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  1. #41
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    martin

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  4. #42
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    Cracking pick, Marb.
    “Today’s scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality. ”
    ― Nikola Tesla

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  6. #43
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    Its only January 9th but hard to see a 66/1 been topped in 2021 on the longshot thread , well done Marb

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  8. #44
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Nice one Marb, hats off.

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  10. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Nice one Marb, hats off.
    Feckin everything off!
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  12. #46
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    Truthily though, Boreham Bill should never have been a 66/1 to one shot on form anyway, imho. How he went off 66s with me getting 80's for my wee yankee I'll never know. The volatility of the market did this I guess. I just wish I'd trusted my own judgement more by doing a decent each way single on the horse. With him being such a big price I simply assumed having him in an each way yankee would be enough, but in hindsight I should have done the each way single.
    Last edited by Marb; 9th January 2021 at 10:07 PM.

  13. #47
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    Top tipping Martin. Superb.

    I've been out of commission for a few days, and given he's a horse I like it definitely would have prompted me to back him. As a consequence of only just surfacing for air for the first time in a few days I didn't have a penny on.

    It's definitely good to get a big one in the back so early in the year, and well done for putting it up on here.

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  15. #48
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    Fairyhouse 3.30 Thimbleweed, each way.

    Thimbleweed was formerly trained by Ralph Beckett. This could run well on its now reduced handicap hurdle mark. A small each way for me. Above and beyond everything else, she has a nice name, so, there you go.

    I might put in a back to lay off in running too.
    Last edited by Marb; 12th January 2021 at 4:24 PM.

  16. #49
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    I just thought I might as well get this one formally on the thread.

    Betfair Hurdle, Solo 28/1.

    The reasoning is all on the thread dedicated to the race. If they were serious when they talked about the horse in the same breath as Zarkandar (won this race off 151) after last season's Adonis, he should be a single-figure price.

    I got 38 to coffee money last week on Betfair. His price might well go the same way as PD'O's last year when I took 14/1 ante-post and he won at something like 33/1 but if he drifts again I'll just go in again.

    Obviously his price is based on his poor form since the Adonis but I'm happy to strike a line through every one of those runs given how they campaigned Pic D'Orhy ahead of his win in this race last season.

    I was tempted to put it on the Will Win thread but chickened out
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  17. #50
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    In opposition to DO (granted, not always a wise move), I'll put up Llandinabo Lad in the Betfair Hurdle - 20/1 Hills: shorter everywhere else except Exchange.

    Gets in here off same mark/weight as Solo, but has a much more progressive profile (imho). Came out the Kennel Gate best at the weights, despite not having race run to suit. Will want to be held-up off a strong-pace in a big field (more or less guaranteed here). Yard continues to click-along nicely, and novices have a good recent record in the race.

    I like this one a lot.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 13th January 2021 at 3:10 PM.
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  19. #51
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    Sounds like the type I'll end up backing too, GH. Just isn't on my radar yet as I had never heard of it until you mentioned it a week or so ago and I haven't got round to checking it out.

    I reckon I've just been obsessing a wee bit about what mark they were engineering for Solo!
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  20. #52
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    We'll need to rename this to the Betfair hurdle thread then because my arra has landed on a 50/1 chance; Highway One o Two.

    He was 3/3 in novice hurdles, culminating in a fairly impressive win in the Dovecote. That race is proving to offer much stronger form than the aforementioned Adonis with the third home Kid Commando taking the listed handicap at Ascot earlier this season off 136, the fourth home; Buzz running 3rd in the Welsh Champion before hosing up in an Ascot class 2 off 137 and then narrowly failing to back that up off 148 behind Not So Sleepy. Two places further back in 4th in that Not So Sleepy race was Benson, running off a mark of 137 having previously gone 3/3 so far this season, most recently with a listed handicap win at Ascot. Prior to that run of three successive wins Benson finished off last season by also running in the Dovecote - he finished 8th, 32 lengths behind Highway One o Two.

    So of the Dovecote runners...

    West Cork 2nd, beaten just over 4 lengths was highly thought by Skelton but hasn't run since
    Kid Commando 3rd, beaten 7 1/2 lengths. Now rated 140
    Buzz 4th, beaten 17 1/2 lengths. Entered here (also has a speculative entry in the Champion hurdle) off 152
    Benson 7th, beaten 32 lengths. Now rated 137

    That is strong form and entitles Highway One o Two to a mark in the region of high 140s at least and yet he gets in here off 141 and actually receives 11lb from Buzz having beaten him convincingly last time they met off levels. Buzz is currently fourth fav for this.

    The downside - hence the price - is that he's had an aborted novice chase campaign after falling on debut (when fav to beat Hitman) and then unseating next time out.

    His subsequent run over hurdles can surely be forgiven as they'd no doubt wanted to give him a confidence boosting run back over them before aiming to exploit a lenient mark.

    He'll love the likely soft ground we get in February and 50/1 is a crazy price.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 13th January 2021 at 3:56 PM.
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  22. #53
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    I'd agree with you Wilson, also the last run over hurdles, he drifted like a barge on the day from 5's out to 11's I think .
    The next day the trainer announced that there was a bug in the yard affecting a few of their runners.

  23. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    We'll need to rename this to the Betfair hurdle thread then because my arra has landed on a 50/1 chance; Highway One o Two.

    He was 3/3 in novice hurdles, culminating in a fairly impressive win in the Dovecote. That race is proving to offer much stronger form than the aforementioned Adonis with the third home Kid Commando taking the listed handicap at Ascot earlier this season off 136, the fourth home; Buzz running 3rd in the Welsh Champion before hosing up in an Ascot class 2 off 137 and then narrowly failing to back that up off 148 behind Not So Sleepy. Two places further back in 4th in that Not So Sleepy race was Benson, running off a mark of 137 having previously gone 3/3 so far this season, most recently with a listed handicap win at Ascot. Prior to that run of three successive wins Benson finished off last season by also running in the Dovecote - he finished 8th, 32 lengths behind Highway One o Two.

    So of the Dovecote runners...

    West Cork 2nd, beaten just over 4 lengths was highly thought by Skelton but hasn't run since
    Kid Commando 3rd, beaten 7 1/2 lengths. Now rated 140
    Buzz 4th, beaten 17 1/2 lengths. Entered here (also has a speculative entry in the Champion hurdle) off 152
    Benson 7th, beaten 32 lengths. Now rated 137

    That is strong form and entitles Highway One o Two to a mark in the region of high 140s at least and yet he gets in here off 141 and actually receives 11lb from Buzz having beaten him convincingly last time they met off levels. Buzz is currently fourth fav for this.

    The downside - hence the price - is that he's had an aborted novice chase campaign after falling on debut (when fav to beat Hitman) and then unseating next time out.

    His subsequent run over hurdles can surely be forgiven as they'd no doubt wanted to give him a confidence boosting run back over them before aiming to exploit a lenient mark.

    He'll love the likely soft ground we get in February and 50/1 is a crazy price.
    I've completed my trawl of the weights and followed you in, wilsonl, pretty much for all the reasons you mention, plus anticipated improvement into the second season. I could only get 40/1 but that's still too long assuming it gets there.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  24. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    The horse was formerly trained by Willie Mullins, before switching to Venetia Williams yard about two years ago.

    Upon changing trainer, Didero Vallis won on his second and third start over fences, over distances which appeared to make him look like a 2M4F chaser.

    The past eighteen months or so, the horses best performances were when fifth in the Brown Plate at the Cheltenham festival behind Siruh Du Lac.

    He was then second on boxing day 2019 at Wetherby, when splitting race winner Top Ville Ben, and the eventual third horse horse home Lake View Lad.

    Top Ville Ben and Lake View Lad are both very good chasers on their day, which is illustrated by the fact they're both rated in the 160's now. They are the type of horses who could run in something like the Ultima Chase at the festival with every chance in their own right.

    I'm interested in Didero Vallis off a mark of 130 on Saturday. This also happens to be his last winning mark, but this 3M6F test will be a totally different test of stamina which he may actually revel in.

    I just think he's shown plenty over the shorter distances, showing that there is talent that has probably yet to be fully discovered. He may out run big odds in this different type of chase, the real staying contest and jumping contest that it is.

    I'll have a look the best odds and terms nearer the race time.
    Ah, interesting times.

    Didero Vallis runs in the classic chase at Warwick tomorrow. This race probably a tad easier than his entry in the Welsh National last week. I have to back him in this now!!

    He's 16/1 best priced but maybe someone will offer up 20s in which case he's my longshot tomorrow. The stable had three winners yesterday didn't they?
    Last edited by Marb; 15th January 2021 at 1:53 PM.

  25. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Ah, interesting times.

    Didero Vallis runs in the classic chase at Warwick tomorrow. This race probably a tad easier than his entry in the Welsh National last week. I have to back him in this now!!

    He's 16/1 best priced but maybe someone will offer up 20s in which case he's my longshot tomorrow. The stable had three winners yesterday didn't they?
    The three winners were on Wednesday, but more significantly were all ridden by Charlie Deutsch - does the fact that he rides the other Venita horse not concern you?

  26. #57
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    Nah not really.

    Someone said something on this forum the other day, about the ability or capability of jockeys on given horses sometimes being exaggerated.

    If the horse is good enough, Tom Scu is fine with me.
    Last edited by Marb; 15th January 2021 at 3:37 PM.

  27. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Nah not really.

    Someone said something on this forum the other day, about the ability or capability of jockeys on given horses sometimes being exaggerated.

    If the horse is good enough, Tom Scu is fine with me.
    My point was more being that Deutsch would obviously have had first choice and chose the other - I'm assuming he had the choice?

  28. #59
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    I think jockeys tend to pick horses on who they perceive has the best, recent/relevant form.

    The fact his stablemate has more compelling recent form won't make any difference in terms of how Didero Vallis performs, imho. Didero is a seriously well handicapped horse.

    I'm holding out for 20's or bigger.
    Last edited by Marb; 15th January 2021 at 5:03 PM.

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  30. #60
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    I've taken the 20's each way. He might go bigger tomorrow or tonight but I'm happy.

    Didero running several pounds out of the weights to boot, but I'm not overly concerned.
    Last edited by Marb; 15th January 2021 at 7:12 PM.

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