2 Mile Chasers 20/21

[Maxbet]

[archie]

Those ratings only cover racing up to 27 December. There was an update issued on the 29th which includes the Savills.
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...ture--29122020

[Diamond Geezer]

31 Entries for the Queen Mother Champion Chase

BETWAY QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE (Grade 1)
Altior (IRE) 11 Mrs Patricia Pugh Nicky Henderson
Battleoverdoyen (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
Bun Doran (IRE) 10 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George
Cash Back (FR) 9 Watch This Space Syndicate W. P. Mullins IRE
Chacun Pour Soi (FR) 9 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins IRE
Chatham Street Lad (IRE) 9 Mr V. Healy Michael Winters IRE
Cilaos Emery (FR) 9 Luke McMahon W. P. Mullins IRE
Defi du Seuil (FR) 8 Mr John P. McManus Philip Hobbs
Duc des Genievres (FR) 8 Sullivan Bloodstock Limited Paul Nicholls
Esprit du Large (FR) 7 Mr & Mrs William Rucker Evan Williams
Fakir d’Oudairies (FR) 6 Mr John P. McManus Joseph Patrick O’Brien IRE
Fanion d’Estruval (FR) 6 Mr David Wilson Venetia Williams
First Flow (IRE) 9 Mr A. N. Solomons Kim Bailey
Greaneteen (FR) 7 Chris Giles Paul Nicholls
Ibleo (FR) 8 The Bellamy Partnership Venetia Williams
Impact Factor (IRE) 9 Robcour Mrs J. Harrington IRE
Janika (FR) 8 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson
Le Richebourg (FR) 8 Mr John P. McManus Joseph Patrick O’Brien IRE
Magic Saint (FR) 7 Mr and Mrs J. D. Cotton Paul Nicholls
Min (FR) 10 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins IRE
Notebook (GER) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE
Nube Negra (SPA) 7 Mr T. Spraggett Dan Skelton
Politologue (FR) 10 Mr J. Hales Paul Nicholls
Put The Kettle On (IRE) 7 One For Luck Racing Syndicate Henry de Bromhead IRE
Rouge Vif (FR) 7 Kate & Andrew Brooks Harry Whittington
Samcro (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
Sceau Royal (FR) 9 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Alan King
Simply The Betts (IRE) 8 Kate & Andrew Brooks Harry Whittington
Sizing Pottsie (FR) 7 Ann & Alan Potts Limited Mrs J. Harrington IRE
Tornado Flyer (IRE) 8 T. F. P. W. P. Mullins IRE
Waiting Patiently (IRE) 10 Mr Richard Collins Ruth Jefferson

31 entries 14 Irish-trained

[Desert Orchid]

Is Nicholls taking a bit of a gamble in running Politologue this weekend?

He's been adamant the last twice - his two career best runs [on RPRs] - that the key is having him ultra fresh.

Granted there will still be a couple of months between Saturday and the QM but I would hate to think they might leave his title behind this weekend.

Cards on the table, I have 20/1 ante-post for the QM hence my concerns. The time gap would be ideal for most QM contenders but I can't help remembering how serious Nicholls seemed about Politologue needing a proper break between races.

Edit
Found this quote:

After he disappointed in the Tingle Creek last season we changed his routine. I said to John [Hales] I didn't want to run him before Cheltenham, where I'd have him absolutely right. That's what we did and we're training him the same way for this season's Tingle Creek, after which we'll go straight to Cheltenham.

[wilsonl]

See post #344 DO.

He’s my biggest return of the festival and if he’s beaten in March and then Nicholls comes out with a “he’s better when fresh” comment...

[Marb]

For those interested, another article on the RP about Sky Pirate, with his former jockey Nick Schofield, adding to what Jonjo said, in not ruling out the Arkle.

[Desert Orchid]

My first trawl of the Champion Chase.

I've restricted it to those with marks of 170 or better plus those with more likely potential to get there, esp last season's novices. Mares' allowances are added.

Horse	MON	Notes	CBO
Politologue	177	? (175?)	6/1
Notebook	173	? v	20/1
Defi Du Seuil	172	d	20/1
Chacun Pour Soi	171	+ (175?)	6/4
Altior	171	+	12/1
Min	170	+?	25/1
Waiting Patiently	170	+ t	20/1
Rouge Vif	170	? +?	25/1
Greaneteen	170	?	28/1
Nube Negra	169	+p	12/1
Chatham Street Lad	168	p t	100/1
Put The Kettle On	166	nov	14/1
Fakir D'oudairies	164	nov	50/1

I can't say I'm entirely comfortable with some of the ratings. Obviously Altior's old form is some way better than any of them and plenty of the Irish ones will be going for longer races.

Also, a lot of the Irish 'trials' are striking me as very falsely run, going by times and collateral lines.

You would almost think they were being trained with just one day in mind...

I have to be happy with my Politologue bet. I just hope Nicholls doesn't fvck up its prep.

I've also heard Ruby rave about Min's best form, as though it's better than any of these but he might need a track like Aintree to show it.

Edit - I've edited the table to include current best odds (CBO) with the main bookies but not the exchanges.

It's hard to know exactly which horses, especially the Irish, will turn up in this but if any misfortune were to befall Chacun Pour Soi it would fairly rumble things up.

I hadn't really given too much thought to this race but it looks like it could fall apart a bit so I've taken 20/1 Notebook to add to my ante-post log.

I'm slightly concerned that he's disappointed on both trips to Cheltenham so far but he was 5/2 fav for last year's Arkle following some impressive form beforehand. He had been 50/1 for the Ballymore the year before so I can dismiss that run readily enough.

It's hard to see Blackmore deserting PTKO (assuming she would have the choice) but come the day, Notebook might be entitled to be around the 8/1 mark.

[granger]

First Flow was an enjoyable winner today

Politilogue didn't like it up him and Bass gave the winner a pearler

[granger]

It's hard to see Blackmore deserting PTKO (assuming she would have the choice) but come the day, Notebook might be entitled to be around the 8/1 mark.

I am on notebook too and he hasn't a Ryanair entry

PTKO will go mares chase I think

[LUKE]

Henry told the owners of PTKO that he will be disappointed if she doesn’t finish in the first 3 in the Champion Chase -not sure how RB can desert her -when did she last ride her.

[Maruco]

I'd be surprised if she doesn't run in the Champion Chase. I think both her and Notebook are now the next best behind Chacun. Hopefully they go back to the front-running tactics that served her well previously.

[Desert Orchid]

First Flow up to 166.

Probably under-rates it. Looks like the handicapper is taking a very conservative view of the form.

[Euronymous]

I think you have to given the track.

[Desert Orchid]

I think you have to given the track.

I agree, Euro, but the handicapper might not think he's being conservative.

This is where 'private handicappers' (if I may be so pretentious) can have an edge. There's no holding them back from committing to big figures if that's what the form is telling them.

If we take Royale P's race, for instance: the handicapper probably took Potters Legend as running to its rating and allowed RP 10lbs for 16 lengths in heavy ground at the trip. When I'm looking at the race I'll be looking at Potters Legend (a definite trier on the day but not handicapped to win a race of this nature) running to my own previous best for him, a few pounds ahead of his OR, and rate RP on that basis. Then I'll look at the next couple home and see if their marks tie in closely to my own and tweak the figures if necessary. That usually puts my own ratings a few pounds higher than ORs. They're generally a few pounds higher than RPRs.

[Grasshopper]

FF is now at the stage where his handicap mark is more or less irrelevant (other than for academic interest). It’s Grade 1’s for the foreseeable.

[Desert Orchid]

Not really irrelevant, though, in the sense that in those future G1s we'll be able to compare how his OR next to others stands with how he stands in the market next to others.

It will be some time though, if ever, before we see him in a handicap, for sure.

[Grasshopper]

Not really irrelevant, though, in the sense that in those future G1s we'll be able to compare how his OR next to others stands with how he stands in the market next to others.

It will be some time though, if ever, before we see him in a handicap, for sure.

Fair comment, though race conditions (track, going) usually more of a factor for me than ORs, when it comes to Grade 1s.

[Euronymous]

First Flow has zero chance in the Queen Mother. Having him 6 point shorter than Notebook is ridiculous and the latter is surely backable given the different prep this year that should see him cherry ripe in March and the lack of a crowd to buzz him up.

[Double J]

First Flow has zero chance in the Queen Mother. Having him 6 point shorter than Notebook is ridiculous and the latter is surely backable given the different prep this year that should see him cherry ripe in March and the lack of a crowd to buzz him up.

Fully agree.

Its also led me to backing and naming it the ‘Gigginstown each way lucky 15’

Abacadabras - 16/1 Champion Hurdle
Notebook - 20/1 Chanpion Chase
Samcro - 18/1 Ryanair
Fury Road - 20/1 Stayers Hurdle
142,441/1

Ridiculous pricing for me.

[granger]

Notebook is a huge price. I have tipped at him all year.

Last year was bad in March but I have full confidence in his jumping

Henry could get Sizing pipe ripe in March after dissappointing earlier runs so no doubt he gets there ready to roll