The 2021 Longshot Thread

[Outsider]

Have to do TRESORIER 20/1 6 places 455c tomorrow.also done BABY POWER 33/1 525c but it hasnt run for a while and is berthed in the 1 stall which I've always preferred a high draw at the curragh.

[Desert Orchid]

Copied from the Oaks thread:

I've had a pop at Dubai Fountain 33/1 in anticipation of a comfortable win in Chester's Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday.

She has a 12lb margin on ORs, 13lbs on RPRs and her current OR 110 would not be far off a placing in an average renewal. If she can improve 7lbs into this season she'd be pretty much guaranteed to place and possibly win.

She wasn't beaten at all far in the Fillies' Mile (in amongst some Guineas runners, including Mother Earth) and is indeed entitled to improve significantly for stepping up in trip (Dosage reads: DP = 3-6-9-10-0 (28) DI = 0.93 CD = 0.07)

While she's entitled to win comfortably on Wednesday - and 7/2 strikes me as incredible value - if she does she'll probably more than halve in price so I want her onside at long odds.

In fact, as things stand, only three fillies are ahead of her on RPRs:

Pretty Gorgeous 114 - unlikely to stay
Indigo Girl 112 - will stay
Shale 112 - not guaranteed to stay

Her current RPR (111) is the same as the one Mother Earth achieved yesterday, which puts things into some kind of context.

[Desert Orchid]

Chester Cup - Blakeney Point 33/1 - He has a good draw, course form, ran more like his old self over hurdles two weeks ago and the claimer takes an extra 5lbs off. He was regularly posting RPRs of 105-109 in 2018/19 and his OR peaked at 105 in both years. Off 94 here, he is very well in on a cherrypicking exercise of his old form.

[Outsider]

VICTORIA CUP. HISTORY WRITER 50/1 boosted to 55/1 6 places betfair.
Ran well in the Lincoln but ran very poorly last time and maybe 7f isnt far enough but at the price I have to keep doing it.

[Desert Orchid]

VICTORIA CUP. HISTORY WRITER 50/1 boosted to 55/1 6 places betfair.
Ran well in the Lincoln but ran very poorly last time and maybe 7f isnt far enough but at the price I have to keep doing it.

Good trainer, well handicapped on its best form. I plan to double-check it this evening.

Edit - it's a tricky one, this History Writer. He had a couple of runs in France towards the end of the season before last and when he reappeared here his rating had gone up from 95 (off which he was 50/1 in the Cambridgeshire) to 106, courtesy of a heavy-ground Listed win at Saint-Cloud. He wouldn't have been far off the places in the Golden Mile off that mark but for being badly hampered when starting to fade.

That's pretty much the peg on which I'm hanging his hopes but at 66/1 it doesn't cost much to be adventurous. His runs since Goodwood require the forgiveness of a conclave of cardinals in the run-up to Easter but, as Outsider says, he showed a lot of promise in the Lincoln.

If he goes out again on Saturday I might go in again for the sake of securing the better price.

I've also taken Tinto 50/1, 6 places. He might be prepping for the Wokingham but he does have form at this trip and has caught the eye a couple of times this season. He's second-top in my ratings table.

[Outsider]

I narrowed the Chester cup down to 8 and I can never seem to get mark Johnson right but I'm taking a chance on ROCHESTER HOUSE 22/1 although it is badly drawn and even though it's in excess of 2m it's usually won by something drawn 7 or lower.

[Desert Orchid]

Chester Cup - Blakeney Point 33/1 - He has a good draw, course form, ran more like his old self over hurdles two weeks ago and the claimer takes an extra 5lbs off. He was regularly posting RPRs of 105-109 in 2018/19 and his OR peaked at 105 in both years. Off 94 here, he is very well in on a cherrypicking exercise of his old form.

I've gone in again at 50+/1 to 6 places.

[Marb]

On A Session is a really interesting contender in the Victoria Cup tomorrow. He won his first two career starts abroad in May 2018. He then went to Ireland where he popped up to win a handicap at 20/1 on what was his second start in Ireland.

He's now switched to trainer David Barrons whose horses are running well. On A Session has shown his capability with two good efforts when fourth and second the last two times, the latter effort finishing just behind some improving handicappers in a race where the form could end up working out well.

On A Session's best form is early season so he should be ready to rock and roll tomorrow at a tasty price of 25/1. Good to soft ground should be perfect. I think he's going to run really well. Shop around for the best each way term's.

[Desert Orchid]

Swinton Hurdle - Cormier 25/1 - I went very high with Cormier (25/1) earlier in the season and I'm sure I put it up on here in at least one of its last two races but he hasn’t franked the form. I’m not yet convinced my figure is wrong and the hood which was left off last time is back on and I’ve now read that he lost a shoe the time before. If he’s fresh, well and fit and if I wasn’t too far wrong with my figure then he could well win this comfortably. Plenty of buts in there but there’s compensation in the price and it looks like he’s being backed.

[HawkWing]

McGinty's Dream won in a hack off 2lbs lower last November over course and distance. Not the first time he has looked as a horse with more talent than his lowly mark. Has struggled to settle since, a couple of times looking unrideable and went off my radar until last time out when he was settled well, travelling well at half-way, looking like he was about to run a good race. He walked through one and that was that. Taking a swing at the 33/1 tomorrow. Hexham 5.05

[Desert Orchid]

Swinton Hurdle - Cormier 25/1 - I went very high with Cormier (25/1) earlier in the season and I'm sure I put it up on here in at least one of its last two races but he hasn’t franked the form. I’m not yet convinced my figure is wrong and the hood which was left off last time is back on and I’ve now read that he lost a shoe the time before. If he’s fresh, well and fit and if I wasn’t too far wrong with my figure then he could well win this comfortably. Plenty of buts in there but there’s compensation in the price and it looks like he’s being backed.

I'm not going to claim he would have won but he had a more troubled passage than a haemorrhoid sufferer the morning after eight pints of Guinness and a vindaloo.

Don't know if it was bad luck or bad jockeyship.

[Desert Orchid]

Another pop at the Victoria Cup - Kaeso 100/1, 7 places - clearly has had issues in the last couple of seasons but was 11/2f when beaten a head by Raising Sand here in the £150k International in 2019 (GS). Now 2lbs better off with the 14/1 shot.

I'm also having a very small win bet on Stone Soldier (28/1) which I put up at 100/1 (ims) in the Lincoln but it skipped the race and hacked up on the all-weather where it's much higher-rated. Sickness insurance only.

[Desert Orchid]

Copied from the Derby thread:

I have to say, it looks like the Derby is falling apart in front of our eyes.

With this in mind, I've taken a small poke at Gear Up at 40/1. I presume he'll run in the Dante (Johnston's only entry) and he's already got a decent level of form, having won the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud last back-end (10f, heavy) and should stay. He's already got the same RPR as Youth Spirit achieved yesterday and a nice run at York wouldn't do his chances any harm.

For good measure, I've doubled him with Dubai Fountain (14/1) in the Oaks.

[Outsider]

We all have views on horses,some right,most wrong but when I first started watching for eye catchers a horse caught my eye in Ireland I was certain wasnt trying with a view to hcaps.it took him a long time but eventually it won.i think it was backed from 12s into 6s and guess what,I missed it.well it is now down to run in the topham so I've risked a little,no point lumping on in case it doesnt run.
SNUGSBOROUGH HALL 25/1 and a little win on betfair at 79/1.

Won a hcap hurdle today.it was backed from 20s into 6s last night so I wouldnt back it at that price.won by a sh HD at 15/2.typical.

[moe]

I couldn’t remember who it was that had mentioned Snugsborough Hall but when I saw that it had won today I was both kicking myself for not noticing that it was running and hoping that whoever had fancied it before had had a bet today. It always happens when I decide to have a day off from listening to WHill radio.

[Maxbet]

I couldn’t remember who it was that had mentioned Snugsborough Hall but when I saw that it had won today I was both kicking myself for not noticing that it was running and hoping that whoever had fancied it before had had a bet today. It always happens when I decide to have a day off from listening to WHill radio.

Snugsborough Hall to go close in the 7.00, (had a second look at the race).

Excellent course form around here, (1231), which included large fields. 16's a very fair price for him.

What happened at the start? Sounded like a complete mess to me.

I've not seen it, Moe.

I'm watching the snooker.

It's interesting at the crucible.

[Marb]

I missed it myself. Well in on hurdles rating it was. I wish I had it in my tracker.

[moe]

I thought you’d mentioned it as well, Marb.

[Outsider]

MORDRED 450y 28/1 6p.
Dont know what to expect as it was sold out of Hannons to Webber so this could be getting ready for a hurdles campaign.finished 2nd on g/s at york.the price is right though.

[Desert Orchid]

On the York thread Outsider put this one up:

I think BRIAN THE SNAIL 18/1 is worth a go tomorrow.seems to handle all goings.been running well in stakes races.on sporting life they had him running off 102 so off a mark of 91 would give him a chance.drawn 19 which I'm uncertain about.
Typical hard sprint hcap.

I agree and it now qualifies for the thread at 22/1, 6pl. These are my own thoughts:

Brian The Snail is interesting. Last summer his Turf and AW marks were the same but he spent the late autumn and winter on synthetics which saw his OR go up from 89 to 102. He gets in here off 91 but there’s no evidence that he needs all-weather surfaces to show that level. Chester last week looked like a prep, being back over the minimum trip in a non-handicap.

The price drift doesn't bother me.