Page 3 of 31 FirstFirst 1234567813 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 60 of 608

Thread: Novice Chasers 2020 / 2021

  1. #41
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    I'd love to hear why his form dipped so quickly and he wasn't considered for the Festival last season. Something wasn't quite right with his campaign, so that explanation is the key to whether he could be top class and is one to get onside, or alternatively that it's more likely he'll fall short when he meets the best horses around.

    Anyone heard anything about what issues he might have had if any? It could be as simple as he struggles to stand up to Willie's training regime or doesn't come out of his races well. But I'd rather hear there was something specific and he's over it now.

    Insofar as Cheltenham is concerned, connections had Saint Roi for the County Hurdle, which would have left the Conditionals Handicap as their only other Festival option (and Front View was their fancy for that race).

    Add the subsequent loss of Aintree and Punchestown, and the fact he’s bred to be a chaser, and maybe it was an easy decision to put him away for a novice-chase campaign, after disappointing at Leopardstown (where quicker ground might have been a factor).

    You need to stop prevaricating, wringing your hands, and overthinking it, Maruco.....and just follow me in again.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 21st October 2020 at 9:42 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  2. #42
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    719
    Thanks
    35
    Thanked 115 Times in 97 Posts
    As much as I like Unexpected as a chaser its frustrating to see him leaving a hurdle mark of 137 to pursue the bigger obstacles. I had him 10lbs well in and thought this would have been exploited by the green and gold.That said maybe they rate him so highly there hand has been played for them. I have also taken the 20,s but hendersons horse will be a tough nut to crack

  3. #43
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,749
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by frontrunner View Post
    As much as I like Unexpected as a chaser its frustrating to see him leaving a hurdle mark of 137 to pursue the bigger obstacles. I had him 10lbs well in and thought this would have been exploited by the green and gold.That said maybe they rate him so highly there hand has been played for them. I have also taken the 20,s but hendersons horse will be a tough nut to crack
    That's an interesting thought Brian. Might they go back for the County at Cheltenham if there's nothing left in his chase mark and they see him as being short of what it takes to win an Arkle.

    The only think is can the English handicapper retrospectively look at his hurdle mark based on his new chase mark? I think he can. He's a JP horse though so I'm sure there'll be a plan!
    Last edited by Maruco; 21st October 2020 at 1:47 PM.

  4. #44
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,749
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Insofar as Cheltenham is concerned, connections had Saint Roi for the County Hurdle, which would have left the Conditionals Handicap as their only other Festival option (and Front View was their fancy for that race).

    Add the subsequent loss of Aintree and Punchestown, and the fact he’s bred to be a chaser, and maybe it was an easy decision to put him away for a novice-chase campaign, after disappointing at Leopardstown (where quicker ground might have been a factor).

    You need to stop prevaricating, wringing your hands, and overthinking it, Maruco.....and just follow me in again.
    That's probably fair enough Nick. Not high enough in the pecking order and not wanting to waste his hurdles mark. But as Brian points out you'd have thought they'd look to exploit it this season.

  5. #45
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,891
    Thanks
    84
    Thanked 318 Times in 204 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    That's probably fair enough Nick. Not high enough in the pecking order and not wanting to waste his hurdles mark. But as Brian points out you'd have thought they'd look to exploit it this season.
    He was definitely fancied for the Supreme when winning his debut. Largely as WPM didnt have anything else obviously lined up for the race at the time. Didnt waste time putting him over fences.

  6. #46
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    I'd love to hear why his form dipped so quickly and he wasn't considered for the Festival last season. Something wasn't quite right with his campaign, so that explanation is the key to whether he could be top class and is one to get onside, or alternatively that it's more likely he'll fall short when he meets the best horses around.

    Anyone heard anything about what issues he might have had if any? It could be as simple as he struggles to stand up to Willie's training regime or doesn't come out of his races well. But I'd rather hear there was something specific and he's over it now.
    I think they likely knew he was above average

    Won his maiden, losing at Limerick probably convinced them he wasnt ready to be a graded horse and he ran in the big handicap in Feb

    Stable and owner had another even better in for Cheltenham (who stays hurdling) and it's likely he was put away for a spring festival

    He had a very impressive start to chasing yesterday where he made all the decsions for Mark Walsh

    The only concern I would have is that looking at how he travelled yesterday, he will like Winter ground rather than Spring
    Last edited by granger; 21st October 2020 at 5:12 PM.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  7. #47
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Great Field had high-class form on quicker going, so possibly the Leopardstown run was just one of them things, and Unexcepted will prove equally as versatile as regards the ground.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  8. #48
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Bristol
    Posts
    1,363
    Thanks
    151
    Thanked 165 Times in 149 Posts
    Diol Ker goes tomorrow. 3/1 looks potentially very, very generous given his competition when you look back at him beating Monkfish.

  9. #49
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    2,053
    Thanks
    392
    Thanked 355 Times in 269 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Bonjers View Post
    Diol Ker goes tomorrow. 3/1 looks potentially very, very generous given his competition when you look back at him beating Monkfish.
    6/5 not so good for a horse that's been wrapped in cotton wool so far!....should make a good spectacle though...

  10. #50
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    The tizzard horse Kauto the King made a fine fencing debut at Wincanton earlier
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  11. #51
    Senior Member Grey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    9,397
    Thanks
    882
    Thanked 912 Times in 550 Posts
    Indeed, and a good looking horse too

  12. #52
    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Thames Valley
    Posts
    2,646
    Thanks
    502
    Thanked 614 Times in 372 Posts
    Latest Exhibition v Longhouse Poet tomorrow at Punchestown should be interesting and hopinging the Nolan horse is as good or better over a fence as he was over hurdles. Can’t back him at odds-on and if getting involved it will have to be Run Wild Fred ew, as he’ll definitely come on for his Limerick debut where he jumped fine and just got tired

  13. #53
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Bristol
    Posts
    1,363
    Thanks
    151
    Thanked 165 Times in 149 Posts
    With you there, Perp - he looks like a stonking ew bet.

  14. #54
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    I like Opposites Attract against the front two.

    Has some form with the smart Francin, who I’d backed ante-post in a handful of Festival races (typically missed him winning at Navan the same week) and I’d have him a lot closer to Longhouse Poet than hurdle ratings would suggest.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  15. #55
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    Good race indeed folks

    One to see who looks beefy in the parade ring
    I do have in my notes that LP is a hoss that will win a race at a big price - hopefully not today mind
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  16. #56
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    Jumped to the left a bit but fine for a start

    Will need further

    Liked his last stride, more to come
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  17. #57
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Cheltenham
    Posts
    3,687
    Thanks
    346
    Thanked 379 Times in 314 Posts
    Paul Nolan deserves another good one.

  18. #58
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    I'm not sure if he still qualifies as a novice, but still looking forward to seeing Global Citizen possibly run in the Haldon Cup at Exeter this Tuesday.

    He ran with credit in the Arkle when out running odds of 33/1 by finishing fourth, while before that beating the promising Rouge Vif at Kempton off level weights on what was only his second start over fences.

    Global Citizen one to watch this season, imho.

    I couldn't be sure what his targets will be though, assuming he stays over 2 miles.
    Last edited by Marb; 31st October 2020 at 9:41 PM.

  19. #59
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,749
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    I think Global Citizen wants a flat track to be at his best Martin. Although it’s all relative to the opposition. He is definitely better going right handed, so half his criteria is satisfied at Exeter. My issue with him though is a Ben Pauling’s form. His whole string look a bit flat at the moment. I’ll wait for the final decs to decide on a selection I think. If Pauling’s form improves I’ll be all over Global Citizen like a rash at Kempton over Christmas.
    Last edited by Maruco; 1st November 2020 at 11:46 AM.

  20. #60
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    I just happened to be browsing about this morning and came across Simon Rowlands's latest sectional analysis item at the ATR site. The closing paragraphs were of particular interest as they looked at the 2m Chses at Cheltenham last week:

    https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sec...ham-contenders

    His thinking regarding Fusil Raffles very much reflects my own MO with ante-post betting: when I come across something that in the course of a season puts up a performance that would win at least an average renewal of a festival race I usually get involved ante-post at the time, more so once the NRNB and/or BOGs kick in.

    Shishkin is obviously the most likely winner at this stage considering he's being talked of in the same awed tones as Altior but if Fusil Raffles already has a figure that would put him in the mix it's entirely possible he'll improve again by March.

    At 16/1 he seems a reasonable each-way pop at this stage.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •