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Thread: The 2021 Longshot Thread

  1. #921
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    RATAFIA 345Nc 35/1 pp,betfair.

    Last time over 7f it was slow away and finished 10th but only beaten 4+ lengths.1 mile tomorrow.

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  5. #923
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    RATAFIA 345Nc 35/1 pp,betfair.

    Last time over 7f it was slow away and finished 10th but only beaten 4+ lengths.1 mile tomorrow.
    Now 100/1 .I like a drift but that's a big drift.

  6. #924
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Becher Chase - Snow Falcon 20/1, 7 pl (longer to fewer places) - will need to go up in the handicap to make the cut if the National is on his agenda so between his rating, potential and price, he will be my main bet in this race. He was a 159 hurdler back in the day, won the 2018 Kerry National off 148, won a G2 at Dromore later that year and won the G2 PWC Champion at Gowran the following season (for which he went up to 160). His form hasn’t been at the same level since but he may have been targeting the Covid-cancelled National and has maybe been kept back since then to get his mark down and they maybe realise they’ve overdone it (144 here). He has the back-class to win a race of this nature if he’s ready for it and takes to the fences.
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    Taking the big 2 on with Greaneteen (7/1); jumps for fun, quickens and loves the track (ask Altior) and - prep race apart- appears to have been aimed at this since.
    Cracking contest.
    Last edited by reet hard; 4th December 2021 at 6:44 AM.

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    Aintree 3.15 - Highway One O Two 25/1, 4pl - I recall putting this one up in the Betfair Hurdle but he chased the over-fast pace and paid the price. I still have faith in his ability and like his price today but it's a field full of second-season novices entitled to improve a lot. I should probably leave the race alone but races like this bring out the mug punter in me.
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    Chepstow 1.22 - Supreme Escape 20/1 - this one was 33/1 in plenty of places yesterday evening so I held off but it's now 20s tops with no indication (blue) that there's been money for it. Hopefully the BOG will play out in my favour. Anyway, this one is plumb bottom of my ratings and I probably shouldn't be touching it with a barge pole but they thought enough of it to run it in the Whitbread, for which it went off at just 8/1. It isn't engaged in the Welsh National so might be here to weigh up the field for other stable entries (Secret Reprieve, Fado Des Brosses) and connections, I imagine, will be keen to win the race, being Welsh. In summary, I'm reading between loads of lines and probably making a stupid bet but the stakes are small.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Chepstow 1.22 - Supreme Escape 20/1 - In summary, I'm reading between loads of lines and probably making a stupid bet but the stakes are small.
    Yup. Stupid bet.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Yup. Stupid bet.
    Another stupid bet, probably: Elegant Escape 66/1, 4pl - it was showing at 125/1 a few minutes ago and I tried to back it but the price kept changing. Clearly somebody decided the 125s was too long. Sentiment as much as anything but 146 might be a lenient mark on his best form.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Another stupid bet, probably: Elegant Escape 66/1, 4pl - it was showing at 125/1 a few minutes ago and I tried to back it but the price kept changing. Clearly somebody decided the 125s was too long. Sentiment as much as anything but 146 might be a lenient mark on his best form.
    Dropped out in the country but caught my eye running on past beaten horses after the last.
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Taking the big 2 on with Greaneteen (7/1); jumps for fun, quickens and loves the track (ask Altior) and - prep race apart- appears to have been aimed at this since.
    Cracking contest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Taking the big 2 on with Greaneteen (7/1); jumps for fun, quickens and loves the track (ask Altior) and - prep race apart- appears to have been aimed at this since.
    Cracking contest.
    Nice one Reet.

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    MONOXIDE 1225p 66/1 skybet 5 places.

    Really disappointed in myself today.as someone who follows my alerts over a cliff I let commander of fleet go unbacked.
    Last edited by Outsider; 4th December 2021 at 6:50 PM.

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    Good luck. Looking forward to tomorrow. Come on Fakir Doudaries!

    One horse I thought was decent at one point was Notice To Close. So a tracker longshot for me (3.05). He's had a decent 42 day break since his last pulled up effort. He might give longshot backers a decent run for their money from the front tomorrow I reckon.
    Last edited by Marb; 5th December 2021 at 12:15 PM.

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    1.45 Cork Razzle Dazzle Love 25/1. Trying to sneak a place really but is more of a 12/1 shot for me. Could be dangerous if left in the lead.

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  23. #936
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    Quote Originally Posted by HawkWing View Post
    1.45 Cork Razzle Dazzle Love 25/1. Trying to sneak a place really but is more of a 12/1 shot for me. Could be dangerous if left in the lead.
    NR

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    WELSH NATIONAL.

    EUROBOT 50/1 pulled up last time which looked suspicious.like giving it a run but not the full distance.seemed to be travelling ok at the back.
    Just my opinion.

  25. #938
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    Trust your gut, Outsider...
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  27. #939
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    RP GoldCup, Saturday - Joke Dancer 40/1 - with Dashel Drasher not declared I'm down on the race already. Joke Dancer has been on my radar since I 'did' the race earlier in the week but I shied away because he needed others to come out and the connections also have the admirable Midnight Shadow in the race. I wouldn't rule out a win for the latter but, on my figures, Joke Dancer best form gives him just as big a shout. Consistency wouldn't be his strongest asset, to put it gently, but on his day he can run and jump. He has pace for 2m and was sent over 3m last time, possibly to see if he had enough stamina for this kind of trip. Mania was probably always going to ride Midnight Shadow but he was never going to make 10-1 for this fellow. Quinlan has a winner and a second from three rides for the trainer this season, the loser being this horse over three miles. Sometimes these old rogues just put it all together and it's amazing how so many of them put it all together when the money's big. It's an amazing coincidence
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    Cheltenham 3.35 - Shannon Bridge 25/1, 4pl - this is a good price if he runs his race which he certainly hasn't done so far this season but he was improving nicely at the end of last season and might well have been brought along with a race of this nature in mind. I have him top-rated on his best form so can't not back him at such long odds.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 10th December 2021 at 11:06 AM.
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