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Thread: The 2021 Longshot Thread

  1. #61
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    An ante-post longshot for the Festival:

    Cepage 40/1 NRNB (PP) Ryanair

    I'm coming up with G1 figures for his Chepstow win the other day. The Ryanair is his only current festival entry although it's possible he goes for a handicap instead, hence I took the lower odds with the concession.

    It's arguably the hottest race of the meeting but if my figure is correct he wouldn't have many to fear, assuming they also run.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th January 2021 at 6:10 PM.
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  3. #62
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    I always think of that demolition job that Cepage did at Newbury. When he runs it always makes me think of Liam.

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    There's about nine horses showing blue on oddschecker in the classic chase.

    This means no one has a crystal ball into the race. It's a good sign if you're backing an outsider.

    See what the market does tomorrow.
    Last edited by Marb; 15th January 2021 at 8:10 PM.

  5. #64
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    An ante-post longshot for the Festival:

    Cepage 40/1 NRNB (PP) Ryanair

    I'm coming up with G1 figures for his Chepstow win the other day. The Ryanair is his only current festival entry although it's possible he goes for a handicap instead, hence I took the lower odds with the concession.

    It's arguably the hottest race of the meeting but if my figure is correct he wouldn't have many to fear, assuming they also run.
    Running him in the Ultima last year instead of the Plate was a horrendous call.

  6. #65
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Looks like I've only got one longshot for today.

    Warwick 1.15 Dustin Des Mottes 50/1

    This is the Sky Pirate - Amoola Gold race so it's easy to see why this one is a big price but there has to be a chance Sky Pirate is there to warm up for something bigger and Amoola Gold is up 5lbs for not winning last time so there has to be a chance he's nearing a seasonal plateau, or might he have a bigger target somewhere down the line too?

    These two could well dominate the finish but they could also under-perform in what is a pretty modest race.

    Dustin Des Mottes requires a bit of leap of faith but he had some decent form when rated in the mid-130s and gets in here off 128. He only weakened after the last over two and a half at Stratford on his penultimate start (off 132) and his heavy Ludlow defeat might have come too soon after that.

    He has since been bought out of the Newland yard so maybe the change of scenery will perk him up.

    Obviously it's an exercise in desperate straw-clutching but on his best form he should be no bigger than 10/1 in a race with credible doubts about the opposition.
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  7. #66
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Another festival longshot:

    Paul's Saga 20/1 Stayers' Hurdle

    I don't follow the French form too closely - perhaps Martin or Bachelors Hall can tell us more - but when I looked at the adjusted RPRs for the Stayers' Hurdle, seeing this one second top rated (behind Benie Des Dieux who probably won't go for this) pricked my curiosity.

    She seems to have come pretty much from out of the blue this season (on RPRs) but won the Grande Course de Haies, beating the 30/100f L'Autonomie, giving her 5lbs into the bargain, 10 lengths clear of a subsequent G1 winner in Galop Marin (who beat her in that race).

    There's bound to be somebody on here who studies these things more than me but I don't recall RPRs going very high for French form so these high ratings in G1 races suggest the French stayers are pretty decent.

    25/1 is available but I played safe(r) with the NRNB concession. The chances are if she turns up she'll be a single-figure price and if RPRs are accurate she could well win.

    She just strikes me as a possible bit of value.
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  9. #67
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Two longshots, as much for the sake of getting them on record as anything else...

    Yesterday I backed Mother Earth 25/1 for the 1000G. (I might have put it on the ante-post thread - if I didn't I meant to.)

    I was checking out Simon Rowlands's blog on cadence/frequency and something caught my eye and when checking it out I came across Mother Earth's run at Keeneland and I think she would probably get a big mark-up for it so she might end up the Coolmore #1 for the race.

    Also, snowed in, locked down and therefore with time to kill, I followed Marb's lead and took a look at Meydan today, just the turf races.

    In the 3.05, I've taken 22/1 Halimi, 4 places. This was with the gentleman Jim Bolger until his retirement and was developing an overall improving profile, including a smart-looking win in the Petingo (£90-odd k). He's 5lbs higher here but might improve more than that. He's now with Simon Crisford, a trainer I really rate (excellent strike rate) and the horse might be less exposed than most of the higher rated horses but he's very near the top on my own figures anyway so the price strikes me as a bit of value, especially with the extra place on offer.
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  11. #68
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    In the 3.05, I've taken 22/1 Halimi, 4 places. This was with the gentleman Jim Bolger until his retirement and was developing an overall improving profile, including a smart-looking win in the Petingo (£90-odd k). He's 5lbs higher here but might improve more than that. He's now with Simon Crisford, a trainer I really rate (excellent strike rate) and the horse might be less exposed than most of the higher rated horses but he's very near the top on my own figures anyway so the price strikes me as a bit of value, especially with the extra place on offer.
    Kept on for fourth. First Flat bet of the year to run so I'll take that as a warm-up
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Kept on for fourth. First Flat bet of the year to run so I'll take that as a warm-up
    Thanks.i joined you.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just getting a wee bit ahead of things for Saturday:

    Ascot 3.00 Louis' Vac Pouch 33/1 5pl (Sky) - trainer has a happy knack of landing gambles with unlikely types at this track on Saturdays with only a handful of runners per year. He was rated 144 when running behind (hampered) Simply The Betts at the festival and gets in here off 132 following some modest runs which obviously require forgiving. At the price with the extra two places, I reckon it's worth a wee bite.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 21st January 2021 at 6:50 PM.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Just getting a wee bit ahead of things for Saturday:

    Ascot 3.00 Louis' Vac Pouch 33/1 5pl (Sky) - trainer has a happy knack of landing gambles with unlikely types at this track on Saturdays with only a handful of runners per year. He was rated 144 when running behind (hampered) Simply The Betts at the festival and gets in here off 132 following some modest runs which obviously require forgiving. At the price with the extra two places, I reckon it's worth a wee bite.
    Came in to 25/1 and blue generally, which had my hopes up but it's out to 40s generally now so I've gone in again with the BOG and fifth place offered. Just fun money as per with these bets.
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  18. #72
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Now look what you’ve done, Desert. I NEVER back at these prices, but the thread intrigues me. I would have posted up I K Brunel, Ascot 1:50, but he’s come in from 22/1 to 14/1 atm. I’ve had a little interest (God forbid).

  19. #73
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Go easy on yourself, barjon.

    It's okay not to be okay.
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  20. #74
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    I can never get the Kirby horses right but hate it if they win/place and I don’t back them. I’ve also backed Jonniesofa in the same race. It’s a long way from the Dobbin’s to Ascot and he won really well when I listened to his last race in the radio. He has come in from the 33/1 I backed him at last night.

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    Plumpton

    4.20 Magens Moon is available at 20/1. She started off in Ireland with top Irish trainers but now trained by Phil York. She won two handicap hurdles here a little while ago on soft and good ground. She might have needed her last run which was her first start of the season. She races off a mark of 99 tomorrow, which is identical to her last winning mark at Plumpton. She's possibly still fairly handicapped over hurdles.
    Last edited by Marb; 24th January 2021 at 8:29 PM.

  22. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Plumpton

    4.20 Magens Moon is available at 20/1. She started off in Ireland with top Irish trainers but now trained by Phil York. She won two handicap hurdles here a little while ago on soft and good ground. She might have needed her last run which was her first start of the season. She races off a mark of 99 tomorrow, which is identical to her last winning mark at Plumpton. She's possibly still fairly handicapped over hurdles.
    Backed it aswell for pretty much the same reasons as you, actually has won twice over C&D and as you say if you forgive the last run on the grounds that he needed it after over 400 days off, then 20/1 is massively overpriced

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  24. #77
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    Yeah let's hope the meeting isn't abandoned.

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    Nearly 1pm still no decision on Plumpton.

    The staff must really be trying hard to get it on.

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    Thought I’d better follow you two on Magens Moon but had to back Air Hair Lair too as I always back Sheena at Plumpton.

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    Was tanking along then went out like a light.

    Apologies.

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