The 2021 Betfair Hurdle Sun February 21st Newbury

[Desert Orchid]

[Desert Orchid]

Before today's race he said Solo 'needed to come down a few pounds to be competitive'.

That translates as 'he'll be running down the park today to get him down again ahead of Newbury'

Solo down 3lbs to 141.

I'm seriously tempted to say this is a good thing but for now I'll settle for nibbling away at the best prices and, if the opporchancity arises, top up on the day with the extra places and BOGs.

[Slim]

Solo down 3lbs to 141.

I'm seriously tempted to say this is a good thing but for now I'll settle for nibbling away at the best prices and, if the opporchancity arises, top up on the day with the extra places and BOGs.

I'll concede he's now interesting off 141.

[Marb]

Mack The Man was there or thereabouts in this event last year before being brought down.

He's not taken to fences at all.

The 158 rated Song for Someone was four lengths was behind him at Sandown just over a year ago. I guess he's still fairly handicapped on that form.

I'd want to see him in the final declarations before backing him.

It'd be touch and go whether he'd make the cut off 127.

After the latest chase defeats you'd want a good bulletin off his trainer going into this race.

[Grasshopper]

I'll concede he's now interesting off 141.

Someone is fishing for a fiver at 80 about Solo on the exchange. Can’t be you, as it’s only a fiver.

Granted, I am not seeing what Dessie does in this horse, but I wouldn’t be rushing to lay that price.

Dessie, a question for you.

I think your usual measure for this race, is that a horse needs to be about 9lbs ahead of its mark, to get in amongst it. Presumably it’s the Triumph run that gives you some confidence he can hit around 150?

[Desert Orchid]

Dessie, a question for you.

I think your usual measure for this race, is that a horse needs to be about 9lbs ahead of its mark, to get in amongst it. Presumably it’s the Triumph run that gives you some confidence he can hit around 150?

I kind of answered this in post #16 of the thread:

Not so much based on a specific run as on the trainer's MO.

While many people disagreed with it at the time, the handicapper allotted Solo a mark of 157 for the Adonis. I plan to check back on that form - I know it has worked out badly - and see how the sectionals went. Nicholls didn't appear to have a problem with it at the time and openly confirmed the horse as the best juvenile he'd had for a long time.

The previous year, Pic D'Orhy came over with a big reputation but ran moderately in the Triumph and the trainer went down the route of getting him handicapped for the Betfair Hurdle.

Both five-year-olds, they would have struggled in the Champion Hurdle, as horses of that age are wont to do, so the ultra-valuable Newbury race is the ideal target.

PDO started his UK career on 149, with Nicholls managing to get him to Newbury off 146 but the win was a narrow one. Those figures might seem close but 4yos are entitled to improve 10lbs into their second season.

Even if we assume Solo's 157 was 8lbs too high, he's now down to 144 and that could come down again if he runs modestly in the Lanzarote (PDO was campaigned at further ahead of Newbury).

With Irish horses highly unlikely to be allowed over, Solo can afford to come down several pounds as he's about seventh in the card at the moment with 24 runners max allowed. 130 was the bottom mark last year, with Irish runners in the race.

Whether I'll get the big price PDO was last year is another matter but I backed him ante-post at much shorter before going in again on the day with the BOG.

A similar scenario might occur here.

Needless to say, he won't be my only bet in the race!


Then in #26 I referred to the Adonis:

Purely on recorded overall times, the Adonis was slower than both the Dovecote won by Highway One O Two and Kingwell (transferred from Wincanton) won by Song For Someone.

On bare time ratings:

SFS 153 (new OR after the race 153, from 154)
H102 138 (146 from 135)
Solo 131 (+ wfa, 10lb?)

I timed the three races from when the leader was taking Hurdle 1 to the line. They tell another story and suggest that Solo's race must have been quite slow from the start to the hurdle because he was only two seconds slower than SFS over the trip from H1 to the line, and one second slower than H102 over the same trip.

It should also be noted that Solo was never asked a question at any stage while the others were hard at it from three out.

From three out to the line:

SFS: 1m 16s
Solo: 1m 17s
H102: 1m 18s

Solo carried a pound more than both SFS and H102 despite being a year younger.

I think, having watched the race again, that the connections of Solo's opponents probably had their money on the favourite and the jockeys' instructions were to let him win. I might let the runner-up Fujimoto Flyer off with that accusation. He was a strong second-favourite and raced a bit keenly. He gradually put five lengths between himself and the third from two out but Solo increased his lead by about five lengths on the run-in despite being eased.

As I said, Solo was a second slower than Song For Someone from three out to the line but would almost certainly have turned that round had he been asked any sort of question.

I think Nicholls said in his stable tour for this season that he wasn't ready for the Triumph, that he was still an entire at that point and that they decided to geld him and start from scratch. I thik that was when my thoughts first turned to the Betfair Hurdle for him.

First time up this season at Wincanton, he raced keenly through the first 12f of the race and was allowed pretty much to coast home thereafter, being entitled to need the run.

Then at Sandown I thought it was particularly conspicuous how easy Cobden was on him from two out, not asking much of a question as others made moves around him. Getting him dropped a chunk for that struck me 'job done'.

[Desert Orchid]

Just doing a wee trawl for info on when the weights are actually published (today?), I came across an interesting phenomenon.

Since 2010, of the 11 winners of the race, their next run was:

7 - Supreme
1 - Champion (Zarkandar)
1 - Top Novices' Hdle Aintree
1 - County
1 - (PDO) didn't run until chase debut the next season

On another day maybe Ciel De Neige (sorry, Slim!) might have taken in the County.

None of them won next time (as reflected in the step up in class for most).

But it illustrates the class of horse needed for this race these days.

[Desert Orchid]

Looking back for quotes, I found these from Cobden and Nicholls after the Adonis:

Nor do connections lack confidence, as Cobden told ITV4: "He's a beautiful horse. He's got it all really. He travels, jumps, and has got a great temperament for a colt. It's nice to be on him.

"It was so easy for him. He's got such a big stride and he's very genuine. I do feel privileged riding horses like this."

Nicholls added on Racing TV: "Undoubtedly he's a very smart horse. He's got more scope than Zarkandar and he's hugely exciting."

Zarkandar won the Betfair off 151 and was raised to 160 for it.

If Solo is thought at least in his ball park...

[Slim]

Weights are out today.

[Desert Orchid]

If Ballyandy stands his ground Solo will get to run off a very handy 10-10.

[Desert Orchid]

Have I mentioned recently that I quite fancy Solo for this race?

[Diamond Geezer]

Weights

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...-02-13/773860/

[Marb]

I'm wary to critisize you DO, as I remember when you tipped the winner of this exact race last year for the same trainer/owner as Solo, Pic D'orhy wasn't it?

There's no doubt Solo would have an interesting each way chance. However, I wouldn't say a horse that finished 12th, 5th and 4th on his last three starts was a certainty for a race like this, but I guess that's stating the bleeding obvious.

Elsewhere, I hope Ballyandy comes out as the weights rising would suit my early fancy Mack The Man, not least because he's number 46th in the waiting list!

[Grasshopper]

LLandinabo Lad also in off 141 and 10-10.

Will take my chances against Dessie's yoke.

[wilsonl]

While he did it easily, the subsequent form of the beaten horses in the Adonis is total garbage and they've been tailed off in class 4 maidens and the like.

I'd taken a big price for the Triumph about him before that run so had high hopes based on his French run before coming over but I ask myself what rating he'd get for this on all other runs if he hadn't put in that Adonis performance.

And I doubt it'd be as high as 141.

There are two ways of looking at the Triumph performance itself. One is that he didn't really handle the track and it is proving to be a decent renewal with Aspire Tower putting it up in open company and even the 4th home Navajo Pass since winning off 142 (albeit with a 7lb claim).

But then on the other hand he managed to beat four horses home, three of which were 100/1 and the other a 33/1 Mullins runner.

I wish you luck with it DO and I hope his price does collapse because he'd be a place lay for me if it did.

[Desert Orchid]

The Adonis sectionals put him in the same ball park as Song For Someone. I suspect that's why the handicapper put him on 157 for it.

If he's the donkey his subsequent form is making him out to be it's hard to imagine him even turning up at Newbury.

Nicholls has six (I think) likely to make the cut. If Cobden opts for something else my confidence will take a bit of a doing but that's all factored into the price, I suppose.

[HawkWing]

I've backed For Pleasure for the Supreme at 50s, just noticed that he has been left in with a Champion Hurdle entry. I'm not sure why Third Time Lucki is 8/1 for this, and For Pleasure is 25s. (He is receiving a pound for a 4l beating.)

[HawkWing]

The Adonis sectionals put him in the same ball park as Song For Someone. I suspect that's why the handicapper put him on 157 for it.

If he's the donkey his subsequent form is making him out to be it's hard to imagine him even turning up at Newbury.

Nicholls has six (I think) likely to make the cut. If Cobden opts for something else my confidence will take a bit of a doing but that's all factored into the price, I suppose.

Do you think it was with one eye on this, why he tanked in the Triumph?

[Desert Orchid]

Do you think it was with one eye on this, why he tanked in the Triumph?

I can't recall thinking it at the time so if I say, with hindsight, it's possible I'm open to accusations of backdating an opinion to suit the situation. There's certainly no mention of it in my immediate post-race notes but they were very bare at the time because my vision was very limited at the time (my eye op was the following week).

I do recall thinking when reading the Nicholls stable tour at the start of this season when he mentioned gelding the colt and starting "from scratch" that this race would probably be the aim. I then thought of what he'd said the previous season about PD'O and put two and two together, given it's the same owner.

Obviously there's a very big chance that I'm just letting my active imagination run riot with this horse but I'm having fun

[wilsonl]

Copied from my post on the Longshot thread...


I've landed on a 50/1 chance; Highway One o Two.

He was 3/3 in novice hurdles, culminating in a fairly impressive win in the Dovecote. That race is proving to offer much stronger form than the aforementioned Adonis with the third home Kid Commando taking the listed handicap at Ascot earlier this season off 136, the fourth home; Buzz running 3rd in the Welsh Champion before hosing up in an Ascot class 2 off 137 and then narrowly failing to back that up off 148 behind Not So Sleepy. Two places further back in 4th in that Not So Sleepy race was Benson, running off a mark of 137 having previously gone 3/3 so far this season, most recently with a listed handicap win at Ascot. Prior to that run of three successive wins Benson finished off last season by also running in the Dovecote - he finished 8th, 32 lengths behind Highway One o Two.

So of the Dovecote runners...

West Cork 2nd, beaten just over 4 lengths was highly thought by Skelton but hasn't run since
Kid Commando 3rd, beaten 7 1/2 lengths. Now rated 140
Buzz 4th, beaten 17 1/2 lengths. Entered here (also has a speculative entry in the Champion hurdle) off 152
Benson 7th, beaten 32 lengths. Now rated 137

That is strong form and entitles Highway One o Two to a mark in the region of high 140s at least and yet he gets in here off 141 and actually receives 11lb from Buzz having beaten him convincingly last time they met off levels. Buzz is currently fourth fav for this.

The downside - hence the price - is that he's had an aborted novice chase campaign after falling on debut (when fav to beat Hitman) and then unseating next time out.

His subsequent run over hurdles can surely be forgiven as they'd no doubt wanted to give him a confidence boosting run back over them before aiming to exploit a lenient mark.

He'll love the likely soft ground we get in February and 50/1 is a crazy price.