Cracking race at Thurles on Thursday featuring Kemboy, Monalee and Percy over 2m6. I have Monalee as the best of these comfortably but he needed the run fto last year so whilst tempting I find myself holding off at the 9/4 quoted at Hills and Powers.
It screams no bet unless Archie tells us Kemboy is 100% first time?
I still think despite what Gordon says, he'll be trying to get a few pounds of Percy for April, and as you say Monalee usually needs his first race. That said we'd have said the same about Minella Indo!
Minello Indo (who I'm quite sweet on for the Gold Cup) declared at Navan on Sunday.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Euronymous (19th November 2020)
I’m topping up on Minella Indo.
100% gets trimmed after he bolts up tomorrow. Not sure what beats him. 2 horse race between Al Boum and Minella. Nobody even mention the hound Santini please. Cyrname possibly but I’m not convinced.
The fact Percy is 16/1 shows how poor a race it is. 10/1 each way, even this far out, is surely a must bet.
Champ is fascinating!
All comers, all grounds, all beaten!
This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.
Have backed Minella Indo for the Gold Cup tonight. The other bets I have in the race are highly-speculative arrows at Saint Calvados......though I confess I’m feeling a little better about his King George chances after today’s events (obviously has to get to Kempton first).
Last edited by Grasshopper; 21st November 2020 at 11:39 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
How Santini is second fav for this race I have no idea.
All roads to Leopardstown
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
Unclear if we're talking Leopardstown or Gold Cup but either way, Santini might be the best staying chaser in the country.
Nothing went right for him in the Gold Cup: interrupted preparation, hampered at the top of the hill, again turning for home and again going to the last before switching clear of the others and running on strongly. I think we're in a modest era of Gold Cup horses but see Santini as likely to be considerably better with a smoother run at it and with another season behind him. He's the one I would take out of last year's race and reckon he has the potential to be a 175-180 horse.
I rate last year's RSA so Champ and Minella Indo are interesting with Allaho reportedly more likely to drop back in trip. I wouldn't worry about the likes of Cyrname and CDO at Cheltenham until they show me it's unlikely to inconvenience them.
I imagine a handicapper or two will improve enough to come into consideration as place contenders but not likely to be 175+ types.
I don't have big figures for ABP or Kemboy so what's to stop Santini?
Edit - I just looked up Santini on the RP database and followed a link to Mick Fitz's 10TF in which he mentions Santini as a Grand National horse. Considering his links with the yard, this worries me. Do they no longer believe he can win a Gold Cup? Do they think Champ is the likelier candidate? If he comes out and is well beaten it will probably be the National for him and they'll try and get him down 10lbs from his current 172 by early Feb when the weights are released so expect two or three midfield finishes in G2 company.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 22nd November 2020 at 8:20 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but they should have bounced Santini out in front and made it a real stamina yesterday this year.
Santini reminds me very-much of Bobsworth. Can get out-paced but finishes with a rattle.
I’m not particularly keen on him for the Gold Cup (for the reasons above), but it would take a higher degree of confidence than I can muster, to write him off completely.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 22nd November 2020 at 9:28 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
I don’t think he is fast enough to lead a Gold Cup field, Darren......or at least, if he did, I think he’d only set it up for something with a better finishing kick.
I think he’d need them to go quite hard, hope to stay in touch, and look to run-on past tiring horses. He’d also want to jump better than has often been the case, to maintain a good position. Soft ground would help him too.
I think he needs a few things to go his way, to be winning the big one, tbh, and others of similar merit seem a lot more straightforward.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018