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Thread: Ladbrokes Trophy

  1. #41
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    Putting Ardlethen up has prompted me to mention Danny Whizzbang (novice chase cross form), who I'd back at current odds at a big each way price if I knew they intended to run.

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Saturday confirmations

    Ballyoptic Vinndication Secret Investor Beware The Bear Kildisart Sam Brown Copperhead Regal Encore Aye Right Mister Malarky Black Op Two For Gold The Conditional
    La Bague Au Roi Danny Whizzbang The Hollow Ginge Potterman Ardlethen Cloth Cap
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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  4. #43
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Thanks, DG.

    Three of my four early longshots still there.

    Siruh Du Lac presumably goes for the Massey-Ferguson, as I'd hoped.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 23rd November 2020 at 1:34 PM.
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  5. #44
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've just completed my initial trawl of the field.

    I would respectfully suggest anyone of a mind to knock the quality should have a closer look. There is an abundance of class and potential in the race.

    Not having been able to study most of last season, I had just gone with the notion that that quality more or less had to be up to scratch knowing the importance of the race but I was pretty gobsmacked at how many of the field could genuinely be fancied to beat my rating 'norm' for the race.

    Now I'm looking forward to the race even more.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  6. #45
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Copied from the Longshot thread:

    I've now done my ratings for the Ladbrokes Trophy ("Hennessy" to me) and have backed yet another longshot but I reckon this one will be my nomination to win the race come the weekend: Ardlethen 33/1.

    In a TV interview about a year ago, Skelton was asked for one horse to keep an eye on. This is the one he nominated, saying he really liked it.

    It's chance might not be obvious (hence the price) but it was a 140 hurdler two seasons ago, so should have been a 150 novice chaser last season and a 160 chaser into this, his second season. He gets to race off 138.

    First time up last season he beat Lisnagar Oscar, rated 145 when running in the 2019 Albert Bartlett. After not really taking to fences the latter came back and won the Stayers’ Hurdle in March. Ardlethen then took on the 164-rated Sam Spinner at Wetherby but couldn't match him on the run-in after challenging strongly at the last.

    I suspect that might have been when the plan for this race was hatched.

    He was slightly disappointing behind Danny Whizzbang in the good 3m novice chase at this meeting and is now 7lbs better off.

    He was then hampered in running and lost a shoe at Warwick, for which he meets Two For Gold on 10lbs better terms.

    He returned to Wetherby for the Towton and ran a good second to Newtide (which I backed in a good race last weekend because I have a good figure for it) but then disappointed in the Kim Muir, but that might have been part of the plan to get his mark down again.

    He reappeared over 2½ miles at Carlisle behind Imperial Aura but wasn't really asked any serious questions, at the same time showing something like his better novice form, and we know what Imperial Aura did on Saturday. In the same race were Sam Brown (with whom he's 14lbs better off) and Black Op (12lbs) and his form works out at 14lbs below Imperial Aura, which would put the latter in this off 152 compared with the 157 he was rated on Saturday and for which he emerged with an RPR of 167.

    He might just be an unreliable woof-woof but Skelton only had two in the race before today's declaration stage and he's left this one in.

    I wouldn't be surprised if he won and went up enough to make the cut for the Grand National in which he might still be interesting.

    Anyway, at 33/1 I can afford to pay to find out.
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  8. #46
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    Typically competitive, and you could make some sort of a case for most of these, so I'll be firing two arrows at the board with Secret Investor and Kildisart (slightly worried about trainer form for the latter).

    I'll probably throw Potterman (feasibly weighted on Chepstow run behind Secret Investor, as pointed out by Desert Orchid) and perhaps Two For Gold, at the forecasts and tricasts.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    What about Copperhead? He looked a quality beast last year. That run last time though, if he'd blown up in the straight fair enough but he was gone way before he should have been. Can envisage a massive drift or plunge on the day. Could go either way.

    The principals from the Ultima - The Conditional, Vinndication, Kildistart - they are all up a fair few pounds for that race

  10. #48
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    Had him on the shortlist....of 16!

    You'd have to be worried about him, based on his last couple of runs. Too short in the betting for me to want to chance, and others around the same price look much more likely to give their running.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Fuxck this race then. First Flow was amongst a shortlift of two for that race last Saturday. So much easier.

  12. #50
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes, Copperhead - second season novice looked to be going places, could easily get back on track and I wouldn't put anyone off it.

    It really is that kind of race, the kind that good Saturday winner Regal Encore could run to his very best - and even improve since my last rating for him suggested he had improved despite his age - and still not get in the first ten.

    The challenges involved in trying to solve the puzzle attract me as much as winning money from it.

    (Well, almost... )
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th November 2020 at 2:08 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Thanks, DG.

    Three of my four early longshots still there.

    Siruh Du Lac presumably goes for the Massey-Ferguson, as I'd hoped.
    Siruh Du Lac not entered for the Caspian Gold Cup today strangely enough. I thought that was the race they were touting for if they missed the Ladbrokes?
    Last edited by Marb; 25th November 2020 at 4:28 PM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Siruh Du Lac not entered for the Caspian Gold Cup today strangely enough. I thought that was the race they were touting for if they missed the Ladbrokes?
    That's a surprise. Maybe it pick up an injury last time.

    An alternative scenario is that they are looking at the National for it. If they thought it would stay the Hennessy trip, the National would also be on the agenda. Might be a sight to behold over the big fences.

    Or the Topham, now that I think about it.
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    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Siruh Du Lac not entered for the Caspian Gold Cup today strangely enough. I thought that was the race they were touting for if they missed the Ladbrokes?
    Especially when Pipe was on Racing TV on Sunday saying that he was gonna run in the Hennessey.

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  17. #54
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Looks like Sam Brown is the only scratching at the final dec stage.

    It's very easy to see why the single-figure priced runners are where they are in the market and I reckon the same strength of case could be made for each of them.

    On adjusted RPRs there's only a 7lbs span (165-172) across the entire field but those bare figures don't take into account curves and potential.

    Hope the ground stays decent. I much prefer the biggest races to be run on good ground. I think that allows class to prevail.
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    I wish they’d send La Bague au Rio to the paddocks. They say she had a bad season last year and has come back looking great but I don’t think she’s quite up to this level. But then I am of a wrap them up in cotton wool mentality.

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    I can’t get away from Copperhead. Price isn’t the best, but had a prep for this race and is the horse with the biggest scope for improvement.

    I’ve had savours on Danny Whizzbang at big prices so they’ll be my two darts I think.

  20. #57
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Preview evening of Newbury's two day meeting starts at 7pm on Facebook

    https://twitter.com/NewburyRacing/st...556352/photo/1
    "The owls are not what they seem"

  21. #58
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    I can’t get away from Copperhead. Price isn’t the best, but had a prep for this race and is the horse with the biggest scope for improvement.

    I’ve had savours on Danny Whizzbang at big prices so they’ll be my two darts I think.
    Ground will be too lively surely. I've gone with Cloth Cap on that basis

  22. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Ground will be too lively surely. I've gone with Cloth Cap on that basis
    I can see your case for him, but I can also see a case for half the field. If I could trust La Bague Au Roi she’d be a certainty, but my own feeling is she’s gone at the game.

    When Cloth Cap is considered to have a chance, shows what a really poor renewal it is. Topofthegame would/could have been an absolute certainty. But gutted tbh about him not running.

  23. #60
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    My thoughts at this stage:


    CPB – Current best price (teatime Thursday)

    Horse CBP Comment
    Ballyoptic 50/1 Career best two starts back when giving Valtor 7lbs and 8½L beating, and Royal Encore 11lbs & 10L beating (Asc, sft, £80k) so maybe still improving despite age; ground maybe going against but only btn nose in ’18 Scottish National (£250k) on gd. Probably over-priced.
    Vinndication 6/1f I went low with Charlie Hall form but was probably only prepping. Won’t get away with fiddly jumping here and can jump right at times, which he can’t afford to do. Still improving but curve maybe flattening and vulnerable to big improvers. 1st time pieces.
    Secret Investor 12/1 Only 3lbs & 2¾L behind Native River in Denman here in Feb; improved again next time when giving Potterman 11lbs & 7L beating (Chp, gd, £30k); up 6lbs but 3lbs well in on future ratings.
    Beware
    The Bear
    20/1 Lightly raced last two seasons; close 4th in this last season off this mark but profile generally of an improver; could step up again.
    Kildisart 8/1 Seemed to struggle for form last season but back to best in Festival hcap (surprise!) in 1st time pieces on again here; probably vulnerable to big improvers.
    Copperhead 9/1 2nd-season nov; impressive in Reynoldstown but well beaten when fell in RSA but big improvement likely this season; serious chance.
    Regal Encore 33/1 Recent Asc win arguably career-best so still improving? Probably best at Asc but has form here (3rd in this in ’17); don’t rule out but easy to prefer others.
    Aye Right 15/2 2nd-season nov; improvement may have already come in Kelso hcap (form franked) and Charlie Hall. Further improvement possible but vulnerable to other 2nd-season novices who haen’t shown their improvement yet. Respected.
    Mister Malarkey 16/1 Took time to show 2nd-season improvement last season but won £100k hcap at Kempton in Feb and only 3lb higher here. Probably prepping behind Regal Encore at Asc last month; vulnerable if no improvement.
    Black Op 17/2 2nd-season nov; close second in Kauto Star on Boxing Day; not seen again until reappearance behind Imp Aura at Carlisle (form franked); that trip too short and big improvement expected; major player.
    Two For Gold 10/1 2nd-season nov; I went high with reappearance form so don’t anticipate as much improvement as other 2nd-seaon runners; could easily be placed and good back-up for Vinndication.
    The Conditional 8/1 2nd-season improvement last season ended with Ultima win; 8lbs higher here and further improvement likely but place prospects at best in this company.
    La Bague
    Au Roi
    25/1 smart nov ’18-’19 (won G1 Flogas); 2nd-season improvement didn’t happen so questions to be answered but could be fancied if/when improvement comes.
    Danny Whizzbang 25/1 2nd-season nov but big market drifter this week; backed to 4/1f for Badger but bbv and Cobden opts for SI; risky but clearly talented.
    The Hollow Ginge 66/1 2nd-season nov; disappointed in NH Ch; UR 1st on reappearance but improvement highly likely and very interesting longshot.
    Potterman 20/1 2nd-season improvement already evident in last two runs but 5lbs well-in; weighted closely with SI but twice the price; vulnerable to others whose improvement yet to come; player.
    Ardlethen 33/1 2nd-season nov; well under the radar but lots of positive form links with better horses; reportedly highly regarded; on pick of form has the winning of this.
    Cloth Cap 12/1 Gd 3rd in ’19 Scottish National; couldn’t improve on that last season; hard to see where the improvement is going to come from this time.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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