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Thread: The 2021 Grand National

  1. #41
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    "The owls are not what they seem"

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    How does Cloth Cap not win that off 10st 5lb ?
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  3. #43
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I reckon a lot of people will think along the same lines, wilsonl, but I would want to take a step back before rushing to any conclusions.

    It's not so much that Cloth Cap must win but I'd want to check if I have something I rate higher getting weight off him!

    He should stay but there has to be a doubt that he'll keep on at the same pace as he did at Newbury over a mile further over bigger fences.
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  4. #44
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    It's not so much that Cloth Cap must win but I'd want to check if I have something I rate higher getting weight off him!

    He should stay but there has to be a doubt that he'll keep on at the same pace as he did at Newbury over a mile further over bigger fences.

    So do they just let him go....a whole fence clear, gets into a good rhythm, Jockey gets a breather in....

    Won't need to go hell to leather...

    2Lb off bottom weight....

    Everything below Agusta Gold is out the handicap....
    Last edited by Maxbet; 16th February 2021 at 1:43 PM.

  5. #45
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    That's the utopian scenario.

    Don't get me wrong. As someone who, in the past, has backed Crisp, Lord Gyllene, Mr Frisk, etc, I love these front-running types but everybody knows how Cloth Cap is going to run. The likes of Gigginstown only need to run a couple of non-stayers prominently and harry him at every fence to make him over-race. If that happens the ba's up on the slates.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th February 2021 at 1:46 PM.
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  6. #46
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Official rating, GNR, (Difference), weight...

    Santini 170 167 (-3)...11-10
    Bristol de Mai 169 167 (-2)...11-10
    Easysland 167 167 (0)...11-10
    Presenting Percy 168 166 (-2)...11-09
    Tiger Roll 168 166 (-2)...11-09
    The Storyteller 162 165 (+3)...11-08
    Chris's Dream 164 164 (0)...11-07
    Battleoverdoyen 160 162 (+2)...11-08
    Yala Enki 161 160 (-1)...11-03
    Ballyoptic 158 158 (0)...11-01
    Definitly Red 158 158 (0)...11-01
    Lake View Lad 162 157 (-5)...11-00
    Magic of Light 158 156 (-2)...10-13
    Burrows Saint 156 156 (0)...10-13
    Ajas 145 156 (+11)...10-13
    Acapella Bourgeois 155 155 (0)...10-12
    Aso 155 155 (0)...10-12
    Mister Malarky 155 155 (0)...10-12
    Talkischeap 155 155 (0)...10-12
    Tout Est Permis 153 155 (+2)...10-12
    Anibale Fly 152 155 (+3)...10-12
    Bellshill 153 153 (0)...10-10
    Beware The Bear 153 153 (0)...10-10
    Kimberlite Candy 153 153 (0)...10-10
    Pym 153 153 (0)...10-10
    Al Roc 152 152 (0)...10-09
    Any Second Now 151 152 (+1)...10-09
    Balko des Flos 151 152 (1)...10-09
    Alpha des Obeaux 145 152 (+7)...10-09
    Ok Corral 153 151 (-2)...10-08
    Champagne Classic 151 151 (0)...10-08
    Brahma Bull 150 151 (+1)...10-08
    Shattered Love 152 150 (-2)...10-07
    Jett 150 150 (0)...10-07
    Takingrisks 150 150 (0)...10-07
    The Jam Man 150 150 (0)...10-07
    Articulum 145 150 (+5)...10-07
    Class Conti 149 149 (0)...10-06
    Lord du Mesnil 149 149 (0)...10-06
    Potters Corner 149 149 (0)...10-06
    The Conditional 149 149 (0)...10-06
    Milan Native 147 149 (+2)...10-06
    Cloth Cap 148 148 (0)...10-05
    Minellacelebration 148 148 (0)...10-05
    Robin des Foret 148 148 (0)...10-05
    Vieux Lion Rouge 148 148 (0)...10-05
    Cabaret Queen 147 148 (+1)...10-05
    Canelo 147 147 (0)...10-04
    Glen Forsa 147 147 (0)...10-04
    Give Me A Copper 146 147 (+1)...10-04
    The Long Mile 145 147 (+2)...10-04
    Agusta Gold 146 146 (0)...10-03
    Farclas 146 146 (0)...10-03
    Hogan's Height 146 146 (0)...10-03
    Sub Lieutenant 146 146 (0)...10-03
    Minella Times 140 146 (+6)...10-03
    .................................................. ..........
    All below this line will carry a minimum of 10-03 assuming one of the top weights stays put, irrespective of how many come out above them..

    Ami Desbois 145 145 0
    Blaklion 145 145 0
    Double Shuffle 145 145 0
    Gold Present 145 145 0
    Keeper Hill 145 145 0
    Moyhenna 145 145 0
    Death Duty 144 144 0
    Secret Reprieve 144 144 0
    Some Neck 142 144 +2
    Rocky's Treasure 143 143 0
    Saturnas * 143 142 -1
    Cap du Nord 142 142 0
    Fagan 142 142 0
    Golan Fortune 142 142 0
    Jerrysback 142 142 0
    Kauto Riko 142 142 0
    Storm Control 142 142 0
    Valtor 142 142 0
    Deise Aba 142 142 0
    Run Wild Fred 144 140 -4
    Another Venture 140 140 0
    Captain Drake 140 140 0
    Crievehill 140 140 0
    The Hollow Ginge 140 140 0
    Le Breuil 140 139 -1
    Fitzhenry 139 139 0
    Flying Angel 139 139 0
    Prime Venture 139 139 0
    A Toi Phil 141 138 -3
    Dounikos 140 138 -2
    Roaring Bull 139 138 -1
    Achille 138 138 0
    Hold The Note 138 138 0
    Plan of Attack 137 138 +1
    Musical Slave 137 137 0
    Soupy Soups 137 137 0
    Treacysenniscorthy 137 137 0
    Shantou Flyer 137 136 -1
    Beau Bay 136 136 0
    Hear No Evil 130 136 6
    Monbeg Notorious 135 135 0
    Saint Xavier 137 134 -3
    Aforementioned 136 134 -2
    Fingerontheswitch 132 132 0
    One Style 129 132 +3
    Bellow Mome 136 131 -5
    Last edited by Maxbet; 16th February 2021 at 3:36 PM.

  7. #47
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    Jett a very interesting purchase by Waley-Cohens.
    He has run very impressively more than once in top company and has a big race in him.
    Sam rides Aintree as well as anyone and should suit the horse.

  8. #48
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    My Alpha Des shout is dead in the water

  9. #49
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edgt View Post
    Jett a very interesting purchase by Waley-Cohens.
    He has run very impressively more than once in top company and has a big race in him.
    Sam rides Aintree as well as anyone and should suit the horse.
    Amateur jockeys are no longer permitted to ride in Britain after the BHA released a number of changes to the race programme.

    British racing's governing body confirmed that hunter chases would be taking place this season, but only professional jockeys or conditionals will be allowed to ride.

    The decisions have been taken by the racing industry's Covid-19 steering group which includes representatives from racecourses and horsemen.

    Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
    Licence
    Amateur
    Lowest riding weight in last 12 months
    9-13


    Needs the ban lifting first...

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  11. #50
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edgt View Post
    Jett a very interesting purchase by Waley-Cohens.
    He has run very impressively more than once in top company and has a big race in him.
    Sam rides Aintree as well as anyone and should suit the horse.
    Didn't realise the W-Cs had bought him. He was one that i made a written not of to double check. Potentially well-in.
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  12. #51
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    A quick comparison with RPRs has me thinking nothing stands out as being well in, although I think those RPRs are based on current form so once older form is taken into consideration maybe something else will look better handicapped.

    I'm more than happy with my 100/1 about Beware The Bear. On my own figures he is very, very well handicapped and 10-10 strikes me as a nice weight.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. #52
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    A quick comparison with RPRs has me thinking nothing stands out as being well in, although I think those RPRs are based on current form so once older form is taken into consideration maybe something else will look better handicapped.

    I'm more than happy with my 100/1 about Beware The Bear. On my own figures he is very, very well handicapped and 10-10 strikes me as a nice weight.
    7Lb less than the handicapper gave him for last years non-event!
    Last edited by Maxbet; 16th February 2021 at 3:42 PM.

  14. #53
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    My Alpha Des shout is dead in the water
    7Lb less than the handicapper gave him for last years non-event!

  15. #54
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    Milan native 50/1 last years kim Muir winner.had breathing op and goes straight to national. 10.6 looks nice.

  16. #55
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edgt View Post
    Jett a very interesting purchase by Waley-Cohens.
    He has run very impressively more than once in top company and has a big race in him.
    Sam rides Aintree as well as anyone and should suit the horse.
    Decided to have a nibble at 66/1 to 5 places. Gave Alpha Des Obeaux 7lbs and a beating last season, gets 2lbs in this.

    If this has been the target since his good run behind Delta Work in the Irish Gold Cup, it would explain his poor form this season.

    It would be nice if Sam could ride but if it's not to be it's not to be.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  17. #56
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Tiger Roll awarded 4Lb less than last year.
    Bristol De Mai awarded 1Lb less than last year.
    Anibale Fly awarded 7Lb less than last year.
    Beware The Bear awarded 7Lb less than last year.
    Aso awarded 7Lb less than last year.
    Chris's Dream awarded 4Lb more than last year.
    Alpha Des Obeaux awarded 7Lb less than last year.
    Jett awarded 9Lb less than last year.
    Magic Of Light awarded 2Lb less than last year.
    The Story Teller awarded 7Lb more than last year.
    Ballyoptic awarded 1Lb more than last year.
    Talkischeap awarded 2Lb less than last year.
    Yala Enki awarded 3Lb more than last year.
    Burrows saint same weight as last year.
    Definitely Red awarded 2Lb more than last year.
    OK Corral awarded 4Lb less than last year.
    Sub Lieutenant awarded 9Lb less than last year.
    Tout Est Permis same weight as last year.
    Crievehill awarded 14Lb less than last year...6Lb wrong if he gets in
    Lake View Lad awarded 3Lb more than last year.
    Acapella Bourgeois awarded 3Lb more than last year.
    Any Second Now same weight as last year.
    Champagne Classic awarded 1Lb less than last year.
    Potters Corner awarded 3Lb less than last year.
    Shattered Love awarded 2Lb less than last year.
    Death Duty awarded 7lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.
    Dounikos awarded 13Lb less than last year. 9Lb wrong if he gets in.
    Double Shuffle awarded 5Lb less than last year. 1Lb wrong if he gets in.
    Kimberlite Candy awarded 3Lb more than last year.
    Valtor awarded 8Lb less than last year. 4Lb wrong if he gets in.
    Class Conti same weight as last year.
    Give Me A Copper same weight as last year.
    Lord Du Mesnil awarded 2Lb more than last year.
    Takingrisks awarded 3Lb more than last year.
    Hogon Height's same weight as last year.
    Cabaret Queen awarded 3Lb more than last year.
    A Toi Phil awarded 4Lb less than last year. 2Lb wrong if he gets in.

    It would appear, the handicapper has given with one hand and cleverly taken away with the other...mostly to the Irish, or McManus plots.
    Last edited by Maxbet; 16th February 2021 at 7:01 PM.

  18. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    Amateur jockeys are no longer permitted to ride in Britain after the BHA released a number of changes to the race programme.

    British racing's governing body confirmed that hunter chases would be taking place this season, but only professional jockeys or conditionals will be allowed to ride.

    The decisions have been taken by the racing industry's Covid-19 steering group which includes representatives from racecourses and horsemen.

    Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
    Licence
    Amateur
    Lowest riding weight in last 12 months
    9-13


    Needs the ban lifting first...
    Could he turn pro in order to ride in this?? Presumably would have to renege amateur status for a while afterwards.... but he wouldn't be missing out on much/anything for the following 6 months??

    Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk

  19. #58
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlelad View Post
    Could he turn pro in order to ride in this?? Presumably would have to renege amateur status for a while afterwards.... but he wouldn't be missing out on much/anything for the following 6 months??

    Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
    yes, I am sure I have read of one already turning conditional in order to get round it!

  20. #59
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Puppy Power was lined up to ride Jett in last year's Galway Plate so imagine he will have the ride as Magic Saint was ridden by Paddy Kennedy in the GN in 2019 when Puppy rode for Gordon Elliott.
    Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 16th February 2021 at 4:52 PM.
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  21. #60
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    yes, I am sure I have read of one already turning conditional in order to get round it!
    Paul Nicholls's amateur claimer Angus Chileda went pro in order to keep riding.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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