Road to the Stayers Hurdle

[HawkWing]

Not the greatest sign for Eglantine that she has been sold.

[Desert Orchid]

Fuxake... has Paul's Saga lost a leg or something? Odds against??

I'm worried now. I have her in a lumpy win double with Allmankind.

[Desert Orchid]

That wasn't the same horse I saw scoot round Auteuil at pace, jumping very fluently.

I can make allowances for her needing the run (as the trainer warned) and not going fast enough over a shorter trip but...

[Grasshopper]

I have to say, DO, in my experience, horses rarely scoot round Auteuil at pace......the races are generally run at a bit of a crawl.......certainly, they’re a lot more sedate than we’d see over here (likely due to ground generally being bottomless).

[Desert Orchid]

Have you seen the video, GH?

I watched it for the first time earlier today and was quite taken aback at how fast they appeared to be going in what was reportedly heavy ground. The 30/100 favourite set out in front, clearly intending to grind her field into submission but could never shake off Paul's Saga who nabbed her near the line. They were strung out like washing behind.

The likes of Rameses De Teillee and Agrapart - I can concede that the latter is on the downgrade but he was tailed off anyway - couldn't get near the lead from an early stage.

Anyway, my initial disappointment today has subsided. I checked Easysland and noted he was well below form and noted he was a long way below form over here in November but will probably be odds-on in March. Maybe Cottin has decided there's no point in having Paul's Saga 100% until it matters.

I've gone in again at 33/1 NRNB.

[Grasshopper]

Off the cliff with this one then, DO?

Fair enough. Good luck with it - I suspect you’ll need it.

[Desert Orchid]

It's more a case of my general tendency not to let one bad run put me off a horse, to be honest.

If the odds are longer as a result of one bad run it makes the odd occasion when events justify my quirks all the sweeter

[archie]

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...QlkgJgGMgtQmvY

[Marb]

Fury Road, Ronald Pump, and Sam's Profile all potential runners in the Boyne Hurdle on Sunday.

My heart likes pump, my head likes Sam.

[Desert Orchid]

Fair to say my speculative punt on Main Fact can be consigned to the ever-filling bin.

[Maxbet]

Ronald Pump has suffered a setback which has ruled him out of the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Trainer Matthew Smith reports it is not serious and is optimistic his stable star will be back in action at the Punchestown Festival at the end of April.

“He’s thrown a splint. It’s going to set him back a few weeks,” said the County Meath handler.

“He did a piece of work last week and was in great form. He’s fit so we’re hoping, fingers crossed, he’ll make it to Punchestown.

“Thankfully it’s nothing serious. He’ll just need a few quiet weeks.”

[Marb]

Glad he's not seriously injured.

Having backed Sam's Profile each way, Pump was a credible contender that I don't have to worry about now.

[Diamond Geezer]

Sam's Profile out of the Festival, leg infection.

[Marb]

Aw bugger. Thanks for the heads up, DG. I've had the horse in a chunky each way patent. All NRNB. So no damage done.

[Flaggers]

There might be some value out there with Lisnagar and maybe a few others but the more I look at it, if he has no memory of his issue last year does Paisley Park not just win!?

I’ve seen a lot of people in various places say Thyme Hill will beat him. But Coleman got PP in so much trouble at Ascot and still got up off level weights.

[Euronymous]

Thyme Hill was sent for home too early that day.

[Flaggers]

In the Thyme Hill camp then Euro! He’s going to need to be sent for home early as PP we know will come like a train late so he can’t leave it too long

[wilsonl]

Not entirely sure I agree. The more of a test it is the more it'll suit Paisley Park.

The best way to get him beat is to turn it into somewhat of a sprint. But easier said than done as there are some dour stayers in there, not least the reigning champ

[Desert Orchid]

But easier said than done as there are some dour stayers in there, not least the reigning champ

LO is definitely a dour stayer but he got away with it in a duff renewal (as well as PP's excusable disappointment) and I can't see it happening again. He is a 158-160 horse at best and should be nowhere near the business end of a proper Stayers' Hurdle.

[wilsonl]

I'm not suggesting he will be DO, though I did have a small e/w interest when he was 50s (posted on here) as that price was just plain wrong.

My point is/was, it won't turn into a speed test - and rarely does. Strong stamina will win this year's renewal.