The 2021 Longshot Thread

[Tiny Clanger]

Kansas City Chief - 50/1 b365 pertemps

Likes the track, gets the distance, versatile groundwise, lightly used , millie wannacot having a great few weeks- was surprised at 50/1 when I struck it last night

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[Desert Orchid]

Mares' Novices Hurdle - Pont Aval 40/1 4 pl - Mullins has the patience of a saint so if he's allowed this one to reach eight years of age before asking her to compete in a race of this nature who am I to doubt him?

[tiggers1972]

Top Notch in the plate.

[Desert Orchid]

Pertemps Final - Loads of value longshots with seven places on offer.

Everglow 33/1
Ask Dillon 33/1
Anything Will Do 33/1

And I wouldn't put anyone off anything at long odds. It's that kind of race.

[Desert Orchid]

Plate - Champagne Court 28/1 6pl - took in the two big novice hcap chases here last January and March (Imperial Aura races) when not entirely unfancied (only 11/2 for the first one) off 143 and had wind surgery after the latter race. Hasn't improved this season as might have been expected but showed more last time in the first-time pieces after a short break and his mark has come down to 134. Target trainer so this might have been on the agenda since last season or is maybe just running into form now and is in a position to take advantage. Hardly a convincing case, I accept, but I don't mind nibbling away at these types.

Same race - Kiltealy Briggs 40/1 6pl - first-season novice, was chucked in at the deep end against Monkfish here in the Albert Bartlett so maybe highly regarded. Went straight for a graduation race at Carlisle and went up to 140 for it, then ran into a proper one in Allart at Ascot. Weakened late at Sandown over further so might improve a good bit back down in trip. Trainer no mug and connections love this meeting.

[Desert Orchid]

Thursday - Kim Muir - Go Another One 33/1 6pl - earlier on the card, The Shunter is 9/2f for the Plate and has the profile to win. Go Another One has a very similar profile if you strip out his non-trying runs and, on my figures, has just as good a chance of winning the Kim Muir but is nearly eight times the price. That’s ridiculous value considering his trainer’s strike rate in the UK (3 wins from 5 runners) this season.

Blue across the board and 20s tops. Promising...

[Desert Orchid]

Kim Muir - Townshend 66/1 6pl - on the face of it has no right running here on the basis of current form but some of the yard's reps have been over-performing here this week and this one is in first-time pieces. Went up to 142 last season for winning at Ascot and took in the Ultima next time out. Largely disappointing since but the jockey gets a few extra in his allowance to enhance a 10lb drop in the ratings. A bit of a leap of faith but that's factored into the price.

[Outsider]

Blue across the board and 20s tops. Promising...

And got a place.i followed.

[Outsider]

County Hurdle - Belfast Banter 66/1 6 places - people with long enough memories will recall that I put this one up earlier this season when it came over to contest the top-class Ascot handicap won by Not So Sleepy. Belfast Banter got a shocker of ride that day under exaggerated hold-up tactics before storming through after the turn for home before that effort took its toll after the last. It was backed down to 10/1 that day off the same mark as here. The chances are its subsequent form is about looking after its mark with a view to a big handicap although I don't imagine this race could have been seriously targeted since his mark is nowhere near high enough to make the usual cut so this might be an opportunity they don't want to pass up. At the price, I'm happy to pay to find out.

What a good choice well done mate

[Outsider]

Pity the site was down today as I wanted to put up a 25/1 winner sp 14/1.honest.

[Outsider]

MONBEG AQUEDUDE 455nc 20/1 just a small bet,ran well for a long way last time.been on my list for a long long time.

[Desert Orchid]

County Hurdle - Belfast Banter 66/1 6 places - people with long enough memories will recall that I put this one up earlier this season when it came over to contest the top-class Ascot handicap won by Not So Sleepy. Belfast Banter got a shocker of ride that day under exaggerated hold-up tactics before storming through after the turn for home before that effort took its toll after the last. It was backed down to 10/1 that day off the same mark as here. The chances are its subsequent form is about looking after its mark with a view to a big handicap although I don't imagine this race could have been seriously targeted since his mark is nowhere near high enough to make the usual cut so this might be an opportunity they don't want to pass up. At the price, I'm happy to pay to find out.

It's nice when one of the arrows strays into the bullseye

[Maxbet]

County Hurdle - Belfast Banter 66/1 6 places - people with long enough memories will recall that I put this one up earlier this season when it came over to contest the top-class Ascot handicap won by Not So Sleepy. Belfast Banter got a shocker of ride that day under exaggerated hold-up tactics before storming through after the turn for home before that effort took its toll after the last. It was backed down to 10/1 that day off the same mark as here. The chances are its subsequent form is about looking after its mark with a view to a big handicap although I don't imagine this race could have been seriously targeted since his mark is nowhere near high enough to make the usual cut so this might be an opportunity they don't want to pass up. At the price, I'm happy to pay to find out.

It's nice when one of the arrows strays into the bullseye

I got 80p worth of the placepot and the place side of the Scoop 6 up solely because of the inclusion of your tip here...cheers DO

[Desert Orchid]

Midlands National - Ramses De Teillee 28/1 7pl (33s to fewer places) - this race might represent a slight drop in class for him and he has a few disappointing runs since his excellent second to Yala Enki to forgive but, on my figures, his run behind Lord Du Mesnil last time was on a par with the Yala Enki race yet he finished lame that day. There's a chance he can be better than that, in which case he could be quite competitive. My main fancy for the race is on the drift this morning and might end up qualifying for the thread, which is a bit of a concern, and one I had hoped might qualify when I did the race on Thursday has more than halved in price since then so I'm kicking myself for not being braver sooner.

It's a funny old game.

[Desert Orchid]

Bugger I spent ages typing up cases for two longshots in the Lincoln but left it when I heard Only connect starting assuming I could just finish it off afterwards.

Unfortunately when I returned to the laptop the post had disappeared, presumably timed out.

I can't be arsed typing it all again so, lesson learned for the future, these are the two and you can work out the case for each if you can be arsed yourself.

River Nymph 20/1
Stone Soldier 100/1, 5pl

[Desert Orchid]

Bugger I spent ages typing up cases for two longshots in the Lincoln but left it when I heard Only connect starting assuming I could just finish it off afterwards.

Unfortunately when I returned to the laptop the post had disappeared, presumably timed out.

I can't be arsed typing it all again so, lesson learned for the future, these are the two and you can work out the case for each if you can be arsed yourself.

River Nymph 20/1
Stone Soldier 100/1, 5pl

I take it someone of influence has put up River Nymph as well?

It has halved in price since last night and is now 10/1 tops.

[nickf88]

I take it someone of influence has put up River Nymph as well?

It has halved in price since last night and is now 10/1 tops.

Hugh Taylor today

[Desert Orchid]

River Nymph 20/1
Stone Soldier 100/1, 5pl

Stone Soldier misses the cut.

I'm not sure where I stand with the bet as he hasn't been declared for the consolation race.

[Outsider]

Havent really got a clue in the Lincoln.but after taking stats and trends I've settled on DASHING ROGER 40/1 boosted to 44.82 hills.

[Desert Orchid]

I've gone for another longshot in the Lincoln - Librisa Breeze 66/1 7 pl - this is an old 'pal' of mine so there's an element of sickness insurance involved in this bet but his OR hit 119 at his peak and it went back up to 113 in the summer of 2019 when he ran well in the Hungerford. He's been off the track for over a year so has presumably been injured but this is actually his first run since a wind op last April. I'm just intrigued that they've chosen a £100k race in which to bring him back to the track. That Hungerford run was his seasonal debut after over nine months off so he can go well first time up. He's only off 102 now.