The 2021 Grand National

[HawkWing]

Tiger Roll awarded 4Lb less than last year.
Bristol De Mai awarded 1Lb less than last year.
Anibale Fly awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Beware The Bear awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Aso awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Chris's Dream awarded 4Lb more than last year.
Alpha Des Obeaux awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Jett awarded 9Lb less than last year.
Magic Of Light awarded 2Lb less than last year.
The Story Teller awarded 7Lb more than last year.
Ballyoptic awarded 1Lb more than last year.
Talkischeap awarded 2Lb less than last year.
Yala Enki awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Burrows saint same weight as last year.
Definitely Red awarded 2Lb more than last year.
OK Corral awarded 4Lb less than last year.
Sub Lieutenant awarded 9Lb less than last year.
Tout Est Permis same weight as last year.
Crievehill awarded 14Lb less than last year...6Lb wrong if he gets in
Lake View Lad awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Acapella Bourgeois awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Any Second Now same weight as last year.
Champagne Classic awarded 1Lb less than last year.
Potters Corner awarded 3Lb less than last year.
Shattered Love awarded 2Lb less than last year.
Death Duty awarded 7lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.
Dounikos awarded 13Lb less than last year. 9Lb wrong if he gets in.
Double Shuffle awarded 5Lb less than last year. 1Lb wrong if he gets in.
Kimberlite Candy awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Valtor awarded 8Lb less than last year. 4Lb wrong if he gets in.
Class Conti same weight as last year.
Give Me A Copper same weight as last year.
Lord Du Mesnil awarded 2Lb more than last year.
Takingrisks awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Hogon Height's same weight as last year.
Cabaret Queen awarded 3Lb more than last year.
A Toi Phil awarded 4Lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.

It would appear, the handicapper has given with one hand and cleverley taken away with the other...mostly to the Irish, or McManus plots.

Anibale Fly was the one that jumped out at me. Not sure if Martin still has his magic.

[Maxbet]

Anibale Fly was the one that jumped out at me. Not sure if Martin still has his magic.

I backed it last week...Didn't get as much of a drop as I expected...blatantly been schooling for 3 years and the handicapper knows it....think the age allowed the leniency from the handicapper...

[Maxbet]

That's the utopian scenario.

Don't get me wrong. As someone who, in the past, has backed Crisp, Lord Gyllene, Mr Frisk, etc, I love these front-running types but everybody knows how Cloth Cap is going to run. The likes of Gigginstown only need to run a couple of non-stayers prominently and harry him at every fence to make him over-race. If that happens the ba's up on the slates.

The new favourite...

[Maxbet]

Tiger Roll awarded 4Lb less than last year.
Bristol De Mai awarded 1Lb less than last year.
Anibale Fly awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Beware The Bear awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Aso awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Chris's Dream awarded 4Lb more than last year.
Alpha Des Obeaux awarded 7Lb less than last year.
Jett awarded 9Lb less than last year.
Magic Of Light awarded 2Lb less than last year.
The Story Teller awarded 7Lb more than last year.
Ballyoptic awarded 1Lb more than last year.
Talkischeap awarded 2Lb less than last year.
Yala Enki awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Burrows saint same weight as last year.
Definitely Red awarded 2Lb more than last year.
OK Corral awarded 4Lb less than last year.
Sub Lieutenant awarded 9Lb less than last year.
Tout Est Permis same weight as last year.
Crievehill awarded 14Lb less than last year...6Lb wrong if he gets in
Lake View Lad awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Acapella Bourgeois awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Any Second Now same weight as last year.
Champagne Classic awarded 1Lb less than last year.
Potters Corner awarded 3Lb less than last year.
Shattered Love awarded 2Lb less than last year.
Death Duty awarded 7lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.
Dounikos awarded 13Lb less than last year. 9Lb wrong if he gets in.
Double Shuffle awarded 5Lb less than last year. 1Lb wrong if he gets in.
Kimberlite Candy awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Valtor awarded 8Lb less than last year. 4Lb wrong if he gets in.
Class Conti same weight as last year.
Give Me A Copper same weight as last year.
Lord Du Mesnil awarded 2Lb more than last year.
Takingrisks awarded 3Lb more than last year.
Hogon Height's same weight as last year.
Cabaret Queen awarded 3Lb more than last year.
A Toi Phil awarded 4Lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.

It would appear, the handicapper has given with one hand and cleverly taken away with the other...mostly to the Irish, or McManus plots.

Alan Crowhurst reads this forum....

https://www.racingpost.com/news/2021...ce-2020/473747

[Desert Orchid]

I've had another dip in the shark-infested market to add to Beware The Bear and Jett:

Burrows Saint 25/1 - I haven't checked the form yet and really only backed this one at this stage with a view to getting on the right side of a potential gamble, although I do suspect he could be potentially very well in, something I'll touch on in due course once I've done my first trawl of the ratings. Impressive in the Irish National a couple of seasons ago, there was talk of the Gold Cup at one point after that for the horse. He was potentially a winner last year or at least an overall improver and possibly open to further improvement with age. He's also still lightly raced and, given the trainer, is the type to attract support from casual punters. In similar vein, he's the type likely to appeal to trend-followers and could attract the occasional misguided headline as a result, leading to a shortening in price.

Edit - mega brain fart...

The foregoing re Burrows Saint is still on the back burner in terms of committing to a bet although the rationale is accurate. I had just backed B Saint on the brother's behalf, which is why it was on my mind.

The one I actually backed and meant to post is Any Second Now 25/1. Hacked up at the Festival and was heavily backed for the National subsequently, if memory serves, from 33/1 into single figures or near enough. 33/1 wasn't available yesterday and it seems to be shortening today.

[Diamond Geezer]

Alan Crowhurst reads this forum....

https://www.racingpost.com/news/2021...ce-2020/473747

Alan Crowhurst is a photographer

[Desert Orchid]

Copied from the Longshot thread:

Grand National - Lord Du Mesnil 50/1 NRNB (Paddy Power/Betfair)

He was one of my ante-post bets last year, also 50s NRNB, despite my aversion to 7yos in the race. He would have been 6lbs well in. I backed him on the eve of the Haydock National Trial in anticipation of a win but he went up 6lbs for being a good second. He then ran into a serious tool in Ravenhill in the NH Chase. He's now a second-season chaser and entitled to improve but they've kept him quiet, presumably to preserve his mark. In fact, he's back down to 149 so likely to be right at the bottom of the weights and should qualify so he can win tomorrow's renewal if he likes as he won't pick up a penalty. A win, or even a good run, will see his mark go back up again and he'll be that much well in again come April. He was reportedly stressed after the Welsh National so I presume something was amiss.

[Desert Orchid]

I've gone in again, more heavily, on Lord du Mesnil at 40/1 without the NRNB concession. I reckon only mishap will prevent him from running in the race and I'll be very surprised if he goes up any less than 8lbs for today's win. I reckon once it becomes common knowledge that he is those 8lbs or maybe even 9lbs well in the money will come for him. He really should be a 10/1 NRNB shot but you can still get 25/1.

Over the next few weeks more like him will emerge.

Next Saturday there's the big 3m Kempton handicap. The Grimthorpe at Doncaster should be coming up soon too. Then there's the Ultima, the Cross-country, the Foxhunters, Kim Muir and the NH Chase, plus whatever other staying chases are open to horses currently rated at least 144 up and down the country.

And that's before we even start on the Irish races.

How many of them will pick up 8/9lbs rises along the way we will have to see but for me it isn't hard to imagine that Lord Du Mesnil arrives at Aintree the best handicapped horse in the race on prevalent official ratings.

That alone should put him in the front five of the betting.

He did put in a couple of iffy jumps today but never really looked like falling and he might be the type to really take to the fences. There's a fair chance he will stay the trip too as he was starting to go away again from Achille nearing the line today and I like prominent runners in the National itself.

[Truncheon]

It is so blatantly obvious that Tiger Roll is being jobbed for the 2022 Grand National

Looks like the aim is to get his weight down to 11st 3ish next year

[jinnyj]

Personally I felt he stopped a bit quick after travelling nicely and his stride seemed to shorten a bit. They mentioned he was slightly lame after Cheltenham cross country when he pulled up. I would be a little concerned and ponderous now about his participation. He won’t be risked if everything isn’t 100%.

[HawkWing]

Personally I felt he stopped a bit quick after travelling nicely and his stride seemed to shorten a bit. They mentioned he was slightly lame after Cheltenham cross country when he pulled up. I would be a little concerned and ponderous now about his participation. He won’t be risked if everything isn’t 100%.

Id agree with that. Checked out very tamely. Looks gone to me.

[Desert Orchid]

I wouldn't read anything into today's run, not even his tame finish. He travelled well enough for long enough to hint that all the ability is still there. I thought the jockey was just looking after him from three out having decided 'job done'.

They can't do anything about his National weight for this season and his hopes for next season will surely depend on how he goes in the Cross-Country, which they've been adamant is his main target for this season.

[granger]

The idea of plotting him for 2022 is way off

[HawkWing]

I wouldn't read anything into today's run, not even his tame finish. He travelled well enough for long enough to hint that all the ability is still there. I thought the jockey was just looking after him from three out having decided 'job done'.

They can't do anything about his National weight for this season and his hopes for next season will surely depend on how he goes in the Cross-Country, which they've been adamant is his main target for this season.

He won the race when being prepped for his second win. He isn't remotely in the same form.

Also, i'd have it at 1/100 that he will be retired after Aintree.

[jinnyj]

Gordon not said much yet but jockey said he hated the ground. Make of that what you will.

[HawkWing]

Gordon not said much yet but jockey said he hated the ground. Make of that what you will.

Said the same after last years cross-country. Valid reason given how the horses are finishing today.

[Truncheon]

The idea of plotting him for 2022 is way off

We'll see

Remember he was jobbed for 2 years after winning the Triumph

[Slim]

It was embarrassing how badly he finished. That horse is finished.

[Maruco]

Maybe he's finished, but they wouldn't have wanted to leave the XC behind after three mile slog over hurdles. Almost certainly Keith would have been told to look after him in that ground.

Who knows either way apart from a small number of people, but you'd hardly be rushing to back him right now when he has so much to prove. What I will say is if he lines up you'd be sure he's okay and they think he's going there with a chance, otherwise they'd buy time and save him for the National.

I've got him as minimal cover for my position on Easysland in multiples and RAB's, so I'll hold for now and wait for the drums to start beating one way or the other.

[Diamond Geezer]

TR wasn't wearing usual blinkers a sign they weren't really trying too much.