-post yankee I mentioned elsewhere.

To be honest, I was pretty much backing her blind. I wanted the other three combined and had a quick look at the Oaks betting.

I had never even heard of Santa Barbara and a quick check of her form - an easy win in a modest enough mile maiden - didn't seem anything special so I assumed there must have been some serious rumours emanating from Ballydoyle. I basically decided to follow whatever rumours or money were behind the price for the sake of adding a fourth horse for the yankee. No more, no less.

I've since had a wee pop at Michael Stoute's Noon Star (33/1), again just following Timeform (who recommend her and Roger Varian's Teona (16/1)).

[Euronymous]

Not the right thread but have backed Willow at 12/1 for the Oaks. This is the last chance to bet her at double figures.

[Euronymous]

I take it you've heard something, Slim?

I see she runs today. Backing her now - surely she should be a lot longer than 12s for the Oaks anyway - assumes a runaway win today, which is far from guaranteed (unless, as I say, you've heard something). If she doesn't win she would go longer.

Although she's out of Peeping Fawn, there's no guarantee that she'll stay either, given her dosage:

DP = 4-3-9-2-0 (18) DI = 1.77 CD = 0.50

[Maxbet]

Willow is 33/1 now Slim...you going in again?

[Slim]

God no. That was shocking.

[Desert Orchid]

I've since had a wee pop at Michael Stoute's Noon Star (33/1)

I had no idea this had run yesterday.

Wetherby??

Still, she must have done it nicely enough to drop to 14s for the Oaks. I also have her in an ew double with Cleveland (25/1) in the Derby. Now, if he could come out and run with real promise in the Dante...

[Slim]

I had no idea this had run yesterday.

Wetherby??

Still, she must have done it nicely enough to drop to 14s for the Oaks. I also have her in an ew double with Cleveland (25/1) in the Derby. Now, if he could come out and run with real promise in the Dante...

She was as impressive as Willow was unimpressive.

[Desert Orchid]

She was as impressive as Willow was unimpressive.

Just watched the replay.

Hard to know what she achieved but lots of big operations represented in the race: Gosden (x2), Godolphin (x2), another Stoute, Varian (x2), Shadwell (x2). Some of them very huge prices, though, so maybe pretty modest form.

[barjon]

Just watched the replay.

Hard to know what she achieved but lots of big operations represented in the race: Gosden (x2), Godolphin (x2), another Stoute, Varian (x2), Shadwell (x2). Some of them very huge prices, though, so maybe pretty modest form.

I thought Franklet had a nice introductory run. If Havlin had been riding he might have picked up another 21 days in the cooler

[Desert Orchid]

On dosage, there has to be a chance Mother Earth will stay although St Aidan seems to doubt it:

DP = 2-4-8-5-1 (20) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.05

Much more certain, I reckon is Santa Barbara:

DP = 3-2-15-8-0 (28) DI = 0.81 CD = 0.00

and I'd hold high hopes that the track won't be a problem given her sire won the Derby. Guineas are often the best trials for Epsom, which is another plus.

I can't see anything else from today's race being a threat although Saffron Beach has prospects:

DP = 0-6-3-5-0 (14) DI = 1.15 CD = 0.07

We'll need to see what the other trials throw up.

I'm surprised Santa B didn't shorten after today.

[Desert Orchid]

I've had a pop at Dubai Fountain 33/1 in anticipation of a comfortable win in Chester's Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday.

She has a 12lb margin on ORs, 13lbs on RPRs and her current OR 110 would not be far off a placing in an average renewal. If she can improve 7lbs into this season she'd be pretty much guaranteed to place and possibly win.

She wasn't beaten at all far in the Fillies' Mile (in amongst some Guineas runners, including Mother Earth) and is indeed entitled to improve significantly for stepping up in trip (Dosage reads: DP = 3-6-9-10-0 (28) DI = 0.93 CD = 0.07)

While she's entitled to win comfortably on Wednesday - and 7/2 strikes me as incredible value - if she does she'll probably more than halve in price so I want her onside at long odds.

In fact, as things stand, only three fillies are ahead of her on RPRs:

Pretty Gorgeous 114 - unlikely to stay
Indigo Girl 112 - will stay
Shale 112 - not guaranteed to stay

Her current RPR (111) is the same as the one Mother Earth achieved yesterday, which puts things into some kind of context.

(Will copy to the Longshot Thread.)

[Desert Orchid]

I've had a pop at Dubai Fountain 33/1 in anticipation of a comfortable win in Chester's Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday.

She has a 12lb margin on ORs, 13lbs on RPRs and her current OR 110 would not be far off a placing in an average renewal. If she can improve 7lbs into this season she'd be pretty much guaranteed to place and possibly win.

She wasn't beaten at all far in the Fillies' Mile (in amongst some Guineas runners, including Mother Earth) and is indeed entitled to improve significantly for stepping up in trip (Dosage reads: DP = 3-6-9-10-0 (28) DI = 0.93 CD = 0.07)

While she's entitled to win comfortably on Wednesday - and 7/2 strikes me as incredible value - if she does she'll probably more than halve in price so I want her onside at long odds.

In fact, as things stand, only three fillies are ahead of her on RPRs:

Pretty Gorgeous 114 - unlikely to stay
Indigo Girl 112 - will stay
Shale 112 - not guaranteed to stay

Her current RPR (111) is the same as the one Mother Earth achieved yesterday, which puts things into some kind of context.

(My emphasis)

The market has gone a long way to correcting itself. Dubai Fortune is now 15/8 clear favourite and even that might be quite generous. Already 11/8 in a place or two.

[Slim]

La Jaconde is not one to write off tomorrow. Ryan Moore rides Nicest and they put her in 14/1. So you get Oisin Murphy and the price boost because Moore rejects her. She clearly needs the step up.in trip and ground will be ok. She has a better chance than a few at single figures in the race.

[Desert Orchid]

La Jaconde is not one to write off tomorrow. Ryan Moore rides Nicest and they put her in 14/1. So you get Oisin Murphy and the price boost because Moore rejects her. She clearly needs the step up.in trip and ground will be ok. She has a better chance than a few at single figures in the race.

Yes, but the 14s have gone. Now 10s tops.

The Stack runner is also over-priced:

Horse	*	Trainer	Jockey	OR	RPR	CBP
Dubai Fountain	1,2	Mark Johnston	Franny Norton	110	125	2/1
Ahandfulofsummers	1,2,3	J A Stack	William Buick	93	112	20/1
Zeyaadah	1,2	Roger Varian	Jim Crowley	98	108	11/4
La Joconde	1,2,3	A P O'Brien	Oisin Murphy	95	107	10/1
Nicest	1,2,3	Donnacha O'Brien	Ryan Moore	94	107	7/1
Darlectable You	1,2	J&T Gosden	Frankie Dettori	-	99	9/2
Quenelle D'Or	1,2	Hugo Palmer	James Doyle	80	93	33/1

* - Group level entries
CBP – Current best price (8.30am)

[Desert Orchid]

14/1 the Stack runner ew in the market without DF is very tempting.

[Desert Orchid]

I've had a pop at Dubai Fountain 33/1 in anticipation of a comfortable win in Chester's Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday.

...

While she's entitled to win comfortably on Wednesday - and 7/2 strikes me as incredible value - if she does she'll probably more than halve in price so I want her onside at long odds.

Chuffed on both counts.

If only I could stick to those kinds of bets!

[Slim]

I'd be surprised if there was one Group 1 filly in that race.

[Desert Orchid]

I'll reserve judgment myself until I've had time to dig in a bit.

First impression was that the Gosden/Shadwell filly, who was something like 9/4f earlier in the week, would have been hailed an impressive winner, if DF wasn't there, from two Coolmores and her price would be as it was straight after the race, ie about 8/1.

I wouldn't put it past Johnston to have left plenty to work on with the winner but I've always got the option of taking a profit now or laying off the stake for a no-risk interest.

[Euronymous]

Teona - what am I missing? Very short for the Musidora. Is she working to One Ruler levels?

[Desert Orchid]

I've noticed the price contracting gradually for some time.

Might be working well. Might be because it's one of Timeform's ante-post selections (the other is Noon Star). Might be that other horses/fillies from the stable (Varian) are running well and people are putting two and two together.

Edit - just noticed re-reading through the thread that Zeyaadah isn't trained by Gosden but by Varian. Maybe Teona is working the better.

Re-edit - Noon Star (Kingscote) and Teona (Atzeni) both jocked up in the Musidora.