Giavellotto 2.05H
11/1 4 pl B365
Giavellotto 2.05H
11/1 4 pl B365
Get Shirty 3.15H
10/1 5pl B365
Heredia 15.00 Sandown
Picual 16.45 Sandown
Sixcor 18.50 Carlisle
E/W treble
3.15 Haydock Something Enticing 14/1 Bet365 (5 pl)
3.35 Sandown Alenquer 15/2 Coral (3 pl)
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Going gone soft at Haydock which is a pity since Sea La Rosa in the Lancashire Oaks is untested on it. Reduced bet @ 5/1.
She’s a Mirage 3:50 - Came from well off the pace to finished strongly last time and should be well suited by the extra furlong on nursery handicap debut. 7/1 atm.
Sinjaari 2:25 Sandown - badly drawn in Royal Hunt Cup, last off bridle and finished very strongly to 5th and best of those drawn high. 100/30 atm.
I'm interested to see how he gets on in the Old Newton Cup today.Originally Posted by Marb
I couldn't back him in this class of race but if he finishes in the top 8 or thereabouts it will be a good run.
Last edited by Marb; 2nd July 2022 at 11:03 AM.
Hopeful rather than confident about anything today.
From the stuff I put out last night (the Eclipse is on that thread) (updates):
Sandown 1.50 - I’m not going to overthink this. Equilateral (6/1 taken) went well enough in the King’s Stand to have me thinking he can win this.
Sandown 2.25 - I had Sinjaari in mind for the Magnet Cup but he wasn’t entered and it looks like the Charltons are training him as a miler. He certainly ran well enough in the Hunt Cup to suggest they might have a point and I am happy to back him here to modest stakes (11/4 BOG taken). Now 4s in a place.
Sandown 4.10 - This is an interesting race with several likely candidates. The three I fancy most strongly are Electrical Storm (13/2 current best price), Chairman (9/2) and Aqwaam (16/1). I’ll check the prices again in the morning and dutch them accordingly. Aqwaam had more than halved in price by the time I got round to checking so I ditched the other two and went for a win bet on him. Looks like I might have stumbled on to something.
Haydock 2.05 - There are too many unknown quantities in this for my liking but it will be form worth following given the value of the race..
Haydock 2.40 - This is another race I can let go.
Haydock 3.15 - I backed Liverpool Knight (12/1, now 8/1) on Wednesday so that’s one onside. I’ve also taken It’s Good To Laugh (16/1, 5pl, BOG) as a potential job for a shrewd trainer. Gaassee is a worthy favourite and has already qualified for the Ebor so I’m surprised they’re even running it beforehand. Maybe they feel another rise won’t stop it. I’ve also taken 50s (5pl, BOG) Love Is Golden in first-time pieces. It was only 7/1 for a £100k race at Epsom last month off a pound higher.
Haydock 4.25 - Stone Soldier is a fair bit better on the AW so I can rule him out. Oo De Lally’s (9/1) claimer makes him interesting. I still think Boardman (5/1) will be targeting the Ayr Gold Cup and will get in off this mark. Titan Rock (9/1) is the other profile horse. I think there are grounds for believing he can turn round his form with Young Fire. I’ll dutch Oo De Lally and him (4/1). TR is strong this morning, ODL weak. Not to worry, I have BOGs.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Really interesting race to have some fun with Marb
If Haley can get Secret Shadow settled in the first half of the field she will take some stopping.
She'll have to go some to beat Gaasee so I DUTCHED them at 11/10
Also had a few quid at evens on Secret Shadow 5 places
Big ask but I will also do a RFC later
Last edited by Tanlic; 2nd July 2022 at 12:07 PM.
Formely Fist of Fury
The latter horse, Aldhaja, runs in the 4.10 at Sandown today. He actually led before splitting Vee Sight and Hamaki whereas the time before in winning at Haydock he was held up. There's pace in this race so expect him to take a lead. I've backed him at 8s to go with my ap bets on Mitbaahy, Bay Bridge and Stay Alert at Haydock.
I have 8s each way on Stay Alert, happy with that as half that price now.
Last edited by Marb; 2nd July 2022 at 12:49 PM.
Really surprised she's come in for so much support given the stables of some her opponents.
Geez, that was the most incompetent ride I've seen for a long time on Equilateral.
(I like Shoemark but ffs...)
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 2nd July 2022 at 1:55 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Awful
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Last edited by viking; 2nd July 2022 at 2:05 PM.
I thought he nearly fvcked that up too on Sinjaari. The horse got him out of two tactical mistakes through the race.
Maybe the win will boost his confidence a bit.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 2nd July 2022 at 2:32 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
If you've backed Equilateral and Shinjaari today you've been fcked by a bad ride on the former (don't think he'd have won) and benefited from the howler Buick gave the 3yo in the latter. All balances out in the end.
Going forward Mitbaahy is in the King George sprint and the Stewards Cup. It's an easy 5 as we know so I've taken the chance that Varian keeps him in the handicap. 12s taken.
Desert Orchid (2nd July 2022)
I'm not so sure, Euro.
I thought Buick's horse was struggling to go the pace early and I'll be rating Sinjaari value for an extra two lengths. Listening to the post-race interview, I think maybe Shoemark was riding to instructions so I can cut him some slack on that one but he didn't make it look good (the ride, rather than the horse).
Illegitimi non carborundum
Royal Ascot winner Heredia well beaten. Sums up the day nicely.
I was on Grande Dame at Royal Ascot I thought she might out run the odds that day when she finished near last. I thought second place was the best she could hope for today.
I suppose if every horse race made perfect logical sense there would be no bookmakers would there...
Last edited by Marb; 2nd July 2022 at 3:13 PM.
Just watched it through a couple of times again. It looks like Buick maybe thought they were going too fast up front. The on-screen speedo was showing 38/39mph through the first few furlongs and it was after about three furlongs that Buick dropped his mount back. The field then slowed down on the turn - as they have to - to as low as 29mph, at which point he was still last, and then speeded back up to 39mph as they hit the straight so Buick was now trying to make his ground as the field was in overdrive. Those exertions, along with the hill, were taking their toll through the final two furlongs when they gradually slowed down to 33mph at the line.
Checkandchallenge is almost certainly worth a mark-up but so will be a few others.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 2nd July 2022 at 3:14 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Sinjaari was always going to come on strong in the last furlong - he’s been running Im2 and more ‘til he changed hands - and the stiff finish suited him. Almost got him bogged down in the pack, though. I thought CandC was a bit tapped for toe early and Buick chose not to force him up at that stage which was fair enough, although it left him with a struggle later.
Nice one, sir
reet hard (2nd July 2022)
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