Nope.
FWIW, it’s Llandinabo Lad. If he gets in here off 141 (current rating), I’d be very sweet on him. Big field and strong pace is what he needs......that, and Johnson to be claimed by Hobbs to ride something else.
Nope.
FWIW, it’s Llandinabo Lad. If he gets in here off 141 (current rating), I’d be very sweet on him. Big field and strong pace is what he needs......that, and Johnson to be claimed by Hobbs to ride something else.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 6th January 2021 at 6:46 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Exchange market now up, but very embryonic.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Desert Orchid (6th January 2021)
I've now managed to look at the sectionals and they paint a curious picture.
Purely on recorded overall times, the Adonis was slower than both the Dovecote won by Highway One O Two and Kingwell (transferred from Wincanton) won by Song For Someone.
On bare time ratings:
SFS 153 (new OR after the race 153, from 154)
H102 138 (146 from 135)
Solo 131 (+ wfa, 10lb?)
I timed the three races from when the leader was taking Hurdle 1 to the line. They tell another story and suggest that Solo's race must have been quite slow from the start to the hurdle because he was only two seconds slower than SFS over the trip from H1 to the line, and one second slower than H102 over the same trip.
It should also be noted that Solo was never asked a question at any stage while the others were hard at it from three out.
From three out to the line:
SFS: 1m 16s
Solo: 1m 17s
H102: 1m 18s
Solo carried a pound more than both SFS and H102 despite being a year younger.
I think, having watched the race again, that the connections of Solo's opponents probably had their money on the favourite and the jockeys' instructions were to let him win. I might let the runner-up Fujimoto Flyer off with that accusation. He was a strong second-favourite and raced a bit keenly. He gradually put five lengths between himself and the third from two out but Solo increased his lead by about five lengths on the run-in despite being eased.
As I said, Solo was a second slower than Song For Someone from three out to the line but would almost certainly have turned that round had he been asked any sort of question.
I think Nicholls said in his stable tour for this season that he wasn't ready for the Triumph, that he was still an entire at that point and that they decided to geld him and start from scratch. I thik that was when my thoughts first turned to the Betfair Hurdle for him.
First time up this season at Wincanton, he raced keenly through the first 12f of the race and was allowed pretty much to coast home thereafter, being entitled to need the run.
Then at Sandown I thought it was particularly conspicuous how easy Cobden was on him from two out, not asking much of a question as others made moves around him. Getting him dropped a chunk for that struck me 'job done'.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I think you'll be on your own betting him. There are so many sexier types in the race. You'll surely get 40/1.
Last edited by Slim; 6th January 2021 at 10:30 PM.
The answers aren't always in the form book.
I quoted General George Patten elsewhere recently:
'If we're all thinking the same thing then at least one of us isn't thinking.'
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 7th January 2021 at 12:11 AM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Yes but with big field handicaps full of horses disguising their ability, The Fat Man with one 'rated 157" and a burst balloon is not where I'll be looking.
The two I'm interested in have already been mentioned, Milkwood and Llandinabo Lad. I think they're both seriously well handicapped horses, and will win or go close.
Also if Fry sent Metier here off 149 you couldn't ignore it either. He wouldn't be going out to ruin the second favourite in the Supreme if he didn't think he could win off the mark. He's not an antepost bet though.
I can't support you with Solo either Maurice. I don'd disagree with your rationale, but you won't see the best of Solo until he sees a fence and goes up in trip. He's the typical juvenile that struggles in his second season. He was bought for fences and they won't over-face him now. Any racing this season is now just experience, and next season is when you'll get your payback.
Illegitimi non carborundum
He did travel ok today for a long way.
What the handicapper does is key.
I only caught the last half-mile yesterday and spent most of it willing on Boreham Bill for Marb, forgetting completely that Solo was even in the race, so I watched it all the way through last night.
I would be lying if I said I thought it was a promising run from Solo. Okay, he was never put in the race from a modest start but I would have wanted to see Cobden's ankles up at the horse's ears* before easing off.
I did notice a few shakes of the reins as they turned for home but he was well beaten by then. Nicholls will probably come out and say the horse the horse didn't stay, only got its flu jab a few days before and was a bit flat, he really expected a big run (having told us on Saturday morning the horse needed to come down a few pounds before he would be competitive), etc.
Then if/when he wins the Betfair he'll tell us they tweaked his wind, he really just came to himself in the last week or two, he always knew he was a class act, etc, etc.
As usual, though, I'll be mob-handed in the race on the day once the outsiders are pushed out and extra places kick in.
(* reminds of the old joke in a perfume shop - do you like your wife to wear something behind her ears? - Aye, her ankles!)
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 10th January 2021 at 11:02 AM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
The Fat Man is the biggest after timer in the game as you perfectly point out.