"The owls are not what they seem"
Grasshopper (6th January 2021)
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Ciel De Niege goes off fav if still on 139
Are my eyes broke, no Milkwood?
Milkwood is No. 30.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Slim (6th January 2021)
Milkwoods in there.Originally Posted by Slim
Just about to post, JPs only runner, that should be a tip in itself.
I’ve liked Solo for this for a while. Sea Ducor is an interesting one for me, runner up to Master Mcshee last time. They must like him.
He's actually #19 in terms of getting in (24)
Edit....Gumball and Ciel De Niege will be higher..
Last edited by Maxbet; 6th January 2021 at 4:15 PM.
I'm going to go out on a limb, and say that JP will end-up buying one of the novices ahead of the race to complement Ciel De Neige.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Meltier needs juice in the ground. Awful fav.
He wasn’t the one I was thinking of.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Betfair Hurdle and no exchange market up yet. Disgrace!
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Thyme White for me
If you mean Third Time Lucki then all I can say is I'm praying that **** runs.
Probably waiting for the weights.Betfair Hurdle and no exchange market up yet. Disgrace!
If penalties accrue after Jan 10th, I assume the weights will be out on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
I've had Solo in mind for this since his seasonal debut. It was so bad they needed to be working on getting his mark down. They might run him on Saturday in the Lanzarote just to get another 3-5lbs off him.
Two's company, three's allowed.
What run would you want to back him on the basis of? I don't think he's hiding much.
There’s usually a market as soon as Entries are made - though I susppose they’ve only just been released.
Have to agree with Slim on Solo. Just looks average to me.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
There are three bookmakers up so far.
Not so much based on a specific run as on the trainer's MO.
While many people disagreed with it at the time, the handicapper allotted Solo a mark of 157 for the Adonis. I plan to check back on that form - I know it has worked out badly - and see how the sectionals went. Nicholls didn't appear to have a problem with it at the time and openly confirmed the horse as the best juvenile he'd had for a long time.
The previous year, Pic D'Orhy came over with a big reputation but ran moderately in the Triumph and the trainer went down the route of getting him handicapped for the Betfair Hurdle.
Both five-year-olds, they would have struggled in the Champion Hurdle, as horses of that age are wont to do, so the ultra-valuable Newbury race is the ideal target.
PDO started his UK career on 149, with Nicholls managing to get him to Newbury off 146 but the win was a narrow one. Those figures might seem close but 4yos are entitled to improve 10lbs into their second season.
Even if we assume Solo's 157 was 8lbs too high, he's now down to 144 and that could come down again if he runs modestly in the Lanzarote (PDO was campaigned at further ahead of Newbury).
With Irish horses highly unlikely to be allowed over, Solo can afford to come down several pounds as he's about seventh in the card at the moment with 24 runners max allowed. 130 was the bottom mark last year, with Irish runners in the race.
Whether I'll get the big price PDO was last year is another matter but I backed him ante-post at much shorter before going in again on the day with the BOG.
A similar scenario might occur here.
Needless to say, he won't be my only bet in the race!
Two's company, three's allowed.
Slim (6th January 2021)
None of them particularly chancey about the one I like, hence the wait for the Exchange market.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Is everything cryptic with you these days?
No.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Can only be Cadzand
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