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Thread: What are you backing Today? Part 2

  1. #1001
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    Alfred Boucher 6.00W
    6/1 B365

  2. #1002
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Aintree 12.55 - Riders Onthe Storm 14/1, 4pl - First time up for a new trainer and with the first-time tongue-tie might be the time to catch him. He did look like going places two seasons back and was only 11/1 for the Ryanair that season when he suffered two episodes of bad luck early on, the latter causing him to fall. That seemed to put him off the game if his subsequent form is anything to go by but he was rated 162 at that point so the handicapper has given him a real chance (147 here) if the old enthusiasm (if he ever had any!) can be rekindled. I meant to back him yesterday at teatime but was working on getting my figures and thoughts typed out and by the time I went to back him later in the evening he was blue and single figures across the board. I'm surprised he's showing at the price again but would be sick if I missed the opportunity.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  4. #1003
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    The Many Clouds is fascinating now with the overnight rain at Aintree. It brings Native River right into it and Sam Brown also as Protektorat, IA and Simply the Betts are all very dubious stayers over this trip on rain softened ground.

  5. #1004
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I'm on at Sandown but to pass the time I am going to see how much I can turn 100 points into.

    a point can be anything you like.

    The idea is to back aprox 3 trebles the start again with the original stake.

    Bets can be for a win a place a dutch..no holds barred.

    Bet No.1 50pts @ 1.34 Richmond for 3 places Aintree 11.15

    Balance 115.90pts win or 50pts if lose

    something has bolted prices are all over the place...took 1.34 fpr 3 places

    Richmond Place finished 3rd Next bet 65.90 pts Ask me early 2 places 1.33 Chepstow 11.38am

    Balance 186.22pts 1 win or 50pts if lose

    Ask Me Early finished 1st

    Final Leg 86.22pts of treble on Might I @ 1.31 for 3 places

    Balance if win 221.21 pts 50pts if lose

    Might I 2nd WITHDRAW 100pts

    Balance 121.21 pts

    Next Bet 71.21 win Elimay @1.48

    Elimay lost Prifit 50 pts

    50pts 4 places 1.96 shiroccos Dream Sandown

    Profit 94.88 if win Zero if lose

    94.88 pts @ 1.39 3 places Take your Time

    Take your Time finsihed 1st

    Profit 129.48

    Final Bet 129.48 pts @ 1.71

    Possible profit 215.44 or zero loss
    Last edited by Tanlic; 4th December 2021 at 2:00 PM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  6. #1005
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    The Many Clouds is fascinating now with the overnight rain at Aintree. It brings Native River right into it and Sam Brown also as Protektorat, IA and Simply the Betts are all very dubious stayers over this trip on rain softened ground.
    I'm really surprised Native River is fav. He'a had a togh old life over the years and they're asking him to do it all agin

    Would be nice if he could pull it off but I have to go with the younger Imperial Aura
    Last edited by Tanlic; 4th December 2021 at 1:39 PM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  7. #1006
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    True but the ground is very soft now and his three market rivals are all very questionable at the trip. IA is the likeliest to stay given his running style but I'm not confident even though I have a nice price about him.

  8. #1007
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    I’m hoping they can get another win from him. Imperial Aura has failed to complete in each of his last three runs and IMO is a doubtful stayer. Protektorat and Simply the Betts also doubtful stayers and I don’t believe Sam Brown is good enough for this


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  9. #1008
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Aintree 12.55 - Riders Onthe Storm 14/1, 4pl - First time up for a new trainer and with the first-time tongue-tie might be the time to catch him. He did look like going places two seasons back and was only 11/1 for the Ryanair that season when he suffered two episodes of bad luck early on, the latter causing him to fall. That seemed to put him off the game if his subsequent form is anything to go by but he was rated 162 at that point so the handicapper has given him a real chance (147 here) if the old enthusiasm (if he ever had any!) can be rekindled. I meant to back him yesterday at teatime but was working on getting my figures and thoughts typed out and by the time I went to back him later in the evening he was blue and single figures across the board. I'm surprised he's showing at the price again but would be sick if I missed the opportunity.
    Great run for the money. Thought I had it after two out.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #1009
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    4/1 was a helluva price for Protektorat
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #1010
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    4/1 was a helluva price for Protektorat
    Such an important race/market to analyse.

    I backed Third Time Lucki because I knew he was better than his oppo despite doubts about maybe the ground and him being fresh and also tactics but I also knew he would trade much shorter than 3 IR and of course he did.

    I knew my IA bet was cooked when the ground softened and I tried to protect (gettit!!) the bet by backing Native River and Sam Brown. However in doing so I ignored my chief punting mantra CLASS WILL OUT.

    A very bad day somewhat rescued at least by Conflated.

  12. #1011
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    My strongest fancy for tomorrow is Metier (7/2) in the last at Sandown. Hard to believe this gets to run in a handicap off just 144. I noticed it was 9/2 this afternoon and 4/1 earlier this evening and was going to hold off till the morning but it's shortened again. The Tolworth form hasn't worked out well but he was only 11/2 second favourite to Appreciate It in the Supreme and clearly didn't run his race with the stable out of form at the time. He looked all over a 150+ animal in the Tolworth and likely to develop into a 160-ish in his second-season hence my keenness on him off this mark.
    Wow, I really wasn't expecting the jockey to apply the handbrake going to two out. He did pull a bit in the first mile but that was shocking.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. #1012
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Decent renewal of the Peterborough today but I can't see past AMK. Should be odds-on and I reckon 6/5 is buying money.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #1013
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    7.30 Southwell-Redzone @ 3-1 [Bet 365]

    Won on Tapeta last week
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

  15. #1014
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    Zarzyni 4.30S
    ew 8/1 (4 places) Betfair

  16. #1015
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    It's been along time coming but Nicky Henderson seems to have found a winning chance fore Call Me Lord at Uttoxeter

    The trip looks ideal in the soft ground and the opposition moderate.

    First bet of the day has to be harry and Dan in the first with her mares allowance..Get a Tonic can bring in some dough to have af ree bet on Call Me lord
    Formely Fist of Fury

  17. #1016
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    Virgin Snow 5.30S
    9/1 Betfair

  18. #1017
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlaceBacker View Post
    7.30 Southwell-Redzone @ 3-1 [Bet 365]

    Won on Tapeta last week
    Wins
    "The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"

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  20. #1018
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I like the chances of Anthony Honeyball's Fanfaron Dino in the heavy ground today.

    It's not a great race and he has chaser written all over him

    Had an EW bet and if only placed my loss will be a fiver so hopefully I will get a run for my money and he'll come in first
    Formely Fist of Fury

  21. #1019
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I like the chances of Anthony Honeyball's Fanfaron Dino in the heavy ground today.

    It's not a great race and he has chaser written all over him

    Had an EW bet and if only placed my loss will be a fiver so hopefully I will get a run for my money and he'll come in first
    Formely Fist of Fury

  22. #1020
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Everything but Shaka King is on the drift..a few quid for an interest
    Formely Fist of Fury

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