On what we've seen so far, Shan Blue and Last Destination look like the best of the UK horses. Given the UK trainers have such a good record in the RSA I'd say it should pay to have one or both onside each way.
The Irish seem to have the whip hand atm, but you’ve picked a coupl of UK ones that are down the Timeform ratings list -
NOVICE CHASERS
154P ENVOI ALLEN
153p GALVIN
153p PENCILFULLOFLEAD
151p ASTERION FORLONGE
151 COURT MAID
150p ALLMANKIND
149p ANDY DUFRESNE
149p PROTEKTORAT
148P SHISHKIN
148p EASYWORK
148p ENERGUMENE
148p FELIX DESJY
148p GUMBALL
148p MONKFISH
148p SHAN BLUE
148 FUSIL RAFFLES
147p EARLY DOORS
146P UNEXCEPTED
146p BLACKBOW
146p HITMAN
146p NEXT DESTINATION
146p SEVARANO
It’s difficult to see past Envoi Allen, but I’ve a bit of hope for Shishkin coming through.
Last edited by barjon; 22nd December 2020 at 10:26 AM.
Not when you take out the horses that will go to the Arkle and Marsh Barjon.
Monkfish 148p
Shan Blue 148p
Next Destination 146p
The market order for the RSA is about right, but the disparity in prices isn't, and unless you have Monkfish at antepost prices, the value looks to be with the two UK horses at the moment, given Pencilflloflead is heavily ground dependent and Court Maid is reportedly heading to the NH Chase.
barjon (22nd December 2020)
I understand why you would be too, but to Skelton's credit he's now starting to come across more in his methods like his old boss Nicholls than Martin Pipe. I think the penny has dropped that he needs Festival graded horses if he's going to progress. So far the game has seemed to be all about volume and landing a touch. The improvement for a fence from Shan Blue has been huge. Protektorat too, plus Allmankind. He needs marking up now I think, because he's starting to look as good as anyone for improving horses from hurdles to fences.
I can think of plenty of horses beaten well in Festival novice hurdles that have gone on to be top chasers. Just not from Skelton so far. And while all three of those mentioned have tough tasks against Shiskin, Envoi Allen, and Monkfish, I think it's a worse than evens chance that two of the three finish in the places in the three novice chases.
Has Unexcepted had a setback? Not entered at Leopardstown even though this was the stated target after his debut win.
Monkfish gave me a wow factor performance on debut.
I've got a feeling Latest Exhibition could be the one that reverts to hurdles and becomes a major player for the stayers.
Unexcepted could be one of those horses that running fresh is an advantage. He's bled in the past.
Last edited by Slim; 22nd December 2020 at 5:16 PM.
No Envoi Allen over Xmas. Goes to Punchestown mid-January.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Townend goes to Limerick for just the one ride on Asterion Forlonge in the G1 Faugheen. WPM also runs Janidil and Colreevy.
Assemble and Pencilfulloflead complete the line-up.
Ground going to be testing and a tight racing line on the downhill run.
Proper race.
Shan Blue wins the Feltham surely..
Some novice chase over at Limerick.
Asterion Forlonge
Pencilfulloflead
Colreevy
Janidil
Assemble
Could make a case for any of them.
Asterion got away with the mistakes on debut but paid the price today.
He was good when allowed to go short but put down when Townend asked him. Clearly has some engine.
Janidil disappointed when let down and looks better when allowed to dictate in weaker company. Not a grade 1 horse.