If Cyrname was human he'd be Bryony Frost.
If Cyrname was human he'd be Bryony Frost.
"And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew.
And that small head knew that Impaire Et Passe would win the Champion Hurdle."
I've taken a wee plunge on Topofthegame at 16/1 for the Gold Cup.
His RSA form shows him to be at least on a par with Santini (now 172) and Delta Work (170) although that would presume he progressed at the same rate since the 2019 festival.
I fully expect him to win the Hennessy. His last OR was 164 but on the RP site isn't listed with one in the Hennessy card. I think the weights are published this week and I half-expect the handicapper to allow him at least 3lbs for his absence but even without it he could be interpreted as being 8lbs well in. I'll be backing him for the Hennessy too ahead of the weights coming out as I expect his price to shorten up a bit.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Fair chance the handicapper will rate him based on subsequent improvement from Santini and Delta Work, and absolutely clobber him, tbh DO. He might not give him the full bhuna, but It would be no surprise to see TOTG get 170 - and that would be some mark to try to defy after such a long absence.
That said, I agree he will probably shorten regardless of what the handicapper does.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 2nd November 2020 at 9:11 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
I honestly don't believe the handicapper works that way, GH. I'll be gutted if he does!!! (Can't find a boke emoji!)
Illegitimi non carborundum
Maybe at one time it would have been beyond the pale, but I’m not so sure any more.
The handicapper principal motivation is not to be made to look like an arsehole, and I reckon he’ll be looking to guard against that outcome, when framing the Hennessy weights.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
I suspect Nicholls has already been on the phone to the handicapper to 'discuss' a rating for the horse.
The norm, though, is most definitely to allow a horse a few pounds (sometimes as much as 10lbs) for an extended absence. It's something I've noted (and occasionally exploited) down the years.
I am 110% certain TOTG will not be rated higher than 164, his last OR. I'd see that as guarding against criticism.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I know some aren't keen on speed figures and sectionals in National Hunt racing, but Simon Rowlands analysis of the Charlie Hall and Cyrname's winning performance is a good example of how they can be useful. In this instance it proves he was able to sprint off the front in a race that was no test at all. Therefore those that thought it was a staying performance that makes him a credible Gold Cup contender will have to wait for further evidence or just roll the dice that he 'might' be able to get the trip against proven stayers bred for the job. For what it's worth, now that we know he goes left-handed, 12/1 with cashout for the Ryanair feels like a sensible bet.
https://t.attheraces.com/blogs/secti...onals-at-ascot
Speed figures like everything Paul, they have their place.
If we fail to evolve, we get left behind
I have no doubt the KG will truly test him as he will have to finish with that pace after going around flat out for 2.75m
My disagreemnt to some on here was that he looked like he didnt stay comfortably on Sat was folly. A horse with that much reserve in place to jump like he did and the fact that he did finish strong means to me, i am comfortable that he will stay 3 miles
Would I like to be Harry Cobden on boxing day picking between the 2? he has a choice to make
Last edited by granger; 4th November 2020 at 10:54 AM.
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
Cobden’s choice between Cyrname and CDO will probably tell you everything you need to know about yard confidence in Cyrname’s stamina.
FWIW, I think Cyrname won the Charlie Hall cosily, but the KG is usually a much-sterner examination of a horse’s stamina, and I personally wouldn’t take the chance. Insofar as the Gold Cup is concerned, I couldn’t have him at all.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
As you know, Maruco, I'm into sectionals (not quite in an anoraky way just yet and probably will never get to that stage 'cos of my age) but on a point of pedantry, SR never said Cyrname "was able to sprint" off the pace. In fact, he actually used inverted commas to emphasise that he "asserted".
In my own crude piece posted earlier in the week I concluded that he wasn't a lot faster than the relatively lowly Class 4 handicap over CD, in largely the same vein as SR's piece. My take, though, is that the Class 4 race might well be a lot stronger than could have been anticipated.
I was also concerned that Vinndication, despite not jumping fluently, stayed on well against others that were probably tiring. In the circumstances, if I were a fan of Cyrname, I'd be a wee bit uncomfortable about Vinndication ending up relatively close to him.
At least SR admits NH sectionals are little beyond the embryonic stage but they're always worth reading.
Illegitimi non carborundum
You think of the amount of top class horses who have floundered up the Cheltenham hill - Conti, Florida Pearl, One Man etc - they would all have demolished that Charlie Hall field.
Humble pie time. Serves me right for being over-confident. Always worthy of a slap in the chops.
It looks like Topofthegame has been put on 165. I'm still happy with that for the Hennessy. It wouldn't put me off one bit but I'll be looking for a cat to kick if it loses by a length.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I think that's too easy to say without being able to prove it one way or t'other.
We're still at the stage where levels of fitness are uncertain. The ones mentioned, sure, would have demolished that field at their best form.
I certainly wouldn't have expected a horse of Definitly Red's ability to be off the bit before the end of the first circuit. The likes of La Bague was taken back and wide for long spells.
I think a lot of other connections accepted they couldn't help but have a hard race if they tried to stick it to Cyrname and, whether they would have ended up being successful or not, it could have done their horses' campaigns more harm than good.
I think we'll see more of that than usual before Christmas due to poor levels of prize money. Some of it is hardly worth chasing if it ruins a horse's mark for when prize money levels recover, assuming they will.
Illegitimi non carborundum
You don't need sectionals to see that they went a married man's gallop in the Charlie Hall.
Topofthegame is an interesting animal too............but I can't think of any recent Gold Cup Winner what won the race having missed a season??
I think the point is that, whilst the Charlie Hall did not prove that Cyrname had the stamina to finish strongly after Gold Cup pace, it did nothing to suggest that he couldn’t. He looked pretty comfortable to me. At the very least it must have moved him a good few notches along from the “can’t stay” view that was prevalent before the race.
Last edited by barjon; 4th November 2020 at 12:08 PM.
When it comes to Cyrname, I think you have to assess his stamina independently for the KG and the Gold Cup.
Based on the Charlie Hall, he should be given the benefit of the doubt for Kempton, but I think he'd be one to robustly oppose in a Gold Cup, even if he danced-up in the King George.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018