The 2021 Longshot Thread

[Desert Orchid]

I've gone for another longshot in the Lincoln - Librisa Breeze 66/1 7 pl - this is an old 'pal' of mine so there's an element of sickness insurance involved in this bet but his OR hit 119 at his peak and it went back up to 113 in the summer of 2019 when he ran well in the Hungerford. He's been off the track for over a year so has presumably been injured but this is actually his first run since a wind op last April. I'm just intrigued that they've chosen a £100k race in which to bring him back to the track. That Hungerford run was his seasonal debut after over nine months off so he can go well first time up. He's only off 102 now.

And another...

Graphite 100/1 6 pl - in his second and third season in France, under the care of Andre Fabre for Godolphin, he ran six times in total, five of them at G2 or G3 level and for which he was never any more than 6/1. In the last three of those rus he got RPRs of 110, 110 and 113, indicating possible improvement. He hit 113 the following season as well but underwent a midsummer absence, presumably through injury. The following summer he presumably had his issues as Godolphin got rid of him and he moved to Simon Crisford but he never made the track for his new owners. His new owner-trainer has tons of experience with Godolphin and Varian so I wouldn't let any lack of familiarity with the name put me off.

But maybe the horse just has issues.

[Outsider]

I've also done HORTZADAR 40/1 but drawn in one is a big negative.

[Desert Orchid]

Surely between us we'll get at least one longshot placed, Outsider

[Desert Orchid]

Doncaster 2.00 Qaysar 22/1 - I had my eye on this midweek as a possible each-way shot at 16/1 but hadn't checked the market since. I now see it's blue across the board but 22/1 in a few places so happy to put it on the thread. He wouldn't be my main fancy in the race but he's top on my ratings. I do think he's vulnerable to improvers but if that improvement doesn't happen he could win by default and he's a CD winner.

[Desert Orchid]

And another...

Graphite 100/1 6 pl - in his second and third season in France, under the care of Andre Fabre for Godolphin, he ran six times in total, five of them at G2 or G3 level and for which he was never any more than 6/1. In the last three of those rus he got RPRs of 110, 110 and 113, indicating possible improvement. He hit 113 the following season as well but underwent a midsummer absence, presumably through injury. The following summer he presumably had his issues as Godolphin got rid of him and he moved to Simon Crisford but he never made the track for his new owners. His new owner-trainer has tons of experience with Godolphin and Varian so I wouldn't let any lack of familiarity with the name put me off.

But maybe the horse just has issues.

Jason Weaver's selection on the morning show. Now 33s tops after shortening gradually since the other day.

[Marb]

I've had a quiet week. I had my lung x-ray yesterday which was the main thing. I'm hoping for a good result when the results are back next week.

I've done Howzer Black in the spring mile. He's been in the first three the last six starts, this is a massive step up in class, but he's just the type of usually frustrating lower grade horse that may thrive in a bigger race off a lighter weight. A claimer takes off another 5 pounds.

We'll see.

[barjon]

I've had a quiet week. I had my lung x-ray yesterday which was the main thing. I'm hoping for a good result when the results are back next week.

I've done Howzer Black in the spring mile. He's been in the first three the last six starts, this is a massive step up in class, but he's just the type of usually frustrating lower grade horse that may thrive in a bigger race off a lighter weight. A claimer takes off another 5 pounds.

We'll see.

Got fingers crossed for you, Marb.

[Desert Orchid]

I've also done HORTZADAR 40/1 but drawn in one is a big negative.

Great run, Outsider!

[Desert Orchid]

I've had a quiet week. I had my lung x-ray yesterday which was the main thing. I'm hoping for a good result when the results are back next week.

I've done Howzer Black in the spring mile. He's been in the first three the last six starts, this is a massive step up in class, but he's just the type of usually frustrating lower grade horse that may thrive in a bigger race off a lighter weight. A claimer takes off another 5 pounds.

We'll see.

Ran really well for you, Marb. Nice shout.

[viking]

Good luck with the X-ray results Marb


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Marb]

Cheers.

It was excellent run from Howzer.

[Outsider]

We all have views on horses,some right,most wrong but when I first started watching for eye catchers a horse caught my eye in Ireland I was certain wasnt trying with a view to hcaps.it took him a long time but eventually it won.i think it was backed from 12s into 6s and guess what,I missed it.well it is now down to run in the topham so I've risked a little,no point lumping on in case it doesnt run.
SNUGSBOROUGH HALL 25/1 and a little win on betfair at 79/1.

[Desert Orchid]

Irish Grand National - Top Moon 33/1 5pl - Right now I wouldn't say it's going to be my main fancy in the race but it wouldn't be far off it if it makes the cut. Rated 146 here as a novice over hurdles last season, he could reasonably have been expected to progress into a 156 novice chaser this season but they've kept him largely under the radar, only really letting him off the leash once, in the £100k Matheson at the DRF when he lost out in a photo. He's 5lbs higher here on 136 but there might be a lot more to come stepped up significantly in distance (Spanish Moon/Martaline).

[Slim]

Irish Grand National - Top Moon 33/1 5pl - Right now I wouldn't say it's going to be my main fancy in the race but it wouldn't be far off it if it makes the cut. Rated 146 here as a novice over hurdles last season, he could reasonably have been expected to progress into a 156 novice chaser this season but they've kept him largely under the radar, only really letting him off the leash once, in the £100k Matheson at the DRF when he lost out in a photo. He's 5lbs higher here on 136 but there might be a lot more to come stepped up significantly in distance (Spanish Moon/Martaline).

Would be safe to assume he'll get in. Might even be number 30.

[Slim]

Money around for Top Moon today. Still 33s with Skybet and Bet365.

[Desert Orchid]

Yesterday I backed Mother Earth 25/1 for the 1000G. (I might have put it on the ante-post thread - if I didn't I meant to.)

I was checking out Simon Rowlands's blog on cadence/frequency and something caught my eye and when checking it out I came across Mother Earth's run at Keeneland and I think she would probably get a big mark-up for it so she might end up the Coolmore #1 for the race.

Two months ahead of Timeform They are tipping her for the Guineas.

[Desert Orchid]

I've gone in again much more heavily on Mother Earth at 20/1. I reckon once subscribers to Timeform's Horse to Follow booklet peruse it they'll nibble away at the price and the odds will contract. By how much I've no idea.

Back in January, I also took ME in an ew ante-post yankee with Battlegound (2000Gns), High Definition (Derby) and Santa Barbara (Oaks).

[Slim]

Not being smart but does anyone care what Timeform fancies anymore?

[Desert Orchid]

Saturday, Fairyhouse 4.05 Golden Spear 22/1 - I won't go into the whys and wherefores for now but if this is 'off' it is a good thing. Not many bookies are offering odds right now but if it goes longer generally and extra places open up I'll be piling in again.

[Desert Orchid]

Not being smart but does anyone care what Timeform fancies anymore?

I think the people that make the market tissues do. I also think most of the racing media pundits do too as most of them seem to base their selections around Timeform ratings/comments.

ITV recently introduced Timeform ratings to their programmes too.

But that's not why I bought the 'Fifty' book. I bought it because I had some 'free' money in my Amazon account and, although the writing isn't as good as it used to be, it's still usually the best-written racing stuff out there.