Page 2 of 12 FirstFirst 1234567 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 232

Thread: The 2021 Betfair Hurdle Sun February 21st Newbury

  1. #21
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Nope.

    FWIW, it’s Llandinabo Lad. If he gets in here off 141 (current rating), I’d be very sweet on him. Big field and strong pace is what he needs......that, and Johnson to be claimed by Hobbs to ride something else.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 6th January 2021 at 6:46 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  2. #22
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Exchange market now up, but very embryonic.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  3. #23
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Probably waiting for the weights.

    If penalties accrue after Jan 10th, I assume the weights will be out on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

    I've had Solo in mind for this since his seasonal debut. It was so bad they needed to be working on getting his mark down. They might run him on Saturday in the Lanzarote just to get another 3-5lbs off him.
    Solo is currently 32 on the machine, DO.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to Grasshopper For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (6th January 2021)

  5. #24
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Nope.

    FWIW, it’s Llandinabo Lad. If he gets in here off 141 (current rating), I’d be very sweet on him. Big field and strong pace is what he needs......that, and Johnson to be claimed by Hobbs to ride something else.
    Looks an interesting contender.

    It's a bit early for me to want to back anything but this horse is definately interesting.

  6. #25
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Not so much based on a specific run as on the trainer's MO.

    While many people disagreed with it at the time, the handicapper allotted Solo a mark of 157 for the Adonis. I plan to check back on that form - I know it has worked out badly - and see how the sectionals went. Nicholls didn't appear to have a problem with it at the time and openly confirmed the horse as the best juvenile he'd had for a long time.

    The previous year, Pic D'Orhy came over with a big reputation but ran moderately in the Triumph and the trainer went down the route of getting him handicapped for the Betfair Hurdle.

    Both five-year-olds, they would have struggled in the Champion Hurdle, as horses of that age are wont to do, so the ultra-valuable Newbury race is the ideal target.

    PDO started his UK career on 149, with Nicholls managing to get him to Newbury off 146 but the win was a narrow one. Those figures might seem close but 4yos are entitled to improve 10lbs into their second season.

    Even if we assume Solo's 157 was 8lbs too high, he's now down to 144 and that could come down again if he runs modestly in the Lanzarote (PDO was campaigned at further ahead of Newbury).

    With Irish horses highly unlikely to be allowed over, Solo can afford to come down several pounds as he's about seventh in the card at the moment with 24 runners max allowed. 130 was the bottom mark last year, with Irish runners in the race.

    Whether I'll get the big price PDO was last year is another matter but I backed him ante-post at much shorter before going in again on the day with the BOG.

    A similar scenario might occur here.

    Needless to say, he won't be my only bet in the race!
    I was on Ciege De Neige last year. The BSP of the winner still haunts me. 100/1.
    Last edited by Slim; 6th January 2021 at 8:02 PM.

  7. #26
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    While many people disagreed with it at the time, the handicapper allotted Solo a mark of 157 for the Adonis. I plan to check back on that form - I know it has worked out badly - and see how the sectionals went.
    I've now managed to look at the sectionals and they paint a curious picture.

    Purely on recorded overall times, the Adonis was slower than both the Dovecote won by Highway One O Two and Kingwell (transferred from Wincanton) won by Song For Someone.

    On bare time ratings:

    SFS 153 (new OR after the race 153, from 154)
    H102 138 (146 from 135)
    Solo 131 (+ wfa, 10lb?)

    I timed the three races from when the leader was taking Hurdle 1 to the line. They tell another story and suggest that Solo's race must have been quite slow from the start to the hurdle because he was only two seconds slower than SFS over the trip from H1 to the line, and one second slower than H102 over the same trip.

    It should also be noted that Solo was never asked a question at any stage while the others were hard at it from three out.

    From three out to the line:

    SFS: 1m 16s
    Solo: 1m 17s
    H102: 1m 18s

    Solo carried a pound more than both SFS and H102 despite being a year younger.

    I think, having watched the race again, that the connections of Solo's opponents probably had their money on the favourite and the jockeys' instructions were to let him win. I might let the runner-up Fujimoto Flyer off with that accusation. He was a strong second-favourite and raced a bit keenly. He gradually put five lengths between himself and the third from two out but Solo increased his lead by about five lengths on the run-in despite being eased.

    As I said, Solo was a second slower than Song For Someone from three out to the line but would almost certainly have turned that round had he been asked any sort of question.

    I think Nicholls said in his stable tour for this season that he wasn't ready for the Triumph, that he was still an entire at that point and that they decided to geld him and start from scratch. I thik that was when my thoughts first turned to the Betfair Hurdle for him.

    First time up this season at Wincanton, he raced keenly through the first 12f of the race and was allowed pretty much to coast home thereafter, being entitled to need the run.

    Then at Sandown I thought it was particularly conspicuous how easy Cobden was on him from two out, not asking much of a question as others made moves around him. Getting him dropped a chunk for that struck me 'job done'.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. #27
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    I think you'll be on your own betting him. There are so many sexier types in the race. You'll surely get 40/1.
    Last edited by Slim; 6th January 2021 at 10:30 PM.

  9. #28
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    I think he'll you be on your own betting him. There are so many sexier types in the race. You'll surely get 40/1.
    You know me, Slim. I'm happiest when I'm farting against thunder
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #29
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    You know me, Slim. I'm happiest when I'm farting against thunder
    Oh I wouldn't put you off one bit, you have your reasons. Anyone looking in the formbook will find many before him.

  11. #30
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    The answers aren't always in the form book.

    I quoted General George Patten elsewhere recently:

    'If we're all thinking the same thing then at least one of us isn't thinking.'

    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 7th January 2021 at 12:11 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  12. #31
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    Yes but with big field handicaps full of horses disguising their ability, The Fat Man with one 'rated 157" and a burst balloon is not where I'll be looking.

  13. #32
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,748
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    The two I'm interested in have already been mentioned, Milkwood and Llandinabo Lad. I think they're both seriously well handicapped horses, and will win or go close.

    Also if Fry sent Metier here off 149 you couldn't ignore it either. He wouldn't be going out to ruin the second favourite in the Supreme if he didn't think he could win off the mark. He's not an antepost bet though.

    I can't support you with Solo either Maurice. I don'd disagree with your rationale, but you won't see the best of Solo until he sees a fence and goes up in trip. He's the typical juvenile that struggles in his second season. He was bought for fences and they won't over-face him now. Any racing this season is now just experience, and next season is when you'll get your payback.

  14. #33
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    I can't support you with Solo either Maurice. I don'd disagree with your rationale, but you won't see the best of Solo until he sees a fence and goes up in trip. He's the typical juvenile that struggles in his second season. He was bought for fences and they won't over-face him now. Any racing this season is now just experience, and next season is when you'll get your payback.
    Pretty sure Nicholls said something similar last season about PDO. Before today's race he said Solo 'needed to come down a few pounds to be competitive'.

    That translates as 'he'll be running down the park today to get him down again ahead of Newbury'
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  15. #34
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    He did travel ok today for a long way.

  16. #35
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,748
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Pretty sure Nicholls said something similar last season about PDO. Before today's race he said Solo 'needed to come down a few pounds to be competitive'.

    That translates as 'he'll be running down the park today to get him down again ahead of Newbury'
    You could be right of course. I couldn't discount it. I ignored Pic D'orhy last year, and probably on the same basis.

  17. #36
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    What the handicapper does is key.

  18. #37
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    He did travel ok today for a long way.
    I only caught the last half-mile yesterday and spent most of it willing on Boreham Bill for Marb, forgetting completely that Solo was even in the race, so I watched it all the way through last night.

    I would be lying if I said I thought it was a promising run from Solo. Okay, he was never put in the race from a modest start but I would have wanted to see Cobden's ankles up at the horse's ears* before easing off.

    I did notice a few shakes of the reins as they turned for home but he was well beaten by then. Nicholls will probably come out and say the horse the horse didn't stay, only got its flu jab a few days before and was a bit flat, he really expected a big run (having told us on Saturday morning the horse needed to come down a few pounds before he would be competitive), etc.

    Then if/when he wins the Betfair he'll tell us they tweaked his wind, he really just came to himself in the last week or two, he always knew he was a class act, etc, etc.

    As usual, though, I'll be mob-handed in the race on the day once the outsiders are pushed out and extra places kick in.

    (* reminds of the old joke in a perfume shop - do you like your wife to wear something behind her ears? - Aye, her ankles!)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 10th January 2021 at 11:02 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  19. #38
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    The Fat Man is the biggest after timer in the game as you perfectly point out.

  20. #39
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,399
    Thanks
    995
    Thanked 1,221 Times in 924 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I only caught the last half-mile yesterday and spent most of it willing on Boreham Bill for Marb, forgetting completely that Solo was even in the race, so I watched it all the way through last night.

    I would be lying if I said I thought it was a promising run from Solo. Okay, he was never put in the race from a modest start but I would have wanted to see Cobden's ankles up at the horse's ears* before easing off.

    I did notice a few shakes of the reins as they turned for home but he was well beaten by then. Nicholls will probably come out and say the horse the horse didn't stay, only got its flu jab a few days before and was a bit flat, he really expected a big run (having told us on Saturday morning the horse needed to come down a few pounds before he would be competitive), etc.

    Then if/when he wins the Betfair he'll tell us they tweaked his wind, he really just came to himself in the last week or two, he always knew he was a class act, etc, etc.

    As usual, though, I'll be mob-handed in the race on the day once the outsiders are pushed out and extra places kick in.

    (* reminds of the old joke in a perfume shop - do you like your wife to wear something behind her ears? - Aye, her ankles!)
    Blimey, Desert, you’re not suggesting that I’ve been wrong to hang onto trainers’ every words as gospel are you?

  21. #40
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,748
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Blimey, Desert, you’re not suggesting that I’ve been wrong to hang onto trainers’ every words as gospel are you?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •