Page 35 of 50 FirstFirst ... 25303132333435363738394045 ... LastLast
Results 681 to 700 of 985

Thread: The 2021 Longshot Thread

  1. #681
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2017
    Posts
    153
    Thanks
    39
    Thanked 36 Times in 28 Posts
    1:50 Goodwood

    Two against the field at prices.

    Rochester House 20/1 Bet365, Hills

    Blinkers on first time and should go from the front and try and last it out. 2nd in this race last year beaten a neck by Just Hubert. Won’t mind the ground either way it goes and has the master Fanning on board.

    Kloud Gate 40/1 various books

    Bit of a speculative one this but went off 10/1 off top weight in this race in 2018 and although the race was weaker (top rated horse was Kloud Gate off 93) he was still fairly competitive until 2 furlongs out but by that point Lil Rockerfeller had the race sewn up and Moore looked after the horse from then on. He gets in today’s race off 90 but is carrying a much lower weight, granted against much better horses but if the ground doesn’t go bottomless I think he can outrun his odds today.

  2. #682
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Path Of Thunder into 4/1 fav . Wasn't expecting that but won't complain

    Hannon's only runner now is Qaysar 25/1 so I'll be backing him as well, despite the draw. Sickness insurance.
    POT now 11/4 and 5/2. That's a helluva move. I might lay off for a no-risk interest.

    I've also gone in again on Qaysar at 50/1 to six places. I'd be kicking myself if I didn't have the BOG and it won (or even placed) at that kind of price.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  3. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (30th July 2021)

  4. #683
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nickf88 View Post
    1:50 Goodwood

    Two against the field at prices.

    Rochester House 20/1 Bet365, Hills

    Blinkers on first time and should go from the front and try and last it out. 2nd in this race last year beaten a neck by Just Hubert. Won’t mind the ground either way it goes and has the master Fanning on board.

    Kloud Gate 40/1 various books

    Bit of a speculative one this but went off 10/1 off top weight in this race in 2018 and although the race was weaker (top rated horse was Kloud Gate off 93) he was still fairly competitive until 2 furlongs out but by that point Lil Rockerfeller had the race sewn up and Moore looked after the horse from then on. He gets in today’s race off 90 but is carrying a much lower weight, granted against much better horses but if the ground doesn’t go bottomless I think he can outrun his odds today.
    You don't post often enough, nickf88. I like your thinking.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  5. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    nickf88 (30th July 2021)

  6. #684
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Quote Originally Posted by nickf88 View Post
    1:50 Goodwood

    Two against the field at prices.

    Rochester House 20/1 Bet365, Hills

    Blinkers on first time and should go from the front and try and last it out. 2nd in this race last year beaten a neck by Just Hubert. Won’t mind the ground either way it goes and has the master Fanning on board.

    Kloud Gate 40/1 various books

    Bit of a speculative one this but went off 10/1 off top weight in this race in 2018 and although the race was weaker (top rated horse was Kloud Gate off 93) he was still fairly competitive until 2 furlongs out but by that point Lil Rockerfeller had the race sewn up and Moore looked after the horse from then on. He gets in today’s race off 90 but is carrying a much lower weight, granted against much better horses but if the ground doesn’t go bottomless I think he can outrun his odds today.
    Yes I second you on Rochester House.

    Good luck.

    I've never backed him before but I had a look at the form and I've come round to his cause today.
    Last edited by Marb; 30th July 2021 at 11:09 AM.

  7. The Following User Says Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    nickf88 (30th July 2021)

  8. #685
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2020
    Posts
    401
    Thanks
    160
    Thanked 73 Times in 64 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Another one for the Golden mile.
    SHELIR 40/1 been kept to 7f lately but 1m is within its capabilities
    I’ve backed Shelir too. Also Hortzadar at 20’s.

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to moe For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (30th July 2021)

  10. #686
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Both very understandable bets.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #687
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,074
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    539
    Quote Originally Posted by moe View Post
    I’ve backed Shelir too. Also Hortzadar at 20’s.
    I have to say that I did have a saver on Hortzadar at 33s.

  12. #688
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2017
    Posts
    153
    Thanks
    39
    Thanked 36 Times in 28 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    You don't post often enough, nickf88. I like your thinking.
    Can only apologise for how bad those two ran.

  13. #689
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Rochester suffered an injury, Nick.

    I hope not fatal.

    Roll on next race.

    Baeed backed like a certainty, will anything get near?

    Peretto to out run the odds I reckon.
    Last edited by Marb; 30th July 2021 at 2:17 PM.

  14. #690
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Geees.

    Baeed good or what...

  15. The Following User Says Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    barjon (30th July 2021)

  16. #691
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2017
    Posts
    153
    Thanks
    39
    Thanked 36 Times in 28 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Rochester suffered an injury, Nick.

    I hope not fatal.

    Roll on next

    Baeed backed like a certainty, will anything get near?

    Peretto to out run the odds I reckon.

    Fingers crossed not fatal. Johan in the next but horrible day so far for me.
    Last edited by nickf88; 30th July 2021 at 2:53 PM.

  17. #692
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,074
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    539
    Well,I did 2 of O'mearas and he has 2nd and 3rd but not my two.good run from Bedouin story but 5th.

  18. #693
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Goodwood 3.40 Barbill

    A freaky type who I once thought was an Ayr Gold cup type but can run a huge race at big odds sooner or later. In fact he was a decent 9th in the Wokingham against Rohaan. Maybe Mick Channon has laid him out for this. Watch the betting.

    Each Way. 100/1
    Last edited by Marb; 30th July 2021 at 4:18 PM.

  19. #694
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Goodwood 3.40 Barbill

    A freaky type who I once thought was an Ayr Gold cup type but can run a huge race at big odds sooner or later. In fact he was a decent 9th in the Wokingham against Rohaan. Maybe Mick Channon has laid him out for this. Watch the betting.

    Each Way. 100/1
    On my radar too.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #695
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,074
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    539
    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Goodwood 3.40 Barbill

    A freaky type who I once thought was an Ayr Gold cup type but can run a huge race at big odds sooner or later. In fact he was a decent 9th in the Wokingham against Rohaan. Maybe Mick Channon has laid him out for this. Watch the betting.

    Each Way. 100/1
    Yes,he took chairmanof theboard out.so I should do it.

  21. #696
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    I've edited this post to transfer it to a more appropriate thread.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 30th July 2021 at 7:54 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #697
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,074
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    539
    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Stewards cup TINTO 33/1 carries 12lb less than last year and 15 if Ghiani still claims 3.

    Another I will probably do is HELLO JONESY 6lb less.did me a big turn last year.
    Gone in again with w.hill 66s boosted to 75.53/1.needs to break well.come on tinto.

  23. #698
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2020
    Posts
    401
    Thanks
    160
    Thanked 73 Times in 64 Posts
    Is there a draw bias in the race?

  24. #699
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by moe View Post
    Is there a draw bias in the race?
    I'm thinking high.

    Plus the ability to stay slightly further than the distance running at!
    Last edited by Maxbet; 31st July 2021 at 12:26 PM.

  25. #700
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,399
    Thanks
    996
    Thanked 1,222 Times in 925 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    Drawbias say:

    “The six furlongs at Goodwood is run over a straight course, and it appears that it is an advantage to be drawn low. This advantage is more significant the larger the number of runners.”

    Please note as from 30th March 2011 Stall numbering on right handed courses was switched, so that the inside stall is always stall number 1. However the results have been plotted in the chart below as if the stall numbering has always been his way at Goodwood. So for instance if there was a winner from stall 12 of 12 prior to 2011, this would be plotted below as stall 1 of 12.

    Didn’t seem to be the case yesterday, though.
    Last edited by barjon; 31st July 2021 at 1:02 PM.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •