Page 7 of 11 FirstFirst ... 234567891011 LastLast
Results 121 to 140 of 212

Thread: Road to the Stayers Hurdle

  1. #121
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    It's too strong a race for some random Frenchie this year. Maybe last.

    And Fury Road is 20s I think. Strong Festival form

  2. #122
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Is she really a 'random' Frenchie?

    With the allowance, she's rated higher than any of the favourites [on RPRs]. It will be interesting to see what mark the handicapper gives her.

    Edit
    According to France Galop, she's rated 79.o [kg], which equates to 174. I don't know if that already factors in the sex allowance but it is still pretty high.

    I have no idea if the cross-channel ratings are directly comparable but it still seems high.

    As I said before, maybe Martin/Irish Stamp or Bachelors Hall will know more.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th January 2021 at 3:05 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  3. #123
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    Will she stay. Form all seems sub 3m and don't they crawl round?

  4. #124
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Will she stay. Form all seems sub 3m and don't they crawl round?
    PFN wants the trainers title. I see Aintree with this mare
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  5. The Following User Says Thank You to granger For This Useful Post:

    prince regent (11th February 2021)

  6. #125
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Will she stay. Form all seems sub 3m and don't they crawl round?
    Highest RPR so far (159, plus the 7lbs) was over 3m 1.5f in heavy at Auteuil. Second highest RPR was staying on second over 3m at the same track, both in G1s. I would suggest those races are probably truer tests than some of the Listed/G3 kid-on events on these islands.

    I'm very open to the idea that this is a stupid bet but I'm happy to have a bit of fun at the price with the NRNB concession.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  7. #126
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,592
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    PFN wants the trainers title. I see Aintree with this mare
    Sure i read Hendo would need over 100k a week with Nicholls mot getting anything to beat him. Titles in bag

  8. #127
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    701
    Thanks
    199
    Thanked 52 Times in 44 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Will she stay. Form all seems sub 3m and don't they crawl round?
    They crawled around in last years renewal....

    Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk

  9. #128
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    And that year when the jockey bottled it on Sam Spinner.

    Kind of think quality renewal means a better pace though

  10. #129
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,592
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    Anyone think Benie will rock up here? Mullins sends horses to races he thinks he can win.

    Concertista could be better than her in a Mares hurdle.

    He has a host of horses he could run the Mares Chase and win.

    He has nothing for the stayers?

  11. #130
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Cheltenham
    Posts
    3,687
    Thanks
    346
    Thanked 379 Times in 314 Posts
    Benie goes in the Mares chase.
    Last edited by tiggers1972; 25th January 2021 at 11:02 PM.

  12. #131
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    701
    Thanks
    199
    Thanked 52 Times in 44 Posts
    I would say mares chase most likely, followed by mares hurdle, with the starters being the outsider of the 3. Will be interesting to see where Roksana goes.

    Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk

  13. #132
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    Mares chase
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  14. #133
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,592
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    Do you listen to Ruby? Watched the Road To Cheltenham, and he’s basically poured cold water on the idea of Benie going to the Stayers. Disappointing

  15. #134
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    The horse hadn't been right. If she runs in the mares it's by default.
    Last edited by Slim; 6th February 2021 at 7:27 AM.

  16. The Following User Says Thank You to Slim For This Useful Post:

    Double J (6th February 2021)

  17. #135
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Do you listen to Ruby? Watched the Road To Cheltenham, and he’s basically poured cold water on the idea of Benie going to the Stayers. Disappointing
    He is still a part of the Mullins decision-making team!!!

  18. #136
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Copied from the Longshot thread:


    Paul's Saga 20/1 Stayers' Hurdle

    I don't follow the French form too closely - perhaps Martin or Bachelors Hall can tell us more - but when I looked at the adjusted RPRs for the Stayers' Hurdle, seeing this one second top rated (behind Benie Des Dieux who probably won't go for this) pricked my curiosity.

    She seems to have come pretty much from out of the blue this season (on RPRs) but won the Grande Course de Haies, beating the 30/100f L'Autonomie, giving her 5lbs into the bargain, 10 lengths clear of a subsequent G1 winner in Galop Marin (who beat her in that race).

    There's bound to be somebody on here who studies these things more than me but I don't recall RPRs going very high for French form so these high ratings in G1 races suggest the French stayers are pretty decent.

    25/1 is available but I played safe(r) with the NRNB concession. The chances are if she turns up she'll be a single-figure price and if RPRs are accurate she could well win.

    She just strikes me as a possible bit of value.
    You’ll be happy to know she’s running at Warwick on Saturday, en route to the Stayers.

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/memb...horizon/472599

    Non members

    French Champion Hurdle winner Paul's Saga is set to break new ground on Saturday at Warwick when she will become the first French-trained horse to compete in Britain since the end of the post-Brexit transition period.

    In doing so she will lay a pathway for trainer David Cottin leading up to next month's Cheltenham Festival, where Paul's Saga could line up in the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle, while Easysland is on course to defend his crown in the Glenfarclas Chase over the cross-country fences.

    Travel in and out of Britain for both horses and people has been complicated not only by leaving the European Union but by the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. But with help and guidance from Jockey Club Racecourses – owner of Warwick and Cheltenham – both Paul's Saga and Jason Kiely, a key component in the Cottin operation, have arrived safely ahead of the Close Brothers Warwick Mares' Hurdle.

    Kiely described the various hoops which both horse and staff have to jump through as "doable but complicated".

    His quarantine will be cut to five days through the 'test to release' scheme, while the horse travelled on a 'carnet de voyage', a pass which comes at a one-off payment for the year, as opposed to the VAT-deposit scheme whereby 20 per cent of the value is paid on entry to the country and can be redeemed from HMRC at a later date.

    Describing his own journey, Kiely said: "I drove Paul's Saga over as a transporter and I dropped her off at a satellite yard, where a nominated member of staff looks after her while I quarantine in my hotel. I've got another test in Heathrow on Thursday to be deemed negative, then I'm cleared to look after my horse and take her racing."

    The BHA and the UK government have nominated certain major race meetings likely to attract foreign participation as qualifying for the elite athlete exemption scheme and festivals such as Cheltenham and Aintree could require visiting staff only to pass a test either side of travel, with the quarantine period on arrival reduced to as little as 24 hours.

    "By the sounds of it Cheltenham is going to be easier because of the elite status," said Kiely. "You can only bring one person per horse and you have to test negative. There'll be extra costs but it's Cheltenham, isn't it?"

    The end of the tripartite agreement on the free movement of horses has burdened connections with a whole host of extra paperwork and costs when looking to move animals in or out of Europe.

    Kiely said of the whole operation: "It's probably going to cost three and a half grand to run, with the tunnel, coming over a couple of days in advance, vet's tests, Covid-19 tests and the carnet de voyage."

    Brian Hughes is booked to ride Paul's Saga at Warwick and Kiely said: "The race on Saturday doesn't make great financial sense unless she wins but she needs to run. It's all very doable but it's complicated and it's two or three weeks of planning for this specific race."

    Cottin's neighbour in Chantilly, Hugo Merienne, is looking at running dual Cagnes-sur-Mer winner Margaret's Legacy in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton at the end of the month, although he does not expect to send staff to saddle the horse.

    "With Brexit and Covid it's got harder but if there is no change in the rules it should be possible to come over and the horse is in good form right now," said Merienne, who spent time working for Willie Mullins before taking out his own licence.

    "I'm fortunate to have plenty of friends in England who can take care of the horse and I think Tom Ward or Gary Moore might be able to help out. The jockey, Ned Curtis, will have to go five days before, but he is English and has a house there so that's all right."

    How travel plans will take shape for Irish participants at the festival are currently being explored by Irish and British racing authorities.

    IHRB senior medical officer Dr Jennifer Pugh told the Racing Post: "Discussions and plans are under way in conjunction with Cheltenham racecourse and the BHA to ensure the safe participation of the Irish contingent at Cheltenham and will be in line with both Irish and UK public health guidelines. Information will be issued to all involved in the coming days."
    Last edited by wilsonl; 9th February 2021 at 9:34 PM.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  19. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to wilsonl For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (9th February 2021), edgt (11th February 2021), Outsider (11th February 2021), tiggers1972 (9th February 2021)

  20. #137
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle – Thursday, 18 March
    Bacardys
    Bachasson
    Beacon Edge
    Captain Zebo
    Champ
    City Island
    Decor Irlandais
    Diol Ker
    Donna's Diamond
    Emitom
    Flooring Porter
    French Dynamite
    Fury Road
    Honest Vic
    If The Cap Fits
    Imperial Alcazar
    Itchy Feet
    Jacamar
    Kemboy
    Lil Rockerfeller
    Lisnagar Oscar
    Main Fact
    McFabulous
    Next Destination
    Paisley Park
    Reserve Tank
    Ronald Pump
    Sam Spinner
    Sams Profile
    Sire du Berlais
    The Mighty Don
    The Storyteller
    Thomas Darby
    Thyme Hill
    Tobefair
    Vinndication
    Younevercall
    Benie des Dieux
    Great White Shark
    Heaven Help Us
    Paul's Saga
    Roksana

    Withdrawals:
    Dame De Compagnie
    Kalashnikov
    Bapaume
    Sixshooter
    Commander Of Fleet
    Call Me Lord
    Vision Des Flos
    Ask Dillon
    Last edited by Maxbet; 10th February 2021 at 3:56 PM.

  21. #138
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    You’ll be happy to know she’s running at Warwick on Saturday, en route to the Stayers.
    Nice mention for her from Timeform:

    Paul’s Saga
    Close Brothers Warwick Mares’ Hurdle, 14:05 Warwick
    Paul’s Saga caused a surprise when landing the Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil – the French Champion Hurdle – at Auteuil in October, finding plenty to lead on the run-in having been five lengths down on the home turn. She had shown smart form the previous autumn, winning the Prix Carmarthen and Prix Leon Olry-Roederer, but her performance in the Grande Course de Haies was a clear career best and a big improvement on recent efforts. She ran to a similar level when again winning the Prix Carmarthen and finishing runner-up in the Grand Prix d'Automne last time, and that form sets a clear standard in this listed contest, putting her nearly a stone clear on weight-adjusted ratings.
    She is trained by David Cottin, who enjoyed Cheltenham Festival success with Easyland in the cross-country last season, and could have the Stayers’ Hurdle on her agenda. She is currently around the 16/1 mark for that race and is a really interesting runner on her first start in Britain.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #139
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Paul’s Saga
    Close Brothers Warwick Mares’ Hurdle, 14:05 Warwick

    ...but her performance in the Grande Course de Haies was a clear career best and a big improvement on recent efforts. She ran to a similar level when again winning the Prix Carmarthen and finishing runner-up in the Grand Prix d'Automne last time, and that form sets a clear standard in this listed contest, putting her nearly a stone clear on weight-adjusted [Timeform] ratings.
    I thought I'd check out the implications of this.

    Pauls Saga apart, the highest OR in the field is that of Eglantine Du Seuil on 145.

    Assume for now that this is also her Timeform rating.

    Pauls Saga is giving her 6lbs.

    Assume "nearly a stone" = 13lbs.

    This means Pauls Saga is rated 19lbs higher than EDS, ie 164.

    On top of that, she'll get 7lbs from the males.

    Ergo, a male will have to be better than 171 to beat her.

    I can't imagine any of them will have that kind of rating on current form. Even on RPRs, the top two male stayers are Paisley Park and Flooring Porter on 165.

    I'm going in again on Pauls Saga.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 11th February 2021 at 8:57 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  23. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Desperate Dan (11th February 2021), edgt (11th February 2021), Outsider (11th February 2021)

  24. #140
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Leyland
    Posts
    18,859
    Thanks
    336
    Thanked 833 Times in 691 Posts
    Her Timeform rating in their last annual was 151


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •