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Thread: The Road To The Champion Hurdle 2021

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

    Thought we'd start the one or two usual "Road To" threads with an overview of the market as it stands now, will be interesting to look back next March and see what was occuring

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    Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 29th August 2020 at 1:08 PM.
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Is Goshen fully confirmed for a jumps campaign?

    Abac way shorter than I hoped for?
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post

    Abac way shorter than I hoped for?
    I think 10s is fine. Would like a renewal on better ground but that is becoming far from a given nowadays.

    Remember how impressive Binocular was in his CH? Form ended up being worthless. I have a suspicion this past renewal might be similar. Epatante had the run of the race compared to Sharjah who didn't have ground conditions to boot. She's very opposable as is Goshen at his price.

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    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    Is Goshen fully confirmed for a jumps campaign?

    Abac way shorter than I hoped for?
    I hope so. Goshen (or should I say Jamie Moore) cost me a fortune in the Triumph, but he was so good I vowed to back him ‘til he loses and since I don’t expect him to lose before the Champion Hurdle I’ve already taken him.

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    Saint Roi surely the value.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I took 33/1 Aramon a couple of months back. Now 25s tops. Going in the right direction at least.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Yes Aramon and Saint Roi both the value. I backed both early and have 33’s on both. Epatante and Abracadabras the most likely winners though I think.

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    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Goshen is one to taken on.

    Abac is one that I cannot wait to see how he has summerred
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Goshen is an unknown. There has to be a chance that 2m will be too short for him in the end but I think he is one of the strongest gallopers I've seen. Classier types might travel against him but they will need to guts it out for half a mile to beat him. There are very few I'd fancy to do so. The more brutal the test the better.

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    barjon (30th August 2020)

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    Captain Guiness is one for me at a bigger price, was desperately unlucky in the Supreme.

    Sent from my SM-A105FN using Tapatalk

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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beef or Salmon View Post
    Captain Guiness is one for me at a bigger price, was desperately unlucky in the Supreme.

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    Assume he goes chasing. Really like him and he can fill the 2nd spot in the Arkle!
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Assume he goes chasing. Really like him and he can fill the 2nd spot in the Arkle!
    Just had a search there for quotes from De Bromhead and I suspect you are right, back to the drawing board!!

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Assume he goes chasing. Really like him and he can fill the 2nd spot in the Arkle!
    Hoping at the moment he can win the Arkle. I'm on at 33/1.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Hoping at the moment he can win the Arkle. I'm on at 33/1.
    Very nice ticket. Still think the current 20s is generous.
    Hopefully he can jump!
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by HawkWing View Post
    Goshen is an unknown. There has to be a chance that 2m will be too short for him in the end but I think he is one of the strongest gallopers I've seen. Classier types might travel against him but they will need to guts it out for half a mile to beat him. There are very few I'd fancy to do so. The more brutal the test the better.
    Don’t forget the Champion Hurdle is on the sharper old course, and the Triumph was on the stiffer new course which isn’t in his favour.

    Goshen’s odds are an absolute disgrace, and are no reflection of his chance. He has plenty to prove coming out of The Triumph that typically doesn’t work out well. Admittedly he potentially looks a notch above the usual, but of the top half dozen or so he’s the one I want to be on the least.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Don’t forget the Champion Hurdle is on the sharper old course, and the Triumph was on the stiffer new course which isn’t in his favour.

    Goshen’s odds are an absolute disgrace, and are no reflection of his chance. He has plenty to prove coming out of The Triumph that typically doesn’t work out well. Admittedly he potentially looks a notch above the usual, but of the top half dozen or so he’s the one I want to be on the least.
    Yeah, they may be crazy odds for Goshen but, like Hawkwing, I’ve not seen anything “Frankel” his opponents in the same way. He”s won by 23 lengths, 34 lengths and 11 lengths easing up each time and he would have won the Triumph by a dozen lengths or more, too. He really looks like something very special and I’m taking the view that he is unless he proves otherwise rather than the other way round. Even so, on what he has shown so far, Timeform have him rated equal with Epatante so maybe the odds are not so crazy after all.
    Last edited by barjon; 31st August 2020 at 1:19 PM.

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    Yes, the champion is on the sharper course, with a greater emphasis on jumping. However, it will be run on the soft side of good. Sometimes its just about picking the best horse. If Goshen could kick at the top of the hill, leave the hold up travelly types race to get to him and see who wants it more up the hill. Happy to be proved wrong, and its not the sharper test that bothers me, the more brutal the race the better. I would worry about him in a dawdle over any distance, which i think we know is not a real worry with this horse.

    Genuinely delighted that there are those who think he is ridiculously priced.

    You could definitely argue that if Shiskin did so much wrong in the Supreme and still won doesn't say an awful lot for the others, and if Sharjah is the best hurdler in training, its hardly a stellar age.

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    The truth is none of us know HW. It's one of the reasons why I love the sport and the differing opinions that challenge my own.

    This season he'll be racing against the best around, and not 4 year old juveniles. I don't think he'd be leaving the best of this seasons class behind if he kicks at the top of the hill. He'd just be setting the race up for a finisher. In fact I'm not sure he'll even be leading at the top of the hill. I can't imagine they'll want to make their move until after the flight half way down the hill after keeping him settled just behind the leader(s). If I were Jamie Moore I'd want to get the inside pitch leading coming round the bend for home and then see if the others are good enough to get to me. And I think there's enough potential class in the field to see him off. All that depends on who gets there of course, and the same is true of Goshen himself after he'll already have had a flat campaign straight into his hurdle campaign, which is hardly ideal.

    People assume he was going to win by half the track when he fell at the last, and he may well have won 10-15 lengths. But he also may have tied up after going for it early. We don't know. Often mistakes are made due to fatigue rather than just a plain error. Win or lose, the that fact that he's now gone favourite on the exchange is just plain ridiculous, when based on all we know he doesn't have the leading claim, he's going to have had a very long campaign come March, anything can happen between now and then fitness-wise, plus the trainer/jockey doesn't inspire either. He should be a short double figures price at best this far out. And if he proves he can mix it in his first run, then maybe he should be a price more like Abracadabras at 7/1 rather than 4/1. If he was a sensible price I'd put him in my book, but at this stage I can't see any way I can back him other than a multi so he's in my book, or to perhaps provide some cover on the day of the race.
    Last edited by Maruco; 1st September 2020 at 8:25 AM.

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    Yeah. Of course. But what flat campaign? It's September. Has been off since March.

    I think he would have taken some beating in this year's champion.

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    Whether you think he has a leading claim or not, that's of course up to you.

    Timeform's ratings suggest that he should be near enough to favourite. And for the record I said that Saint Roi is the value. If Goshen is in the field, Envoi Allen becomes more interesting.


    HURDLERS
    163 SHARJAH
    161p EPATANTE
    161p GOSHEN
    161 PAISLEY PARK
    160p ENVOI ALLEN
    160 HONEYSUCKLE
    159p SHISHKIN
    159 BENIE DES DIEUX
    159 IF THE CAP FITS
    159 SIRE DU BERLAIS
    158 ABACADABRAS
    158 BUVEUR D'AIR
    158 LISNAGAR OSCAR
    157 DARVER STAR
    156 BAPAUME
    156 CILAOS EMERY
    156 MR ADJUDICATOR
    156 RONALD PUMP
    156 SALDIER
    156 SUMMERVILLE BOY

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