The National and the juvenile hurdle probably the two races of the day.
The National and the juvenile hurdle probably the two races of the day.
Kempton wouldn’t surprise me. I’m half hour away and it’s f****ng freezing outside
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
Yes, but even his previous best didn't entitle him to win the way he did. He was held up off a fast pace and came through as the others hit their wall.Originally Posted by Outsider
I won't mind if he wins as I took the 20/1 midweek but that's just to cover the chance that the official handicapper has judged him accurately. I'm not convinced but I'm open-minded enough to accept the possibility.
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Outsider (9th January 2021)
Wouldn't be difficult.
Apart from those two races the prize money is pish. I can't see many hoses busting a gut for the money on offer in the other races.
A Relkeel Hurdle worth only £17k to the winner?
A Lanzarote worth only £16?
Even if I had a horse good enough to win one of those races I'd skip it on a point of principle.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th January 2021 at 11:28 PM.
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Slim (8th January 2021)
Borrowed from another
3:10 Chepstow – Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
This famous National’s roll of honour is packed full of famous stayers including Synchronised, Native River and Elegant Escape over the last ten years alone. It’s also a race where there are plenty of solid trends to refer to when looking for the winner.
Firstly, the 10/10 trends in terms of the last decade’s winners start with all having had two or more runs in the current season and, as an extension of this, all having run within the last 49 days. Only one of the runners hasn’t run in that period of time – Truckers Lodge – but there are a fair few who have not had the two runs yet this season and are banking on freshness helping them, including the likes of Dominateur, Springfield Fox, Big River, Prime Venture and Bobo Mac.
Another set of perfect trends refers to a horse’s chasing experience – all of the last ten winners have run at least five times over fences, something only Springfield Fox falls foul of here, but those ten winners also had won at least twice over the larger obstacles as well. Favourite, Secret Reprieve, may be well-in, but he’s only got the one win over fences to his name, as do Captain Drake, Prime Venture and Bobo Mac.
Age-wise, recent runnings of the race have skewed the stats somewhat with eleven and 13-year-old winners in the last five years, but the 6-8yo age range still contributes 70% of the last decade’s winners and that’s still the best bunch to focus on as it features the unexposed sorts who are still improving and have the required experience for a race of this nature. Most of the horses running in this year’s renewal do fit into that bracket, but veterans Vieux Lion Rouge, Joe Farrell, Yala Enki, Big River, Prime Venture and Bobo Mac miss out on a point here.
Apart from the three I mentioned at the top of the article, who were all Graded-class horses running in a handicap, all the other winners of the race have carried 10st 10lb or less to victory and that’s no big surprise given the prevailing conditions that traditionally accompany this race. With none of Yala Enki, Truckers Lodge, Ramses De Teillee or Lord Du Mesnil looking to be in the same class as those aforementioned horses to win carrying more, it’s a black mark for them, as well as Moyhenna, Cloudy Glen, Vieux Lion Rouge and The Hollow Ginge, who carry just over the 10st 10lb threshold.
While sometimes the weight carried is relative to the class of the other horses in the field, the ratings paint a similar picture – bar those three winners, all the others were rated from 145 down to 128, so points are given from Cloudy Glen down to Calipso Collonges in racecard order.
Finally, while many handicap chases over extreme trips spring surprises as a regular occurrence, this race seems to be swimming against that particular tide, with only two winners in the last decade having an SP of more than 10/1 – even then, they were no bigger than 20/1. Therefore, it’s definitely wise to focus on those towards the head of the market, including favourite, Secret Reprieve, Springfield Fox, Truckers Lodge, Christmas In April, Yala Enki and The Two Amigos, who all have quotes of 10/1 or less in the markets at the time of writing.
Shortlist:
THE TWO AMIGOS – 8/8
Secret Reprieve – 7/8
Christmas In April – 7/8
Cloudy Glen – 6/8
Conclusion:
Just one horse bullseyes all eight of our key trends this year and Nicky Martin’s THE TWO AMIGOS is the headline selection for the shortlist. Last seen chasing home the ante post favourite for this race, Secret Reprieve (more on him in a sec), in the Welsh Grand National Trial, this consistent eight-year-old was in fact fifth in the race last year from exactly the same mark that he’ll race off this year – 142. Experience of this type of scenario and a love of very soft ground is invaluable for the Welsh National and you’ll certainly get a run for your money with this solid-jumping front runner. Looking at the pace maps for this race, it’s even possible that he could get something of a freebie out on the front, with only Yala Enki really to keep him company. Although THE TWO AMIGOS was seven and a half lengths behind that rival last year, there’s a 4lb swing in the weights in his favour (plus a 14lb swing with the second, Truckers Lodge and a 4lb swing with the fourth, Prime Venture), so he looks an incredibly solid bet to go well again after showing himself to be in excellent form in his two placed runs this season so far.
Secret Reprieve was very impressive in that Grand National Trial and is a confirmed heavy-ground loving stayer for Evan Williams. He gets in here with just a 4lb penalty for that and is effectively 8lb well in, so there is every chance that he will go in again, as the market suggests. He may not have that much experience or winning form in terms of past Welsh National winners, but he’s hugely unexposed and looks to be suited by this kind of race, even if the extra six furlongs is an unknown for the six-year-old. Still, he carries very little weight and if he jumps well, he’ll be hard to keep out of the frame in the famous Rucker colours.
Colin Tizzard has won two of the last four runnings of this and his representative this year is Christmas In April, who has already put plenty of solid form together in regional Nationals in the past 12 months. He won the Sussex National at Plumpton in January before taking February’s Devon National at Exeter in superb style from a mark of 129. He may be 7lb higher now, but a good second behind Cloudy Glen off 137 in the Southern National at Fontwell shows he’s still in good form from his higher mark and the handicapper has generously dropped him a pound since. He’s by Crillon, so the ground couldn’t be soft enough for him, and he jumps and stays, so off a light weight, he can play a hand.
Speaking of Cloudy Glen, he makes up our shortlist from the seven horses all level on six out of eight trends boxes ticked. He misses out on the weight and price trends, but only by fine margins, so he’s included here. Venetia Williams’ charge put in a superb performance to hammer Christmas In April in the Southern National when 12lb better off with that rival, but even though that swing in the weights could bring them much closer, there was a 13-length gap between the pair that day and he won on the bridle, having loads left close home, so he could well confirm the form despite the weights rise. Even though he disappointed a little when subsequently fifth from his new mark of 145 at Sandown Park next time in the London National, he leapt out to his left on multiple occasions and this return to a left-handed circuit should see him perform much better. He enjoys deep ground, is unexposed at this trip still and could well have more improvement under his bonnet at the age of seven for a trainer who knows how to ready a good one for these staying tests – Williams won this in 2015 with Emperor’s Choice and Cloudy Glen certainly has the scope and potential to be a better horse, so looks a big chance here.
Slim (9th January 2021)
I wonder is that being overlooked by punters.
Tom George said Lanzarote was worth more in 2002 when he won it than it is today
Just looked it up. The Lanzarote was worth £16 less in 1995...Tom George said Lanzarote was worth more in 2002 when he won it than it is today
That’s absolutely staggering.
Why’s the prize money dwindled so much? Is it cause of the amount of graded races now?
Still no idea how horses are going for half a million when most won’t even earn that in prize money throughout their career.
I think it's as much to do with there being less money around due to Covid. I think I read somewhere that tracks tend to reinvest gate money etc into prizes so they've been hit quite hard.
I checked the recent prize money earlier when I was studying the race. The last couple of years it was £26k to the winner, the couple of years before that it was £23k so to drop to £16k in one year is a lot.
It's sponsored by Ladbrokes so they're pretty much getting free advertising out of the sponsorship. The racecourse should have told them to fvck right off.
I don't think the punters are taking too much notice but it's certainly affected the amount of races I bet in. I've dropped from six or seven races on a Saturday (not counting the fun longshots) to two, three tops and find I'm sometimes not bothering at all with bets.
Races that were worth £20k are now worth maybe £16k, £50k now worth £26k.
Some of the bigger races are holding up well, eg the big 3m handicaps at Ascot and the middle-distance ones at Cheltenham. The form in these is holding up well. The lower value races are becoming non-triers' conventions.
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Slim (9th January 2021)
Get in.
Fair play DO nice touch
Desert Orchid (9th January 2021)
That would have won 20l if the saddle hadn't slipped. Handicapper can't put it up what he should.
Last edited by Slim; 9th January 2021 at 5:41 PM.
Can't be unhappy with that.
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Colin Phillips (9th January 2021), prince regent (10th January 2021)
Great for the winning connections but what a star Yala Enki is. Lumping top weight, ran an absolute blinder - again.
Vote Alfie!!!!
Yes, he was constantly catching my eye through the race. I look forward to seeing what kind of rating I end up with for him.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Used in isolation that's true.
Take Springfield Fox as an example. I bet him over hurdles last time and he looked a right good bet to turnover a fav that hadn't 'done it' yet. SF ran to his mark and was well beat by a progressive horse. I didn't see how this translated into being second fav for the Welsh National (he was backed from 14s after that run).
So trends are nice but at the end of the day the horse with two stone in hand usually wins
That's true, but trends can help find the one with two stones in hand as well. Some are blindingly obvious, others aren't.
I was surprised that Ayala Enkis price didn’t come in for the National. I assume that’s what he’s being aimed at.
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