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Thread: Cheltenham - Non Festival Meets

  1. #21
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm flabbergasted at the opposition to Frodon, to be honest. That's not to say he will win but to dismiss him so forcefully really surprises me.

    This is a Grade 1 horse running in a handicap. He doesn't need to make the running in my opinion but his cruising speed might just be a gear too fast for this field no matter how good they are. The extra distance will suit, I reckon, and he should be in his comfort zone for a long way. I can see him doing a Rouge Vif to this field but there are improvers aplenty in opposition.

    Speaking of Rouge Vif, I've just watched the race again. It was run like a festival race and he has just run away from them. Off 156 and according the the ITV people looking as though he needed the run, he must be a 170+ horse. He has to be a contender for whichever festival race he ends up in.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 23rd October 2020 at 9:59 PM.
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  2. #22
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Frodon surely vulnerable on trip grounds with a stopping weight? I don’t reckon he’s a G1 horse at 3 miles myself, though to be honest, I don’t have a strong opinion on the race.

    One horse I’m very keen on tomorrow is The Macon Lugnatic, who looks sure to benefit from being stepped-up in trip, and goes with plenty of enthusiasm.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 23rd October 2020 at 10:42 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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  3. #23
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Have decided to take a view on the opening juvenile hurdle, and am adopting a stance that says the Triumph isn’t worth a sook.

    The Irish raider is being backed tonight, which I’m quite pleased to see, as it means that Strategem has drifted out to the (imo, unreal) price of 8/1.

    Stratagem took the scalp of well-touted Triumph disappoinment Solo in his only French start, and was a solid third on his first start for Nicholls, before winning with his head in his chest at Kelso. On ratings, that puts him right in the mixer here, but most important of all, his regular jockey/unfailing liability Mr D Maxwell (3) does not take the ride tomorrow, with Harry Cobden jocked-up instead.

    That speaks volumes to me, and I think the market has gone full tits-up in siding with the bogus Triumph form, and being sucked-in by the moody Irish one. I will likely go right off the cliff with Stratagem tomorrow, as it’s not often you get to back Maxwell’s horses minus their standard two-stone penalty.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 23rd October 2020 at 11:07 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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  4. #24
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Frodon surely vulnerable on trip grounds with a stopping weight? I don’t reckon he’s a G1 horse at 3 miles myself, though to be honest, I don’t have a strong opinion on the race.

    One horse I’m very keen on tomorrow is The Macon Lugnatic, who looks sure to benefit from being stepped-up in trip, and goes with plenty of enthusiasm.
    Didn't Frodon win the Cotswolds Chase over pretty much CD? I backed him for the Gold Cup that year and Nicholls himself said he felt he'd stay. The pace won't be as strong as a Gold Cup, obviously, and the weights tell us he's a class apart, giving something like 17lbs and more to Class 3 horses.

    I'm a big fan of Cogry but if he forces the pace he's merely going to set it up for Frodon.

    Sensulano at a decent price might be a sound each-way play despite slight concerns that the ground might not be quite soft enough for her.

    I too like The Macon Lugnatic, though.
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  5. #25
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    True, he did, but that was a Grade 2 rather than a Grade 1, with crocks, boats and dodgepots in opposition, and I doubt it took too much winning.

    Frodon will undoubtedly run his customary honest race, but he makes little appeal to me at around 6/1.....in much the same way that Rouge Vif didn’t appeal to me today!
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  6. #26
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    True, he did, but that was a Grade 2 rather than a Grade 1, with crocks, boats and dodgepots in opposition, and I doubt it took too much winning.
    Frodon, Elegant Escape and Terrefort crawled up the hill in slow motion that day.

  7. #27
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    He's a Ryanair winner though and stays the trip.

    The last time he ran in a handicap was two years ago off this mark in the Massey-Ferguson (Caspian Caviar to younger readers). He gave Cepage 21lbs and a beating, the pair miles clear of the third.

    I have concerns about today's race but they have nothing to do with the trip. I worry that the Ryanair got to him as he wasn't the same horse last year, hence his drop in the handicap. I'm also not sure if today's race is a serious target. A run round in midfield might see him drop a few pounds ahead of either the Mackeson or Massey-Ferguson again, both probably more valuable than this although I would imagine Nicholls has a couple of second-season future Grade 1 horses laid out for them.
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  8. #28
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Frodon, Elegant Escape and Terrefort crawled up the hill in slow motion that day.
    I have a vague recollection that the race was very strongly run though and finished EE for the season but he came out and was an excellent staying-on third in the Hennessy off 160, trying to give runner-up The Conditional 23lbs.
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  9. #29
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Have decided to take a view on the opening juvenile hurdle, and am adopting a stance that says the Triumph isn’t worth a sook.

    The Irish raider is being backed tonight, which I’m quite pleased to see, as it means that Strategem has drifted out to the (imo, unreal) price of 8/1.

    Stratagem took the scalp of well-touted Triumph disappoinment Solo in his only French start, and was a solid third on his first start for Nicholls, before winning with his head in his chest at Kelso. On ratings, that puts him right in the mixer here, but most important of all, his regular jockey/unfailing liability Mr D Maxwell (3) does not take the ride tomorrow, with Harry Cobden jocked-up instead.

    That speaks volumes to me, and I think the market has gone full tits-up in siding with the bogus Triumph form, and being sucked-in by the moody Irish one. I will likely go right off the cliff with Stratagem tomorrow, as it’s not often you get to back Maxwell’s horses minus their standard two-stone penalty.
    Maxwell is injured, rather than jocked off but I do like the horse.

  10. #30
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    As long as he isn’t in the plate is what matters Bonjers - the reason for his absence being somewhat inconsequential. I reckon improvement in Stratagem is practically guaranteed, simply for the want of professional handling.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  11. #31
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    He's by a Japanese stallion who's best horses on the flat enjoyed fast ground which may suggest he could improve for a bit of decent ground.

  12. #32
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Lots to like about Stratagem today.

    Just listening to Nicholls, it sounds like Frodon might not quite be fit enough although he's well known for putting us away.
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  13. #33
    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    Time on my hands this morning & looking at the 3m chase the 11 runners have 14 course wins between them from 84 runs...

    Frodon 5 wins from 12 runs
    Cogry 4 from 17
    Perfect Candidate 3 from 18
    West Approach 1 from 18
    Sensulano 1 from 1
    Manofthemountain 0 from 0...

    Not sure it helps find the winner, but makes you realise how often they keep coming back

  14. #34
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Thoughts for today, copied from elsewhere and edited accordingly:

    2.05 - Anna Bunina works out top-rated because of all the allowances but she’s already come out and made her improvement this season and Tricky Dicky will always be a negative for me. Nordano and Allmankind are entitled to improve into their second season so I expect them and the Nicholls horse to dominate the race. On reflection, I've decided Nordano at 10/1 is far too big a price to ignore each-way even with just two places on offer rather than plump for something shorter.

    2.40 - It looks like Nicholls is trying to take full advantage of the new conditions pertaining to novice status as Southfield Stone would otherwise not be able to run in this so he has to be the obvious selection. Pileon would work out top-rated on ORs with her allowance and is entitled to improve for the switch to fences but, again, Johnson puts me off and I imagine they won’t ask her to be too extravagant on her debut but the potential danger is there. If she really takes to fences she could win and I’m curious that they’re taking in a race like this first time up when much easier opportunities could present themselves elsewhere. I'll probably back Southfield Stone if I end up with a freebie.

    4.25 - This looks a sub-standard renewal (recent winners have been rated in the 140s or better). Nico de Boinville for Ben Pauling might hold some significance so if I have a bet it will be on The Macon Lugnatic.

    5.35 - I read during the week that Whittington holds Calidad in some regard and the chances are that Hobbs, Henderson and Skelton also rate their unraced entries so this could be a good race. However, Smurphy Enki’s RPR is already on a par with previous winners’ and he has experience so, assuming he can improve into his second season, he should probably be up to winning at what might be a value price. He was 4/1 in a place last night and pink (weakening) so I held off until this morning but he's come back in again and I had to settle for 3/1, which I still think might be good value.
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  15. #35
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    Frodon did something fairly remarkable when winning a handicap from a mark of 164 last season - that doesn’t happen often - and he attempts it again today over what is unquestionably his less preferred trip.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  16. #36
    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    Obviously starting on Good, but any chance the afternoon rain will get into the ground for the later races?

  17. #37
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    The Pink’n improved for the faster better ground at Chepstow and might just be some each way value value in the 2.05 at 14/1. Shame there’s only 7 runners though


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  18. #38
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    As long as he isn’t in the plate is what matters Bonjers - the reason for his absence being somewhat inconsequential. I reckon improvement in Stratagem is practically guaranteed, simply for the want of professional handling.
    Oh absolutely! I just interpreted your post as thinking there was an alternative motive behind the jockey change.

  19. #39
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    The Macon Lugnatic taken a major wander in the market this morning.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  20. #40
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    I agree with DO that Sensulano might be worth chancing today, (not sure where that post is). Well backed too. It's great to have the jumps racing back.
    Last edited by Marb; 24th October 2020 at 12:45 PM.

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