From RP Stable tour
We had one of the wettest winters and the wettest February on record but when Native River ran at Newbury in the Denman Chase the ground was quick. We thought about pulling him out of the race but felt we had to run – and he won – but he picked up a small injury that eventually forced him out of the Gold Cup. It was a big shame because he was in brilliant form. He's not finished at all and he's in great form again at the moment. We want to give him two runs before the Gold Cup, and if it's soft ground there it will help him. There aren't too many races before then for him anyway as he'd be carrying a stone more if we went back to something like the Welsh National, so we'll look to go back to the Many Clouds at Aintree, which he won last year. The Grand National isn't on the owners' agenda, everything is geared up to getting him to the Gold Cup. He's forgotten about a bit but he's a brilliant stayer – not many horses have finished first, third and fourth in a Gold Cup.
If you can rely on trainer quotes.
It's unlikely he can win this but a repeat of either run last season + soft ground and he has a better than one in ninety chance IMO.