Thought we'd start the one or two usual "Road To" threads with an overview of the market as it stands now, will be interesting to look back next March and see what was occuring
Thought we'd start the one or two usual "Road To" threads with an overview of the market as it stands now, will be interesting to look back next March and see what was occuring
Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 29th August 2020 at 1:08 PM.
"The owls are not what they seem"
Is Goshen fully confirmed for a jumps campaign?
Abac way shorter than I hoped for?
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
I think 10s is fine. Would like a renewal on better ground but that is becoming far from a given nowadays.
Remember how impressive Binocular was in his CH? Form ended up being worthless. I have a suspicion this past renewal might be similar. Epatante had the run of the race compared to Sharjah who didn't have ground conditions to boot. She's very opposable as is Goshen at his price.
Saint Roi surely the value.
I took 33/1 Aramon a couple of months back. Now 25s tops. Going in the right direction at least.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Yes Aramon and Saint Roi both the value. I backed both early and have 33’s on both. Epatante and Abracadabras the most likely winners though I think.
Goshen is one to taken on.
Abac is one that I cannot wait to see how he has summerred
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
Goshen is an unknown. There has to be a chance that 2m will be too short for him in the end but I think he is one of the strongest gallopers I've seen. Classier types might travel against him but they will need to guts it out for half a mile to beat him. There are very few I'd fancy to do so. The more brutal the test the better.
barjon (30th August 2020)
Captain Guiness is one for me at a bigger price, was desperately unlucky in the Supreme.
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Beef or Salmon (30th August 2020)
Don’t forget the Champion Hurdle is on the sharper old course, and the Triumph was on the stiffer new course which isn’t in his favour.
Goshen’s odds are an absolute disgrace, and are no reflection of his chance. He has plenty to prove coming out of The Triumph that typically doesn’t work out well. Admittedly he potentially looks a notch above the usual, but of the top half dozen or so he’s the one I want to be on the least.
Yeah, they may be crazy odds for Goshen but, like Hawkwing, I’ve not seen anything “Frankel” his opponents in the same way. He”s won by 23 lengths, 34 lengths and 11 lengths easing up each time and he would have won the Triumph by a dozen lengths or more, too. He really looks like something very special and I’m taking the view that he is unless he proves otherwise rather than the other way round. Even so, on what he has shown so far, Timeform have him rated equal with Epatante so maybe the odds are not so crazy after all.
Last edited by barjon; 31st August 2020 at 1:19 PM.
Yes, the champion is on the sharper course, with a greater emphasis on jumping. However, it will be run on the soft side of good. Sometimes its just about picking the best horse. If Goshen could kick at the top of the hill, leave the hold up travelly types race to get to him and see who wants it more up the hill. Happy to be proved wrong, and its not the sharper test that bothers me, the more brutal the race the better. I would worry about him in a dawdle over any distance, which i think we know is not a real worry with this horse.
Genuinely delighted that there are those who think he is ridiculously priced.
You could definitely argue that if Shiskin did so much wrong in the Supreme and still won doesn't say an awful lot for the others, and if Sharjah is the best hurdler in training, its hardly a stellar age.
The truth is none of us know HW. It's one of the reasons why I love the sport and the differing opinions that challenge my own.
This season he'll be racing against the best around, and not 4 year old juveniles. I don't think he'd be leaving the best of this seasons class behind if he kicks at the top of the hill. He'd just be setting the race up for a finisher. In fact I'm not sure he'll even be leading at the top of the hill. I can't imagine they'll want to make their move until after the flight half way down the hill after keeping him settled just behind the leader(s). If I were Jamie Moore I'd want to get the inside pitch leading coming round the bend for home and then see if the others are good enough to get to me. And I think there's enough potential class in the field to see him off. All that depends on who gets there of course, and the same is true of Goshen himself after he'll already have had a flat campaign straight into his hurdle campaign, which is hardly ideal.
People assume he was going to win by half the track when he fell at the last, and he may well have won 10-15 lengths. But he also may have tied up after going for it early. We don't know. Often mistakes are made due to fatigue rather than just a plain error. Win or lose, the that fact that he's now gone favourite on the exchange is just plain ridiculous, when based on all we know he doesn't have the leading claim, he's going to have had a very long campaign come March, anything can happen between now and then fitness-wise, plus the trainer/jockey doesn't inspire either. He should be a short double figures price at best this far out. And if he proves he can mix it in his first run, then maybe he should be a price more like Abracadabras at 7/1 rather than 4/1. If he was a sensible price I'd put him in my book, but at this stage I can't see any way I can back him other than a multi so he's in my book, or to perhaps provide some cover on the day of the race.
Last edited by Maruco; 1st September 2020 at 8:25 AM.
Yeah. Of course. But what flat campaign? It's September. Has been off since March.
I think he would have taken some beating in this year's champion.
Whether you think he has a leading claim or not, that's of course up to you.
Timeform's ratings suggest that he should be near enough to favourite. And for the record I said that Saint Roi is the value. If Goshen is in the field, Envoi Allen becomes more interesting.
HURDLERS
163 SHARJAH
161p EPATANTE
161p GOSHEN
161 PAISLEY PARK
160p ENVOI ALLEN
160 HONEYSUCKLE
159p SHISHKIN
159 BENIE DES DIEUX
159 IF THE CAP FITS
159 SIRE DU BERLAIS
158 ABACADABRAS
158 BUVEUR D'AIR
158 LISNAGAR OSCAR
157 DARVER STAR
156 BAPAUME
156 CILAOS EMERY
156 MR ADJUDICATOR
156 RONALD PUMP
156 SALDIER
156 SUMMERVILLE BOY