It’s not time to come out of hibernation just yet, but the 2021 flat turf season is only about 8 weeks away and a market is already available for the First Season Sires competition. Below are some early prices with the number of mares covered (as reported in the 2019 edition of Return of Mares).
9/4 Profitable 175 mares covered
5/2 Cotai Glory 171 mares covered
11/4 Caravaggio 193 mares covered
9/2 El Kabeir 146 mares covered
8/1 Ribchester 142 mares covered
14/1 Highland Reel 161 mares covered
14/1 Aclaim 146 mares covered
20/1 Galileo Gold 132 mares covered
As I’ve said before the RoM figures can be confusing as just because a sire covered a lot of mares doesn’t mean there will be a lot of 2yos representing that sire: however it is a good indication. Once we have some figures of actual 2yos they’ll be listed.
There are number of big number FSS’s not included in this betting market and perhaps the biggest surprise is Churchill (190). However there is also Ardad (126), Time Test (103) and Ullysees (110). There are other FSS whose produce will be of interest such as Almanzor and Decorated Knight.
Last years champion Mehmas was a record breaker. He only ran as a 2yo and though that can’t be an indicator it does seem important for a likely champion to have been a good 2yo. Of course Mehmas was also the FSS who had the most 2yos running for him. Given that I can understand Profitable being favourite but he wasn’t a really good 2yo.
All these FSS have to have their produce running against the most consistent supplier of 2yo winners and that is Kodiac (228 mares). He is now joined by Mehmas’s 2nd crop (166) so with these two big hitters pickings may be slim for some of this years FSS.
If anyone has any other betting lists or data on actual foals (now 2yos) on the ground please add that information.