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Thread: The 2021 Longshot Thread

  1. #21
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I didn't look at the 1.30 Wincanton but I wouldn't put you off Boreham Bill even if I can't see me backing it myself.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  3. #22
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    Lanzarote looks open. He seems a decent enough horse at a decent enough price. I won't let it put me off.
    Last edited by Marb; 8th January 2021 at 11:22 PM.

  4. #23
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    First up for me today...

    Kempton 1.45 King Of Realms 20/1 4pl - not too far off the top on my figures with the potential to improve past a lot of dodgepots. I wasn't planning on having a bet in this race but I thought this would be around the 7/1 mark so I have to take the bait.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  5. #24
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Next up (and don't laugh...):

    Kempton 3.30 Gerolamo Cardano 150/1, 5pl - this second-season juvenile took in the Triumph Trial and Victor Ludorum last year, going off at single-figure odds in each and going up to 131 for the former but has been dropped to 127. I’m not a great fan of the jockey but her claim, the first-time pieces and the very fact that they’re coming for this first time up intrigues the ‘outside the box’ element of my thinking. Would probably be no more than 33/1 with better-known connections.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  6. #25
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    I had a longish look at this one last night, DO, but went with something else in the end, as I thought I was maybe being a bit daft. Might just have a small each-way tickle on this, now that someone else is thinking along the same lines.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 9th January 2021 at 12:15 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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  8. #26
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Lastly (for now), a couple for the Welsh Nash:

    Captain Drake 33/1 6pl - first-time pieces and his hurdles win earlier in the season suggested he was much-improved and entitled to be even better over fences. He did jump like a piano stool last time and will need to buck up on that score.

    Joe Farrell 66/1 6pl - everything points to his being in terminal decline but he was a length third to VLR here a year past in October off 142 and his Scottish National win tells us he'll stay. I like wizened old plodders in exptreme conditions. They seem to cope better than younger horses who maybe just aren't strong enough at their stage of development (despite the good record of young horses in this race).
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  9. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I didn't look at the 1.30 Wincanton but I wouldn't put you off Boreham Bill even if I can't see me backing it myself.
    I just placed a small each way Yankee. I took 80/1 with Hillls 5 places, so can't complain about value!

    Good luck with your longshots today.
    Last edited by Marb; 9th January 2021 at 12:51 PM.

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  11. #28
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I just placed a small each way Yankee. I took 80/1 with Hillls 5 places, so can't complain about value!

    Good luck with your longshots today.
    Hills currently 150/1 5-places if all go to post.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    I can only see 66s on oddschecker on my phone with Hills.

    Overall this was the hardest days jumps racing to decipher I've seen all season. One or two probable good things but very short odds to boot.
    Last edited by Marb; 9th January 2021 at 1:34 PM.

  13. #30
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Captain Drake 33/1 6pl - first-time pieces and his hurdles win earlier in the season suggested he was much-improved and entitled to be even better over fences. He did jump like a piano stool last time and will need to buck up on that score.
    A modest little return to cover the longshots on the day.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  15. #31
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    Boreham Bill. Who put that up? Some winner and price

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    Marb (9th January 2021)

  17. #32
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Absolutely brilliant, Marb!!

    I was shouting it on all the way up the straight.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  19. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    A couple of longshots I feel like giving a good shout to tomorrow.

    Wincanton

    1.30 Martha Brae. She's still an unexposed horse who showed a bit of consistency in some novice hurdles as a youngster. She's had three handicap hurdle starts this season.

    She's started well in these races, led the last twice before stopping very quickly. She's had a wind operation maybe that will do the trick. Also drops in distance which ought to suit. She still could be anything in terms of true handicap ability in relation to her actual handicap mark.

    Kempton

    3.30 Boreham Bill is my longshot in the Lanzarote. He put in an interesting run last time. He blundered hanging left while held up on the day. Considering these issues he did well to be there at the business end but was just done for speed at the finish.

    This will be an even greater test with a much stronger gallop over this right handed track and if he's held up for a late thrust he can go close again after a decent two month break from that last performance. He has talent but consistency hasn't been his strong point in career thus far. Hopefully he can start to put that right here tomorrow at a generous price too.
    Great shout with Boreham Bill


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  21. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    A couple of longshots I feel like giving a good shout to tomorrow.

    Wincanton

    1.30 Martha Brae. She's still an unexposed horse who showed a bit of consistency in some novice hurdles as a youngster. She's had three handicap hurdle starts this season.

    She's started well in these races, led the last twice before stopping very quickly. She's had a wind operation maybe that will do the trick. Also drops in distance which ought to suit. She still could be anything in terms of true handicap ability in relation to her actual handicap mark.

    Kempton

    3.30 Boreham Bill is my longshot in the Lanzarote. He put in an interesting run last time. He blundered hanging left while held up on the day. Considering these issues he did well to be there at the business end but was just done for speed at the finish.

    This will be an even greater test with a much stronger gallop over this right handed track and if he's held up for a late thrust he can go close again after a decent two month break from that last performance. He has talent but consistency hasn't been his strong point in career thus far. Hopefully he can start to put that right here tomorrow at a generous price too.
    What a good choice Marb.very well done mate.nice one.

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  23. #35
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    Wow well done Marb, top drawer!

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  25. #36
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    Thanks Marb! Clicked onto the race just before the off and remembered what you’d said. Just got on as the tapes went up!

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  27. #37
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    Superb shout.

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  29. #38
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    Thanks everyone. I thought it was prime material for this thread and I'm glad Moehat did it as she loves a good longshot!
    Last edited by Marb; 9th January 2021 at 4:45 PM.

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  31. #39
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Brilliant !
    Well done Marb.
    Couldn't fancy any of them so had some shrapnel on him for interest. Brightened up my day.Ta!

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  33. #40
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    Great shout

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