Page 41 of 50 FirstFirst ... 313637383940414243444546 ... LastLast
Results 801 to 820 of 985

Thread: The 2021 Longshot Thread

  1. #801
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2020
    Posts
    401
    Thanks
    160
    Thanked 73 Times in 64 Posts
    Oh ouch. I missed that one. Well done!

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to moe For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (24th September 2021)

  3. #802
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    It always makes me wonder when trainers ruin a good mark for 6 grand.
    Which was the case with the William Haggas horse IRISH ADMIRAL.he won with a claimer so in theory he is off 10lb higher tomorrow.so at 20/1 I will have to back it.

    Also couldnt resist having a pound on ROPEY GUEST at 100/1.caught my eye earlier in the year but hasnt really put it together although he hasnt run that bad.

  4. #803
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    I'm always on the lookout for longshots in the Cambridgeshire. Psychologically, I've probably never got over missing out on Spanish Don at 100/1 a few years back as it was a cliff horse for me and I let it go.

    You can get 100/1 Baltic Baron today if you're happy to settle for 5 places but I've taken 80/1 for 8 places. He's clearly not the horse he once was but he's down to 79, if you take the jockey's allowance into account, from a high of 99 two seasons back and ran on well after blowing the start in last year's Hunt Cup off 97. These curves of gradual deterioration are sometimes interrupted by spikes of false hope and with eight places on offer I'm hoping half the field are beaten by the draw and that he is in the favoured half.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  5. #804
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Last longshot for the Cambridgeshire - Fastnet Crown 40/1, 8 places - looked on a curve this summer on fast ground over shorter but bred for this trip. Has been finishing strongly in his races and might just be unexposed. The middle draw is a concern but he's probably overpriced partly due to his form over shorter and his trainer not being seen as a 'big gun' but who is very good at his job.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  6. #805
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Last longshot for the Cambridgeshire - Fastnet Crown 40/1, 8 places - looked on a curve this summer on fast ground over shorter but bred for this trip. Has been finishing strongly in his races and might just be unexposed. The middle draw is a concern but he's probably overpriced partly due to his form over shorter and his trainer not being seen as a 'big gun' but who is very good at his job.
    Ran a great race. Might have won the far side if the jockey had stayed over there and might have gone clos if the rider had done the sensible thing and come to the near side early on.

    I'm not a fan of Spencer but he made himself look brilliant there on the winner. I'm pretty sure somebody put it up a while back so brilliant for them too.

    Godolphin in a handicap. First colours. How did I miss it?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  7. #806
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    Cesarewitch.

    I have done MAZE RUNNER 25/1.if it gets in off 74 then I dont think it will be this big.won a 3m hurdle last year so easily.

  8. #807
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Cesarewitch.

    I have done MAZE RUNNER 25/1.if it gets in off 74 then I dont think it will be this big.won a 3m hurdle last year so easily.
    Also been entered for the irish cesarewitch.

  9. #808
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    A real longshot this.
    LILLY BANTER 40/1 skynet 6 places.hasnt run for 2 and a half yrs but it's a poor race and by all accounts a good jockey claiming 5.
    First hcap.price worth a small bet.

  10. #809
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Arc - Torquator Tasso 80/1, 4pl - a soft-ground curve horse whose G1 Grosser Preiss von Baden might be under-rated by a couple of pounds. I like German horses in soft-ground races that might place an emphasis on stamina and he should probably be no more than about 16/1.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    2017diary (3rd October 2021), Beef or Salmon (3rd October 2021), Nonannyimfine (4th October 2021)

  12. #810
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Ascot 3.50 - Qaysar 50/1 5pl - I backed this one in the big race at Goodwood during the summer and was disappointed with the ride it got but maybe the ground was against it. Its two best performances on RPRs have been on soft and heavy and with conditions tomorrow likely to suit I can see him outrunning those long odds.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (1st October 2021)

  14. #811
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Nwm 2.55 - Champers Elysees 20/1 - Murtagh has a decent strike rate over here and the horse hit form this time last season.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  15. #812
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    Njord - Foret 18s
    Lady in France - Abbaye 40s

  16. #813
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Waterford
    Posts
    8,252
    Thanks
    264
    Thanked 317 Times in 251 Posts
    Njord tipped by pricewise.
    Last edited by LUKE; 2nd October 2021 at 9:45 PM.

  17. #814
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    3,410
    Thanks
    600
    Thanked 581 Times in 486 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Arc - Torquator Tasso 80/1, 4pl - a soft-ground curve horse whose G1 Grosser Preiss von Baden might be under-rated by a couple of pounds. I like German horses in soft-ground races that might place an emphasis on stamina and he should probably be no more than about 16/1.
    Some shout well done DO


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  18. The Following User Says Thank You to viking For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (3rd October 2021)

  19. #815
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Arc - Torquator Tasso 80/1, 4pl - a soft-ground curve horse whose G1 Grosser Preiss von Baden might be under-rated by a couple of pounds. I like German horses in soft-ground races that might place an emphasis on stamina and he should probably be no more than about 16/1.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #816
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Genuinely great call, DO. Well done.

  21. The Following User Says Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (3rd October 2021)

  22. #817
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Even better getting it boosted to 92.5/1
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  23. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (3rd October 2021)

  24. #818
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    Very nice DO. What a good pick.

  25. The Following User Says Thank You to Outsider For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (3rd October 2021)

  26. #819
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,398
    Thanks
    995
    Thanked 1,221 Times in 924 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    Nice one, desert…..well, a damn sight better than nice really

  27. The Following User Says Thank You to barjon For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (3rd October 2021)

  28. #820
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2020
    Posts
    401
    Thanks
    160
    Thanked 73 Times in 64 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Arc - Torquator Tasso 80/1, 4pl - a soft-ground curve horse whose G1 Grosser Preiss von Baden might be under-rated by a couple of pounds. I like German horses in soft-ground races that might place an emphasis on stamina and he should probably be no more than about 16/1.
    Thanks for that. Couldn’t work out why I backed it on 1st but now I know! Makes up for the time we went to Longchamp and, on our return saw that I’d left a piece of paper with the name Danedream on it. But didn’t back her!

  29. The Following User Says Thank You to moe For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (3rd October 2021)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •