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Thread: The 2021 Longshot Thread

  1. #861
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Another longshot for Saturday - in the mile race - Lord Glitters 100/1. Got an amateurish ride in the Strensall, his best performance since he won the Queen Anne a couple of years back, suggesting he is as good as ever and can probably be marked up a bit for it, and probably wasn't over it next time out. On best ratings, he should be fourth in the market. I'll need one of the top three to under-perform on the day but I still think 100/1 is at least five times his true price.
    66/1 five places on B365 is a great play for the exact reasons you have mentioned.

  2. #862
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beef or Salmon View Post
    66/1 five places on B365 is a great play for the exact reasons you have mentioned.
    I take it I'll have to dig into the B365 site to find that, BoS?

    (Normally I never look beyond the terms laid out at oddschecker.)
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  3. #863
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I take it I'll have to dig into the B365 site to find that, BoS?

    (Normally I never look beyond the terms laid out at oddschecker.)
    Yes go on to the site, select Lord Glitters and once you click on the e/w button a drop down list appears with reduced odds for extra places.

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    Sir Busker in the Balmoral e/w at anything 25/1 downwards with Bet365 e/w extra. 20/1 6 places is good but I've taken the 18/1 7 places.

    Loves the Ascot straight course and a strong pace. Wasn't beaten far in the Queen Anne and doesn't have to concede too much weight all round. Is hopefully drawn well in 3.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Balmoral - Saltonstall 25/1, 7 pl - Plenty in his favour in terms of overall form (2nd top on RPRs), a decent draw (10), won three times last October-November, and good 5lbs claimer.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th October 2021 at 3:47 PM.
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    BALMORAL

    I've always thought a high draw was best at ascot but a lot of fancied horses are drawn 10 or lower.
    The gosden horse could well be a good thing but I'm going to stick with the horse I put up a/p
    MARIE DIAMOND drawn 1 33/1 should give me a good run for my money.was in the lead on the wrong side in the Cambridgeshire at this distance so 33s looks a bit of value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Balmoral - Saltonstall 25/1, 7 pl - Plenty in his favour in terms of overall form (2nd top on RPRs), a decent draw (10), won three times last October-November, and good 5lbs claimer.
    Trainer said in Dundalk he expects a seriously good run ... GL


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    Mile - Benbatl 25/1, 4 pl - Rated 126 this time two seasons ago after a demolition job in a decent G2. Wears the Godolphin first colours and is probably a better horse than Master Of The Seas which is only 11/1 tops. The ground might be a concern, though, but I think the price is worth taking with the extra place on offer.
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    50p ew CELTIC DANCER 230c 40/1

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    450Nb LUNAR JET 33/1 hasnt run well for a while hence the price but hes 3/3 at Newbury on going softer than good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    450Nb LUNAR JET 33/1 hasnt run well for a while hence the price but hes 3/3 at Newbury on going softer than good.
    I always love when I back a 'mad one' and someone who knows what they are talking about puts it up as well!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beef or Salmon View Post
    I always love when I back a 'mad one' and someone who knows what they are talking about puts it up as well!
    It wasnt last Beef.lol

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    Ascot 2.10 - Bathsheba Bay 40/1 - returns after a spell on the sidelines but was ready to run at the start of the month (at least it was only withdrawn on account of the fast ground), has been 'allowed' a couple of pounds for his absence and Nicholls uses a 5lbs claimer. Hard to imagine a better race for which it might make the cut, it's a Saturday handicap, it's Nicholls...

    Being in Spain, I can only use my Unibet account so no extra places for me but I did the odds boosted to 45/1.
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    Asc 3.20 - Didero Vallis 25/1 - few jockeys ride this CD better than Deutsch and Williams targets these races. The horse strikes me as a relatively late improver and I'm very surprised at the price. I'd have been prepared to back it single-figure odds.
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    Although I've done Maze Runner as my main bet its stablemate WHISKY SOUR 50/1 is of interest with a good 7lb claimer on.
    345N

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    Good luck,O.
    Saved on Maze Runner, but main bet on Royal Illusion.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Although I've done Maze Runner as my main bet its stablemate WHISKY SOUR 50/1 is of interest with a good 7lb claimer on.
    345N
    Twp against the field for me, based on their hurdles marks: My Sister Sarah and Jukebox Jive (both 25s + boosts, covered by the fav).
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    November handicap.

    Wells Farhh go 33/1 or 28/1 7places sky bet.

    Has been running in stakes races and has now dropped to a decent mark.

  27. #879
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    November handicap.
    I’ll have to back that one given that I’ve recently been having a ding dong battle with TNTFedex (passport delivery, long story….)and FedEx were, I believe, originally Wells Fargo. Can’t ignore coincidence bets.
    Wells Farhh go 33/1 or 28/1 7places sky bet.

    Has been running in stakes races and has now dropped to a decent mark.

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  29. #880
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    Greatwood Hurdle - Ballyandy 33/1 - now 8lbs lower than when a good second to the chucked-in The Shunter (and 11lbs lower than the mark he was put up to for that run), his two best career runs (on RPRs) were over the minimum trips at this track last autumn and he's had a pipe-opener in the last month, presumably with this race in mind. This time last year he was in the best form of his life (again, on RPRs) and his current mark is probably an over-allowance for his advancing years and a couple of modest performances. His price might not shorten up much in the coming week or so but I'm happy to get involved this early because I think the price is plain wrong. That said, I haven't been much cop with these longshots recently
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 4th November 2021 at 6:48 PM.
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