The 2021 Longshot Thread

[Desert Orchid]

Hamilton 35/1 to win away at Celtic.

(See the 'what are you backing today thread' for the rationale.)

[Marb]

At least Doncaster should be on tomorrow. A hard Sky bet chase where a case can be made for a few of them. Is Yorkhill capable of winning again? Very possible. The same applies to Rocky's Treasure, while JPs horse Musical Slave with Richard Johnson on a low weight, could improve a lot. A no bet race for me.

In the 3 mile novice hurdle beforehand (2:40), which also looks wide open, I am putting up Took The Lot E/W at 33/1 each way 1/5th the odds the first three places.

This horse won two class four novice hurdles in good style at Bangor when making all, before being quite dissapointing at Cheltenham in December. He tryed to make all again, but just stopped very quickly that day, actually finishing in a dissapointing last place. I feel he's potentially better than this run, so with a 49 day break off the track, which is a good break for the horse to have had, his front running style of running might be suited by a flat speed track like Doncaster.

I don't think he should be any bigger that 14 or 16s, so he looks value at present. A first three finish would be excellent.

[Desert Orchid]

Hamilton 35/1 to win away at Celtic.

(See the 'what are you backing today thread' for the rationale.)

The betting for this weekend's and midweek Scottish premiership illustrate how wrong that price was even if Celtic did eventually win.

We host St Mirren today. The visitors are 14/1. On Wednesday Stevie G's Govan Galacticos host St Johnstone who are 14/1.

Those prices don't interest me but I'll be backing today's four games to end in draws. The skinniest price treble pays 41/1.

[HawkWing]

Portstorm 40/1 in the River Don today. Out and out stamina - lower level than this - but the fact that the ground eased overnight hasn't helped. Hope it is even tougher than yesterday's conditions for this one.

Est Ilic in the Lightning Chase - 40/1 to finish in the first 2 - Bet365. I like the horse, again far far lower level, but battles and at those odds, I'm happy to chance that the others don't want to keep going. Cheddleton far far more likely to finish 2nd, and likely to enjoy the conditions, but at 40/1.....

[Desert Orchid]

Portstorm 40/1 in the River Don today. Out and out stamina - lower level than this - but the fact that the ground eased overnight hasn't helped. Hope it is even tougher than yesterday's conditions for this one.

I think I'll follow you in there, Hawk Wing. In my synopsis of another race for today I wrote:

...can be fancied on his best form of last season but hasn’t been cutting it so far this time round and his go-to jockey this season is at Doncaster for one outsider for another trainer.

This is the combo I had in mind and forgot to double-check it. The nudge is appreciated.

[HawkWing]

Est Ilic in the Lightning Chase - 40/1 to finish in the first 2 - Bet365. I like the horse, again far far lower level, but battles and at those odds, I'm happy to chance that the others don't want to keep going. Cheddleton far far more likely to finish 2nd, and likely to enjoy the conditions, but at 40/1.....

40/1 gone after my peanuts bet. Took the 28/1 at boyles for a peanut and a half.

EDIT: FFS 80/1 for the same bet with Coral.

[Desert Orchid]

I've also taken 20/1 The Butcher Said (5pl) in the 3.15 Doncaster.

To be honest, the jockey will always be a huge negative for me but the horse is third top on my figures behind Cap Du Nord (took 4/1 at the start of the week and can't believe it hasn't shortened from last night's 5/2 so now I'm worried) and Boldmere which I took at 16/1 yesterday and I'd be sick if one so highly rated went in at that price and I wasn't on.

[Marb]

Bet 365 offering 4 places on the novice hurdle, albeit slightly lower odds.

[Desert Orchid]

Portstorm 40/1 in the River Don today. Out and out stamina - lower level than this - but the fact that the ground eased overnight hasn't helped. Hope it is even tougher than yesterday's conditions for this one.

Almost a brilliant creep-creep ride there from the jockey.

Chuffed with second place.

Thanks again, HW.

[Marb]

Well done with Portstorm each way, HK.

I'm sure I fancied The Cob the last day it ran. Kicking myself.

I thought it was a race for a longshot and so it turned out that way.

[Maruco]

Takingrisks 5 places 40/1 strikes me as a decent bet in this Skybet Chase in horrible ground.

[Marb]

Well well well.

Well done Paul.

[Maruco]

Thanks Martin. I don't post in this thread very often so it's nice to put a big price one up.

[Marb]

He's a good horse on his day. 40/1 in hindsight was a generous price.

[Tout Seul]

Well done and thanks, Hawkwing!

I own that I had not a clue about nor much interest in, the racing today other than seeing confirmation that Shiskin was fine. Ended up a few bob up and having good shout at the screen based on your reasoning. Great stuff!

PS I didn't see your post, Maruco, Wish I had done. A cracker!!

[Desert Orchid]

Takingrisks 5 places 40/1 strikes me as a decent bet in this Skybet Chase in horrible ground.

Brilliant, Maruco!

[barjon]

Well played you long-shot guys Haven’t had a bet today, but been cheering them home with you

[Bonjers]

25/1 about Wolves to be relegated is looking big. We are an appalling outfit and are getting progressively worse. May somehow be saved by the current detritus at the bottom but genuinely cannot see where we're going to pick up our next three pointsm

[Beef or Salmon]

25/1 about Wolves to be relegated is looking big. We are an appalling outfit and are getting progressively worse. May somehow be saved by the current detritus at the bottom but genuinely cannot see where we're going to pick up our next three pointsm

Whats the diagnosis with Jiminez? Massive loss and combined with the loss of Jota has really took the wind out of their sails.

[Bonjers]

Whats the diagnosis with Jiminez? Massive loss and combined with the loss of Jota has really took the wind out of their sails.

He's OK thankfully. Doing light non-contact training now and may even be back before the end of the season.

Jota really wasn't up to much last season in all honesty. He was probably my favourite player to watch when he was really at it, but it didn't happen all that often. I'm happy for him though, he never shied away and is fantastic in full flow.

Overall there's just been a seismic change in our approach. We're so negative and that was happening even before the awful injury to Raul.