Turning in I thought he was going to kick on and **** up, Keith then got busy when the race was lost and he was 20 lengths down.Originally Posted by Bonjers
Steering job when hes on his going day, ive just invested in him for the Grand Annual again.
Bonjers (16th January 2021)
I’m amazed Jonjo has let Sky Pirate run & win today. I just don’t get why. Wasn’t a big purse and he’s looking at another 6 or 7 lb. Now he’s proven his mark was exploitable but is going to struggle to win a Grand Annual off a low to mid 150s.
But what surprised me more was bookies shortening him for the race. Perfect opportunity to steal some money, especially if you’re not NRNB.
Was really keen on him for the Annual, even before LTO - in another thread - but think he’s blown his mark
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
English trainers are stupid #176
Jonjo isn't English?.
So if he trains a winner at Cheltenhan what country will it be acknowledged as?
Last edited by Slim; 16th January 2021 at 11:43 PM.
Loophole. DEUCE
Last edited by Frankel; 17th January 2021 at 12:06 AM.
All comers, all grounds, all beaten!
This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.
I couldn't agree more. I suspect you, I, and many others backed him for the Grand Annual after the International Meeting, believing there was more to come at the Festival. I expected Jonjo to run him in a hurdle if he needed a run. When I saw him entered yesterday I assumed it was for a jog around to keep him ticking over, and even backed Amoola Gold against him. Confidence rising when there was no real money for Sky Pirate.
Now though I'm a layer, and over the next day or two I'll take the profit on the Exchange. There's just no way he'll be far enough ahead of the handicapper now. There will be several horses plotted at this, and he isn't looking like a plot, and when he gets a revised mark he'll surely be close to his ceiling.
However, perhaps there's a feasible Plan B, and they have their eye on something else because JP or Fran Berry has told him one of his is going to be a stone or more well in. We know JP loves the race and he has several likely types. Given the closeness of the relationship Jonjo would be told this I'm sure, so has he just taken the win while he can? He has a very attractive looking hurdles mark now, and maybe a switch to the County Hurdle is on the cards perhaps?
I was thinking along similar lines.
As I said yesterday, that's a bit of a wild card entry he holds for the Betfair Hurdle but I haven't checked back on his hurdles form yet, mainly because it's hard to see him being well enough handicapped for it but he doesn't pick up the penalty. Jonjo only has one other entry, Soaring Glory, who doesn't look an obvious plot either. It was in my mind that Jonjo has had word from Ireland about one or two, not necessarily owned by JP, who are very strongly fancied for the Grand Annual and has decided he might as well make hay in Div II races. There's another one at Doncaster at the end of the month that's usually quite valuable but never as ferociously competitive as the GA.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Maybe Jonjo was just being realistic, and doing right by his owner?
Hoovering-up £18K in an uncompetitive handicap at Warwick, whilst all the big yards are vaccinating horses, rather than chance it in an admittedly much more valuable race, but one where you’ll run into any amount of horses, that have been specifically laid-out for it.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 17th January 2021 at 12:36 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
I could buy into that scenario Nick but for the fact the horse was so easy to back . If it was a shoe in there's no way the stable would have let it trade at over 2/1 on BF
If it was easy to back yesterday, then it’s hard to imagine they’d be confident he was a kick for a race like the Grand Annual, no?
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
And therein lies the problem. It's just plain odd all round. You can normally find a reason, but in this case the only rationale would be part of a wider or different less obvious plot.
What we do know is the circles Jonjo moves in, and the information he's likely to be privvy to, and the answer to Sky Pirate running and winning yesterday lies in there somewhere you'd think. It's surely possible the Tedham's have been told something like Aramax wins the Grand Annual so don't waste your time, and Jonjo has decided on a different plan.
I think it's feasible that they've taken a race while they can, although I can't explain why he was unbacked or why this one. And then they will try and exploit Sky Pirate's hurdle mark at the Festival or in a big race somewhere. The only other alternatives I can offer is Jonjo Jnr messed up by winning and it wasn't the plan, which I doubt because it didn't look that way, or that Jonjo has had an aberration which I wouldn't completely discount.
If I'm honest I'm not 100% convinced by any of those theories, but I'm left scratching my head for any other plausible explanations.
Pundit Ben Linfoot at the sporting life has floated the idea he may be entered in the Arkle.
And he raises something that I suspect we'd all forgotten. He's a very experienced novice. I think that could well be the answer.
Last edited by Maruco; 17th January 2021 at 2:41 PM.
If he goes up 8lbs for yesterday he'll still only be on 153, a fair bit off what you'd anticipate of an Arkle winner.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Agreed. I couldn't have him for either race. I haven't checked yet but I'd guess Energumene put up a better rating at Naas in the week in what was only his second race over fences, than Sky Pirate has ever done in 10+chases. And that one is place material at best.
If he was a low to mid 150's novice after two or three races you could see him still improving. But he he isn't, so he doesn't have the same scope to improve from a low 150's base when compared to pretty much all of the field.
Anyone know what date the handicap entries for the Cheltenham handicaps are published?
I've been looking at some Irish races/form and there's horses that would be highly interesting if entered in the festival handicaps.
Assuming the Irish horses are allowed over to the meeting!
Should be Thurs 18th February
"The owls are not what they seem"
Cheers, DG. in theory that gives me four weeks to save up to get a bet on once those entries come out.
Sky Pirate +7 (152)
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