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Thread: The 2021 Betfair Hurdle Sun February 21st Newbury

  1. #221
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    I thought the 10 was already added in. I've not backed him yet but I think he is the most likely winner.
    Good work Slim
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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  3. #222
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    He could keep improving; family of Direct Route and Joe Mac with Sadlers Wells on both sides, he won going away.
    Well picked Slim.

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  5. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I was reading a trends page and the guy on there tipped Soaring Glory as well.
    Well done Slim.at least I made a profit thanks to Buzz finishing 5th.

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  7. #224
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    The Betfair has been a plot race going back to the days of Ryan Price.

    But I am pretty addicted to them
    I never think of things like that. I was dead impressed with SG at Chepstow and when he lined up at Newbury alongside Dusart I had Betfair's Supreme market up and was gonna back him if he ran well. Obviously ended up on Dusart instead. The plot for today never even occured to me when he was beat at Ascot.

  8. #225
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    Soaring Glory was an obvious one with only the ground being a little worry. If you couldn't find him upgrade your formbook.

    Now can we move on to solving Cheltenham handicaps, this race is dead to me.

  9. #226
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    I never think of things like that. I was dead impressed with SG at Chepstow and when he lined up at Newbury alongside Dusart I had Betfair's Supreme market up and was gonna back him if he ran well. Obviously ended up on Dusart instead. The plot for today never even occured to me when he was beat at Ascot.
    All the £100K+ handicaps are plot races, as are most of the £50k+ ones too.

    How often do we hear connections say after a big handicap when asked about future plans, "That was the plan"?

    For example, don't be surprised if NTD wins or goes very close next Saturday's Close Brothers (ex-RP) Chase with one whose form has been iffy for a while.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #227
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Soaring Glory was an obvious one with only the ground being a little worry. If you couldn't find him upgrade your formbook.

    Now can we move on to solving Cheltenham handicaps, this race is dead to me.
    It isn't the form book that requires upgrading. SG didn't have the form in the book to win. What he had was obvious potential. But so did many others. The first five were all 'potential' horses or improvers. There's no way of quantifying how much they'll improve in the race itself. It's all educated guesswork.

    Sometimes we guess right sometimes we guess wrong. All we can do is decide whether the odds on offer make the guess worth the risk.

    The race isn't 'dead' to me. I will use it to recoup losses.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 22nd February 2021 at 9:17 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  12. #228
    Senior Member an capall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Soaring Glory was an obvious one with only the ground being a little worry. If you couldn't find him upgrade your formbook.

    Now can we move on to solving Cheltenham handicaps, this race is dead to me.
    When they make your biopic I see a young Clint Eastwood in the lead role.
    "And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew.

    And that small head knew that Impaire Et Passe would win the Champion Hurdle."

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  14. #229
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    It isn't the form book that requires upgrading. SG didn't have the form in the book to win. It's all educated guesswork. Sometimes we guess right sometimes we guess wrong. All we can do is decide whether the odds on offer make the guess worth the risk.
    You Are right Do, there weren't any clues. The horse's that tie in with his form have since gone up in distance. As with most of Slims tips, they come from his astute ability to read the Market. There was a massive gamble on him in the days leading up to the postponed race, and that ran it's course, despite the other of their horses; Sky Pirate looking to be thrown in.

  15. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    SG didn't have the form in the book to win. What he had was obvious potential.
    Potential is where the value is in these handicaps. It's no coincidence that novices have such a good record in that race. So many horses were mentioned on this thread and most disgraced themselves.
    Last edited by Slim; 22nd February 2021 at 2:11 PM.

  16. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    You Are right Do, there weren't any clues. The horse's that tie in with his form have since gone up in distance. As with most of Slims tips, they come from his astute ability to read the Market. There was a massive gamble on him in the days leading up to the postponed race, and that ran it's course, despite the other of their horses; Sky Pirate looking to be thrown in.
    I mentioned the horse before Paul Kealy contracted the price. This was purely based on judging the horses potential.
    Last edited by Slim; 22nd February 2021 at 2:34 PM.

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  18. #232
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    The form will be very strong but a few of the jockeys should be lined up and shot for riding like idiots. The leader and those who chased him to start with. They were always going too fast. I'm a fan of NdB but wtf was he doing trying to come from so far back?
    Simon Rowlands's sectional analysis pretty much backs up my own impression:

    https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sec...ry-and-haydock
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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