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Thread: The 2021 Longshot Thread

  1. #181
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    It’s a long time since the Pipes have been in such good form on the run up to Cheltenham. I’d love to see them work some of their handicap magic at the Festival again. And I can imagine myself stood on the right hand side of the pre parade ring where they saddle up waiting in anticipation of the plot unfolding. I so want to be back there in person next year!

  2. #182
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    Well it seems as though he's been entered in the cheltenham handicaps, Moe. I'll watch Thursdays race with interest.

    I know a few people's viewpoint is I'm way off the mark with my angle or outlook on this.

    I'm glad to see him run Thursday in the class 3 and get a county entry. The fundamentals are in place, if this horse proves that he's in red hot form.

    Two firms have priced him for the County. 33/1.
    Last edited by Marb; 23rd February 2021 at 8:51 PM.

  3. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Not a snotter's chance in either race, Marb.

    His career high hurdles mark was 132, he was 16/1 and beaten out of sight. If he wins on Thursday he won't go up at all as he's already due to go up 11lbs. Off 128 he might make the cut for the Imperial Cup (if he even gets an entry) but would have no chance off that mark. He'd need to be at least 135 to get placed and that's before you take into account the idea of the stable probably having saved one for an attempt at the double with the County (I'm actually thinking Night Edition who was never put into Sunday's race).

    Does anyone know if there's a still a £50k bonus for winning the Imperial Cup and again at Cheltenham?
    £100,000 last year and I was thinking the same about Night edition.

  4. #184
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    I can tell you that Eamon An Cnoic does have a County Hurdle entry Martin.

  5. #185
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    Yeah cheers let's see how he is at Chepstow on Thursday, Paul.

    If he wins well, hopefully he'll get raised the 6 or 7lb from 128 that he'd need to ensure he gets a run.
    Last edited by Marb; 23rd February 2021 at 10:55 PM.

  6. #186
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    I went on google to find out if there was a bonus for the imperial/ chelt double and went to ATR site where they talked about it and Evan Williams said it's something he would love to do.this was last year and it was Mack the man was mentioned.he got brought down in the betfair and never ran again until this season.
    Hampered slightly at the first last week and didnt jump that well and was never put in the race.
    I thought you might be interested in that Marb as you liked mack the man.

  7. #187
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've taken an ante-post pop at a longshot in the Ultima.

    I ran off a copy of the card and borrowed my elderly neighbour's trusted old bloodhound Duffer, under whose snout I placed a piece of paper with the words CHELTENHAM PLOT writ large. I then whisked the paper away and replaced it with the Ultima card and ordered old Duffer, "Find!"

    Old Duffer enthusiastically flared his nostrils over the card in ever-widening circles before stamping his left-fore paw (I'd always assumed he was right-pawed) on the card, raising his noble head to the ceiling and howling like a banshee at a full moon.

    I swiftly double-checked that I hadn't inadvertently trodden on his right paw before prising his left one from the card. At the last moment his centre nail pieced the card bang in the centre of the name of one horse.

    The name of that horse?

    Young Wolf.

    "Good lad, Duffer," I said soothingly patting the crown of his regal pate and rewarding him with his favourite treat, a Drambuie liqueur.

    I returned old Duffer to his master and set about investigating the possible claims of Young Wolf.

    Same 'team' as previous winner Holywell.
    A novice with handicap experience.
    On a curve in the first half of the season on good ground but disappointing subsequently on soft over shorter trips.
    Handicap mark back down from 142 to 138.
    Likely to get in near the bottom of the weights.

    I reckon old Duffer might just have sniffed out a nice one here.

    66/1.

    Good lad, Duffer.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th February 2021 at 5:37 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  9. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Yeah cheers let's see how he is at Chepstow on Thursday, Paul.

    If he wins well, hopefully he'll get raised the 6 or 7lb from 128 that he'd need to ensure he gets a run.
    Eamon An Cnoic is surely the biggest steering job I've seen for a few seasons. Nearly a stone officially well in, with a five pound claimer, and two Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdle entries to boot.

    I hope he hacks up. I think he'll hack up.

    I conscious this is the longshot thread, so I'll shut it until Cheltenham, or better still, the Imperial Cup.
    Last edited by Marb; 24th February 2021 at 8:35 PM.

  10. #189
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    I'm not too deflated about Eamon today.

    He's bumped into one in excellent form and Grumpy Charley was a former David Pipe trained horse himself.

    Maybe there's been method in my madness, as Grumpy Charley has three entries at the festival, with one being in the Martin Pipe handicaps Hurdle over 2M4F.

    The way that he stayed on in today race makes the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle entry over the extra four furlongs look really interesting for Grumpy Charley.

    I could see myself having a proper bet on him in the near future.

    You'd think to beat a horse like Eamon today, who was really well in, that it's very a good sign that Grumpy Charley is improving, and probably ahead of his official mark aswell.

    So yeah as I say, maybe method in my madness.
    Last edited by Marb; 25th February 2021 at 3:26 PM.

  11. #190
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've taken an ante-post pop at a longshot in the Ultima.


    Young Wolf.
    66/1.
    I've gone in again on Young Wolf 33/1 for tomorrow's big handicap at Kempton.

    Once you take the Irish horses into account he'll probably need at least 20 above him to drop out in order to make the cut off his current mark so they might feel he needs to go up the handicap if indeed the Ultima is the aim. They might have Aintree or even the Scottish National in mind. I really don't know.

    Or maybe tomorrow is "it".

    Either way, I want to have him covered and at 33/1 the outlay doesn't have to be painful. He will be one of several bets in the race, odds permitting, and they look like permitting
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  13. #191
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    We need a thread for 2022. I've had two long shot pokes at the 2022 Festival already.

  14. #192
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    Nurse!!
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  15. #193
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    We need a thread for 2022. I've had two long shot pokes at the 2022 Festival already.
    Excellent!!

    I'm already on Zanahiyr at 33/1 for the CH!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    We need a thread for 2022. I've had two long shot pokes at the 2022 Festival already.
    I thought I was the only one - have already backed the winner of next years Arkle and Champion Hurlde!!

  17. #195
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Excellent!!

    I'm already on Zanahiyr at 33/1 for the CH!
    Close, same stable. I've gone in on Balyadam at 50s. I don't think he'll beat Appreciate It in the Supreme but the placed horses in that race do well in the following year's CH.

  18. #196
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    Would have thought he was pencilled in as a chaser. Cheltenham will probably decide a lot.

  19. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    We need a thread for 2022. I've had two long shot pokes at the 2022 Festival already.
    Me too as it happens Euro. Not all fit this thread but these are the bets I have for 2022 so far:

    Sir Gerhard Bumper and Any Race 22’ 33/1
    Shishkin Champion Chase 22’ 14/1
    Shishkin Arkle and Champion Chase 22’ 14/1
    Gaillard du Mesnil 16/1 RSA
    Bob Ollinger 25/1 RSA
    Energumene 25/1 Ryanair
    Envoi Allen Marsh and Gold Cup 22’ 28/1
    Envoi Allen Gold Cup 22’ 14/1
    Monkfish RSA and 22’ Gold Cup 33/1
    Shishkin 22' Champ Chase/Envoi Allen 22' Gold Cup 225/1
    Shishkin 22' Champ Chase/Monkfish 22' Gold Cup 200/1

    Slim will have a complete breakdown whe he sees these tying up money!

    So what else has everyone else got so far?
    Last edited by Maruco; 27th February 2021 at 11:06 AM.

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  21. #198
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've gone in again on Young Wolf 33/1 for tomorrow's big handicap at Kempton.

    Once you take the Irish horses into account he'll probably need at least 20 above him to drop out in order to make the cut off his current mark so they might feel he needs to go up the handicap if indeed the Ultima is the aim. They might have Aintree or even the Scottish National in mind. I really don't know.

    Or maybe tomorrow is "it".

    Either way, I want to have him covered and at 33/1 the outlay doesn't have to be painful. He will be one of several bets in the race, odds permitting, and they look like permitting
    Have I stumbled on to one here?

    Now generally 14/1 and 18s tops. Can't be a negative.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #199
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    Someone tipped him up on the sporting life website last night, DO. Good luck.

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  24. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Have I stumbled on to one here?

    Now generally 14/1 and 18s tops. Can't be a negative.
    Took 25s this morning. Well done taking 33s. Hoping for. better than the last twice back on good ground


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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