What are you backing Today? Part 2

[Marb]

Surely Edward Cornelius can win the 7.25 at hamilton tonight. No one will get rich backing it but the horse he deadheated with the last day in the Scottish Stewards Cup has just hacked up at Goodwood, (I'm A Gambler).

Edward must have a great chance. A bit of ease in the going could suit him aswell.

[reet hard]

Illustrating 2.55C
ew 25/1 B365

[yorick]

One feels inclined to have a little on Tippy Toes (2.55 Chester) since we have absolutely no clue as to the stable's intentions for this one or, indeed, what the real ability of the filly is. To us punters, it's anyone's guess. So, A tiny insurance, so as not to miss out in the (unlikely) event that he should strike lucky here.

Really, it's a trappy old race, with so many ifs and buts, that it should be left alone but this is a calm Sunday (Placido Domingo, in Spanish, would you believe?) that invites watching some sport for little stakes. So, I'll chance my arm with a go on:

Illustrating - 2:55 Chester 20/1 Ew

I'm with you on this one, Reet. He's run some decent efforts in the context of this race, not least with three group race runs last back-end. There's every chance that the eassier ground and the extra furlong will be welcome and 20/1 does look generous to me.

Railway Muice - 2.45 MR - 5/1 Ew

This two-times course winner looks a safe bet to at least frame here so the 5/1 is just about 'do-able'. It's not the best race in the world, is it?

Lunar Jet - 4:30 Chester - Ew 16/1 first 6 places

Last back - end this one ran 5th in the November h/cap at Donny with an OR of 86 on soft ground, running on with Ceiran Fallon up. Well, he's down to 77 here and that, surely, makes his 25/1 price look ridiculous to me. However, the trainer is 0-8 on the course over the last 5 years so I'm content to take 16/1 ew extra 6 places with that in mind.

3 x Ew singles

Ew trixie

[Danny]

Lunar Jet - 4:30 Chester - Ew 16/1 first 6 places

Last back - end this one ran 5th in the November h/cap at Donny with an OR of 86 on soft ground, running on with Ceiran Fallon up. Well, he's down to 77 here and that, surely, makes his 25/1 price look ridiculous to me. However, the trainer is 0-8 on the course over the last 5 years so I'm content to take 16/1 ew extra 6 places with that in mind.

I was just coming on to say I fancied this today but was late getting to the form book today and the prices as he's 12/1 now but was certainly a cracking bet at 25's or as you have 16's with 6 places trouble in running should be the only thing to stop you collecting on that Yorick. Good luck.

[yorick]

Here are a couple for tomorrow that have found their way into my notebook. I think they have a chance at a decent price.

Firstly:

Wynford - 6.40 Carlisle 6/1 Ew

Was noted making late headway in the Northumberland Plate consolation. Back to near his LWR, he's a course winner who'll go on the good ground predicted but will handle it if there's a bit more give. Must have a chance back in this grade.

Walnut Beach - 3.00 Cork - 25/1 Ew

Here's one I picked up on three runs ago when he was sent all around the houses at Leopardstown in June. The pilot seemed to enjoy the Irish countryside on that occasion, rather than trying to win the race: "Nearest finish"


Next up at Bellewstown, he was allowed to languish in the rear for the most part before strolling into 8th of 15 up the run-in. "Dwelt start, in rear, ridden and headway against far rail over 1f out, kept on final furlong, never on terms."

Then, last time up, he was the subject of the dreaded early gamble from 25's in the morning to 13/2 at the off. Blew out, of course. "(jockey said gelding was slowly away from the starting stalls)" Ahem.



Tomorrow we see him out again, this time over hurdles and I wonder if this will be the day, after all the shenanigans. Worth a look, imo

So:

2 x Ew singles,

Ew double


Have a look, see what you think.


Good luck

[barjon]

City of Life 1:48 Ayr. I put this up not as a betting proposition - the price has gone, 6/4atm from 9/4 overnight, but as an example of the “debut handicap, down in Class, up in distance” angle. His last run at Yarmouth was his handicap debut etc etc and I think he was up for it then as he had no right to be starting at 5/1 given his 3 qualifying runs, albeit as a 2yo, of course. In that race he was badly hampered three out and but for that I think he would have gone close.

[reet hard]

What's The Story 2.48A
Won't get rich off it, but was beaten by a good horse in a better race lto.
9/4 general.

[reet hard]

Yay, someone's fed the hamster.

[Marb]

Prix Rothchild tomorrow in France. Could prove an informative race. Tenebrism lines up again after her last win. A few other horses of interest as well which include Sibila Spain, Saffron Beach, Pearls Galore and Kennella.

I'd be tempted to chance Sibila Spain if the price was right. Don't think she ran her true race last time against Inspiral. Tenebrism obviously a massive danger to all and a likely winner.

[barjon]

City of Life 1:48 Ayr. I put this up not as a betting proposition - the price has gone, 6/4atm from 9/4 overnight, but as an example of the “debut handicap, down in Class, up in distance” angle. His last run at Yarmouth was his handicap debut etc etc and I think he was up for it then as he had no right to be starting at 5/1 given his 3 qualifying runs, albeit as a 2yo, of course. In that race he was badly hampered three out and but for that I think he would have gone close.

Never put in the race, I had a starter at 9/4 and a bit more @7/4. Interesting, even @ 6/4 the cash out on the first 9/4 bit didn’t change from that initial stake. Hmmm?

[barjon]

What's The Story 2.48A
Won't get rich off it, but was beaten by a good horse in a better race lto.
9/4 general.

Nice one, reet

[reet hard]

Prix Rothchild tomorrow in France. Could prove an informative race. Tenebrism lines up again after her last win. A few other horses of interest as well which include Sibila Spain, Saffron Beach, Pearls Galore and Kennella.

I'd be tempted to chance Sibila Spain if the price was right. Don't think she ran her true race last time against Inspiral. Tenebrism obviously a massive danger to all and a likely winner.

I've taken 18/1 Sibila Spain (B365) She was thought good enough to contest our Falmouth, but clearly didn't like the fast ground.

[Marb]

I've taken 18/1 Sibila Spain (B365) She was thought good enough to contest our Guineas, but clearly didn't like the fast ground.

A good each way price I reckon, Reet.

Saffron won a group race on soft ground but that was a long time ago back in 2020. She's been doing all her racing on good ground.

I might have the race all wrong but I think Sibila is excellent each way value and Tenebrism is the one I'm worried about. Even though she hasn't raced on soft since her maiden win!

An each way single on Sibila Spain with reverse forecast Sibila and Tenebrism for me.

[Euronymous]

I've taken 18/1 Sibila Spain (B365) She was thought good enough to contest our Guineas,

You mean Malavath?

[reet hard]

No, I meant Falmouth. Fixed it now.

[reet hard]

Ayr Harbour 7.50K
15/2 888bet

[yorick]

Morning.

Here are my choices for the day. If you can be bothered to look at the reasoning behind them, do look at my blog where you can find a full write-up.


Punchbowl Flyer - 7:50 Kempton 22/1 Ew


Miss Scarlet - 3;15 Catterick 12/1 Ew


Mint Julep - 8.50 Kempton. 25/1 Ew

3 x Ew singles

Ew Trixie.

Good luck

[Bete Noir]

7.50 Kempton is the feature race of the day on the UK mainland.

Just considering the RPR and the market I will dutch Nationwide (11/4 early) and Prop Forward (3/1 early) before Ayr Harbour (9/1 early) unless it gets supported later.

[reet hard]

Granary Queen 3.40B
11/2 365

[yorick]

7.50 Kempton is the feature race of the day on the UK mainland.

Just considering the RPR and the market I will dutch Nationwide (11/4 early) and Prop Forward (3/1 early) before Ayr Harbour (9/1 early) unless it gets supported later.

Fill the first three places.

Nicely seen, Reet.