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Thread: The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

  1. #41
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I accept every word of that, Maruco, but she was already that much better than him before the race and was expected to do that to him in it. I could understand clipping her by about half a point on the back of a performance that showed she was as good as her market position suggested but they've over-reacted. If the money piles in for her then fair enough they have books to balance but I can see her price lengthening again a wee bit and we know Hendo likes to get them beat at odds-on somewhere along the way to take the pressure off expectations.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. #42
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Don’t think we learned anything new yesterday, other than her well-being is confirmed, and she’s still still very good.

    If her price holds all the way through, it’s going to make space for some decent each-way bets come the Festival, I would imagine.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 29th November 2020 at 11:30 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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  3. #43
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    It was impressive to watch, especially her speed over and after the last but she had a 10lbs advantage at the weights and only works out the equal of Sceau Royal.

    The bookies are at it, slashing her price on the back of that.
    Sceau Royal having had two runs; was surely at his peak against a slightly (pre-race drift in the market) ring rusty Epatante though DO. She will surely come on for the run, scarey!
    Last edited by Maxbet; 29th November 2020 at 11:47 AM.

  4. #44
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Hasn’t she run more or less to expectations, though?

    On a line through the rags, she’s ran to about 155 unextended. Granted, she might (probably will) improve, but she tends to go well fresh anyway, so it’s perhaps debatable whether she’s going to find a whole lot more.

    The race was a total odd-ball. In those circumstances, I usually reserve some degree of caution about what was achieved.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    She is easy on the eye and finishes to the eye cruising

    I for one think she is better than given credit for and wish the other notable mares in racing had campaigns as adventurous
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  6. #46
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    She is easy on the eye and finishes to the eye cruising

    I for one think she is better than given credit for and wish the other notable mares in racing had campaign's as adventurous
    I think that is down to Hendo knowing the time of day with a Champion hurdle winner!

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    And has won a champion, and seems to have the ideal racing style for the Champion. And the Morgiana was messy, and Goshen is MIA. The price cut is understandable.

    It was one of those confident rides where a mistake at the last could have made Coleman look silly. Sceau Royal didnt miss a beat up the straight and flew the last couple. She picked him up and cleared away without much pressure. The price cut is understandable in my book. If there was any doubt that she was the one to beat (it was only Sharjah in second in Chelt etc), there is no doubt now. I remember the gamble on Tuesday morning last year. "The lads" know what they have.

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    As expected, Goshen gets the Bula/International Hurdle entry on Saturday, in a trappy race he needs to be winning well, to have any Champion Hurdle pretensions.

    Moore says he runs as long as he scopes well, and there's no firm in the going.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 7th December 2020 at 3:12 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    As expected, Goshen gets the Bula/International Hurdle entry on Saturday, in a trippy race he needs to be winning well, to have any Champion Hurdle pretensions.

    Moore says he runs as long as he scopes well, and there's no firm in the going.
    Nick, if there's any firm in the going I'll give up.
    Played Golf yesterday a few miles from the course and it was like a swamp!
    Agree that Goshen needs to be winning this to have any aspirations of winning the CH.

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    If Nicky trained him we’d be worried if he said that though................

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    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    The International told us what we already knew!
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Where are the ratings guys?

    The Champion Hurdle now looks a 3 horse race.

    Epatante
    Saint Roi
    Abacadabras

    Song For Someone will run. Not good enough.
    Honeysuckle won't run
    Goshen has a heart issue. Could still run but not going off single figures
    Concertista won't run
    Aspire Tower will run but a lot to find
    Boveur Dair. Will know at Xmas but hard to see
    Saldier meh
    Sharjah meh
    Coeur Sublime meh


    So of the front 3 hit me with your ratings.

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    I’m not a ratings man. But I asked in November for the books to price me JP owning the 1,2,3 in the Champion Hurdle. They wouldn’t give me one.
    (On the notion Buveur will be running)

    I want to believe Saint Roi is the one, he’s the one who’s carrying my dosh. Not sure any of them can give Epatante 7 pounds though.

    Jockey bookings will be interesting. Am I to assume Coleman keeps the Epatante ride?

    I like Aba as well, going to take a ride of the season to deliver him to win I feel though.

  16. #55
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    Coleman would definitely ride. They wouldn't want Nico on a good horse.
    Last edited by Slim; 12th December 2020 at 10:40 PM.

  17. #56
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    It’s Epatante and then clear daylight. All of Saint Roi, Abacadabras, and Saldier can improve further though. The question is how much.

    If you’d seen him out Saldier is probably the best value, but you’d want cash out, and on balance I prefer Willie’s two to Abacadabras.

    The truth is though we’ve not yet seen Epatante extended, and with her mares allowance I suspect she’s capable of running to the low 170’s, and I’d be surprised if any of the other three are. It’s to big a gap to bridge. I think if she turns up fit and she jumps as she usually does, she wins comfortably. She’ll just run away from them at the last flight leaving the other three and Sharjah to fight for the places.

    I think we’ll be rating her 5-7lbs better than the next best post-race.
    Last edited by Maruco; 13th December 2020 at 10:05 AM.

  18. #57
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Where are the ratings guys?

    The Champion Hurdle now looks a 3 horse race.

    Epatante
    Saint Roi
    Abacadabras

    Song For Someone will run. Not good enough.
    Honeysuckle won't run
    Goshen has a heart issue. Could still run but not going off single figures
    Concertista won't run
    Aspire Tower will run but a lot to find
    Boveur Dair. Will know at Xmas but hard to see
    Saldier meh
    Sharjah meh
    Coeur Sublime meh


    So of the front 3 hit me with your ratings.
    I've shelved my stuff until midweek but have put my ratings up here often enough. The 'Road to' series with Ruby and Lydia looked at official ratings the other day.

    From the Weekender, these are the current top hurdlers (editing out the stayers) on RPRs:

    Aramon 163
    Aba 161
    Saint R 161
    JTM 160
    S Streak 160


    Someone somewhere has clearly had a brain fart of some sort with Epatante not quoted, unless those are purely this season's ratings, which I think must be what's at play since Bristol De Mai has the top chase rating.

    If I remember during the week I'll look at the CH market and post my ratings for the front ten.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 13th December 2020 at 11:32 AM.
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  19. #58
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    ORs

    Epatante
    162
    Saint Roi 157
    Abacadabras 158

    Song For Someone 156 (up to 161 on Tuesday?)
    Honeysuckle won't run
    Goshen has a heart issue. Could still run but not going off single figures
    Concertista won't run
    Aspire Tower 155
    Boveur Dair. Will know at Xmas but hard to see
    Saldier 159
    Sharjah 164
    Coeur Sublime 152

    Silver Streak 158 (up to 159 on Tuesday?)
    Sceau Royal 158

    If we're just looking at the top 3, they're possibly about right at the moment and last season's novices should improve but I can't see that improvement being anywhere near enough in March particularly as both seem to have their own ideas about how much effort is required.
    The older I get the better I was.

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  21. #59
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    Song For Someone rated higher than 2 of the leading Irish contenders

  22. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    ORs

    Epatante
    162
    Saint Roi 157
    Abacadabras 158

    Song For Someone 156 (up to 161 on Tuesday?)
    Honeysuckle won't run
    Goshen has a heart issue. Could still run but not going off single figures
    Concertista won't run
    Aspire Tower 155
    Boveur Dair. Will know at Xmas but hard to see
    Saldier 159
    Sharjah 164
    Coeur Sublime 152

    Silver Streak 158 (up to 159 on Tuesday?)
    Sceau Royal 158

    If we're just looking at the top 3, they're possibly about right at the moment and last season's novices should improve but I can't see that improvement being anywhere near enough in March particularly as both seem to have their own ideas about how much effort is required.
    Thanks for that. Be as forgiving as you can and tell me what you think Saint Roi's celling is in March.
    Last edited by Slim; 13th December 2020 at 1:57 PM.

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