Page 33 of 42 FirstFirst ... 232829303132333435363738 ... LastLast
Results 641 to 660 of 838

Thread: The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

  1. #641

  2. #642
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    4,766
    Thanks
    77
    Thanked 175 Times in 161 Posts
    Is there a chance we get a Footpad Arkle type pace scenario where jocks get carried away. Going to be fascinating to watch.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  3. #643
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Based on times from 2 out Honeysuckle would have been beaten fully 8 lengths in last year Champion taking the trip into consideration 2m4f shee may have gotton a bit closer but it's blatantly obvious she neither has the pace or the speed to beat Epatante..4 second slowe on average last year makes that pretty clear....Ruby tells us on one breath Goshens race was a non event then tells us about his tremendous pace....seen so many horses clock good ties when racing alone so he is harder to judge.......but IMO none of them have the class to beat JP's....what could happen is something like Aspire Tower get ignored and steals the race from the top of the hill but I cant see Goshen or Honeysuckle living with Eapatante
    Last edited by Tanlic; 26th February 2021 at 11:42 AM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  4. #644
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    4,766
    Thanks
    77
    Thanked 175 Times in 161 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    what could happen is something like Aspire Tower get ignored and steals the race from the top of the hill but I cant see Goshen or Honeysuckle living with Eapatante
    Not going to be stealing a race with so much pace in it Tanlic.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  5. #645
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    you are probably right but the big 3 watching each other who knows.....contempt sneaks in to races way too often thinking that can win ignore it
    Last edited by Tanlic; 26th February 2021 at 11:55 AM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  6. #646
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Is there a chance we get a Footpad Arkle type pace scenario where jocks get carried away. Going to be fascinating to watch.
    If you can, try and find the interview Ruby Walsh did on Might Bite's RSA. He rode Bellshill. He talked about how confident he was that he was going to win early in the race because Might Bite had gone off so fast he reckoned there was no way on this earth MB could keep going. He closed to withing around 12 lengths of MB three out only to see him run away from him again. He said he couldn't believe what he had just witnessed.

    It's impossible to know how this race is going to pan out.

    If the forward-going horses stay efficient they won't be caught. As Ruby suggested last night, if they go very fast there has to be a chance on or two of them (he was talking Honeysuckle and Goshen effectively) won't stop. If they all stop, though, something will pick them up.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  7. #647
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,891
    Thanks
    84
    Thanked 318 Times in 204 Posts
    Yeah. There are two types of strong pace really. Not So Sleepy and For Pleasure taking them out, trying to conserve energy when they can through smooth jumping or clever jockeyship perhaps, with hold up horses waiting for them to inevitably fall back and pick them off through 'class'. And having front runners who want a stiff test of stamina and whose interests are NOT best served by slowing the pace down. Those hold up horses need to go after them.

    On last years Champion Hurdle, there was about 100 yards coming down the hill where I thought Le Patriote could do a Norton's Coin. There is a chance that it was an awful race won by a good horse.
    Last edited by HawkWing; 26th February 2021 at 12:46 PM.

  8. #648
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,308
    Thanks
    813
    Thanked 1,031 Times in 874 Posts
    Nah; Goshen makes all, and Jamie laughs at those trying to lay up with him.

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to reet hard For This Useful Post:

    barjon (26th February 2021)

  10. #649
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,398
    Thanks
    995
    Thanked 1,221 Times in 924 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Nah; Goshen makes all, and Jamie laughs at those trying to lay up with him.
    the only danger is Jamie falling off as he squirms around looking for challengers.

  11. #650
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Based on times from 2 out Honeysuckle would have been beaten fully 8 lengths in last year Champion taking the trip into consideration 2m4f she may have gotten a bit closer but it's blatantly obvious she neither has the pace or the speed to beat Epatante..
    Let's bear in mind, as you say, they have run 4 furlongs more up to whatever point in the race you want to call it from. Coming off the bend in the Champion, only two horses are not being driven...Epatante...fairly swinging away, the other is Petit Mouchoir. In the Mare's race, they start racing slightly earlier, and it's Blakemore who starts to test Benie's stamina and races from that point, the two of them drawing right away.
    If you think about what she did in the Leopardstown race, where Petit Mouchoir is leading until halfway between the 3rd land 2nd last, then Honeysuckle opens up and turns on the taps, making it stamina from there on in..Petit comes under pressure immediately and can't stay with her, he tails off. He hadn't done any more than he did in front in the Champion, but Honeysuckle did him over 40L, Epatante a mere 11L. And the finishers that came after her couldn't close the gap. Their speed was negated by her pace....We have talked enough about the tactics to know that this is going to be about pace, and for most of them, their top speed run is going to start before the second last. I think Honeysuckle has proved she has pace Tanlic!

    Edit: She's 4 seconds faster than Drop The Anchor (joint Fav for the County) giving him a stone!!!
    Last edited by Maxbet; 26th February 2021 at 1:26 PM.

  12. #651
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    If the forward-going horses stay efficient they won't be caught. As Ruby suggested last night, if they go very fast there has to be a chance on or two of them (he was talking Honeysuckle and Goshen effectively) won't stop. If they all stop, though, something will pick them up.
    Blakemore, who is an excellent judge of pace, is riding a horse that can be ridden with waiting tactic's, or as we have seen many times, from the front. She has a simple task of following Goshen, sitting off him at whatever pace she feels isn't going to compromise her race, pressuring him if she feels his Jockey has gone too fast, test him for the same reason. I feel she can ride the perfect race and if it falls short of victory, then we have probably seen a monster.

    The Mare's race last year was 4 seconds below standard slower than the Champion HDL, 3 seconds slower than the Supreme...but they ran 4 furlongs more. Break the 2 miles into 4 parts, that's an average of 4 seconds per half mile slow...break the Mare's race into 5 parts, they're 4 seconds per half mile slow and they did more work!
    Last edited by Maxbet; 26th February 2021 at 1:52 PM.

  13. #652
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,308
    Thanks
    813
    Thanked 1,031 Times in 874 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    Blakemore, who is an excellent judge of pace, is riding a horse that can be ridden with waiting tactic's, or as we have seen many times, from the front. She has a simple task of following Goshen, sitting off him at whatever pace she feels isn't going to compromise her race, pressuring him if she feels his Jockey has gone too fast, test him for the same reason. I feel she can ride the perfect race and if it falls short of victory, then we have probably seen a monster.

    The Mare's race last year was 4 seconds below standard slower than the Champion HDL, 3 seconds slower than the Supreme...but they ran 4 furlongs more. Break the 2 miles into 4 parts, that's an average of 4 seconds per half mile slow...break the Mare's race into 5 parts, they're 4 seconds per half mile slow and they did more work!
    So; if Goshen does a 'Make A Stand' say, Honeysusckle has the speed to lay up, and then pounce. In your dreams - maybe?
    Last edited by reet hard; 26th February 2021 at 3:18 PM.

  14. The Following User Says Thank You to reet hard For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (26th February 2021)

  15. #653
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    So; if Goshen does a 'Make A Stand' say, Honeysusckle has the speed to lay up, and then pounce. In your dreams - maybe?
    If....Make A Stand got it wrong the first time he tried doing a Make a Stand....

    Right now Goshen doing a Make A Stand, is but a dream...quite passionate for a flatty

  16. #654
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,308
    Thanks
    813
    Thanked 1,031 Times in 874 Posts
    No answer to the question, though?

  17. #655
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    So; if Goshen does a 'Make A Stand' say, Honeysusckle has the speed to lay up, and then pounce. In your dreams - maybe?
    I'm saying she will lay up as near as she can whilst still holding the horse together...

    Jamie Moore has to get the fractions right too..but I assume you have dreamt that he does that...

  18. #656
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    No answer to the question, though?
    I'm supposed to give an answer to an 'If'....Honeysuckle is not without pace...fact

    edit: what if the ground is running fast, will he be as effective?

    Wasn't Goshen withdrawn on several occasions because of the ground..He has been known to scope badly when the ground has a G in it...
    Last edited by Maxbet; 26th February 2021 at 4:38 PM.

  19. #657
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,308
    Thanks
    813
    Thanked 1,031 Times in 874 Posts
    It's odds-on g/s ground, and I ain't about to join a slanging match.

  20. #658
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    Let's bear in mind, as you say, they have run 4 furlongs more up to whatever point in the race you want to call it from. Coming off the bend in the Champion, only two horses are not being driven...Epatante...fairly swinging away, the other is Petit Mouchoir. In the Mare's race, they start racing slightly earlier, and it's Blakemore who starts to test Benie's stamina and races from that point, the two of them drawing right away.
    If you think about what she did in the Leopardstown race, where Petit Mouchoir is leading until halfway between the 3rd land 2nd last, then Honeysuckle opens up and turns on the taps, making it stamina from there on in..Petit comes under pressure immediately and can't stay with her, he tails off. He hadn't done any more than he did in front in the Champion, but Honeysuckle did him over 40L, Epatante a mere 11L. And the finishers that came after her couldn't close the gap. Their speed was negated by her pace....We have talked enough about the tactics to know that this is going to be about pace, and for most of them, their top speed run is going to start before the second last. I think Honeysuckle has proved she has pace Tanlic!

    Edit: She's 4 seconds faster than Drop The Anchor (joint Fav for the County) giving him a stone!!!
    She certainly didn't show exceptional pace in the mares,,,,,there was no real pace which the commentator actually remarked on...she was more dependant on finishing speed that day and was slow in comparisson to Eparatnte..fully 2 seconds slower from 3 out and 2 out.......that is slow in anyones book.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  21. #659
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,592
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    Abacadabras and Goshen are the bets in this for me. Ill be very surpised if at least one/both don’t finish in the first 2.

  22. #660
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Re Goshen..racing alone from 2 out his sectional time from the 2nd last to the last was nothing out of the ordinary no matter how it may have looked.....same as Tiger Roll and Pentland Hills a flat 39 seconds....looked much faster but an illusion
    Formely Fist of Fury

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •