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Thread: 2021 2000 Guineas

  1. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    I'd rate both the first 2 higher than Timeform - we'll see!
    So does Kevin Blake, apparently:
    https://www.attheraces.com/images/fe...pdated_400.jpg
    Last edited by reet hard; 4th May 2021 at 6:19 PM.

  2. #162
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Van Gogh can trump Mac Swiney and the rest of them at Epsom next month.

    What trial will they go for, that's the question.
    How about the 2,000 guineas at newmarket

  3. #163
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I managed to check out the Guineas card last night.

    I usually try to clear my mind of ideas and notions I formed at the time of the race itself and focus on what the numbers throw up but in this case they are coinciding.

    There are three most likely scenarios:

    1. The race was modest and the winner is worth a rating of 117.
    2. The race was slightly less modest and the winner is worth 119.
    3. The race is better still but it means the later C&D handicap is very strong form based on comparative times.

    In all three cases, they point to its being a substandard renewal; it's just a question of degrees.

    For now, I'm going with scenario 1 but will allow in my head for the possibility of either of the other scenarios. (In practice, this just means if in a future race I have MOTS on '117 (+?)' and something else on '117?' I'll favour the former, probably unless there is a huge discrepancy in the prices.)
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  5. #164
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Am I missing something, Master of the Seas 9/2 for the SJP. That's huge

    The Bolger m.o is to win as many Guineas as possible so the Godolphin horse will have the edge there and the ground will likely still be too lively for St. Marks.

    Surprised MTOS wasn't 9/4 to be honest.

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  7. #165
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I think maybe in a normal year 9/2 about a 2000G winner for the SJP would be interesting but MOTS's current rating wouldn't win most SJPs. Lucky Vega might improve more and who knows what the Irish or French Guineas might throw up.

    The chances are that price might hold until much nearer the time, I'd reckon.
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  8. #166
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    He's got the same rating post Guineas that Barney Roy had.

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    Desert Orchid (6th May 2021)

  10. #167
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've taken 10/1 Battleground for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

    He ended up punted into 9/2f for the Guineas at Newmarket so clearly plenty was expected of him. He didn’t handle the track so this should be much better for him, he didn’t have a hard race and he won the Chesham in soft so I’m happy to take out some sickness insurance at 10/1 (4 places, 15/2 for five places with Skybet for the ultra-cautious) and will go in again if he goes longer by Saturday. I presume the Poulains was too soon for Poetic Flare (9/2) so this might be too. I couldn’t back the other Coolmores at short odds so will just stick with Battleground.
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  11. #168
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Right then Wembley!
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  12. #169
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    After receiving 34mm of rain instead of forecast 15mm. Saturdays meeting is in doubt.if today’s rain is more than what’s forecast there’s a problem
    i like Battleground. But it’s going to be very soft and that’s not normally a positive for off spring of war front maybe he be best saved for the SJP stakes ar RA
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  13. #170
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    Quote Originally Posted by prince regent View Post
    After receiving 34mm of rain instead of forecast 15mm. Saturdays meeting is in doubt.if today’s rain is more than what’s forecast there’s a problem
    i like Battleground. But it’s going to be very soft and that’s not normally a positive for off spring of war front maybe he be best saved for the SJP stakes ar RA
    Battleground bled before Newmarket.

  14. #171
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Battleground bled before Newmarket.
    Was this public knowledge?

    Any more details?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  15. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Was this public knowledge?

    Any more details?
    Not public knowledge no.

  16. #173
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    I know he's not a firm forum favorite but I see Van Gogh is being smashed up for the Guineas tomorrow.

  17. #174
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I know he's not a firm forum favorite but I see Van Gogh is being smashed up for the Guineas tomorrow.
    Because of the Ground

  18. #175
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    I’ve backed Mac Sweeney e/w @ 8s on the basis he’s sure to handle the ground better than most and has a proven liking for the track.

    The downsides are jockey bookings - obviously Manning was going to stay loyal to Poetic Flare but Cleary has a 4% strike rate, notwithstanding the fact many of those would have been at biggish prices that is pretty poor by any standards. Also he might be need a bit further than this but he won’t fail for stamina and time may tell he was beaten by a Derby winner in the Derrinstown. He came on plenty from his first run as a 2yo too.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  19. #176
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    Alas we have seen too many wet Irish Guineas weekends in the near and far past.
    Mac Swiney my ew fancy also; he comes good every second run.
    Rory Cleary wont be found wanting either.

  20. #177
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've taken 10/1 Battleground for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

    He ended up punted into 9/2f for the Guineas at Newmarket so clearly plenty was expected of him. He didn’t handle the track so this should be much better for him, he didn’t have a hard race and he won the Chesham in soft so I’m happy to take out some sickness insurance at 10/1 (4 places, 15/2 for five places with Skybet for the ultra-cautious) and will go in again if he goes longer by Saturday. I presume the Poulains was too soon for Poetic Flare (9/2) so this might be too. I couldn’t back the other Coolmores at short odds so will just stick with Battleground.
    Skybet goes 14/1 to 5 places...

    MY STABLE PRICE BOOST: BATTLEGROUND IN 3.20 CURRAGH - WAS 10/1, NOW 14/1 (Sky Bet paying 5 places on this race) (max bet £25 win or £25 e.w.)

    https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...eground/191348
    Last edited by Maxbet; 21st May 2021 at 5:11 PM.

  21. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I know he's not a firm forum favorite but I see Van Gogh is being smashed up for the Guineas tomorrow.
    He's 4/1 fav in places

  22. #179
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    Yeah, smash up job.

  23. #180
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Knowing 'the lads' this could be a decoy...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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