2020 Arc

[Marb]

It must be Love versus Enable that has the racing community talking about this continents greatest middle distance event.

The former is a dual english classic winner, the latter a two time arc winner, only beaten by Waldgeist, who was a horse that saved the best until last in his career in last years renewal, when pouncing late to deny Enable.

Truth be told that it's probably too close to call. Frankie will need to eat up all the spinach he can. Love won the Oaks with such a visual display of acceleration, it was like watching Ronnie O Sullivan pull away from an opponent at this years crucible, it's usually game over by the time Love serves it up to fellow group one horses.

The betting market has a few who need supplementing plus its likely a few will be taken out in due course. The St Leger could in theory throw up a live contender. There could be one or two horses that take in both races.

My early fancy is worth backing each way at a big price if he goes there on the day. He's a horse who has seriously improved this season, both consistency and quality wise.

His trainer believes he can pretty much beat anything on a going day, which translated to english, means we have found the key to Way To Paris (E/W, and/or without Love/Enable), at the old flat racing age of seven years of age, he's still going places.

Way To Paris hasn't been out the first two in four starts this season, they weren't bad races either. In those four starts he turned around form with a good yardstick in Shaman by three lengths or so.

He finished just a neck behind last year's Arc third Sottsass, so he's right there with 120+ horses. There is definately improvement he has shown this summer in France.

His trainer also says if he continues to be in top form he would run him in the Arc so I will keep an eye on any updates in the next few weeks. My feeling is bar Love and Enable, and assuming Godolphins horse doesn't run, Way To Paris can run a very big race on the day.

[Frankel]

Think the ground would dictate who would come out on top between Love and Enable.

Ghaiyyath would surely be best suited to the Champion at Ascot.

Mishriff is one I was hoping would rock up but goes for the Champion at Ascot.

Port Guillaume would be one that interests me further down. Will see how he gets on in the Grand Prix de Paris.

[Maruco]

I’m on Raabihah 33/1 each way early doors, so I’ll be hoping that one can pick up the pieces. Surely Love wins though.

[Euronymous]

Port Guillaume would be one that interests me further down. Will see how he gets on in the Grand Prix de Paris.

Very eye catching in the Jockey Club. I got a little on at 85 on the machine after that race and topped up after his Hocquart win. He's been sold to Aussie interests so needs to win the GPdP in order to take in the Arc.
I'm also on Sottsass but he'd need decent ground.
Love is too short and I'd prefer Enable of the front two.

[G-G]

Love will be getting a lot of weight from Enable, who I think will have to be at her absolute best to win this year, with better ground than last year which not guaranteed to get.
This weekend will be interesting, probably sadly no one will turn up to give her a race, but then again Kempton is not Paris in October. As much as I can't stand Dettori, I would love Enable to win in Paris. She obviously knows nothing about the legend she already is, but it would be a lovely end to her career, especially as they kept her going for just this one day. Love will retire where ever she finishes, and although a fabulous filly obviously will not 'build' the status in people's mind that Enable has.

[sunybay]

substandard Arc
Nothing especial in the older brigade, no top class horses in Germany,
Gaiyyath likely to wait ofr the Champion and no jappanesse horses coming.

Enable too old
Love overrated
Stradivarius too slow
Mishriff likely to go Champion
Rabihhah is not even the best 3yo fillie in her stable
Sottsass, Japan and Way To Paris 120 horses
Magical better at 10f and exposed

The only ones of interest would be Logician, Serpentine and Pyledriver
Logician has been injured and is not out at september
Pyledriver , impressive last time out and the form is good but Leger is not the ideal prep
So Serpentine is the one, will win the GPP and the will improve in the big one and win in style

[jinnyj]

Isn’t Deidre Japanese? I’ve always liked her and connections felt she wasn’t 100% for Nassau. She could place at a decent price.
I hope we get a cracker of a race between Love and Enable though.

[Frankel]

Very eye catching in the Jockey Club. I got a little on at 85 on the machine after that race and topped up after his Hocquart win. He's been sold to Aussie interests so needs to win the GPdP in order to take in the Arc.
I'm also on Sottsass but he'd need decent ground.
Love is too short and I'd prefer Enable of the front two.

Interesting to see how he copes with the Derby winner in the GPdP!

[Desert Orchid]

The brother has been on the phone this evening to suggest Logician at a big price and I've backed it ew at 40s for both of us.

He says Timeform hold it in the highest regard, in the 'sky's the limit' category, rated 126p at the end of last season.

If he's a 130 horse waiting to happen it's hard to see him out of the frame.

As for being injured, he's had positive gallop reports regularly over the last couple of months in the Weekender.

I won't put it on the longshot thread because it isn't really my own selection but the brother is good at reading trainers.

[Frankel]

The brother has been on the phone this evening to suggest Logician at a big price and I've backed it ew at 40s for both of us.

He says Timeform hold it in the highest regard, in the 'sky's the limit' category, rated 126p at the end of last season.

If he's a 130 horse waiting to happen it's hard to see him out of the frame.

As for being injured, he's had positive gallop reports regularly over the last couple of months in the Weekender.

I won't put it on the longshot thread because it isn't really my own selection but the brother is good at reading trainers.

Love Logician and how far would he have won last year!

Surely he won't be allowed to run again!

[Maruco]

I doubt Khalid Abdullah would want Logician getting in the way of Enable. Also to get a prep in before the Arc would risk him bouncing. I'd say he's a longshot just to turn up.

After his spell on the sidelines I suspect a prep before Champions Day is more likely, or maybe even the Breeders Cup turf. Both of which give him time to be at his best. The question is where will he be prepped soon if either are the plan off a run?

[Desert Orchid]

I'd be surprised if Logician hasn't been ready to race for some time and I don't see it as 'getting in the way' as far as the Arc is concerned. They now know they've got a serious opponent in Love but Logician might be better than the Coolmore filly. I reckon they'll want Logician there in case Enable doesn't run her race or, like last year, gets the sectionals wrong.

Logician doesn't strike me the type that will need a race to get sharp but I imagine at least a racecourse gallop will be organised.

[Desert Orchid]

Logician doesn't strike me the type that will need a race to get sharp but I imagine at least a racecourse gallop will be organised.

At the risk of sounding self-contradictory, I think Logician is a very bad 2/13 shot on Thursday. Sure, he is a lot better than his opponents and, sure, there are only two of them but he's only 6lbs higher than Zaaki on ORs and 5lbs on RPRs, and Mythical Magic wouldn't be that far behind on his best form.

I always think the top G1 horses struggle to get within 5lbs of their very best form first time up and I would expect Logician to prove at least 5lbs better this season than last but at 2/13 I'm tempted to oppose him, much as I want to see him win by a wide margin. I still think he's the most likely winner but I can't see him doing so like a 2/13 shot.

[barjon]

At the risk of sounding self-contradictory, I think Logician is a very bad 2/13 shot on Thursday. Sure, he is a lot better than his opponents and, sure, there are only two of them but he's only 6lbs higher than Zaaki on ORs and 5lbs on RPRs, and Mythical Magic wouldn't be that far behind on his best form.

I always think the top G1 horses struggle to get within 5lbs of their very best form first time up and I would expect Logician to prove at least 5lbs better this season than last but at 2/13 I'm tempted to oppose him, much as I want to see him win by a wide margin. I still think he's the most likely winner but I can't see him doing so like a 2/13 shot.

Well, the books little more than 3% overround so the other two at 5/1 and 11/1 are appropriately priced after Logician’s. So if you think he is bad value then the others or one of them must be good value. Odds value is one thing, but being enough to be winning value in any specific race is another. I expect Logician to win easily as maybe a 1/4 shot should so the poor value at 2/13 would merely signal no bet rather than outright opposition?

[Desert Orchid]

I expect Logician to win easily as maybe a 1/4 shot should so the poor value at 2/13 would merely signal no bet rather than outright opposition?

Yes but I'm tempted to oppose him, more with Zaaki than the Godolphin horse.

[Marb]

His trainer believes he can pretty much beat anything on a going day, which translated to english, means we have found the key to Way To Paris (E/W, and/or without Love/Enable), at the old flat racing age of seven years of age, he's still going places.

Way To Paris hasn't been out the first two in four starts this season, they weren't bad races either. In those four starts he turned around form with a good yardstick in Shaman by three lengths or so.

He finished just a neck behind last year's Arc third Sottsass, so he's right there with 120+ horses. There is definately improvement he has shown this summer in France.

His trainer also says if he continues to be in top form he would run him in the Arc so I will keep an eye on any updates in the next few weeks. My feeling is bar Love and Enable, and assuming Godolphins horse doesn't run, Way To Paris can run a very big race on the day.

Way To Paris could take on Stradavarius and Anthony Van Dyke in the Prix Foy on Sunday. Hopefully he can beat these.

[Euronymous]

4/1 at Hills. Price taken.

Also backed Port Guillaume in the Grand Prix. He's 7/2 and Serpentine is 13/8 ish. That's too big a price gap.

[Marb]

Good luck, Euro. I don't have an online account with William Hills, but will pop down one of their shops and have a token tenner each way bet at 50s for the Arc later on today.

[Truncheon]

Looks to be a lot of rain in Paris with a fair bit in the forecast to come

Enable has shortened the last couple of days and could go off favourite

[reet hard]

Coolmore are on the verge of supplementing Serpentine. Whether on his own merit, or as pace for Love is unclear.
They're also saying that RM rides Love, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it.