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Thread: The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

  1. #221
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Abacadabras is one of those yokes where, yeah, logically he’s over-priced at 20’s in a weak Champion Hurdle......but a little something inside you dies when you have the bet, because you know he’s probably a nancy-boy too.
    Great comment. Grassy. I don’t totally agree but get the point whilst laughing.
    Aba and Indo for the Gold Cup were my first bets for this season and I’ve topped up on both in 2021. Was tempted to go in again on Aba but the scale of of the price drift leads me to think someone knows something.

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    I haven't been following too closely since Christmas (and plenty of racing has been called off), but has the Elliott yard got back to decent form?

    Racing post suggest 62 percent of his recent runners are running to RPR which seems quite a turnaround??

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    Difficult to say with any certainty given the unusual circumstances and quiet period but 1/19 this year would suggest not massively but then to check properly you'd need to consider the SPs of those runners and the placings compared to expected placings based on that.

    But he did have a couple of odds on favs turned over during that time though admittedly one was Ginto who's price was based largely on reputation and he ran into a Willie horse that could turn out to be decent too.

    I'll wait until the DRF has been run in a few weeks before making serious judgement on how his horses are running with regards ante post Cheltenham bets (assuming they get to come over) despite that meaning I could have missed the boat on some fancy prices and unfortunately it means betting any of his at the DRF will require a somewhat leap of faith.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  5. #224
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Was there a discussion here (might have been elsewhere or on the phone) about this being nothing new, that he can go through quiet spells around this time but his horses stormed the festival?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  6. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Was there a discussion here (might have been elsewhere or on the phone) about this being nothing new, that he can go through quiet spells around this time but his horses stormed the festival?
    I don't remember the particular conversation but it was something I looked at myself previously as I was convinced he was targeting certain periods. I looked at data from October 2015 - April 2020 and teh only clear and consistent trend were that his horses consistently peak in October and February each year.

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  8. #226
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    When all eyes are on Leopardstown and Limerick over the Xmas Gordon is usually stopping them for the festival handicaps.

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    "The owls are not what they seem"

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    Buveur D'Air being considered for a run at Haydock next weekend
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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    Slim (17th January 2021)

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    Willie seems to say his French recruit James De Berlais could run in this
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  14. #231
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I took 50/1 yesterday to coffee money just in case a gamble develops.

    I've done my initial trawl of the race but obviously the ratings can change if they run between now and March.

    CBO - current best odds

    Horse MON Notes CBO
    Epatante 169 +p 9/4
    Verdana Blue 169 oe d 100/1
    Silver Streak 167 ? p? 11/1
    Buveur D'Air 167 o 16/1
    Sharjah 166 8/1
    Honeysuckle 165 ? 16/1
    Song For Someone 162 p 20/1
    Call Me Lord 160 o d 100/1
    Saldier 160 25/1
    Goshen 159 p +? nov 25/1
    Abacadabras 158 nov 20/1


    I've focused for now on those with a mark of 160 or better plus last season's novices who can improve into their second season. Other second-season novices have already improved.

    Some of the ratings are based on old form in case they have a revival and the mares have their allowance included.

    d - disappointing
    nov - 2nd season novice, could improve 10lbs on the rating (if the rating is from last season)

    I've backed Buveur D'Air twice at 25/1 (the second time to make up for Aramon not running) as I have him in the low-mid 170s on his best form and I'm happy enough with that.

    If I thought I could get 100/1 NRNB Verdana Blue I'd take that too but I suspect they're targeting one of the big festival handicaps or the Ayr 'Champion' (make me laugh...) Hurdle. She doesn't even have a Betfair entry.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 17th January 2021 at 9:24 PM.
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  15. #232
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    James Du Berlais has (I’m sure) been bought as a novice-chaser for next season, and if he’s being touted as a Champion Hurdle horse, it’s as insurance against Mullins’ other candidates disappointing at the DRF.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 17th January 2021 at 10:20 PM.
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    If by chance Buve ur D'Airshows his old sparkle at Haydock what then? 25/1 has gone so well done to DO he could be single figures next week...I think the only horse that could steel a march on the field is Aspire Tower if he can get first run from 3 out....but beating the fav still looks extremely difficult
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    James Du Berlais has (I’m sure) been bought as a novice-chaser for next season, and if he’s being touted as a Champion Hurdle horse, it’s as insurance against Mullins’ other candidates disappointing at the DRF.
    Here is the quote

    The entries are being made for Cheltenham now and James Du Berlais is one we’ve put in the Unibet Champion Hurdle. He looks great and looks strong, he’s very good and I’m very pleased with him. We’ll see how he goes but probably Cheltenham and Punchestown and then back to Auteuil is more likely to happen with him rather than the Dublin Festival.
    He’d had a busy enough time in France up to now but he is one that we’re really looking forward to as a novice chaser next season.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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  19. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Buveur D'Air being considered for a run at Haydock next weekend
    Buveur entered along with Ballyandy , Chti Balko, Navajo Pass, Ribble Valley and Song For Someone.
    "The owls are not what they seem"

  20. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Buveur entered along with Ballyandy , Chti Balko, Navajo Pass, Ribble Valley and Song For Someone.
    Be suprised if its on tbh.

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    One thing that I only thought of now (perhaps this has been discussed already). What impact would amateurs (Patrick Mullins) not being allowed to ride have on the chance of Sharjah?

    It's a long time since anyone else rode him over hurdles. Will be interesting to see who is jocked up for the DRF...

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    Quote Originally Posted by littlelad View Post
    One thing that I only thought of now (perhaps this has been discussed already). What impact would amateurs (Patrick Mullins) not being allowed to ride have on the chance of Sharjah?

    It's a long time since anyone else rode him over hurdles. Will be interesting to see who is jocked up for the DRF...

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    Darragh O’Keefe? Though i suspect all that’ll be sorted by Cheltenham.

    Im hoping Nico isn’t on Buveur D’air.

    Saint Roi - Mark Walsh
    Epatant - Aiden Coleman
    Buveur D’air - Can only be Nico. Unless Hendo has another runner in it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Darragh O’Keefe? Though i suspect all that’ll be sorted by Cheltenham.

    Im hoping Nico isn’t on Buveur D’air.

    Saint Roi - Mark Walsh
    Epatant - Aiden Coleman
    Buveur D’air - Can only be Nico. Unless Hendo has another runner in it?
    Nico was on him when working the other day and will be on him this weekend if it is on.

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    Willie will go with one of his own jocks on Sharjah - one of the Mullins or if it is the first string Townend himself
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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