Chepstow Musings

[Grasshopper]

13:40
Dunno about this Nicholls hot-pot in the opener. Horse is potentially smart, but his race at Auteuil (runner-up) hasn't worked out particularly well, and he might be priced up on connections old-and-new, rather than what he has achieved in that run. I'll oppose with Hector De Sivola, who was fancied to win first-time-out, but didn't get much luck-in running.

14:12
Seems to be a fair bit of confidence behind the Nicholls horse in this one too, and he is possibly well-handicapped, but he has a long absence to overcome against some match-fit rivals, and Chepstow not usually kind to horses that aren't fully ready. I've rowed-in with Stimulating Song, who wasn't entirely disgraced behind the useful McFabulous in the spring, and who should have come on for his first outing of the season at Ffos Las a couple of weeks back.

14:47
I'm not usually one for backing top-weights in competitive handicaps, and even less one for backing horses trained by Nigel Twiston-Dreamcatcher.......but he knows how to get them ready first time, and whilst Ballyoptic carries a welter-burden today, he skipped round in this last year, and I expect a bold show. Can't take Secret Investor's form in the Denman seriously myself, and would be against him in the place market too.

15:57
The Nicholls horse I do like today is Sir Psycho in the Silver Trophy. I think he'll benefit from this increase in trip and galloping track, and a decent claimer knocks-off a useful 5lbs.

[Desert Orchid]

My own limited musings posted elsewhere:

In the 2.47, I could make a case for Boldmere if Tricky Dicky wasn’t riding. I might back Potterman since he’s fit, in form and his recent win merely matched his best of last season, on which he’s near the top of the ratings. I would expect a second-season chaser to find another 10lbs from their novice season. 4/1 is no great shakes but it’s hard to make strong cases for anything else.

In the 3.57, it looks like Lightly Squeeze has been taken out so that makes my task easier. Tea Clipper looks interesting for a very shrewd operator with a high strike rate. Doubly Clever is the only definite +p horse on my figures and might be worth an interest at a double-figure price.

In the 4.32, The Bay Birch is 8lbs lower than when winning this race last year and has had a prep. If Marracudja’s form with Defi Du Seuil and Un De Sceaux – when he also bled from the nose – can be taken at face value then he should win. The heavy ground that day, though, might make the form unreliable but he also had the 165-rated Janika well behind and the 153 Capeland miles back.

[Grasshopper]

Ballyoptic an NR.

[viking]

Ballyoptic joins the multitude of non runners

Some Chaos makes some appeal at 11/1 although I reckon some of these might well improve past him. Potterman will have the additional burden of my money as there was plenty to like about the way he skipped clear at Market Rasen and a 5lb rise may underrate him


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[Marb]

I'd like to see Some Chaos return to somewhere near the form of the season before last. He seems positive in the betting which boost confidence a bit. Good luck all.

[Bachelors Hall]

13:40
Dunno about this Nicholls hot-pot in the opener. Horse is potentially smart, but his race at Auteuil (runner-up) hasn't worked out particularly well, and he might be priced up on connections old-and-new, rather than what he has achieved in that run. I'll oppose with Hector De Sivola, who was fancied to win first-time-out, but didn't get much luck-in running.

In fairness to that race, the Prix Rush is steeped in history and the form hasn't really been tested enough to describe as exposed. Neither of the front two have ran since and while third placed Shawinigan was well beaten behind Heros d'Ainay in the listed Prix Go Ahead so was every other runner. Fourth placed Hirta did well in a handicap off a mark in the 130s and the fifth hasn't been out since. Then it's fifteen lengths to the sixth who beat Bannister last time and the seventh placed was not disgraced at Dieppe behind Paros (current Triumph favourite), Jeu de Paume (pattern class) and Hacker des Places (now with Paul Nicholls). It's not mouth-watering form by any means but it is still worthy of respect in the field.

Hector de Sivola is an interesting choice of runner for connections but I would not read too much into his being well fancied at Newton Abbot as he was favourite by default given the quality of the field.

I won't be betting on this or any other race so I don't mind being wrong if it means that you get to benefit materially

[granger]

These race times are hideous but good to have the jumps back

The novice hurdle yesterday that through up Soaring Glory was a nice pipe opener

[barjon]

No surprise so many horses were taken out yesterday and some today. The ground is awful, officially described as good but soft “puddles” all over the place.

[Grasshopper]

In fairness to that race, the Prix Rush is steeped in history and the form hasn't really been tested enough to describe as exposed.

I don't believe I described it as "exposed" did I, Kotki?

The Nicholls horse was a 1/2 chance when I looked. It's the kind I like to take on in a juvenile hurdle, when those that have run from the favourites race, have failed to frank the form. I'm a complete weirdo that way.

Good to see you, pal - hope you're well.

[Grasshopper]

Winner impressive, to be fair.

[granger]

Winner impressive, to be fair.

He bought the winner of the prior race in France too Nick

Monmiral

[Grasshopper]

13:40
Dunno about this Nicholls hot-pot in the opener. Horse is potentially smart, but his race at Auteuil (runner-up) hasn't worked out particularly well, and he might be priced up on connections old-and-new, rather than what he has achieved in that run. I'll oppose with Hector De Sivola, who was fancied to win first-time-out, but didn't get much luck-in running.

14:12
Seems to be a fair bit of confidence behind the Nicholls horse in this one too, and he is possibly well-handicapped, but he has a long absence to overcome against some match-fit rivals, and Chepstow not usually kind to horses that aren't fully ready. I've rowed-in with Stimulating Song, who wasn't entirely disgraced behind the useful McFabulous in the spring, and who should have come on for his first outing of the season at Ffos Las a couple of weeks back.

14:47
I'm not usually one for backing top-weights in competitive handicaps, and even less one for backing horses trained by Nigel Twiston-Dreamcatcher.......but he knows how to get them ready first time, and whilst Ballyoptic carries a welter-burden today, he skipped round in this last year, and I expect a bold show. Can't take Secret Investor's form in the Denman seriously myself, and would be against him in the place market too.

15:57
The Nicholls horse I do like today is Sir Psycho in the Silver Trophy. I think he'll benefit from this increase in trip and galloping track, and a decent claimer knocks-off a useful 5lbs.

Standard start.

[Desert Orchid]

Same here so far...

In the 3.57, it looks like Lightly Squeeze has been taken out so that makes my task easier. Tea Clipper looks interesting for a very shrewd operator with a high strike rate. Doubly Clever is the only definite +p horse on my figures and might be worth an interest at a double-figure price.

Backed Doubly Clever (fell), didn't back Tea Clipper.

[viking]

Disappointing day for me too until Pink Eyed Pedro got me out of a hole

Secret Investor got little competition for the lead and showed what he can do in those circumstances

Longhouse Sale never jumped with any fluency and had the stuffing knocked out of him with a bad mid-race blunder. He’ll continue to struggle in the sort of company he faced today I reckon

Sir Psycho didn’t seem to stay (trust me to back the Nichols horse that underperformed)

Shame about all the non-runners

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[jinnyj]

Had a bit ew on Pink Eyed Pedro as I thought he ran well at MR last time and his owner/trainer/breeder David Brace is a sponsor at Chepstow so he wasn’t going there for just a day out. I knew the horse from his Pointing days and won a bit when he won the Dunraven Bowl there.

[Bachelors Hall]

I don't believe I described it as "exposed" did I, Kotki?

The Nicholls horse was a 1/2 chance when I looked. It's the kind I like to take on in a juvenile hurdle, when those that have run from the favourites race, have failed to frank the form. I'm a complete weirdo that way.

Not quite although if one is to describe the form of a race as having not "worked out well", it should be exposed as such in the first place. Not winning a bunch of listed races is not the same as failing to frank the form - particularly as a few of those that have ran had shown enough to win the types of races we've seen in the UK thus far. It's all about context you understand...

Good to see you, pal - hope you're well.

Likewise it is nice to see you too. Hope that you have summered well and are carrying enough condition for the upcoming months.

[Grasshopper]

"......his race at Auteuil (runner-up) hasn't worked out particularly well".

Note the critical qualifier, Kotki.

C'mon - you've known me long enough to know I won't lie down on this kind of thing.

[Diamond Geezer]

McFabulous been given a new rating of 153 (which includes extra credit for the amount he appeared to have in hand over and above the bare result) which is the highest achieved in the race since Silviniaco Conti (also 153), in 2010.

[Maruco]

He looked impressive, and Nicholls clearly rates him highly, but I'm not sure an early season win against horses that wouldn't be sighted in a graded handicap is worth 153.

[Bonjers]

Disappointing day for me too until Pink Eyed Pedro got me out of a hole

Secret Investor got little competition for the lead and showed what he can do in those circumstances

Longhouse Sale never jumped with any fluency and had the stuffing knocked out of him with a bad mid-race blunder. He’ll continue to struggle in the sort of company he faced today I reckon

Sir Psycho didn’t seem to stay (trust me to back the Nichols horse that underperformed)

Shame about all the non-runners

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Sir Psycho on the radar for a 2m handicap on bottomless ground for me.