Results 1 to 17 of 17

Thread: Punting Advice

  1. #1
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,594
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts

    Punting Advice

    Each way punting. Do you do it? Is it worth it? My thought is no, don’t do it. If the horse can’t win why would you back it in case it ‘sneaks’ a place.

    If this is a blindingly obvious question i apologise. But this year I’m somewhat in profit, and I’m certain that’s cause I’ve stopped looking for the ‘each way angle’ or it could be im just reading races slightly better or just getting lucky.

    I’d just like to know how others go about their punting.

    P.S. Forgot about multiples, I’ve stopped going for the jackpot and been very strict on just backing singles or short priced doubles. Going for the Hollywood multiples every week soon adds up.

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    I did 100 tweets on punting last Xmas. Forgive me for not being able to motivate myself to give you a proper answer but there is method to some if not all of what you are saying.

    https://twitter.com/freddy6T6/status...187622400?s=19
    Last edited by Slim; 28th December 2020 at 1:26 AM.

  3. #3
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,594
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    I did 100 tweets on punting last Xmas. Forgive me for not being able to motivate myself to give you a proper answer but there is method to some if not all of what you are saying.

    https://twitter.com/freddy6T6/status...187622400?s=19
    I’d love to know how long that took
    I only skim read then but I’ll have a good look tomorrow. Genuinely trying to soak in as much as I can. My grandad was a bookie and he always said if you’re unsure ask for advice, so this is me...

    I see you say play multiples, and I did last year. But on a average weekend card, I’d have say 5-9 bets. How would you play them in multis? What’s the best play? Lucky 15s etc or split them into doubles/trebles? My bad habit was playing each way multis. Finding a few ‘could run into a place’ horses at silly odds and whacking them in a lucky.

  4. #4
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    E/W lucky 15s are the best bet by the maths but I personally like doing win lucky 15s. The most extreme I do is an 8 horse Lucky 15 perm (x14 lucky 15s). 4 winners guarantees you a treble up.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,204
    Thanks
    354
    Thanked 778 Times in 666 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Bookies hate consistency which bought me my first car..a Hillman Hunter

    How? Studied every racing paper there was read every story 6 days a week and on a Saturday backed 3 horses at an average of 7/2

    3 x 10 doubles and a 20 treble

    You need one treble to break even out of 50

    all the doubles and any other winning trebles become profit

    You will never lose a great amount but can end up winning plenty

    I only stopped because I started riding out became friends with several northern jockeys and was getting good info..which is another story

    You bet every day you will lose unless by some miracle you have a 6 horse accie up
    Last edited by Tanlic; 28th December 2020 at 3:32 AM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  6. #6
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,735
    Thanks
    2,965
    Thanked 3,499 Times in 2,755 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Each way punting. Do you do it? Is it worth it? My thought is no, don’t do it. If the horse can’t win why would you back it in case it ‘sneaks’ a place.

    If this is a blindingly obvious question i apologise. But this year I’m somewhat in profit, and I’m certain that’s cause I’ve stopped looking for the ‘each way angle’ or it could be im just reading races slightly better or just getting lucky.

    I’d just like to know how others go about their punting.

    P.S. Forgot about multiples, I’ve stopped going for the jackpot and been very strict on just backing singles or short priced doubles. Going for the Hollywood multiples every week soon adds up.
    Simon Rowlands in his ATR/Timeform blogs, like Slim, is an advocate of each-way betting when the maths favour it.

    I'm more reluctant to go each-way with single-figure prices but with bookies offering boosted odds and extra places it is a prudent route to take.

    Some people don't mind either way. I often mention my brother (the one who punts) on here. He punts £2w/£1ew as he would have a nosebleed if he risked a fiver on anything but tends to keep in front. I mentioned Gardefort in my email to him last Saturday when I put it up on the longshot thread at 28/1 and he backed it win only. I think he thought it would either win or blow out. Either that or he just didn't check the price. He just laughed it off so there's an element of mindset involved. Is it just a bit of fun or are you trying to make money.

    In the last year or so I've been forced to tip the balance more towards recreation but I still take the studying part quite seriously.

    The bottom line will always be [perceived] value, which is first and foremost what I'm looking for. Find two or three that are longer prices than they should be and if you're right (the hardest part) you should stay in front in the long term. Combine them in doubles and trebles and you will compound the value, as mentioned elsewhere last week.

    EG - find three 4/1 shots that should be 2/1 each and you're also getting 24/1 instead of 8/1 each double and 124/1 rather than 26/1 the treble. **

    I would suggest experimenting again with the multiples to very small stakes to see how it goes. For example, if you're normal bet is £20w or £10ew, go for £2w/£1ew doubles/trebles until you have a clear picture of where your fortunes are heading. If they're heading south it's easy enough to stop doing them. It might suggest your selection process (something I have been through myself) is flawed but it's always something to learn from.

    Good luck and may all your winners be value prices

    (** Bear in mind, mathematically it's still 1/8 and 1/26 that you're gonna lose!)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th December 2020 at 10:32 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  7. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Double J (28th December 2020)

  8. #7
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,406
    Thanks
    999
    Thanked 1,224 Times in 927 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Each way punting. Do you do it? Is it worth it? My thought is no, don’t do it. If the horse can’t win why would you back it in case it ‘sneaks’ a place.

    If this is a blindingly obvious question i apologise. But this year I’m somewhat in profit, and I’m certain that’s cause I’ve stopped looking for the ‘each way angle’ or it could be im just reading races slightly better or just getting lucky.

    I’d just like to know how others go about their punting.

    P.S. Forgot about multiples, I’ve stopped going for the jackpot and been very strict on just backing singles or short priced doubles. Going for the Hollywood multiples every week soon adds up.
    I’m with you, DJ, win singles only. Prefer to save on a threat (if the market indicates one) to my selection rather than EW. Rarely back anything beyond single figures and the vast majority below 6/1. Occasional EW fun bets on longer odds fancies when 5/6 places offered.

    Won’t back drifters (or add to them if I’ve taken a smallish early price), but frequently add if they go the other way.

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to barjon For This Useful Post:

    Double J (28th December 2020)

  10. #8
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,037
    Thanks
    1,475
    Thanked 1,565 Times in 1,119 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    I don’t think you can be dogmatic about it. Every horse has its price under certain race conditions.

    Betting each-way against shorties in novice chases is often rewarding - Monkfish and Shishkin excluded.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 28th December 2020 at 10:50 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  11. #9
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,204
    Thanks
    354
    Thanked 778 Times in 666 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    I don’t think you can be dogmatic about it. Every horse has its price under certain race conditions.

    Betting each-way against shorties in novice chases is often rewarding - Monkfish and Shishkin excluded.
    or novice hurdles?
    Formely Fist of Fury

  12. #10
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,037
    Thanks
    1,475
    Thanked 1,565 Times in 1,119 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    There’s more margin for error in novice hurdles, so slightly less appealing to me personally.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  13. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,594
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    If one thing this proves, everyone has different ways and angles for which they bet on. I’ll keep betting this NH season the way I am, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.

    Always nice to know different ways though of exploiting markets. Particularly novice Chase ones as Grass has mentioned.

    I just often find myself in a sulk on a winning day that I didn’t whack winning singles in a lucky or something of that note. Probably just greed, but I’ve been disciplined this year and it seems to be working somewhat better.

    The losers still leave a very bitter taste, especially when you put a line through the winning horse

  14. #12
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,735
    Thanks
    2,965
    Thanked 3,499 Times in 2,755 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    I just often find myself in a sulk on a winning day that I didn’t whack winning singles in a lucky or something of that note.
    Been there, done that, got a cupboard full of the tee-shirts...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  15. #13
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,406
    Thanks
    999
    Thanked 1,224 Times in 927 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Been there, done that, got a cupboard full of the tee-shirts...
    You must have pinched all mine

  16. #14
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,735
    Thanks
    2,965
    Thanked 3,499 Times in 2,755 Posts
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  17. #15
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,355
    Thanks
    828
    Thanked 1,044 Times in 885 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    I’m with you, DJ, win singles only. Prefer to save on a threat (if the market indicates one) to my selection rather than EW. Rarely back anything beyond single figures and the vast majority below 6/1. Occasional EW fun bets on longer odds fancies when 5/6 places offered.

    Won’t back drifters (or add to them if I’ve taken a smallish early price), but frequently add if they go the other way.
    Agree with much of this; stick to the first half-dozen in the market and won't miss many winners. occsaionally bet longer, but never on price alone.

  18. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Posts
    212
    Thanks
    6
    Thanked 29 Times in 24 Posts
    Beware of the overrounds on IRE racing

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Overrounds by country racetype.JPG 
Views:	54 
Size:	116.6 KB 
ID:	2642

  19. #17
    Senior Member walsworth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    North Herts
    Posts
    1,543
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 64 Times in 49 Posts
    The only time I occasionally bet each way is if I am at the track and it is just a day out.
    Serious betting is done win only, rarely more than 10 runners and normally confined to first three in the betting.
    I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
    Take a bow for the new revolution

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •